SPY closed above the cloud but has 0 momentum, expect it to dwopLooking dicey here. This looks like its about to be the mother of all consolidations. Going to be hard to tell if its going to gap up or down.
Thetagang
$VET nice VCP with bullish sweepsNice technical set up and bullish PUT sweeps at the bid to support, interesting one trader opened 12/16 22.5 puts for about 310K in premium.... stock is trading at 21.95 implying strong upside move .
For the more conservative, can wait for pennant / triangle breakout to go long / short, depending on direction.
My bias is to the upside and am long here with a stop being close outside of triangle with confirmation.
Almost forgot, that MACD is looking juicy as well : )
Bulls saying "muh pump" check OBV n FibIts gonna hit this fib and the obv trendline and then probably dump. Of course if it breaks trend I'll be the first to hop on too, but no reason to without confirmation (besides pure speculation you degenerate gamblers).
DIA 320/315 Put Credit Spread - March 18th ExpiryDIA - The index ETF I like to trade but never gives me liquidity haha.
Fill: 0.544 Fill (after comm)
Strikes: 320 short - 315 Long
Max Loss: 500-54 = 445
Short leg delta': 0.16
Reasoning:
1. White lines identified support/resistance zones
2. 10% return on margin and 16 delta short leg was below these zones and provided additional margin of error
Simple trade with simple management - 50% take profit or -200% stop loss
Questions, Comments, Leave them below!
IWM 185/180 March 16 Put Credit SpreadTrade Credit: $0.55 = 11% Return on Margin
Max Loss = 500 - 55 = $445
Strikes - Short 185 / Long 180
This morning I realized that I need to get more capital deployed based off of my trading plan (something I hope everyone has!) As such I went looking for trades, and today is not a bad day to enter trades.
Reasoning is below!
1. Recent red days = Increased IV and increased Put prices (although this is slight reduced due to a large green morning)
2. Still bumping around in the trading range outlined by the white support and resistance lines
3. Todays green move up is above the prior two days candles move, and is the beginning of a confirmation of a possible move to the top of the range. If we are headed there, this trade will hit its take profit much earlier than expiration.
I always try and keep these trades less than 30 DTE for 2 reasons:
1. it makes calculating expected return per month easier
2. Decay really ramps up after <45DTE and this just grows faster and faster. Ideally these trades are closed prior to <21DTE though as this is when other greeks can begin to bite you such as gamma.
Questions. Comments? Put em below!
QQQ 336/332 Put Spread (Mar 7)This was an order that I had input this morning when going through the my broad market charts. Reasoning is below:
1. Clear support at 352.75 (White line)
2. Long term bullishness on equities, especially if inflation continues. Caveat to this is that with rising rates I do think Tech will feel the pain more than other names. As such this position is 1/2 my usual size.
3. Yellow line (338) identified as recent low, and middle of a lower trading range from Apr / May.
Yellow line then acts as target for the short leg. I.e if I take this trade, the short leg must be below this.
As such, I found the 336/332 spread that paid 10% Return on Margin (or risk) and was below my target.
Set the order this morning and it filled a few minutes ago as the market came down a bit.
Questions, Comments, Leave em below!
INTC said F my short 47/Feb18sI despise "analyst" predictions.
1. They are never reliable
2. They serve institutionals
3. They are a bunch of money-grubbing, bottom-feeding, baby-backed bitches
SPY 400/394 Put Credit Spread - March 21 ExpiryFill: 0.54 Credit
Strikes: 400/395
Max Risk: 500-54 = 446
This was an order that I had been sitting on all day, trying to hold myself back from reducing my target price. Ill be honest, I liked these strikes so I wanted the trade.
Reasoning:
1. Large move down today, attacking prior lows - This is jumping the gun a bit as I usually wait for some confirmation of an upward movement, but as I mentioned I liked the strikes and the 10% Margin of error on the SPY, something I dont get often with my trades unless IV is high.
2. Yellow line is the lowest we have seen in 2022, and this still provides a 5% cushion from there as well.
3. Capital Deployment - I have been sitting on my hands alot recently, but I need to get trades out there. The reality is that I have built in risk management into my strategy and taken this risk into account when I project yearly returns, this is great to do, but means that if I do not deploy the amount of capital that I plan to, I dont hit returns because there is already a loss cushion built in. Currently around 20% deployed, and I should be at 34% as per my trading plan.
Questions? Comments? Leave them below!
XLP 73/70 Mar 18 Put Credit SpreadThis idea is a little out of the norm for me. I generally stick to broad market, but from time to time I play sectors.
Credit Received: 0.36 or $36 / contract
Strikes: Short 73 Long 70
Max Loss: 300-36 = $264 per contract
Short Leg Delta: 30 Delta (more on this below)
Trade Reasoning:
1. Market is being beat up by both the Ukraine - Russia situation and inflation, if both continue to worsen I believe consumer staples (what XLP tracks) will outperform the rest of the market.
2. White line presents a possible support level above my short strike here - Check!
3. Renko Overlay indicator from www.tradingview.com is a new addition to my chart, and it showed another decent support level (see picture below), this is represented by the yellow dashed line.
12% Return on risk - Less than 30 DTE - TP at 50% - SL at -200%
Notes:
1. Delta is almost 2x what I normally shoot for (16 delta normal short target), however with these sector ETFs there is often wide spreads, little volume and somewhat crappy IV as well. As such, beggars can't be choosers.
2. Average True Range - ATR on this thing is piddly, so I felt more comfortable going closer to the money here.
3. Renko has been something that I have played with in the past, but I found it left out TOO much info. As such this overlay option from /u/LonesomeTheBlue is a very welcome addition.
SPY 410/405 March 4th - Put Credit SpreadTrade Credit: $0.56 = 11.2% Return on Margin
Max Loss = 500 - 56 = $444
Strikes - Short 410 / Long 405
Reasoning:
1. Large friday afternoon drop, which I believe is somewhat expected due to the good week we have been having.
2. White lines indicate the current trading range A.K.A Support and Resistance
3. Yellow Dotted line = Recently low and becomes a MUST for me to be below in order to take this trade.
410/405 Pays >10% return on margin and is below the recent low, so I took the trade.
Usual management is 50% take profit or -200% Stop loss. Given that I entered this on a downward move, I went half size and may add additional positions later if the RoM (return on Margin stands).
Questions? Comments? Leave em below!
IWM 180/175 SpreadThis idea is related to my earlier idea. Check it out there for logic as the logic for this trade was essentially the same. In addition to the logic:
1. The return profile was there 10% Return on Margin
2. Appropriate Delta
3. Lovely Cushion / Level for the trade.
See linked idea for technical logic
IWM 184/179 Mar 4th Put SpreadTrade entered today based on my thinking that
1. This is our second green bar in a row, and I believe that either we have found a new range in the 190-200 range or we are headed back up. Which leads me to point number two
2. If we are in fact in a range then the 184 short strike is outside of that range and then some, providing a decent margin of error.
184 was also the 16 delta short strike at the time, and met the return metrics for the trade (10% return on margin required - AKA Max loss). The plan will remain with these trades to close at -200% or take profit at +50%.
Fill on these was -0.57 on average after commissions.
That is it, mechanical and S/R based. Sorry there isnt more secret sauce!
IWM 195/190 Put Credit SpreadSimple trade idea here. 1 month out, >10% RoM (Return on Margin) This one was filled at 0.55 credit, allowing for commissions on the way out to be covered and keep the 10% return.
I did not love that this was moving downwards still, but we are near the bottom of the range and this trade gives us 8% or so of room. Management rules will still apply. close at 50% profit, or -200% of credit received.
11/8 Weekly Earnings Calendar Spreads (SYY, DHI, CAH, DIS)Description:
Some potentially attractive Calendar Spreads I'm looking at putting on based off of the close on Friday.
CAH looking especially attractive.
Announced Earnings Dates
SYY 11/9
DHI 11/9
CAH 11/9
DIS 11/10
Long Call Calendar Spread
Levels, break-evens, and R/R will be updated when positions are filled.
The boxes on the charts right now are the profit ranges at expiration for ATM Calls
You could always spread the puts instead of the calls if you want a slight bearish bias on the stock post earnings.
Criteria to enter:
At least 4:1 R/R, measured from max profit to debit required to enter.
Break-evens outside the expected move
Intend to close directly following earnings.
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
Only invest what you are willing to lose
Break-evens and R/R vary on fill
$NKE Looking oversoldI like the idea of the 145/140P credit spread here. $1.45 credit for the 11/19 opex
30-45 days or more until expiration would capture the most premium vs. theta decay (sweet spot per Tasty Trades).
You could go long naked : ) higher risk idea . I don't have conviction on how high and quickly Nike will rebound so I like the spread trade idea here
Best price you will ever get $THETA - Samsung Partnership - BUY$THETA has been climbing recently and for very good reason (Samsung Deal).
This is probably the best project we have ever seen come from the crypto space.
It has a little bit of a pullback they we likely never to see again at this price.
The TA clearly shows us it's trying to breakout again here with the MACD and RSI looking very good.
It will most likely bounce off the trend line here pictured and we'll never see the $6 range ever again.
WATCH VIDEO: Here is the Samsung - THETA video: www.youtube.com
THETA: www.thetatoken.org
Bitcoin Retraces to 6000 LevelBitcoin was testing its prior resistance. My chart shows it topped out at 6750 and retraced 16 blocks to the right ($50 blocks) Good time to buy!
BTC Short StrangleShort 1/31 8500 Call
+.25 Delta
+.0280 Credit
Short 1/31 6000 Put
-.20 Delta
+.0265 Credit
Margin Requirement: .2 BTC
Credit Received: .0545 BTC
Profit Target: .02725 BTC
Expected Move: +/- $1200
End up with a slightly short portfolio delta, essentially delta neutral.
Generate over $10 daily positive theta.
Look to close at 50% max profit (credit received).
Manage at 21 DTE.
Becky Is Back -- SBUX ST DEC 6 gambleMeet some half strangers at a round table for coffee over the holidays. The people from high school who you are trying to avoid but cant seem to miss when you return home.. Where to meet? SBUX.
They announced some Irish cream drink today; makes your mouth water saying it... too bad I dont buy the overpriced drinks myself!
I took a weekly neutral/bullish position on SBUX via a put credit spread at the 84.5 and 84 strikes for a credit of .2 for the DEC 6 Strike
PoP was .6636 Kelly says max weighting of 15%
I used a weighting of 5%
GL HF
xoxo
snoop
