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BTCUSD: Bitcoin Update and Key Trade Points this weekBitcoin Update 24th July 09:42 Bst 04:42 Est The break higher duly came at the rather strange hour of 05:00 Bst and midnight Est. Volume has been quite high though not spectacular. Not much follow through in London though. It's the first time Bitcoin has made such a small surge following a break-out higher and it hasn't reached any clear resistance level either. The rally is a little spooky so far, lacking real intent. The long shot from 7800 is going OK but not great so far. Raising the stop to 7924 for now and hoping it won't get taken before more buyers appear. Last Bitcoin Update 23rd July 15:23 Bst 10:23 Est ...Bitcoin had to break above 7350-7380 to follow long to 7500 minimum and ideally to 7741 where it was a sell again with a stop 20 or so above. But the call was ruined by raising the stop too high to 7389 - Bitcoin came back to a low at the 7347 line again then rallied to just above 7500 before falling away to retest the 7347 line once more before rallying hard to a high at 7764. In this case a stop of 25 points was needed (above the given level at 7741 here on Bitmex) to avoid getting stopped out - sorry about that. It was meant to rally over the weekend and then to come off from 7741 at tops....pretty hard too. But it hasn't, so far at least. Instead it's finding support off the uppermost parallel of the little continuation pattern it had spent most of the weekend inside....it's now outside of the pattern and using it as support. This is telling us that there is still a chance of a break to the upside from here. It's at mission critical for the bulls in this argument at this point. It's giving off mixed short term signals here - it should have met with pretty heavy rejection at 7741 through to 7800 at the uppermost parallel but so far has only been mild. Bull hopes are being faded from 7725 but not aggressively so as yet. Price action is telling us to revert to open mind-set from here....it should come off but it isn't doing, dammit. If still short suggest lowering the stop to 7725 for starters and to 7445 at lowest for rough break even if hit. Trade Points from Here if Flat Don't want to get sucked in if it can be avoided from this point but we need to be prepared for a break higher... If it comes and volume rises to back it up we could get a very good break too. It has to break above the 7780-7800 range and the uppermost parallel on Bitmex on rising volume to follow long again to 7948 initially and then 8576 and potentially back as high as 9995 on this feed over the course of this week. However, as usual, if we see a break higher but volume doesn't quickly build on its back we need to be ready to close out and then be ready to go again, depending on price action at that critical point... But if do get a break higher on volume it should be worth following it for significantly higher levels still this week. Returning to the downside a break below 7683 should force Bitcoin lower still to 7614-7610 for a small scalp at best. It's likely to bounce again from here in the near term though. It has to break below 7610 to trigger a more aggressive short back to 7347 again. * For fastest Bitcoin updates in real-time for more active traders please see link at top-left of main page
Long
by sumastardon
3
Watch out for falling objects.So here we are almost near the end of consensus 2018, and the situation is looking rather grim from my perspective. We've now had a run-up to 10k and denied, hit 9500 and denied, hit 9k and denied - now we're at 9200ish at the point of writing this and I cannot see a situation in which any of this is bullish. The market has taken multiple sustained hits and hasn't recovered an iota - the sentiment has remained bullish on the fact that I think people have made easy money for so long that they cannot envision a situation where this can get any worse and are waiting at the door for the slightest bull case. So my projection looks like thus: Scenario 1: Looking at my favorite indicator on a 6-hour scale this is going to cascade more then likely into 7800 within the next 24 hours and will begin what i believe is the panic portion of the classic bubble chart. I find trader sentiment heavily based in denial and I think this is only going to feed that trend. An inability to hold 7800-8200 means in my opinion 7500 is next. Scenario 2: (Extremely highly unlikely) Bullish, we bounce in the next 6-12 hours to revisit 9k, and then have a panic drop. I cannot see this from any point other then it fits into the lines.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Wolfofbitstreet
1
Be Aware Of THIS ScenarioBe Aware Of THIS Scenario Should we actually break down, which is very possible, then do not panic! I see that in people who act emotionally, again and again. You are selling, Bitcoin is actually going down $400-300 and you are thinking that it will fall more. After a few hours you will see that the price is back above your selling price and that's how the clever people manage to reduce your money. Mostly, you hope that the price will go down a bit more to buy at least at your retail price. What is happening? The price goes up and up until you are forced to enter emotionally, just when you are in a correction again. At my last Bitcoin idea you have seen that I am very uncertain about the current situation. The question I asked myself was: Scenario 1: Are we going up now? Scenario 2: Are we going to make a bigger correction before going up? Personally, I prefer the second scenario because it would 'kill' the longs again before it goes up. But I think that the first scenario will happen, because it looks very much like a structure I know. So, no matter what happens now, I assume that we will go up afterwards and people will be scared. The market decides. Note: I'm sorry that I upload this idea for the third time now. Had problems to show both scenarios in one idea to make it clearer.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by EWHALE
34
AAPL: Buy Opportunity on Further WeaknessApple AAPL It took 18 months for Apple to double from the low at 91.5 to a highs at 180-183 before a 16% decine to 150 (WD Gann would have loved this stock as much as GE, probably;) Like FB, Apple has closed out the week sitting on top of the structure to its left. And in classical fashion, if the 165-164 levels fail to hold from here it's then likely Apple will fall away further, to 160 initially and then, after a bounce there, back to 155 and to 150 at lowest, most likely. Look to use any further weakness here in the early part of the week as a potential near term buying opportunity
NASDAQ:AAPL
by sumastardon
1
BTCUSD Bitcoin Tread very Carefully this Weekend Coinbase Update Ripped through the lower parallel of the flag on Coinbase - now trapped in smaller parallels and finding scant support off the lower line - now an attempt for 9900-9917 line which was the last line of neartterm support here on Coinbase and 'limit-down' those with long memories back to last night may remember. This is more dying of dis-interest than outright rejection - but it's not remotely tempting to buy right now. Likely to slide away and the bears that are out and sniffing blood won't be backing away until the upper parallel is broken and then held on the retest too. Too many failed breaks now to trust them, no? Just be damn careful all day if trading this mofo - for those watching it should be better than the football (Unless lucky enough to be a Spurs or City or even, God forbid, a Li Friday, 22:29gmt Bitcoin Last Update, last night So there are 3 ways out from here tonight and into 6 am gmt/01:00est usual reversal time...Up, down and sideways on super low volume/interest either way Saturday Update 09:51gmt/04:51est Tread Carefully Today Another day and another way to 'play' Bitcoin is revealed. Last night we discussed the futures manipulation right on Wednesday night's close at 22:00gmt/17:00est - today we can discuss what appears to be an increasingly popular way of accumulating longs at the expense of weaker bulls - the 6am/1am drive-by. Spray the crowd with bullets and see who falls fastest. But the crowd is wising up to the ploy (at least we were, anyway) and if they have any sense, day traders are selling out and going flat amd more and more are just reversing short around 5.45 ready for the 6am blood-bath. The walking dead - same old same old. Groundhog day - rinse and repeat until it stops working. Last night's tentative long call from 9900 low was Ok up to 10300-10400 where first profits were taken, but the second long on breaking above the neck-line on Bitstamp feed never reached the target at 10666, making anovernight high at 10540 at 03.34 gmt before falling away due to lack of interest. Bitcoin then drifted for a couple of hours until 06:00am gmt when the world and his wife decided to exit. The only thing that went right really was the big dump at 6am. At least we should have been out, flat again or even short for the denouement/pants-down moment. Sometimes it's hard to discern if this is whales coming for the bait-ball, if we are all architects of our own devising or, like the bait-ball we move in unison for protection and this has caused today's reversal at 6am. Whatever the cause, it's getting more reliable than your old school bus. So now, having scared the pants off some, Bitcoin is back in the buy zone and trying hard to stabilise. It's moving in a continuation pattern, effectively a large a bearish flag, so far. But it has an upward bias and likely looks quite appealing to newer traders who see higher highs and lows as being bullish signals, after all that's what we're taught when we start out isn't it? And so it is, to an extent - the extent of the upper rising parallel - so it looks OK to buy the dips back to the lower smaller, rising parallels with stops under the same line and looking for a test of the upper parallel later on today to close out again. Bitcoin shouldn't turn bearish again until the lowest rising parallel is broken on downside. At that point - whenever it arrives - the rally is done. Close out longs if it happens sooner rather than later. We do not want to be trapped inside the bait-ball when the next pod of whales starts circling. We have to exit before they arrive. Is this paranoia ? Maybe. But just cos we're a little paranoid doesn't mean that there isn't someone following us. There is a time to be paranoid and a time to be gung-ho. Right now, for safety's sake, it's better to be the former. We can get over paranoia. Losing 20% is harder to bear. So this weekend we have to tread carefully - more carefully than usual. Better safe than sorry.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
5
Historical Data Experimentplease note: this is not a complete trading idea. This analysis is entirely based off historical data. Many of us know that Bitcoin has seen several major correction throughout its lifespan. The last major correction took place back in late 2013, which resulted in a 90% correction from the top. The chart above shows the percentages and ratios I collected from the 2013 crash that were then overlaid onto the recent Bitcoin chart. Creating the possible route Bitcoin could take IF it follows the 2013 path. The percentages & time frames that were collected are shown in grey. The red and green colors shows what I expect to happen based on the data. The chart below shows the percentages collected for this experiment. DISCLAIMER: Please note I am only providing my own trading information for your benefit and insight to my trading techniques, you should do your own due diligence and not take this information as a trade signal.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by oh92
6
Bitcoin BTCUSD Still Positive - Can Buy This DipBitcoin Bitfinex Chart Update 10:37gmt/05:37est Still Positive - Buy the Current Dip The big rising dynamic on Bitfinex was the best/most reliable of the 3 feeds we cover overnight and the early morning 7am gmt break out of the consolidation pattern was very precise and right down at the lower levels...so this is still giving good signals and will therefore be covering all 3 feeds again. Looking to stay long up to 11438 on this feed and close out there/just under if touched later. Day traders are likely to close out at 11240 when touched and in the meantime it can come back to 10860-10840 where it's likely to get bought again. More support building at 10627 line and off the big rising parallel below here. Whilst Bitcoin holds above this dynamic on the Bitfinex chart the overall technical picture remains positive. Bitcoin only flips back to negative if this line is lost at any point from here. Stops for swing longs can therefore be placed below the dynamic by 100 points or so.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
3
Gold: XAUUSD Look for potential top this weekGold and the Dollar XAUUSD and DXY The dollar's decline is close to finishing. Likely to be one two spots outlined below - so this is likely also to be a big week for gold, oil, and across US pairs too. Look for buy set-ups on dollar pairs and sell set-ups on gold, silver, copper and oil... As DXY tries to climb and hold above a little dynamic that underpins price from the lows,so gold is held back by a similar dynamic resistance line from the highs on the chart to left. DXY is close to changing back to positive, either from here, at 88.44 or from 87.70 at lowest. This is likely to happen this week. It means that gold also is likely to reverse from current levels, or from one last burst higher from here at best. If it's to reverse here DXY will have to break and hold above 89.53 - in so doing it will have broken key fixed resistance and the upper parallel which has controlled the current down-wave from inception and so will flip the dollar back to positive and gold back to negative again. This should be reflected by gold falling below 1341, giving the first confirmation that the trend has changed back to negative in the near term and triggering a fall back to 1306 in all likelihood. However, if 88.44 fails to hold during the course of this week it will tip the dollar into what should be one final selling climax which should culminate at around 87.70 at the extreme before DXY finds support and begins to rally again. This will carry gold to 1375 and at an extreme to a 1389 high.Look to close out remaining gold longs here, and some will consider shorting if we see this price action develop later this week - rejection spikes appearing on the 1, 2 and 4 hour charts will tend to confirm that gold is changing trend (the longer the better if looking to short here) and a break below 1341 will further confirm, triggering a short back to 1306
FX:XAUUSD
by sumastardon
1
XAUUSD and DXY - Gold top likely this weekGold Dollar XAUUSD and DXY The dollar's decline is close to finishing. Likely to be one two spots outlined below - so this is likely also to be a big week for gold, oil, and across US pairs too. Look for buy set-ups on dollar pairs and sell set-ups on gold, silver, copper and oil... As DXY tries to climb and hold above a little dynamic that underpins price from the lows,so gold is held back by a similar dynamic resistance line from the highs on the chart to left. DXY is close to changing back to positive, either from here, at 88.44 or from 87.70 at lowest. This is likely to happen this week. It means that gold also is likely to reverse from current levels, or from one last burst higher from here at best. If it's to reverse here DXY will have to break and hold above 89.53 - in so doing it will have broken key fixed resistance and the upper parallel which has controlled the current down-wave from inception and so will flip the dollar back to positive and gold back to negative again. This should be reflected by gold falling below 1341, giving the first confirmation that the trend has changed back to negative in the near term and triggering a fall back to 1306 in all likelihood. However, if 88.44 fails to hold during the course of this week it will tip the dollar into what should be one final selling climax which should culminate at around 87.70 at the extreme before DXY finds support and begins to rally again. This will carry gold to 1375 and at an extreme to a 1389 high. Look to close out remaining gold longs here, and some will consider shorting if we see this price action develop later this week.
FX:XAUUSD
by sumastardon
Bitcoin for the Weekend - Key Buy and sell LevelsBitcoin BTCUSD Bitcoin rallied to meet the previous peak prior to news of the lastest hack on Thursday night, precisely on Bitfinex chart, before falling away again. Right now it's neutral as we await the next trading signal to trigger as Bitoin moves towards the apex of the triangle and hopefully reveals its hand so we can trade off that signal when it arrives. If at any point the lower dynamic support line gives way and then 11100 breaks Bitcoin will likely turn negative and trigger a short back to 10750 at least, and if this gives way back to 10497 where it will become a buy again if touched later today. And on upside it has move up above 11230 to trigger a long with stops under 11100 - resistance levels at 11336 and at 11438 then need to be broken and only when we see this will Bitcoin begin to attract more buyers again for move up to 11646 and on up through the restsance levels above it to an upside target at 12950. It's still positive whilst above the big rising dynamic but slow and lacking interest, and hence neutral now. So we await the next signal for the next trade here, as above.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
1
BCHUSD Two Way Bet this WeekendBCHUSD Two Way Bet this Weekend BCH hangs in the balance this weekend, and will flip as Bitcoin flips - it's caught within a near term range and setting itself up for the next trade from here... Cannot short unless/until 2241 gives way in which case it's a short to 2068 and close out there (unless market is fast and there are big reds showing up and it shows no real sign of holding here) - and then if 2060 fails look to short a second time down to 1983 at least, and quite likely to 1766 where we can look to buy once more.
B
by sumastardon
3
GBPUSD: Two ways to trade this pair from hereGBPUSD Two Ways to Trade this pair right now Testing imprtant resistance from the upper parallel of the flag formation. Can be shorted with stops above the upper parallel for small loss if wrong and can also be shorted from lower down by using a break of he little speed line running under recent the lows as a trigger - looking to short on a retest of this line from the underside, once broken. This is a speccy sell, only here because the loss is small (10 pips) if wrong. And if so, and the upper parallel is broken through and held by the bulls on the retest it will be the signal to reverse, looking for quite a strong rally (not many look to be long here by shape of chart, mostly disbelievers in GBP, still left over from Brexit...the slow-witted, really slow- witted) which should take Sterling to 1.3599 minimum and 1.3633 maximum in near term. The alternative is to await the outcome of this battle, and side with the winner: one of the two dynamics will break - up or down - follow that break when it comes, on the retest, with stops above/below the dynamic once broken.
by sumastardon
1