Brent Crude Oil is heading towards a sweet area for a shortHello guys,
After the recent break of crude oil out of a really lengthy consolidation phase (Triangle), as anticipated we're seeing lower lows ever since.
This trending environment makes every Elliott Wave trader happier than any other time.
In the previous 14 days we've been sitting in the retracement of the recent down-move.
We're heading towards a sweet confluence area which I've marked with a tiny yellow rectangle.
As noted in the chart it has incredible confluences of all kind. From 1.272 expansion to 38.2% retracement.
This kind of setup is ranked among highest probability trade setups.
Now, as every smart trader wants to get out of a wrong setup, we're put our stops on 94.2, just above 61.8% retracement, in order to get out of this trade with minimum loss.
I've never done time predictions, but let me test my luck on this one:
I think UKOIL is going to hit 89.2 at the end of September or early in November.
My projected days are: 31st of September or 2nd, 3rd of November.
I got this time from the time cycles Brent has been going through.
The retracements have been 6 days long. Now this one is expected to be 18 days long = 3 x 6 days
I hope this setup sets as expected,
Until next time, have a profitable week.
Davood Wadi.
TIME
Future of BitcoinFibonacci numbers (blue vertical lines) and ratios (purple) applied on time.
In case of failure, we break 450, and should expect 260 (last bubbles top)
If we keep climbing up and break top resistance expect rally up to 3000 - 4000.
Infact targets like 10k for the next bubble are unreasonable.
The next bubble will be more like a last breath of the bulls,
before a major correction to around 440 (current bottom level).
A major correction is needed to balance out the
bearish divergence of the last bubble (see weekly RSI etc.)
Only then we will find ourself in a more modest uptrend with
next bubble peaking around 18k at fib number 8 at beginning of 2017.
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Fun with Fibs.Building on an idea I had while working on my previous chart (), I have found what I'll describe as a ‘Mirrored Fibonacci Sequence’ (marked by the blue & orange zones) in the time scale of Bitcoin’s price discovery. I call it ‘mirrored’ because the fibs oscillate backwards, then forwards on each consequent bubble.
The red & green zones are from observations made on a previous study (). They mark out a consistent pattern that can be observed across Bitcoin's entire price history. These red & green time frames are important as they synchronise closely with the mirrored time fibs (blue & orange). IT should be noted, the current green zone we are trading in ends on the 20th of August 2014, & if this theory holds up, should mark the very beginning of the next parabolic phase.
I’ve left my longterm trend lines in for those who might want to speculate on what price these fib time frames might offer longterm. Albeit they are not my primary focus on this chart.
Perhaps the most notable feature for me is how much larger the bubbles are when two 1.618 fib lines meet up (June 2011 & April 2013).
Credit to munkeefonix for his excellent time corrected historic Mt Gox data: For those interested the long term support is strung between $0.07 on the 14th October 2010 & $13.50 on the 13th of January 2013.
Update 19th August 2014
The current timefib we are now in is just on 3 days off completion. I originally calculated the 20th of August as the day price will reach base camp, using the daily chart. But after fine tuning the scales on the 2hr chart back from the the November 2013 ATH I've recalculated the 22nd of August 2014 as D-Day. That said, going back over previous bubbles the margin of error is as much as a week! So any time between now & end of August is good time to pitch the tents at base camp. I think the answer to the question of 'when' this market makes it's way to the next parabolic phase will boil down to two things: Whether a highly capitalised minority still believe Bitcoin has the potential to put in a new all time high. And whether that minority lie in wait, fearful that other highly capitalised individuals will take the first mover advantage from them. In my opinion we still have the time & price range for another leg down. That might even allow the price to put in a highly pivotal H&S reversal. Popcorn at the ready, I'm going to enjoy the show :)
[ SIDEWAYS ] - Fibchannel + Timefibs
Carefully adjusted fibchannel and timefibs.
Allignments of price and fib channel are marked by yellow lines (scale out to see more allignments)
0.618 - 0.764 time fibs mark a potential breakout area.
Next weeks I expect moves within the red diagonals, less volatility, smaller trend angles on downmoves, short: sideways.
So moon rally likely to start in august.
Yin & YangCheck this out guys ! the mean for this cycle is around 608. thats where the triangle is closing. also price rendered around the same area above and bellow the mean. also price fell bellow the mean exactly at the halftime of the triangle ! isn't this stuff fascinating :O alltogether this "means" xD that something big is going to happen on or maybe before the 9th of july . I expect price to shoot up : ]
Triangle intersected by time fibsAnnotations on the chart. Due to the fact that such triangles often breakout after 75% - 80% completion, the 0.764 fib seems to fit great. Also the month of July will then mark the beginning of a new cycle with a rally up to 6000 (10 times the value before rally starts, so around 600)