Thungela ResourcesJSE:TGA closed above a key level today, I would like to see it stay above this level. Also, I want to see it trade above R130 for a more (peaceful) confirmation,
Thungela
UPDATE: Thungela continues it's land slide since the H&S break Unfortunately, the price did break below the H&S and Thungela showed a ton of supply and selling coming in.
This means, the target is still set to R91.93. The support at R121.50 was the last hope for the share to hold and bounce.
But now it's clear that this resource miner is in trouble.
Now let's cover the fundamentals.
Coal Prices Affecting Profit:
Thungela's profit dropped significantly due to weak coal prices. In a recent half-year report, their profit fell by 69%.
Earnings Forecast to Decline:
Analysts predict Thungela's earnings will decrease by an average of 64.3% per year over the next three years.
Dividend Instability:
The company's track record with dividends isn't very stable, which can unsettle investors.
Stock Performance:
Over the past year, Thungela's stock price decreased by 44.73%. In the last three months, it dropped by 27.43%, and in the last month, it fell by 15.66%.
Price Volatility:
Thungela's stock has shown high volatility, with an average weekly movement of 5.5%, which is higher than the industry average.
UPDATE Thungela continues its downside to R88.70 with a new H&SLarge H&S formed since since May 2022. The price broke below the neckline and since then it's been on a one way trajectory.
That was until it reached R123.96 in May 2023... THe price since then has consolidated in a sideways manner and has formed yet another Head and Shoulders.
With the price breaking below its neckline, we are seeing further signs of downside to come.
And the target remains EXACTLY at R88.70.
ABOUT THE COMPANY:
Company Background:
Thungela Resources Limited is a South African coal mining company.
Spin-Off from Anglo American:
Thungela was spun off from Anglo American Plc, a global mining company, in June 2021.
Thungela primarily focuses on coal mining operations.
The company's main products are related to coal production, including different grades of coal that are used for various purposes such as energy generation, industrial processes, and export.
UPDATE: Thungela still showing further downside to target R88.70Large H&S since May 2022 formed with the coal mining company.
It broke down in January and since then has been sliding on a gradual downtrend.
Other indicators confirmed downside to come including:
200 >21> 7 - Bearish (Red)
RSI <50 Red
The target still remains to be R88.70 and it looks like coal is still in very murky water.
ThungelaJSE:TGA back at the recent low level, not the absolute low. A break below the absolute low will send the stock towards R120/share, with a possibility of reaching R100/share.
Time will tell.
ThungelaJSE:TGA has been on a downtrend and breaking below potential support levels. The stock fell ex divi, and it's now hovering near an area of value. Without support at this level, the downward movement will continue. R120?
UPDATE: Thungela still showing strong downside to R88.70Large H&S cine May 2022
This is one of those medium investment trades, that you need to hold for a LONG period of time.
Luckily with CFDs, when you short stocks you gain interest, so it doesn't matter how long you hold.
The longer the better.
Any way, the price broke below
200 >21> 7 - Bearish (Red)
RSI <50 Red
Target remains at R88.70
Thungela This chart shows (my) JSE:TGA levels of interest, the price won't necessarily follow any of these anticipated moves.
The stock has to remain above R154 otherwise R120 becomes a possibility. It's a question of where are there any buyers that are willing to buy the shares at these levels and push the price up. Currently, the stock is trading below declining MAs, it's been like this YTD so it's not just an ex-divi thing.
On the far end there's valuation, what's the fair price for the stock/company. Nonetheless, the R40 dividend is juicy but at what price? I have no position.
TRADE UPDATE: Thungela showing more downside to R88.70 - SMCLarge H&S sine May 2022
It broke down and has been on a trajectory path downside.
Indicators are still bearish
200 >21> 7 - Bearish (Red)
RSI <50 Red
Target R88.70
SMC: We know the overall trend is down. There has been a BOS (Break of Structure) twice.
And now with the big candle there is a testing zone to see if there is buying or demand.
Once we get a break down, the price will continue on its path to R88.70.
ThungelaAs expected, JSE:TGA came with great results. >100% revenue and profit increases, and a fat dividend of R40/share. Great.
The share price is testing the previously anticipated low of near R177/share; the share price has been moving downwards since the last dividend declaration. Hopefully buyers will step in at current levels, especially dividend hunters. It won't be nice to see JSE:TGA shed R40 on ex dividend date at this level.
Will buyers step up?
UPDATE Thungela still showing medium term downside but is slowLarge H&S since May 2022 formed which gave a Medium term trade.
Since it broke down, I know it would take a longer period for the price to drop due to the size of the formation.
Remember, companies will try everything in their power to keep the price up and without a strong negative catalyst, the formation will either play out or forma another pattern in the interim.
The bias is negative until we see any upside potential.
200 >21> 7 - Bearish (Red)
RSI <50 Red
Target R88.70
ABOUT THE COMPANY
Thungela Resources is a South African coal mining company that was spun off from Anglo American in June 2021.
The name Thungela means "ignite" or "spark" in Zulu, which reflects the company's focus on providing energy to power the economy and society.
Thungela Resources operates four open-pit coal mines in South Africa's Mpumalanga province, which produce thermal coal used in power generation.
The company's mines have a combined production capacity of approximately 17 million tonnes of coal per year.
Thungela below R200JSE:TGA is now trading below R200/share. Technically, R175 is a possibility. No position.
Thungela, not looking goodHopefully JSE:TGA it does't close below this level otherwise R175 becomes a possibility.
Thungela is running out of steam - Target R88.70 Thungela has formed a Large H&S cine May 2022
The price has broken below the neckline and seems to be dropping further.
200 >21> 7 - Bearish (Red)
RSI <50 Red and has formed a Bearish divergence.
However, the price is coming down with the RSI which confirms a bear market.
Target R88.70
General info.
Thungela Resources Ltd (formed in 2020 in JHB as a spin off from AGL (Anglo American)) is a South African mining company that is focused on the production of coal.
The company's primary focus is the mining of high-quality metallurgical coal (Production of steel) and thermal coal (Generate electricity).
You'll find their main operations are located in the Witbank coalfield, which is one of the largest coal-producing regions in South Africa. The mines include the Klipspruit, Mafube and New.
Thungela weaknessLower lows, consolidation near a support level. If this level breaks, JSE:TGA might touch R211/share.
ThungelaJSE:TGA Lower highs. Retesting the support level in a relatively short period. Not looking good.
Thungela ResourcesJSE:TGA is back at the recent dividend announcement level. The stock is still trading above the 200MA & it's at an area of value. Will there be buyers at this level, and the impact of NYMEX:MFF1! prices?
Thungela Resources approaching an area of valueJSE:TGA is approaching an area of value. The 200 MA is near R240/share, in case there's no support at this potential support level.
Thungela new ATHFollowing the breakout & retest of the trend line, JSE:TGA has broke above the resistance level and printed a new all time high. I have a position.
Thungela resources bullish Elliot wave analysisI am currently expecting Thungela to push up to R73 area then begin to drop back to R50 before continuing up to complete these 5 waves sequence.
