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TIPS

Treasury Inflation Protected Securities Look to be Topping OutWe have an Head and Shoulders pattern visible on the weekly and a tightening monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve; As we continue to tighten i expect that the rate of Inflation will go down and as the Rate of Inflation goes down so will the CPI and with that Treasury Inflation Protected Securities otherwise known as TIPS should lose the Value it's gained during the 2020-2022 Inflation Crisis and Long Term Treasuries should begin to Rise.
NASDAQ:VTIPShort
by RizeSenpai
10
How to create a real-time US real rate on TradingView US real rates drive everything in markets right now, and if they are going up then so is the USD, while equity will head lower – for context, the 1-month rolling correlation (assessed by value, not percentage) between US 10-yr real rates and the USDX sits at +0.94 – so there is an incredibly strong relationship. This is also true of equities, where the US real rate (we deflate the 10yr Treasury for expected inflation) holds a rolling 1-month correlation with the US500 of -0.92 and NAS100 -0.89. It sounds pedantic that one day makes a difference, but the default setting for 5 and 10yr US TIPS/real rates on TradingView, which the source a feed directly from the St Louis Fed (FRED) website – comes under the code DFII10 – as per the FRED website this, however, has a two-day lag, so the benefit to traders is reduced. We can see the breakeven component of real rates on TradingView (10-year breakeven, or the expected US inflation rate to average over the coming 10yrs – code = T10YIE) actually holds no lag, so we can now use this to create a more up-to-date US 5 & 10-year ‘real’ Treasury rate. So there work around - In the search function simply subtract T10YIE from the US 10yr Treasury (US10Y) and you can get a real-time real rate – type TVC:US10Y-FRED:T10YIE – this is the 10yr real rate, but you can change it to TVC:US05Y-FRED:T5YIE for the 5-year. Higher real rates act as the true cost of capital – they are the handbrake on economic activity that the Fed need to be more cognisant of than anything. If 10yr real rates are going to 1%, and if this relationship holds, then I think the DXY re-tests the 15 June highs, although we are seeing real support for EURUSD, and the US500 likely heads to 3400 – 3200. It's here where most see a trough in the market and where we bake in a true recession – not just a technical one, but one where we see broad-based layoffs. As it is, a recession is certainly probable, but will the economy talk itself into something far more pronounced that really impacts consumption?
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TVC:US10YEducation
by Pepperstone
8
HDFCBANK technical analysisNSE:HDFCBANK In HDFCBANK above you can see the important levels and by *auto harmonic patterns* ( cypher ). On its basis and some analysis we mentioned some targets. If * 1320 * level break then our Target 1 ------ 1300 And if upward movement remains continue then our Target 2------ 1260 If you also want to use such setup then follow the steps: 1) Go to indicator and search. Auto harmonic pattern . 2) Now go to settings and then in _style and uncheck the table. 3) Now it is ready. if Any pattern will form then will automatically show you the entry points and targets. I hope it will help you😇😇 For more such analysis stay connected with us and Checkout our new updates 🤘🤘🤘
NSE:HDFCBANKShort
by ayushkumarshivaliya
Banknifty technical analysisNSE:BANKNIFTY1! In banknifty by auto harmonic pattern we can see that if market break the resistance as u can see above. The market may retrace from target 1 and if target 1 also break then we can see a downward movement till target 2 Our mentioned targets are:. ( Which I got from auto harmonic pattern ) When banknifty below 32750 BUY PE Target 1 - 32500 Target 2 - 32000 If you also want to use such setup then follow the steps: 1) Go to indicator and search. Auto harmonic pattern. 2) Now go to settings and then in _style and uncheck the table. 3) Now it is ready. if Any pattern will form then will automatically show you the entry points and targets. I hope it will help you😇😇😇
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by ayushkumarshivaliya
ICICIBANK technical analysisNSE:ICICIBANK In ICICIBANK I used auto harmonic pattern to predict the market if u also want to use this then follow the steps: 1) open "indicator" and search "auto harmonic pattern" and click on it. 2) open "settings" and go to "style" and remove "table". 3) this indicator will automatically generate targets. And if u want to understand more then follow us and observe how we give targets and find levels:- 👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇 If it breaks downward level (* 715* ) as you can see in the chart above, then our :- Targets :-- 685 , 625. Make sure that market may retrace after achieve target. For more such information stay connected with us.🤘🤘🤘
NSE:ICICIBANK
by ayushkumarshivaliya
Leading Indicators are very BearishThe JNK ETF is heading further down with a big bearish Marubozu that is the YTD low -> Bearish for equities. The IWM ETF is also heading further down for a lower low with a bearish Marubozu engulfing -> Bearish for equities The DJT ETF ended on a recent low too -> Bearish for equities The VALUG has a bearish candle for more downside -> Bearish for equities The TIPS ETF bearish marubozu ending on a YTD low-> Bearish for equities The TLT ETF is diving -> no flight to safety, just selling. The VIX is coiling -> bearish outlook for equities, more volatility incoming when it spikes! The HG1! copper futures ended on a strong low for the week, and will be attacking support. Expect failure. Overall, very Bearish bias on equities for the next couple of weeks, and at least until the VIX spikes very hard before retracing (it is only coiling now...)
AMEX:JNKShort
by Auguraltrader
ICICIBANK technical analysisNSE:ICICIBANK In ICICIBANK I used auto harmonic pattern to predict the market if u also want to use this then follow the steps: 1) open "indicator" and search "auto harmonic pattern" and click on it. 2) open "settings" and go to "style" and remove "table". 3) this indicator will automatically generate targets. And if u want to understand more then follow us and observe how we give targets and find levels:- 👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇 If it breaks downward level (* 715* ) as you can see in the chart above, then our :- Targets :-- * 685 * ,* 625 *. Make sure that market may retrace after achieve target. For more such information stay connected with us.🤘🤘🤘
NSE:ICICIBANK
by ayushkumarshivaliya
HDFCBANK JuneNSE:HDFCBANK1! In HDFCBANK above you can see the important levels and by *auto harmonic patterns* ( cypher ). On its basis and some analysis we mentioned some targets. If * 1400 * level break then our Target 1 ------ 1420 And if upward movement remains continue then our Target 2------ 1465 And if * 1380 * level break then our Target 1 ------ 1345 Target 2 ------ 1285 Target 3 ------ 1195 I hope it will help you.👍👍👍 For more such analysis stay connected with us and Checkout our new updates 🤘🤘🤘
NSE:HDFCBANK1!
by ayushkumarshivaliya
EURUSD JUNEFX:EURUSD In EURUSD I used auto harmonic pattern to predict the market if u also want to use this then follow the steps: 1) open "indicator" and search "auto harmonic pattern" and click on it. 2) open "settings" and go to "style" and remove "table". 3) this indicator will automatically generate targets. And if u want to understand more then follow us and observe how we give targets and find levels:- 👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇 If it breaks downward levels as you can see in the chart above, then our :- Targets :--- 1.0704 , 1.0600 Make sure that market may retrace after achieve target. If market retrace from target then our :- Targets :-- 1.075 ,1.085 For more such information stay connected with us.🤘🤘🤘
by ayushkumarshivaliya
Stay alert. a few important suggestionsAMEX:SPY For a few days now I have been posting about a big drop that I expect. today I am again confirmed about that idea. As I said in previous ideas, is that we fell through the neckline of a huge Head and Shoulders Pattern. a few days ago we rose back to the previous breakout point, yesterday we tested that level and the neckline now so to speak serves as resistance, that was confirmed today. In my opinion a drop from the neckline is not unusual, so watch out. Here some important things to remember: - Try to keep your cool, and keep thinking rationally. - Make sure you have a protective Stop-Loss set up. - Be careful about adding money to a losing position. - Guessing a bottom is difficult, and can go very wrong. - Keep your emotions under control, notice you're getting frustrated? Then maybe go find some distraction, but never leave your computer until you have set a stop-loss. I can see myself that this is very standard advice, but I and many others have experienced what happens when your emotions take over. Hence, I share this anyway. Please leave in the comments if you have another suggestion on how to manage your account in these volatile times. I wish you all the best. This is not financial advice.
AMEX:SPYShort
by StijndeVries
Stay sharp in these volatile times!These are crazy times. In 2020 I started to seriously dedicate myself to becoming a profitable trader. the past few months have been very volatile. and for me as a beginner it is also very difficult to earn even a little constant results. and maybe you recognize yourself in my situation, But I have learned a lot from all this chaos ;) , and therefore I have written down a few of my own experiences that hopefully will help you to get a little more consistent results. as I say, I am no expert and this is therefore certainly not financial advice. but especially in these times I think it is nice to help each other a little and learn from each other's mistakes. 1. It's okay to not have open positions from time to time. Occasionally it can be frustrating, if you take a loss, but that's okay, hopefully you learned something from it. I now consider the current (short-term) trend to be neutral/Bearish. and I am now reading Technical Analysis of the financial markets and in that book there was a sentence that I did find reassuring: "It is during these periods of sideways market movement that technical traders experience their greatest frustration, and systems traders their greatest equity losses". Take these times to prepare yourself for a more predictable market phase. 2. Trying to predict a bottom can be dangerous. Try to wait for confirmation, or a known pattern. Take LUNA/USD as an example, luckily I didn’t had any money in this coin. But you don't want to get stuck in a long position, don't forget to set a stop loss either, and the last point actually ties into point 2 3. A well-known rule is that you should not add to a losing position. I thought I had remembered this but I did catch myself doing it at the beginning, especially in times like this it can be disastrous, usually it doesn't end well. I wish everyone the best coming times, hopefully most will achieve their goals. Keep thinking rationally and try to keep your emotions under control. I wish you all the best. Let me hear from you in the comments, I am very curious about your experience in this market. Perhaps you have a suggestion for me, I would be very happy with that. AMEX:SPY
AMEX:SPY
by StijndeVries
2
An inversed relationship There is a long running inverse relationship between gold and yields. As a non-interest bearing asset, gold becomes less attractive when yields, or real yields in-particular, go up. Using the TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) and inverting the price (price and yields are inversely related), we get a proxy for real-yields. With this, we can look at the 10-year chart of gold prices vs yields and the inverse relationship becomes clear now-- rising real yields push gold prices down! As gold is quoted in US dollar, the strengthening dollar has added salt to the wound, further weakening the price of gold. On a shorter timeframe, the 1875 handle seems to be of a significant level, providing the previous levels of support and resistance. With this support level breached last week and a retest this week, coupled with the rising yields and a strong US dollar, we see further downside for gold from here. Entry at 1875, stop above 1960. Targets are 1762 and 1680. Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by inspirante
Why do traders mostly lose? Point of viewFor 3-5 minutes while going through this forget what you know about trading. First thing is : Let's remember our goal, every successful action/plan started with a clear goal that led the way: In our case it's profit When starting to trade seeing the numbers go up and down plays with your head and emotion quickly tempting you with the unlimited potential at your fingertips. Even experienced traders that had some lucky streaks forget that the wanted end result is simple - to be in the money, meaning, making profits consistently. In order to secure our goal of making profit we need to first start with remembering this is not a 'get rich quick' scheme and there is no magic - A big bunch of money won't fall on your head out of nowhere, at least not consistently. Now - remember this : It's a lot better to be consistently profitable than to have a series of a few winning streaks . With this in mind, it's great if you would put up a sticky note on your screen reminding this - As at times it gets hard keeping sight when numbers run wild. I see many traders look at between 5-10 crypto currencies, 3 commodities and 10 currency pairs - Deciding based on a variety of different things what to trade on every time. This way of action has no structure at all - Which makes it very hard to reach a certain target: profit. It is necessary to have focus, structure and a plan with a single minded mission: PROFIT. But not just any profit - smart profit, a profit that was a result of planned action. So how do you make a plan? The easiest way to effectively craft a well thought out plan is to focus on between 2 to max 3 instruments Learning the range, price action and tendencies of 2-3 instruments can be done within a few weeks going through 1h, 4h and weekly time-frames and determining the short-term and long-term projections of each of the 2-3 instruments. Once you start seeing the patterns and understanding the price action continue by implementing what you learned on the instruments on a demo account testing a possible strategy that relies on clear idea of what to do with every possible scenario. You may not get it right with the first strategy, so try others until you find one that shows consistent results - while mastering the 2-3 instruments you have chosen and continuing to following up on a daily basis on relevant news, changes in trends on short-term and long-term projections. For me - Because I've dedicated years trading and following Gold and WTI , learning how and why it moves - I prefer trading a swing trading strategy, keeping trades open between 3 days to 2 weeks usually, this puts my bigger picture understanding of the instruments into true effect The difficulties you will find while searching for your strategy are - *Greed *Fear *Lack of patience *Lack of discipline in plan Don't let them in - Remember your plan and one and only goal : consistent profit! Thank you for reading, Let me know what you think and what you would like to hear more about :D
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Exactus
3
Why Less Trading Gives Better Results!Hey hey traders! We're coming to you with a nice and short video on why trading less is actually better for you, atleast based on our experience! Being a full time day trader I found it hard to actually be at my best and trade all day long... at the end of the day trading is a means to an end, its only purpose is for you to exchange your knowledge, effort and focus for money, yet you do not need to sit there all day to do that, 60mins of focus is better than a whole day of nothing. Try what we preach for the rest of the week and you'll be amazed at your performance! Good luck trading!
OANDA:DE30EUREducation
by PrimedGroup
4
Leading Indicators Reversal Still BearishThe JNK ETF looks like it is heading further down still -> Bearish for equities. The IWM ETF is likely to follow through after closing at a low -> Bearish for equities The DJT ETF looks a tad bearish too -> Bearish for equities The VALUG looking to fail support, with a bearish candle for more downside -> Bearish for equities The TIPS ETF continue down draft-> Bearish for equities The TLT ETF is still diving -> still not seeing any flight to safety. The VIX just broke out above the trendline -> very Bearish for equities The HG1! copper futures downtrending Overall, rather Bearish bias on equities
TVC:VIX
by Auguraltrader
Leading indicators are BearishVery quickly before the market opens... The JNK ETF is heading further down for lower low -> Bearish for equities. The IWM ETF is likely to follow down continuing the candle -> Bearish for equities The DJT ETF broke support -> Bearish for equities The VALUG failed the resistance, with a bearish candle for more downside -> Bearish for equities The TIPS ETF gave up and gave way -> Bearish for equities The TLT ETF is looking for a non-existent bottom -> no flight to safety. just gave way, period. The VIX just broke out and checked in at the support... spiking up soon? The HG1! copper futures stalled at resistance. Overall, Bearish bias on equities
COMEX:HG1!Short
by Auguraltrader