APHRIA - Looking BullishIf it holds 4.44 next week, it should be bullish. If it breaks 4.33, be careful on the downside.
TLRY
TILRAY $TLRY "Swing up"It found support at both 50SMA and trendline. It is time to swing up. It just need more volume to be attractive.
12 months Consensus Price Target: $17.88
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$TLRY Squares Off with Binary Outcome RiskTLRY shares recently triggered an "Ascending Triangle Bullish Breakout", which is often an extremely powerful long side pattern setup.
But it can fail. And failures of this setup are often spectacularly damaging because investors often can't tell when to give up, and often give up in a crowd.
A move back under $7.50 would be bad at this point.
TLRY WEEKLYStanding at a breaking point which is also a heavy supply zone from the March lows. Volumes are accumulating since Thursday. Expect stock trading at 10-10.5 level for couple days next week. Let the volumes accumulate, successful in doing so TLRY is easily getting to 16 within next week. Breaking 10.5 resistance is a must!
OPENING: TLRY SEPTEMBER/JUNE 5.5/7.5 CALL DIAGONAL... for a 1.33/contract debit.
Metrics:
Max Profit: $67/contract
Max Loss: $133/contract
Break Even: 6.83 vs. 7.78 spot
Debit Paid to Spread Width Ratio: 66.5%
Notes: With front month IV at 179%, running a small, bullish assumption engagement trade with this monied call diagonal right before earnings. Back month at the 90 delta, front month monied at the 61 with more than the usual amount of room to be wrong on the downside.
[TLRY] Boxed in w/ Nowhere to Go but Down, Load Up Pre EarningsBest case scenario TLRY bounces between $7 and $10 until earnings. I think it'll crack below the support there along with overall market weakness and tumble back down, who knows how low, really doubt it'll retest lows ($2.5 is a crazy steal) but anything under $7 really is a great value buy here especially after what ACB just demonstrated but if you're stingy like me you're probably aiming to buy in the $4-$5 range.
The industry gravity seems to be having an especially depressing effect on TLRY (aside from the overall climbing support line). Even as ACB soared and CGC, OGI, APHA and hell even the black sheep of the industry, SNDL and HEXO, made double digit gains, TLRY stayed mostly put.
Everything now reverting to mean because industry gravity is too high, that's only going to pull TLRY lower.
Eventually that gravity will dissipate and all these companies will soar, just a matter if that happens this earnings or next, but will happen.
$TLRY: $10 Short Potential [Currently < than IPO Price]First off, please don't take anything I say seriously, or as financial advice. That being said, let me get into a few of my key insights. Tilray is currently only $8.05 which is lower then the $17 price it was entry into the market. The stock peaked at $240 before starting to tumble down bearishly entering into 2019. Cannabis was a fad or bubble waiting to be popped. That being said, as a 750+ employee company that is revamping, it isn't a bad stock pick and may be a steal at its current price. Many analyst are neural on it, but I think it has light in the tunnel for growth. Today it had a high of $9.75, before going down to $8.05. Overall, day over day, the stock's close price went down -0.74%. Today was a notoriously bad day for the market, and this performance was better than expected. Overall, a short of $10 is reasonable, and this is one of those stocks that can likely be flipped multiple times for a day trader or trading bot. It seems to also have long potential, and I believe it will likely reach another bullish run.
ACB UpsideAs shown on the chart since erly October,ACB has been traded below the green trend line on the daily. It finally broke above it this week,but follow through is yet tobe confirmed.
On the macd side, divergence has been building up since early October too as shown by the green trend line. It is important to note that since the middle of May 2019, MACD has always been below the zero line and the upcoming blowout earnings could be the perfect spark to push it upwards finally after a whole year.
RSI has also been moderately trending upwards too. Although it broke the upwards trendline for a couple of days during early March, it still has potential to be a viable signal to the upside. Also just like the MACD, since the middle of May 2019, RSI has been traded below the 50th mark except for a few head fakes.
All in all I believe the longs will finally be rewarded and if Aurora comes clutch with a equity based partnership deal we will definetely be seeing a 10-15bil market within this year.
TLRY 50? ESCAPING THE INELASTIC CHOKE FUTURE OF CANNABISGood evening Trading viewers,
I present to you my second analysis on weed stocks. Is it a voodoo or a complex set of modelers in background or a mystic play of my mind.
The infinity governance of time and space has played in part lower single digits.
The axiom quantification of price says tlry $50, is it possible?!!!
Stop loss 1$. We will see, maybe i am right or maybe i am wrong.
Three years from now we will see and ponder about magnification of the ideas.
Let the game begin
WOW, look how perfect that is TLRY cup & handle reversalTLRY up because it is a cup & handle pattern and it just looks so perfect. It matches the .618 retrace and it is amazing how it looks to fit so perfectly. We closed literally at the fib. Wow! This matches the fib level of the cup & handle, handle I linked. You can see how we are in a channel and that we are going to target 1 around 11.23, which would be around the 300 sma on the chart. You can also see how the dotted line perfectly lies within all of this (target 1) and then target 2 as I learned is the length of the depth of the cup and still within the channel. I drew three grey lines that are just relative resistances from the overall bearish trend. It is amazing how the second target matches the yellow follow through that is a copy of the prior days move. Great news just came about providing 40b in liquidity to cannibis sector in Canada! Also, it is so amazing how it looks how it is going to breakout and have a nice retrace to test the prior huge bearish channel.