TLRY Bull Follow through from parabolic wedge bull flag So far this week is a bull follow through bar. The bull breakout gap is still open below. The bulls will likely get two legs sideways to up even if only a small rally and test of the 78 tight trading range. If the bulls get strong consecutive bars over the coming weeks, it will increase the likelihood of a second leg up and test of the 160 high. If instead, the rally is week, the bears will look to sell around the 100 lower high and once again try for a test of the open.
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TLRY
ACB 50/50 Probability - Breakout ModeACB NYSE is currently in the dead center of the bull flag trading range, and a converging triangle. This is where the directional probability is very close to 50/50. However the bulls have a slight advantage because it is a bull flag trading range, and there are bull gaps below. Prices are currently stalling at the failed bear reversal, where trapped bears may soon buy and contribute to a rally. However there is no valid but setup yet this week. The Bears want a test of the 5 low, and to fill the bull breakout gap. If this gap is filled, it will decrease the bull strength and prices will likely remain range bound for the next 20-40 bars. If instead the bulls keep the breakout gap open and form a higher low in the coming weeks, it will increase the probability of a test of the all time high and possibly bull trend continuation. But since prices are in a trading range, there will probably be some profit taking and short selling at a new all time high, unless the bull rally and breakout is exceptional.
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ACB 50/50 Bull Flag Trading Range - Breakout ModeACB is currently in the dead center of the bull flag trading range, and a converging triangle. This is where the directional probability is very close to 50/50. However the bulls have a slight advantage because it is a bull flag trading range, and there are bull gaps below. Prices are currently stalling at the failed bear reversal, where trapped bears may soon buy and contribute to a rally. However there is no valid but setup yet this week. The Bears want a test of the 7 low, and to fill the bull breakout gap. If this gap is filled, it will decrease the bull strength and prices will likely remain range bound for the next 20-40 bars. If instead the bulls keep the breakout gap open and form a higher low in the coming weeks, it will increase the probability of a test of the all time high and possibly bull trend continuation. But since prices are in a trading range, there will probably be some profit taking and short selling at a new all time high, unless the bull rally and breakout is exceptional.
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Short-term / Technical study of TLRYAs shown in chart. TLRY could benefit of a big rally if we can cross the $56.50 SMA(50) line with strong volume.
Technicals
RSI @62 with a stronger comeback from being oversold. (Check chart drawings)
* Always set your stop-limits to protect your position, as well as exit-profit targets to get your gains.
Happy trading!
dorfmanmaster
Do not miss the other chance of buying TLRY this week or so!Here is my update on TLRY stock. Before that, let me thank you for your all supports and thoughts.
My assumption is that TLRY probably bottomed at ~$34.5 on June 6th, 2019. We may test that level later again.
As mentioned in my previous post on TLRY (link below), I found very similarities between TLRY and Bitcoin market. To me, TLRY current pattern is very similar to that of Bitcoin around Nov 2018 to Jan 2019.
Pay a close attention to the Fib retracement levels. Try after reaching (let’s say) bottom, jumped to 78% level, EXACTLY like Bitcoin! Then came back down to 38% level. What I expect to see in the next few days is to see TLRY goes back up to 62% or somewhere between 62%-78% level (~ $44-$45). I also see a strong resistance around $45. After that, I expect it to go down again somewhere below the 23% level. I see a good support around $37.12. That might happen somewhere around July 8th-10th, where the last blue Fib circle meets the pitchfork line in pink. I would definitely rebuy somewhere above this number, maybe $38-$38.5, as I see another support level.
Even if we go below the previous low (~$34.5) I do not think I lose massive money!
If we go above that 21day moving average line (the pink one) and stay above it for few days, I will be very bullish!
Good luck,
ENPH Test of all time highThe buying pressure has been strong over the past few months on a test of the all time high. But this market is still in a large trading range, and the buying pressure is climactic. This is more likely a buy vacuum test of the high of the range than the start of a strong bull trend. Instead, there will probably be profit taking around or above the all time high which is just above. The bulls will need a strong breakout above and follow through before a trend is likely to begin. The bull gaps below around $10 will also likely need to be tested first.
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TLRY (cannabis stock) BUY signals! (TLRY follows Bitcoin 2014)This is not a financial advice and I put it here only for my own record.
I have been watching cannabis stock for a while and the most exciting one is TLRY. It seems the bottom is already in (which I cannot confirm yet) or very close to the bottom. The market value is already more than 85% below its all time high ($300 to ~35$). Both RSI and MACD show divergence situation (market is going down but RSI and MACD going up) which is a bullish sign. I am not saying the bull market has started but if we see more confirmations in the near future, we can say the bottom is in. IMO, $35-$40 is already a great range (85-90% below ATH) for buying in. I already had some purchases around $35-$38 and keep accumulating around every bottom.
My near term prediction is: the price will go up to test 50% - 61.8% Fibonacci levels (around $44-$47), then we go back down to retest $35 or go below that level. I think there is a chance to go below $35 but it is unlikely to go below $28-$30. Even if you buy at the current price ($38.8) you will not lose a lot if the price goes down temporarily. My only concern is the low volume. Typically, we should see high volumes around true bottom, which I do not see that for TLRY now. So, be very cautious and set your stop-losses wisely and always follow the market as it goes on.
Also, I found a similarity between the current TLRY pattern and that of Bitcoin around 1 Nov 2014. If that comes true, we may see another large drop (final capitulation) within months along with higher volumes. Since we are already 85-90% below the ATH, to have another large sell-off we might need to go up a little bit for a while then have a large drop. Again, I do not think we go below 28$.
If you like please share with your friends and leave comments to improve my prediction and analysis.
Thanks,
$TLRY Double Bottom - Heavy Volume Bounce$TLRY Appears to have double bottomed just above $34 support from last year. Moving on solid volume today. Expecting continued bullish move near term.
1st target - $44.00 by mid-June
2nd target - $48.00 by early July
Note: Informational, not investment advice.
TLRY vs. EOS in the Weekly: Crazily Similar!Hello dear Cannabis/MJ-Sector friends.
I just wanna make you aware of the crazy similarities between TLRY & EOS from the crypto world:
On the last run up, EOS 5xed and Tilray 10xed
Up until the Weekly Triangle equilibrium, both had corrected 73% from their tops which is almost scary
Before the break of the EQ in EOS, I had looked at potential previous S/R zones before the run up, and had identified 2 Dollar psychological: I had posted this before grandpa Bitcoin broke its Weekly EQ bearish, and played EOS on the break to the downside. It was one of my single biggest winners last year, EOS went even under 2 Dollar, giving us more than 60% to the downside
This does not mean that TLRY has to break bearish automatically, as this is due to the fundamentals in the Cannabis sector. But for the case it does , we can definitely see a very similar hype pattern here, which saw a big correction already, and most importantly, could still see some big downward movement. Therefore, look for the break of 75.25 Weekly HL for some huge short potential, at least up until the previous resistance of 64-67. If that doesn't hold, the EOS case could repeat here for amazing shorting profit
If you had some value from my analysis, give it a thumbs-up, so other traders will see it too. Make also sure to follow me so you get notified on my Crypto Analyses! I wish you a good trading! :) No matter what you do, please set your stop loss. Please be aware, that you can lose all your money on the online exchanges.
About myself: Global citizen & early Bitcoin adopter from Germany. I invested in the 2nd rally in 2013.
TLRYA possible final bottom for $TLRY could be around $34 , last swing high of last summer.
The EW count now seems to be still incomplete and the weakness of the entire sector could bring the price in that sweet spot.
Keep in mind that Tilray is still one of the most overvalued stock in the cannabis sector with a market cap in the hundreds of times its revenues.
$TLRY - Descending Triangle BreakdownWill $TLRY find support at 50% of the height of the descending triangle breakdown?
This looks a lot like $BTC's descending triangle breakdown to the lower $3000, just not as violent and sudden. Really just depends on how far the SPX drops, but I think $30.47 - 34.51 is a reasonable level to find some support. Any thoughts?
VFF weekly analysisThe high 2 micro double bottom bull flag has triggered from last week. The bears were unable to fill the $10 bull gap. Bulls likely to get second leg up from strong bull rally. They want a measured move up based on the spike or a leg 1 = leg 2 measured move. Prices will likely soon enter a bull channel. The bears need to generate strong selling pressure before they are likely to reverse the bull trend.
Lessons From an Experienced Trader #2Lesson 4 Know what you want in the market
Contrary to what most believe, successful traders do not actually trade constantly. Attempting to trade constantly leads to increased commission costs, random trading, and compound mistakes. In fact, successful traders spend most of their time doing absolutely nothing! How long does it take to enter an order? A click of the button. A few seconds. Maybe a few minutes at most to create bracket orders.
So what do Professional Traders do the rest of the time? They wait. They wait until the market offers what they want or are looking for. Then after entering they wait some more to see if they are right. They wait for the market to provide them with the information to either hold, or exit.
They allow themselves to Be, the trade to Be, the market to Be and do what it is going to do. They do not force actions or attempt to make the market do what they want. They wait until the action comes about on its own, until it is natural, a reflex.
If you do not know what it is in the market that you are looking for, you will fold under pressure and confusion. A Professional Trader knows exactly what he wants (not just to make money), he knows what he is looking for in the market, and is willingness to wait for it to arrive. By doing so, he is rewarded and paid by the market for his patience and willing to do nothing. Even if this means not trading for hours, days, or even weeks depending on the time frame.
It is far better to do nothing and avoid unnecessary losses, than to try and create tensions, forced actions, and lose money. You have to ask yourself "What is more important? The actual act of trading, or making money?"
Lesson 5 Define your edge
An edge is what you have defined as being what you want from the market in the previous lesson. This can be anything from a specific setup, to just plain context like a strong market. If you do not know what your edge is, you will struggle to perform consistently due to randomness.
Many new traders, especially those who follow price action, believe they should be able to trade the market no matter what the context is. If you think you are just going to walk in to the market, trade based on whatever the market is doing and make money; you are fooling yourself. Doing so will lead you to trade randomly, entering willy nilly at the market, and make many mistakes which will cost you your profitability.
Do you walk into Walmart or Aldi's without knowing what you want to buy until you get there? No, you have a list of items, or at least an idea of what you need before you go. Do you start a business because you woke up this morning and thought it would be nice to own a car wash? Hopefully not. You first identify an opportunity, and then create a business model after a lot of research. Then finally you open the business.
Of course everyone thinks or says "well so and so does this and that, and he seems to be making money." Sure, maybe he is, maybe not. If he is, he has defined his edge and is simply employing it. What someone else does has absolutely nothing to do with what you should be doing.
Once you have defined your edge, you must wait for it to arrive. If the market is not offering what you want or what your edge calls for, you do nothing until it is. If your edge is a trend trading method and the market is in a trading range, you do not trade until the market is trending.
If you have not clearly defined your edge, you should not trade. If you do not know what it is in the market you want and are looking for, you have no business in the market. Simple as that. If you chose to do so, you are putting yourself at unnecessary risk and trading randomly. Yes this sounds harsh, but it is the reality of the market. The market will not give you anything, especially if you don't even know what it is that you want!
TLRY Weekly Analysis Parabolic Wedge Bull FlagTLRY has formed a second entry for a parabolic wedge bull flag and larger high 2, although a doji bar. If the bulls are unable to regain control soon - something is wrong with the bull trend premise. If the bulls do not return within the next few weeks, prices are more likely to be in a trading range and will likely test the tight trading range of the open around $25. If the bulls do generate strong follow through, they will likely get two legs up at minimum, and possibly bull trend resumption.
TLRY Weekly AnalysisTLRY formed a parabolic wedge bull flag which triggered last week. So far it is failing and testing the bull breakout gap around $40. The bulls will likely try to form a second entry for the wedge bull flag within the next few weeks. If instead the sell off continues, prices will likely test the tight trading range of the open around $20 and from there enter a trading range.
CGC Weekly AnalysisCGC has formed a failed bull breakout and small final flag reversal (failed breakout of tight trading range). It also tested the middle of the tight trading range from the previous all time high which was a target. However this is the first reversal attempt since the January rally and the selling pressure wasnt that strong. The bears need strong follow through in order to convince the market the reversal is in. If the market ignores the sell setup and instead prices continue to rally, the bulls will likely get a new all time high, or a test of the previous high.
GWPH Weekly AnalysisThe Bulls are getting trend resumption after testing the EMA and filling the buy climax gap at $150. Prices will likely reach a new all time high soon. There are signs of profit taking around the new all time high (sideways for past 8 weeks). A reversal down soon could become a second entry for the larger wedge reversal. If there is another buy climax prices would form a parabolic wedge reversal and likely correct for two legs sideways to down.