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$BTC vs $AMZN: What if...This is just an interesting comparison, something like this would absolutely wipe out everyone, and reset things, as far as sentiment goes, whilst giving a great opportunity to long term buyers to accumulate $BTC at really low levels, if things came to pass like they did for $AMZN back in the 2000 top. In this theoretical scenario, price would go sideways during 1 year, to then crash in a slow bleed, falling to levels only seen at the start of the rally coming out of the 2015 lows... As a result of this, and regulations, and the disappearance of all the wild leverage traders, and exchanges, maybe volatility settles down, and $BTC starts acting like a tech stock, eventually reaching prices over $1,000,000 in the next 10-15 years. Something like this would give us a great opportunity, both on the short side, and then on the long side, if things do come to pass in this manner, and would definitely frustrate a lot of people who bought into $BTC, and believes in the HODL religion. These beliefs will likely change or disappear, by the time it bottoms. Cheers, Ivan Labrie. PS: My forecast is still for a sideways 2018, and possible sideways 2019, but we could indeed get a bear market too, the rules of Time At Mode imply the long term bull market ended, and we will wither go sideways, or crash back to $442, or close to it. It seems wild now, but it is entirely possible still. Better be open to anything happening, and not biased and blinded by our greed. Shout out to Tim West, who mentioned this overlay, as something worth looking into.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
14
KSS: Getting good to buy it back againI'm watching $KSS here, I'd like to buy as close to support as possible. There's an interesting time/price juncture below, where the bottom of the uptrend's linear regression channel meets both the Key Earnings Level, as well as the uptrend speedline support, making it an ideal spot to buy. This also happens to coincide with a potential bearish range expansion failure, where today's decline would fail to validate the bearish momentum, giving way to a good buy setup. Risk a drop under $46.40-$42.40 initially, and buy a 10% position gradually during a week or two. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:KSSLong
by IvanLabrie
WST: Outrageous valuation, Time at mode signals a top is in placWe can short $WST without much difficulty here. Short at the open and risk either a new daily high, or use no stop and size the trade based on 0.5-1% exposure, considering a $4.83 risk per share. Target on chart, but, keep in mind this can evolve into a longer term downtrend here as well due to the valuation the company has up here. It's practically a bubble, once it pops it'll get ugly, and fast. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:WSTShort
by IvanLabrie
BTCCNY: Daily viewBTCCNY has a longer term uptrend, but here I'm looking at the daily linear regression channels we can draw on each swing. If you extend the lines, after a high pivot happens, you can see where price can bounce, to maintain the uptrend progress. The pink arrows show this, and the channel changes with any high pivot that is broken on retest. I think we have a chance to get action like the green pathway implies, but I'm open to a larger consolidation or even a pullback lower, so I'll react to whatever happens next. For the time being I know where to place my stop if I get a buy agains the support zone between 4953 and 5102: 4805.26. This is a weekly level though, and we also need to wait for one more week to determine if the uptrend speed is sufficient to keep this pace, else we'll see a correction for some time. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
BLong
by IvanLabrie
19
XAUUSD: 2-month downtrend analysisThe 2-month bars in gold show a very clear downtrend, and its dynamics. The 'Time at mode' technique shows us that bears drove the price down, after a distribution period of 16 months at the top, followed by a very sharp decline, which met the prognosticated target quickly, before stalling for another 18 months. The next decline wasn't as sharp, and we noticed that when the forecasted downtrend duration had ended, a massive rally started in gold. This happened to coincide with a spike in VIX, which as Tim West points out in his Silver charts, is a bullish signal for a bottom in metals. These two signals confirmed we had a bottom in place and higher prices could be expected from there onwards. The range highlighted in orange, created a secondary downtrend signal, while the second one in red was active, which had a smaller target range than the previous one. This points out to a potential terminal wedge ending here, an Elliott Wave formation indicating a bottom. Additionally, the 9 bar decline in red, which expired right at the bottom, failed to reach its target, so, it forecasted a rally back to the mode, the most frequent price range in the distribution period leading to the decline, which already happened. Now that these signals panned out, we are left with an unclear outcome, nothing can be gleaned from this timeframe, other than looking at the price ranges on the advance, which have become smaller, failing to confirm the momentum of the first big range bar at the bottom. To break the resistance zone between 1270 and 1322, price will have to absorb considerable supply from long term sellers, and to do that, it needs time, so my forecast here is for gold to remain sideways, possibly until hitting the uptrend or downtrend speed lines in red. We can look to play this range, following the smaller timeframe signals, like the one shared by Tim West recently, check it out in related ideas. Just don't get overexcited, expecting gold to go to 1500, cause it probably won't for at least a couple more months or more. 2 more months with prices not going under the lowest low here, would confirm the trend is now up too, but December's close would have to sit above 1263.37. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
KSS: Key Hidden Levels signalsIn this chart I describe the trading signals generated by Tim West's techniques, in particular the methods revolving around the RgMov and Key Earnings Support indicators. You can see signals that failed are very few, and the trade setups obtained in one year have been really precise if executed correctly. If you're interested in learning the specifics of this discipline, and getting information of new stocks to watch, trade setups fresh from the oven, or in private tuition or trading signals, contact me, and don't forget to stop by the KHL chatroom ( www.tradingview.com ), where me, my good friend Nick Coulby and our mentor, Tim West, usually share ideas and commentary, and new members and subscribers to the indicator pack, can discuss and ask for advice as well. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:KSS
by IvanLabrie
GBPUSD: Long at marketWe can enter longs at market in GBPUSD, and aim for the Brexit key level at 1.36599. Stop loss at 1.28772 should be adequate. Good Luck! Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com If interested in my real time whatsapp alerts and swing trading newsletter, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year. Cheers! Ivan Labrie Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask. Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Long
by IvanLabrie
2
TIF: Good long setup, great upside to be confirmed soonTIF has a bullish reversal setup, good valuation and fundamentals and a high beta. It's a very interesting stock to own, with clear relative strength, and good potential upside. We have taken the long from 62.80 today, stop at 62.03, and aiming for prices over 64.50 in the intermediate term. Rgmov shows an uptrend is active, and the RgExp volume indicator confirms today's advance nicely. If we break the earnings key level resistance above, we migh see TIF trading close to 70 soon. Enter longs if we break resistance, buy dips back to the 63.32 handle after moving above this zone, or enter partially at market open tomorrow if not in. You can alternatively short puts at the money for 1 month, or perhaps employ a different option strategy suitable for the current volatility levels. Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com If interested in my real time whatsapp alerts and swing trading newsletter, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year. Cheers! Ivan Labrie Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask. Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
TLong
by IvanLabrie
Silver: Monthly uptrend updateTraders, we have a very strong uptrend in monthly Silver. You can refer to my previous long term trade idea for more information. It appears we'll test the 25 low volume resistance level, we just have to maintain this pace and break the 13 month level above. The downtrend mode is the 14 month level labeled above the 25 handle, and I anticipate it might be hit in time, but it's a very long term trade. Before hitting that we will see many daily uptrends and downtrends, and maybe even a weekly or monthly consolidation, so, it'd be paramount to own physical silver and wait for it patiently. If you have paper longs from when I posted my setup, you may hold the trade and let it run. I'll update this chart from here onwards, based on the price action in the coming months. Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year. Cheers! Ivan Labrie Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask. Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance0.59% on such information.
FX:XAGUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
GBPSGD: Interesting long opportunityWe have an interesting setup in GBPSGD, look to enter longs at market open, on dips to support or if we get new highs. There is potential for the weekly uptrend to resume as well, but ideally we'd want to see price move in our favor right away. As usual, risk a max of 1-2% on this trade if you take it. Stop loss orders should be below Friday's low to be conservative. It's important to give trades just enough room to work. Good luck! Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year. Cheers! Ivan Labrie Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask. Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance0.57% on such information.
Long
by IvanLabrie
5
ALK: Potential long term long, courtesy of Nick CoulbyMy good friend Nick Coulby (@ncoulb1) has brought this stock to my attention and I think it could constitue a nice addition to a long term portfolio, with good valuation after testing a massive support level, and expanding the daily range up today. You could opt for shorting puts or going long stock, with either a 1 or a 3 ATR stop loss here, depending on your risk profile. Good luck if taking this trade and make sure to check out Nick's profile. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:ALKLong
by IvanLabrie
1
UAL: Long term long entryWe have shared this entry in the KHL chatroom. You can still enter at market, or buy dips to the key level at 45. With oil possibly topping for the year, this can be an excellent trade. Props to Tim West and his Key Hidden Levels. I've come a long way thanks to his mentoring. Leave comments if you take the trade with me here (or if you've taken any of the ones I posted before). It's a great encouragement, and can sometimes have a bigger impact than just material gratification from succesful trades, or from my customer base. Have a nice weekend! Ivan Labrie.
ULong
by IvanLabrie
4
Nikkei: Short the topThe Nikkei is showing an interesting setup. On one hand, there is a daily uptrend in place, but on the other hand, price is approaching the key area corresponding to the day when negative rates where announced by the Bank of Japan. This daily candle was followed by a higher low, which is labeled on chart as a key level, and then a heavy decline. As an interesting sidenote, this day's low and high match the extremes of the 'value area' in the volume profile, and the 50% level marks the monthly mode (regarding time spent at price) on chart for this whole range where price has been stuck since November 2015. You could go long Nikkei (or some yen pairs, like for instance EURJPY), to ride this coming leg up in risk on, but the bigger trade might be the short side once this is done. Interestingly, the Dax is the worst performer as of late, and might be the best short candidate. I'll update the chart with the short entry once we hit my target. I added the tlt, gold and hyg charts on top, and the usdjpy, Dax and S&P500 charts as an overlay to the Nikkei so you can see the interplay between them. The idea is to use the Nikkei and Yen as a barometer for the other instruments here, everything forms part of the same puzzle and we can crack the codes with some work on the patterns on chart, and knowledge of the fundamentals, news dates, and the price reaction associated to them. Happy Easter, Ivan Labrie.
FX:JPN225Short
by IvanLabrie
5
TSLA: Interesting accumulation baseI went long TSLA right before the closing bell last Friday. I'll update as soon as the market opens today. I think oil is set for a rally and this can only benefit TSLA which already looks ready to climb up from this zone to the 250+ region. The Key Earning Levels have been constructive, showing strong support holding and a series of higher lows while spending time in this consolidation, which to me looks like massive accumulation in the shadows. As an extra, the quarterly chart shows it's possible to get a new uptrend signal similar to the one that triggered back at the end of April 2013, which makes the long side a very interesting proposition. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by IvanLabrie
GBPAUD: Critical junctureGBPAUD is approaching the yearly MA, and also about to complete a downtrend signal in the daily chart. It's possible that shorts will be unwound soon, by year end, we might see a large short squeeze rally in this pair, and maybe even the opening of new institutional longs for the new quarter. I'm really interested in entering with the tightest stop possible, so I'll be monitoring this for entry on the long side. If the yearly MA were to fail to contain the decline, then GBPAUD is in very bad shape and we can expect continuation to meet my weekly downtrend targets, around 1.98 or close. For the time being this looks like a large W bottom setting up, and has more positives than negatives for longs, so I'll attemp to ride the upcoming trending leg up. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
6
MSFT: Shorting the euphoriaHere we have a very interesting short setup. The market drove price up near a very strong resistance zone, so I'm willing to take a stab at a short position in this zone. A very low risk entry, aiming for a retest of the 20 bar mode at 43.48 initially, our stop loss can be minimal, with very low probability of it being hit before our profit target is. Setup is simply technical, do your due diligence if taking this trade, you can use 1 atr above the resistance at 46.70 or a few ticks, up to you. I provide trade management cues, live updates and intermarket analysis via my collective2 page, which you can find in my profile here. Good luck, Ivan Labrie Time at Mode FX
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by IvanLabrie
6
USDCAD: Interesting patternsAdding a 22 period CCI to the chart and a 11 period moving average of highs and lows we can see how oversold USDCAD is. Right now, the next hurdle is the level at 1.30113, which if breached might lead to a repeat of the pattern we have to the left, where CCI also dipped into new momentum lows compared to the past month. I added a replica of the previous decline to illustrate the similarities. This time the global picture is different and we might see an even sharper selloff but only if Crude oil reverses more meaningfully than the last time. If we don't get a move past 1.30113 very soon, I'd be tempted to look for longs, but not yet. Verdict: Neutral, too late to short, too dangerous to go long. Regards, Ivan Labrie. Time at Mode FX
by IvanLabrie
3
Nikkei: UpdateCorrection started, as expected. We now have a bearish target in sight: 19184 by April 27th. This level and date will be a potential retracement area, or reversal, depending on how price action evolves. Considering the scale of the uptrend, I don't think this correction will end there, but we'll see. Better expand as we move forward. I am short GBPJPY, and monitoring SPX, EURJPY, AUDJPY and USDJPY for important clues about this large development. Will post updates here.
FX:JPN225Short
by IvanLabrie
14
Euro index: Weekly uptrendThis Euro index gives us a good idea of what to expect in the coming weeks. After this week, we will probably confirm a weekly uptrend signal, which should last for at least 18 daily bars, or maybe 6 weeks, and reach the targets in the chart. I'm long multiple Euro pairs, and will continue to manage the positions and scale in on every opportunity the daily and 4h charts present. Potentially a very profitable endeavor. It's great to see how time at mode timed the EXACT reversal date, and a very close price level for it. Major props to Tim West! Good luck, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
13
AUDUSD: Strong downtrend active, but for how much longer?After analyzing the vixfix spikes and 75% retracement levels, and their effects on price when retesting said levels, and contrasting these to the time at mode signals on this chart I concluded that the downtrend in the Australian dollar might be short lived, althought potentially very steep. I projected two targets on chart, as well as the different potential support levels, derived from range expansion bars, as well as vix fix spike retracements, and a linear regression of the current weekly trend. It's clear to me that for now the opportunities are to go short on retracements until the downtrend time expires, or we reach the range target at least. The dollar rally, if tied to the S&P500 and the US treasury bonds rally might be short lived based on my analysis on the subject, but don't be quick to discard this trend right here. I anticipate an accelerated decline in this pair, so I'll continue to look for short opportunities while my time at mode downtrend signal is valid. Multiple time at mode and Elliott Wave signals point to a strong rally in the S&P, with positive correlation in TLT, until it peaks. I keep getting time at mode uptrend expirations by the end of August, and if the expanding terminal wedge is confirmed, the start of the US equities bear market might match with said dates. Will update this thread with audusd opportunities from now on.
A
by IvanLabrie
8