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TLRY

WEED weekly analysisWEED WEED is in a broad bull channel with good buying pressure and no strong reversal yet. The bears recently attempted to form a lower high, but prices are stalled at the EMA and set up a nested high 2 /wedge bull flag. The bulls have a breakout gap below around $47.50. If it remains open, prices will likely test the all time high. A new all time high could form a wedge reversal down, at which point bulls will likely take profits and wait for two legs sideways to down before buying again, unless the reversal is strong.
TSX:WEED
by tradersmentality
TLRY Weekly AnalysisTLRY TLRY had a strong bull rally soon after it went public but formed a buy climax (tail). Since it has been correcting down to test the bull breakout. The selling pressure is not great and is accelerating, possibly setting up a wedge bull flag soon. If the bull gap from around $35 stays open it will increase the chances of bull trend continuation. If it is is filled, prices will likely test the tight trading range below and is more likely to enter a trading range.
NASDAQ:TLRY
by tradersmentality
Selling the Cannabis Bubble (Part 2)The pot bubble is going to burst. From the technical perspective we are pulling the trigger here after retracing 61.8% of the initial leg to the downside from the highs. For those who believe in the bearish story for the industry, now is the time to get back to work on the sell-side. More and more funds with large central books are starting to open up positions writing upside vol from here onwards . The easier play in this field is to just short the common stock with targets at the bottom of the range. The drug although very safe does not have any reasonable medical benefits. Obviously we have the lifestyle/recreational benefit but not any obvious health benefit other than epileptic syndromes. I do think it has some analgesic properties but these have to be understood through more clinical trials and et... to put simply we need more robust toxicology and clinical understanding here before any further upside is unlocked. Best of luck those who are already positioned on the sell side in $WEED and the others.
AShort
by ridethepig
7
THE WEEK AHEAD: TLRY, MU, CAG EARNINGS; XOP, GDXJThree earnings announcements interest me this coming week from a volatility contraction standpoint: TLRY (--/79),* announcing on Monday after market close; MU (45/51) -- Wednesday after market close, and CAG (86/45), Thursday, before market open. CAG: Pictured here is a CAG April 18th 22/24/25 Jade Lizard, which was 1.03 at the mid as of Friday close, giving it a downside break even of 20.97 with no upside risk, since the credit received exceeds the risk of the short call aspect of the setup. It's a bullish assumption, theta positive setup with a net delta of 21.14 and a theta of 1.86. Since it's gotten totally hammered since last earnings and does pay a dividend (.85 annualized; 3.69% yield), I could also see just going the most straightforward route, which would be short put, with the at-the-money 23 in the April monthly paying 1.11 with a downside break even of 21.89. TLRY: The April18th 55/60/85/90 iron condor's paying 1.63 at the mid, but I'd be picky and hold out for one-third the width of the wings in credit or pass on partaking, since the markets in the underlying are wider than I'd like. For the young at heart, the 60/85 one standard deviation move break even short strangle's paying 4.11, but would plan on a touch of price discovery if you want in. MU: The April 18th 40 short straddle is paying 4.53 at the mid and is about as delta neutral as you can get (.78) with a theta of 6.7 and break evens of 35.47/44.53. For those who need more room to be wrong and/or delta balance without going inverted: the 35/44 short strangle is paying 1.43 with one standard deviation break evens on both sides (33.57/45.43). On the exchange-traded fund front, premium selling is somewhat thin here with GDXJ (34/26), GDX (31/23), TBT (23/20), OIH (21/28), and IYR (19/12) rounding out the type five sorted by rank; XOP (18/29), OIH (21/28), EWZ (5/28), USO (10/27), and GDXJ (34/26), if sorted by 30-day implied. I'm still short straddling XOP (See Post Below), but don't have anything on in gold (GDX, GDXJ), so may putz with something small and nondirectional there. However, neither the GDX nor GDXJ at-the-money short straddles appear to be paying the 10% I generally like to see out of those -- the GDXJ May 17th 32 is paying 2.80 versus a 32.33 share price; the GDX May 17th 22, 1.67 versus a 22.30 share price. * -- TLRY doesn't yet have a 52-week rank metric, since it hasn't been around that long yet.
NYSE:CAG
by NaughtyPines
TLRY Bear Break -10% Profits already!Dear Cannabis Sector friends! In our previous TLRY idea we had asked ourselves: Can TLRY repeat what EOS from crypto space did already? (See the link below) The answer is: Yes . And this is the beauty of Technical Analysis: No matter where you go, which market you wanna play, human psychology never changes. A beautiful descending triangle gets broken bearish, which was the most likely scenario -with 10% profits already. We have now reached the previous lows at 70 psychological and could definitely see some bounce going from here, since Hourly RSI is completely oversold. Also, always check correlation to sector leaders like CGC, CRON, etc. But should we keep going lower: You should be very comfortable with your trigger under 75,25 at the latest. Also key takeaway from here: We had broken the ascending bearish trendline earlier, and only after the price level break, we saw the flush incoming. While trendlines work good in the stock market esp. on bigger names, in crypto/cannabis space & with lower volume names, you always wanna see the Price Action & S/R level breaks. If you had some value from my analysis, give it a thumbs-up & comment it, because the mechanism shows my analysis to other people then. Make also sure to follow me so you get notified on my Crypto Analyses! I wish you a good trading! :) Edgy is providing online education & tools only. We are not a financial advisor, nor do we hold any formal qualifications in this area. You're trading at your own risk. No matter what you do, please set your stop loss. Please be aware, that you can lose all your money on the online exchanges.
NASDAQ:TLRYShort
by Edgy_
2
The Cannabis Sector is coming!Hello my dear Cannabis sector fans, but also to my usual Crypto friends: Pay attention now! The legalization of Cannabis is coming from left an right, and obviously, what had started in Canada, will not just stay there. The US is the next huge market, and after that comes Europe. Some of the Canadian Cannabis companies have seen huge run-ups already, but this isn't the end. We are currently far from normal legalized consuming. So: Once my course comes out, I intend to do much more analyses to the Marijuana sector! Stay tuned :) Give it a thumbs up so other traders will see this important information! :) Comment it if you have another info or just want to tell your opinion! Make also sure to follow me so you get notified on my Crypto & Cannabis Analyses! I wish you a good trading! :) Edgy is providing online education & tools only. We are not a financial advisor, nor do we hold any formal qualifications in this area. You're trading at your own risk. No matter what you do, please set your stop loss. Please be aware, that you can lose all your money on the online exchanges.
V
by Edgy_