BankNifty Crash Is Coming?Oh my my... Hey BankNifty, are we standing on the cliff right now??? Why my bar color is red when you are closing at All Time High?
Let's understand
[Before you read, Please Note: I use 2Day timeframe charts mostly ]
If I am not wrong, Bank nifty index is outperforming entire world right now. I see it is the only index that closed at ATH today, 14th Dec 2022. I am taking about major Indices here :).
So why on this mother earth, I am looking skeptically on this rally, where everyone looks greedy about this index going higher n higher.
Although let me make my stand clear here, I am actually long on this index since 20th Oct 2022. Now that I am in handsome profits, I have to work with my exit strategy to trail my SL for this trade.
Now let's understand where I am coming from. Over the years I have studied market trends and my focus was always on finding when markets would change their trend. And it's always observed that before market changes their ongoing trend, it usually tends to take small pause for few days before starting mark down journey.
So based on Rate of change theory, I create a simple indicator that helps me understand the markets larger trend.
What do I mean by larger trend? .... market on short term time frame can be lot of noisy in terms of trend so bars or candle colors creates confusion in our innocent mind. So, to remove this confusion indicatory simply decides bar color based on the strength of trend. Simply I would say Green is Bullish and Red is bearish.
Today BankNifty closed at ATH (All Time High) though the bar color indicator suggests me that there is high chance of bearish ness is on the horizon. This typical situation occurred few times in the past where BankNifty is at ATH or with 2% range of ATH. I am highlighting two situations when bank nifty made ATH only to fall for next 85 days. First occurred in Jan 2013 and 2nd in Jan 2020 days before covid crash. And we are near the same time zone of the year where not just for these 2 years but for all major falls started in January of those respective years.
Isn't this surprisingly interesting?
And if you observe time cycle closely you will understand that whenever there is major fall occurs in the market it usually lasts for 85 days and that is where the bottom is made for the mark down rally.
I always try to improve my observations, do you?
Thank you for ready and wish you successful trading journey,
Yogesh
Timecycle
Time Cycle of NasdaqWhat is time cycle ?
Cycles are derived from the High and Low of the price structure, they are cyclic in nature. It follows the pattern, Changes with time. Cycle analysis should be used in conjunction with other aspects of technical analysis to anticipate turning points.
Fibonacci pullback found to be 0.618 on previous two instances.
It depicts pullback trade, with upside of 13.50% over next 10 weeks.
Bitcoin’s Rising Bullish Channel Caps Downside at $20,000The broad technical picture depicts Bitcoin (BTC) as trading within a rising bullish channel that supports the chances of continuing to move to the upside. Since the June 18 low, Bitcoin has demonstrated a price action pattern operating on a 12-day cycle, which calls for mid-August to be another intermediate bottom.
Ascending Channel
Starting with June 18 low, Bitcoin's entire price action structure can be framed within an ascending channel pattern, which is a bullish signal. As long as the BTC price remains within the ascending channel, the upside and the downside are capped at $25,500 and $20,000, respectively.
12-Day Cycle
While cycles are never intended to pinpoint tops and bottoms with 100%, the 12-day BTC cycle has an almost perfect symmetry, since it can be found between two highs and between two lows.
The first 12-day high-to-high cycle can be measured from the June 26 high through the July 8 high. Moving forward with each subsequent BTC swing high point, we can note that in the near term, the cycle has started to shrink slightly. The distance between the last two BTC highs is only 10 days.
However, the 12-day low-to-low cycle is more important because it can signal when we can expect the next swing low. The target date of the 12-day cycle low is August 17.
Looking forward: The middle of the channel, around the $22,000 mark, can provide short-term support. But what's more important is for the daily RSI to hold above the 50 mid-level or, even more critical, above the RSI trendline. An RSI break below the trendline can jeopardize the bullish case scenario.
BTC time Cycle Anylsis. Here is The Time Cycle of BTC. And According to my my New Study on Time Cycle BTC Respect Perfectly Time Cycle.
It Means If We Have Confirmed the Lower High.(There are 4 Candels after LH). Then now We Are Going To Print On Chart Lower Low Or Higher Low. In Simple Words IF we Stay down From 32405 next Days. And The Next Date When We have The Next LL or LH. Is Between 06.06.2022 and 08.06.2022. And Just after that we can See The Movement to up Side.
So if BTC dont Cross 32405 up. Then New Lower High Can make Above 25420. And If It Cross down Then the Next Level is 18270 according to Last Move. And If BTC cross Next Week 32405 up side. Then this Scenario will Be Invalidate. And We Go To Make an Higher High. And That will Be On The Fibbonacci Level 38. Lets See…..
I am Not A Financial Adviser. And This Is not A Financial Advice. And All Cherts Are Just My Study. So Please Do Your Own Search before open Any Trade.
Aprox. All Crypto Currencies are Correlated to BTC . So If There is a Big Dump in BTC . All alt coin go down with it. Without Respecting any Technical Analysis
If You Like My Work Just Come and Join Me.
Not A Financial Advice
Ethereum May Pivot 2022🐇 Follow the white rabit.
🐇 Be on the lookout for the p = √ time : cycle pivot around March 2nd 2022.
🐇 Sooner or later you’re going to realize, there’s a difference between knowing the path and walking the path. Choice is an illusion created between those with power and those without.
🐇 The answer is out there, and it’s looking for you, and it will find you if you want it to.
🐇 The most fundamental exercise is self-observation, which is the catalyst for inner change, it will give self-knowledge and a clear mind and perception. Without it, the attempt to reach enlightenment and awaken consciousness is destined to fail.
LONG 2460 TARGET 4K and aboveare you aware of the 60 days dump cycle? if not google it or tweet, or just open your chart put up a daily time frame or weekly, you will notice that on average there's a 60 dump cycle on crypto. So what now? THAT CYCLE ENDS THIS WEEK AND MY BET IS THIS MIGHT BE A LOCAL BOTTOM. I'm not talking about capitulation which might happen between april and may, remember the sell in may say? So howw do we play this ?
First price is trading above 4hr pivot and 5 hr pivot , in in 2h we'll have the us open. I assulme that you have enough funds to play this so enter now 2 eth position size with stoploss around 1950. I know it's quite a huge stoploss but you have to play it safe. keep that stoploss until 6pm france time could be if we're still trading above pivot you will put your stoploss , i will update about it. so the play is long now but not much just 2 eth, then you'll add on the position in 4 hours;
remember risk managment is key; it's one hing guessing direction, almost everyone does, but actually trading the direction is another pair of shoes; my idea is to run the position up to 20 eth position size but i'll go slow and keep adjusting the stoploss , for now let's start small and go with 2 eth before us open
Time is price and price is time. Bitcoin wave up is in Q2 2022.Through my trading career I've noticed that ratios play a big role you can find patterns that repeat overtime. Whether it's Fib levels, time ratio, fractals - I am always in the hunt for a pattern that repeats.
I find post 2019 PA different to what was before and for that reason I will focus on data from this cycle as opposed to previous ones.
Legend:
Green Box = Impulsive wave to the upside
Yellow Box = Bullish consolidation/Accumulation
Red Box = Corrective wave/unlike Yellow Box, we have a change in market structure scoring lower lows and lower highs
White Box = Combined Time Spent (Impulsive wave up + Correction wave)
Essentially, in this chart my thesis is that each wave up has a corrective move/bullish consolidation wave. They both form a White Box, which is the combined time spent of both waves. We find that another wave up is needed when the days spent in the green box are at 0.236 Ratio of days spent overall.
Example: Apr-Jun 2019 - Green Box (Impulse up) = 85 days, Red Box(corrective wave) = 261 days or 346 days all together. Time spent in the Green Box is 85 / 346 or very close to the 0.236 Fibonacci level. We can find the same pattern repeat between March - Oct 2020 and with the current market structure.
Yellow box, unlike the Red Box does NOT have a change in market structure, e.g. lower lows and lower highs. It's a period of lower volatility (cooling off), when price takes time to recover before another leg up. This is actually bullish as nothing can move forever to the upside.
As stated in my previous ideas, I believe we are consolidating before a final blow off top starting from Q2 2022.
BTC HTF LOG + Fib TimeThought this was an interesting view of BTC in HTF on Log with a Fib time that appears to line up nicely.
Based on current PA, don't believe it will hit bottom of the channel. However, $20K-$23K level is looking potentially ripe for a bottom, before another parabolic move upwards for ATH over long term.
Would prefer BTC to move down sooner than later. This to me would indicate a stronger long-term bullish market, imo.
AUDUSD Weekly Analysis >>> Prepare for The Strong BearishAUDUSD made a small sideways movement, may be a ABC Corrective Wave in Elliot Theory , AUDUSD will continue it downside movement after finish it's correction and break the support level
My forecast , AUDUSD will be bearish to minimum 0.71100
High Potential for AUDUSD to break the yellow support level and bearish to around 0.70200
The Fibonacci ratio show it's cluster at 0.786, 1.272, 1.618, 1.414, and 0.618 will be the turning point area
With time geometry , we see that price probably make a turning point around November 30th 10:00 UTC marked with the blue vertical line 2.5 Fibonacci Time Zone
AUDUSD Heading to A Strong Cluster : Buy SignalSIGNAL FOR TODAY
BUY >>> 0.72724
STOP LOSS >>> 0.72220
TARGET 1 >>> 0.73940
TARGET 2 >>> 0.74821
TARGET 3 >>> 0.75630
Disclaimer On, Trade at your own risk !
Buy Signal is NOT a Buy Limit Order, but a Buy Stop Order , because we need to wait and see the market action after touching the target cluster area...
Buy Stop Signal may be changed or even canceled later, if price doesn't move like our trading plan
We never take sides of one market direction, follow what big guys want to do, "Forecast can be wrong, Trades must Win"
Use a proper risk management, my trade had about 81% win rate
TIME GEOMETRY ANALYSIS :
Price may make a Lower Low and a pivot point to prevent a changing direction of bearish trend on 14th November 2021, consider from the latest extreme pivot, we calculate the time support that most likely to affect the market using Square of Nine and Gann Cycle
BITCOIN TIME CYCLE OF THE MARKET I know, probably you came here to tell me ''this is not gonna work bro'' but yeah, thank you :D
Before starting, i had try so many time and possibilities to create this graphic. It is kinda complicated. But let me clarify little bit for you. This is a time cycle analysis for Bitcoin. I have used cyclic lines, time cycles and sine lines from different points. The purple arrow represents tops and bottoms of the time cycle tool. The yellow arrow represents tops and bottoms of the sine wave. You can see the market swings when the time has come. Not everytime, but this analysis is good enough to have a time vision of the market to see how stuffs is going. I have so many analysis like that. If you like this post, i can share others too. Have a nice day :S
Fractal example
its like extension of a simple base pattern spreadig by the rule of butterfly effects
with considering of crypto market atmosphere and 2 ex-waves "A" and "B", it would be easy to predict what's going to happen ...
zoom out to find out the orginal A ad B
you can read more about fractal and butterfly effect on my related tutorial