CROX - 75% loss target.This is just for fun and observation, and has absolutely no statistical background, nor any proven "anything" §8-)
So, what do we have here?
1. The pattern.
The expanding pivot pattern is very known in the trading world of the Forkers. Personally I don't use it very often in my trading to carve any decision making facts out of it.
Others I know relay heavily on it.
2.There was 75% drop in the first leg.
My thought is, that because the pattern repeats on the second leg, the drop could also repeat. Same here, no proven facts, just tinfoil.
The only point in this second 75% drop I see is, that it's near the prior low, which could be a target for short sellers.
However, let's just observe it and put our tinfoil on §8-)
Happy Sunday folks.
Tinfoil
Tin Foil Hat Time BabyWhats up Traders -
If you're waking up today and starting to get worried about the near term United States Economy .... welcome to the party.
Oil Prices are in Shambles and we're heading into a recession which will command significantly reduced Oil Demand
Gold is falling from the sky (no not literally)
The FED has lowered interest rates to zero
The FED has recently fired hundreds and hundreds of Billions at the Economy to keep it liquid - and more will be needed
Equities have fallen 30%
Monetary Policy across the globe is failing (DYOR)
What I think We should Reasonably Expect:
Unemployment to increase in the ensuing months.
Inflation was beginning to show itself naturally. Reduced Rates (post / virus panic) will only exacerbate this.
A quick and healthy Economic Recession as (likely) our best outcome.
People will begin to default on debt. Extent to be determined. Students will begin to default on student debt at increased rates.
Universities that have popped up across the country will begin to bankrupt as students run screaming away from the overpriced education system.
Corporations will begin to default on debt as we enter recession
If you dont think massive increases in Personal and Corporate Debt (relative to GDP) was a cause for the Roaring 10's .... yes the Roaring 10's .. not to be confused with the Roaring 20's bull market....Do you at least agree that it was a cause for the 1920's?
The Preferred Platitude, often for me, ' History Doesn't Repeat Itself, but it often rhymes' - Twain
I fear and plan for the worst...which the picture Im painting certainly is... I'm not predicting a depression, or WW3. . . . Im just saying, the ground on which we stand is familiar, it is shaky . . .. and we must proceed with extreme caution.
The 1930's gave birth to Extremist / Nationalist Politics.
Do you think that may be a condition of our 2020's?
Are we already seeing that with Donald Trump, the Death of the 'Establishment' and the rise in popularity of candidates like Bernie Sanders?
Do Millennials Trust in a 'Free' Market that has capsized 3 x in 20 years?
If they do, how quickly and readily does that happen?
-Nixxx
Sources:
houseofdebt.org
www.quora.com
seekingalpha.com