7 Expert Risk Management Techniques for TradingRisk management refers to the techniques used to identify, evaluate, and mitigate the potential risks associated with trading and investing. Whether you are a day trader, swing trader, or scalper, effective risk management can help you minimize losses and protect your hard earned money all while maximizing potential profits.
Let's take a look at the top 7 risk management techniques for trading! 👌
Have a Trading Plan
Many traders jump into the market without a thorough understanding of how it works and what it takes to be successful. You should have a detailed trading plan in place before making any trades. A well-designed trading plan is an essential tool for effective risk management.
A trading plan acts as a roadmap, laying out a set of guidelines/rules that can help traders avoid impulsive decisions. It is crucial because it requires you to think deeply about your approach before you begin risking real money. Having a plan can help you stay calm under stress as your plan will have specific steps to take for anything the market throws at you.
It is essential to clearly define your trading goals and objectives. Are you aiming for short-term gains or long-term wealth generation? Are you focused on a specific asset class or trading strategy? Setting specific and measurable goals helps you stay focused and evaluate your progress.
Another important part is to describe the trading strategy you will employ to enter and exit trades. This includes the types of analysis you will employ (technical, fundamental, or a combination), indicators or patterns you will rely on, and any specific rules for trade execution. Determine your risk tolerance, set appropriate position sizing rules, and establish stop-loss levels to limit potential losses.
The Risk/reward ratio
When you are planning to open a trade, you should analyze beforehand how much money you are risking in that particular trade and what the expected positive outcome is. Here is a useful chart with some examples to understand this concept:
As you can see from the data above, a trader with a higher RR (risk-reward ratio) and a low win rate can still be profitable.
Let’s examine this a little more by looking at a profitable example with a 20% success rate, a RR ratio of 1:5, and capital of $500. In this example, you would have 1 winning trade with a profit of $500. The losses on the other 4 trades would be a total of $400. So the profit would be $100.
An unprofitable RR ratio would be to risk, for example, $500 with a success rate of 20% and a risk/reward ratio of 1:1. That is, only 1 out of 5 trades would be successful. So you would make $100 in 1 winning trade but in the other 4 you would have lost a total of -$400.
As a trader, you need to find the perfect balance between how much money you’re willing to risk, the profits you’ll attempt to make, and the losses you’ll accept. This is not an easy task, but it is the foundation of risk management and the Long & Short Position Tools are essential.
You can use our 'Long Position' and 'Short Position' drawing tools in the Forecasting and measurement tools to determine this ratio.
Stop Loss/Take Profit orders
Stop Loss and Take Profit work differently depending on whether you are a day trader, swing trader or long term trader and the type of asset. The most important thing is not to deviate from your strategy as long as you have a good trading strategy. For example, one of the biggest mistakes here is to change your stop loss thinking that the losses will recover... and often they never do. The same thing happens with take profits, you may see that the asset is "going to the moon" and you decide to modify your take profit, but the thing about markets is that there are moments of overvaluation and then the price moves sharply against the last trend.
There is an alternative strategy to this, which is to use exit partials, that is closing half of your position in order to reduce the risk of your losses, or to take some profits during an outstanding run. Also remember that each asset has a different volatility, so while a stop loss of -3% is normal for a swing trading move in one asset, in other more volatile assets the stop loss would be -10%. You do not want to get caught in the middle of a regular price movement.
Finally, you can use a trailing stop, which essentially secures some profits while still having the potential to capture better performance.
Trade with TP, SL and Trailing Stop
Selection of Assets and Time intervals
Choosing the right assets involves careful consideration of various factors such as accessibility, liquidity, volatility, correlation, and your preference in terms of time zones and expertise. Each asset possesses distinct characteristics and behaviors, and understanding these nuances is vital. It is essential to conduct thorough research and analysis to identify assets that align with your trading strategy and risk appetite.
Equally important is selecting the appropriate time intervals for your trading. Time intervals refer to the duration of your trades, which can span from short-term intraday trades to long-term investments. Each time interval has its own advantages and disadvantages, depending on your trading style and objectives.
Shorter time intervals, such as minutes or hours, are often associated with more frequent trades and higher volatility. Traders who prefer these intervals are typically looking to capitalize on short-term price fluctuations and execute quick trades. Conversely, longer time intervals, such as days, weeks, or months, prove more suitable for investors and swing traders aiming to capture broader market trends and significant price movements.
Take into account factors such as your time availability for trading, risk tolerance, and preferred analysis methods. Technical traders often utilize shorter time intervals, focusing on charts, indicators, and patterns, while fundamental investors may opt for longer intervals to account for macroeconomic trends and company fundamentals.
For example, If you are a swing trader with a low knack for volatility, then you can trade in assets such as stocks or Gold and ditch highly volatile assets such as crypto.
Remember that there is no one-size-fits-all approach, and your choices should align with your trading style, goals, and risk management strategy.
Here is a chart of Tesla from the perspective of a day trader, a swing trader, and an investor:
Backtesting
Backtesting plays a crucial role in risk management by enabling traders to assess the effectiveness of their trading strategies using historical market data. It involves the application of predefined rules and indicators to past price data, allowing traders to simulate how their trading strategies would have performed in the past.
During the backtesting process, traders analyze various performance metrics of their strategies, such as profitability, risk-adjusted returns, drawdowns, and win rates. This analysis helps identify the strengths and weaknesses of the strategies, allowing traders to refine them and make necessary adjustments based on the insights gained from the backtesting results.
The primary objective of backtesting is to evaluate the profitability and feasibility of a trading strategy before implementing it in live market conditions. By utilizing historical data, traders can gain valuable insights into the potential risks and rewards associated with their strategies, enabling them to manage their risk accordingly.
However, it's important to note the limitations of backtesting. While historical data provides valuable information, it cannot guarantee future performance, as market conditions are subject to change. Market dynamics, liquidity, and unforeseen events can significantly impact the actual performance of a strategy.
There are plenty of ways to backtest a strategy. You can run a manual test using Bar Replay to trade historical market events or Paper Trading to trade real examples. Those with coding skills can create a strategy using Pine Script and run automated tests on TradingView.
Here is an example of the Moving Averages Crossover strategy using Pine Script:
Margin allocation
We are not fortune tellers, so we cannot predict how assets will be affected by sudden major events. If the worst happens to us and we have all of our capital in a particular trade, the game is over. There are classic rules such as the maximum allocation percentage of 1% per trade (e.g. in a $20,000 portfolio this means that it cannot be risked +$200 per trade). This can vary depending on your trading strategy, but it will definitely help you manage the risk in your portfolio.
Diversification and hedging
It is very important not to put all your eggs in one basket. Something you learn over the years in the financial markets is that the unexpected can always happen. Yes, you can make +1000% in one particular trade, but then you can lose everything in the next trade. One way to avoid the cold sweats of panic is to diversify and hedge. Some stock traders buy commodities that are negatively correlated with stocks, others have a portfolio of +30 stocks from different sectors with bonds and hedge their stocks during downtrends, others buy an ETF of the S&P 500 and the top 10 market cap cryptos... There are unlimited possible combinations when diversifying your portfolio. At the end of the day, the most important thing to understand is that you need to protect your capital and using the assets available to you a trader can hedge and/or diversify to avoid letting one trade ruin an entire portfolio.
Thank you for reading this idea on risk management! We hope it helps new traders plan and prepare for the long run. If you're an expert trader, we hope this was a reminder about the basics. Join the conversation and leave your comments below with your favorite risk management technique! 🙌
- TradingView Team
TIPS
Overconfidence BiasCauses of overconfidence bias
In order to define overconfidence bias, it is important to understand some of the causes. These could include:
Doubt avoidance. Very often, people don’t like moments of ambiguity or doubt. Overconfidence could work as a solution, with the overconfident person feeling confident in their abilities to feel sure, even in a situation where they should feel doubtful.
Inconsistency avoidance. A lot of the time, people search for consistency when it comes to new ideas. There is a tendency to search for a link between previously held beliefs and new ones. This may lead people to hold onto their old ideas, even if new evidence contradicts them.
The endowment effect. This phenomenon is where people overvalue things purely because they own them and could feed back into overconfidence.
Hindsight bias. Hindsight bias, the false belief that they saw something happening before it happened when they didn’t could lead to overconfidence.
Incentives. Sometimes, the higher an incentive someone has for doing something, the more determined they are to do it. This could make them believe they have made the right judgments and have the skills to get it done, even when they don’t.
Types of overconfidence bias
Overconfidence can come in various forms, including:
Illusion of control: This type of overconfidence bias refers to the belief that someone has more control over a situation than they do. In trading, it could lead to traders believing they can control the market when they can’t.
Over ranking: This refers to the belief that someone is more talented than they actually are. This is common because no one wants to believe they are below average. In trading, this could lead to traders making trades based on overly optimistic forecasts, culminating in potential losses.
Timing optimism: This is when someone incorrectly thinks they could do work far quicker than they can. This relates to trading when traders believe a trade or investment would pay off far faster than it could.
Desirability effect: Perhaps better known as wishful thinking, this is when someone thinks that something will happen just because they want it to happen.
Overconfidence bias examples
These are some hypothetical cases where trades could go wrong because traders have fallen victim to the overconfidence effect:
Believing an asset’s price will continue moving in the same direction – An example of overconfidence bias in trading is when a trader believes an asset will continue to move in a way that benefits them, despite receiving negative news or signals. Suppose a trader made a profit when going long on a contract for difference (CFD) on Amazon (AMZN) shares. They now feel confident the price will likely continue rising, leading them to hold onto the position for too long, meaning there are significant losses when its price trajectory changes.
Ignoring risk – Overconfidence could lead traders to ignore potential risks associated with an investment. For example, they may miss the risk associated with a particular sector or industry and trade it heavily. This could lead to significant losses if the sector or industry experiences a market correction.
Overtrading
Overconfidence bias could make traders believe they may make quick profits through frequent trading. They may take more risks than they should and trade too frequently, leading to high transaction costs and lower returns. Overtrading could also lead to a lack of trading discipline and increased susceptibility to making mistakes.
Failing to consider alternative viewpoints
Overconfidence bias may be linked to confirmation bias, where people seek information supporting their beliefs while ignoring information contradicting them. This could result in traders ignoring or missing important information and making decisions based on incomplete or inaccurate information, potentially leading to losses.
How to counteract overconfidence bias
There are ways people can consider if they want to overcome and counteract overconfidence bias. These could include:
Acknowledging it. Knowing that overconfidence exists could be the first step in tackling it.
Being realistic. Understanding that you do not always make the best decisions all the time could help guard against overconfidence bias.
Researching the market. Knowing that markets can do unexpected things very often could help someone understand the consequences of overconfidence.
Keeping a note of trades. A trader who records their trades could look over them, see where they went wrong, and gain a perspective that could prevent overconfidence bias.
Being diligent. Doing their research and trying to make trades based on facts rather than emotions, coupled with regularly checking and updating their trading strategies, could help stop someone from suffering overconfidence.
Conclusion
A simple overconfidence bias definition is the tendency to overestimate one’s abilities, knowledge, or judgement that could lead to excessive confidence and risk-taking and result in significant losses. Traders and investors should be aware of the different types of overconfidence and take steps to avoid them, such as seeking out diverse sources of information, avoiding making trades based on emotions, and regularly reassessing their investment strategies.
By doing so, traders could minimise the risk of overconfidence bias and make more informed trading decisions.
TIP off?Overlayed the TIP a chart with SPY (blue line). Quite clear that TIP (amongst JNK/HYG and even copper) precedes the index.
Given all previous analyses and outlook, what we would like to see is that TIP break out and above its trend line resistance, as does its VolDiv. When this happens, can expect a bullish advancement.
MACD has not yet turned to crossover, but VolDiv is already giving us a heads up tip off! < Pun not intended >
XAUUSD How to enter on the retest (tutorial)Whats up gold gang! hope you have enjoyed your weekend .. its nearly market open .. so lets get ready.
This weeks educational post is talking about the retest .. so what is a retest. When price breaks a banking level .. i normally enter on the break out .. but if i miss that .. you can wait for the retest. This is where price comes back to the level to collect more orders before shooting off in the direction of the current trend.
Wait for a wick rejection at the banking level and a bullish candle to follow .. on the hour or 30m is the best .. then you can enter on the break of the previous bullish. Make sure this is at volume time around the opens.
As anything .. it sounds simple .. but tricky to get right .. and is a lower probability set up compared to the standard breakout.
Hope this was helpful guys .. please leave a like if you did. Ill be back tonight for the open and asian outlook going into tomorrow
tommyXAU
Quick Heads-Up Hello traders, I have just placed a trade this morning on the GU, but I'm stopped out, my stop was hit. Maybe you copy the trade, and you have been stopped out too,. Don't worry, you will make your money back soon. This is inevitable in the forex business. Not only in the forex but also in any business. There will be a time for loss, and there will be a time for gain.
Stay Tuned For The Next Signal. Happy Trading
Professional, But Short, Heads-up
Are You Worried Because Of Loss?
Hello there, again. Yes, the market has proved itself right turning our trade down. Are you thinking about why the loss after my deep analysis? Don't ask yourself too many questions! All you just need now is to go back to the chart and check out what you did wrong okay?
[ b]Loss After Deep Analysis: The market Proved Itself Right
The Market Knows More Than You Know
After I have done my analysis yesterday and saw those two signals, PIN BAR COMBO, in the H4 timeframe, in the GU market, it shows that the smart money, the banks created those bars to freak you and me, the retail traders. This occasion is inevitable in forex. That's why the emphasis is laid on RISK MANAGEMENT, as there will be a time you will experience a losing streak in the market. As a professional trader, you must prepare for this situation in the forex market.
[ b]What Next Should You Do After a Loss?
Sit down. Rest. Find something to eat, then go back to the chart to reanalyze it, and be patient. Don't revenge. Don't overtrade. Don't key in the big lot size. Be composed. You shall surely get back on your feet.
Banknifty 13 Marc important level.Banknifty 13 Marc important level................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Earthquake tips SOLANA FallSolana pricing research reveals a downward trend.
The resistance level for SOL is $24.89
Support is seen at $23.50.
Recent Solana price research shows that the coin has been moving sideways over the last few days. The inverse has begun to take shape, resulting in bearish pressure. The current price of Solana is $23.61, with a small downward trend in the graph indicating that sellers currently outnumber buyers. The bearish has been in charge for the last few days, generating a headwind for the cryptocurrency.
The resistance level is $24.89, while the support level is $23.50. In terms of volume, Solana has experienced a reduction in buying momentum as well as trading activity during the last several days.
AAVE TA Runner upCrypto Altcoins
#CryptoWhale100Billion Alt Coin Analysis: AAVE
My Analysis shows that AAVE will increase to $65-$67 and return to resistance in the next few weeks. AAVE showing slow sales after the meltdown. Buyers are holding the $51-$54. Possible another down before running to $51 and back up to $65.
RSI showing a good bullish move. Small sales showing on the MACD. I'm more bullish for AAVE. W Pattern Forming.
Shoot me a message with your Technical Analysis to see your thoughts and trading strategies.
#CryptoWhale100Billion
Press The Thumbs Up and shoot me a message below what your idea on AAVE will hit.
Thank You for the support!
Below are some Previous chart links I've written in the past for Reference.
How To Use TradingView - Part 2 ⚙️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst.
In this video, we will learn How to use Tradingview - Part 2
Today we will go over:
- Indicators' Template
- Alerts
- Chart Layout
- Watchlist
- Minds
Sit back, grab a cup of coffee, and enjoy the video :D
Cheers!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
BTC Analysis and Key Levels to WatchBYBIT:BTCUSD.P
As traders, we must always start our analysis with higher-term timeframe ranges. Recently, we saw the price break to the upside, and currently, it is testing the value area low of the previous range. The horizontal fib 0.618 from the high to the current low acts as a resistance.
If we zoom in on the lower-term time frame, we can see that we are forming a range that started on Friday and continued over the weekend. A fixed range tool gives us significant levels ranging between 20700- 21250, which is almost a 4% range. This should be our main trading idea.
Yesterday, we saw a push to the downside, which touched the value area low of the range, a swing failure pattern of the previous low, and followed with a nice buyback. The price started to claim the point of control and daily VWAP, and after some consolidation near VWAP, the price started pushing toward the top of the range, where we got another swing failure. After getting accepted back from the SFP level price continues ranging.
However, sooner or later, we all know this range will break to either upside or downside. As a trader, we need levels, both to the upside to back up the bullish scenario and to the downside for the bearish scenario. At this point in time, I expect more upside price action. On the upside, we have the NSPOC (Naked Session Point of Control) level at 21725, the weekly level, the fib level 0.618, and the previous range VAH (Volume area high) level around 21827.5.
But if the price breaks to the downside, we have a little consolidation around the 18375-18850 area; we do have VAL of the previous range along with the last support area. So we can expect a reaction here. But if the momentum is strong, then we can expect lower. We have daily naked points of control at $17,725 and $17450, along with 0.618 fib level around $17,550. I will expect some reaction here.
In conclusion, it's crucial to constantly keep an eye on critical levels such as Current range volume areas and horizontal fib levels, as they can be important in determining the market's direction. Always have a plan and be prepared for bullish and bearish scenarios. Happy trading!
EURUSD Buy analysis-Congratulations everyone who made money with me. We now plot our next move as price has reached our anticipated weekly resistance.
-As we all know trading can get very boring at times. And i feel that the thrill has ended and we are about to jump into quite a boring
phase for a while.
-If you have been trading for some time, you have probably seen enough of the markets to know that there are two basic moods of the market, and these moods will be seen in any market in the world. There is the calm, drifting, directionless, choppy market as is evident in the yellow box.
- At times, the market will also exhibit strong, powerful explosions characteristic of what we have just witnessed. The market is always in one of these two moods.
-Continually, the market moves between these two states: the hyperactive trending market and the relaxed, drifting market. Just as there are low tides and high tides, hot days and cool days. Traders take advantage of these two moods in the market.
-The weekly resistance that we are on now will be the threshold by which you judge the movement of the market once again.
-I see a consolidation coming But at the same time will be looking for buy catalysts on areas of interest.