TLRY
Canopy Growth Corp - General Cannabis RunHey looks like CGC, TLRY, ACB and the WEED etf's are starting their general cannabis run. Canopy has come down to it's lows and might be looking to takeoff here, rsi weekly is starting to inflect and macd is crossing over this could run for a long time several months possibly back to 50$ area. Lower time frames are overbought so might see some red to start the week next week. A buy price of 13.00$ would't be too bad. Also check out EDEN.CN on the Canadian Securities Exchange: Eden Empire is a new player in the cannabis space in Canada and the U.S, they are starting grow operations and have chain of dispensaries and are growing and expanding fast! Other's to check out are mentioned above CGC, TLRY, ACB and the WEED etf's.
ca.finance.yahoo.com
ca.finance.yahoo.com
Big Moves SpeculationFundamental:
1. With indication of legalization, TLRY could potentially catch up nice momentum here.
Technical:
1. Clear breakout, This might push TLRY to previous highs. I've taken entry on dump after breakout.
Note:
Currently posting only TP1
I would like to see the sector movement as it approach the target
ACB 4hr setting up for an earnings breakoutVery very bullish on this name and sector. ACB has formed a falling wedge and a rounding bottom consolidation. With earnings on deck, im confidently long given my previous post on this being a similar setup to what we saw in 2015.
DIAMOND HAND IT above 6.61 breakup daily candle.
$TLRY the og sniper*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks*
*My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences*
*Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management*
Recap: On 10/22/21 My team entered $TLRY at $11.56 per share. We still plan to take profit at $29 per share, but just for laughs we have added a new exit for $TLRY at $145 per share.
My team increased our position at $10.30 per share on 10/29/21.
Their next earnings report is expected to be released 11/8-11/12.
ENTRY: $11.56
TAKE PROFIT: $29.00
MEME STOCK ABSURDNESS: $145
If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
$TLRY girl scout sniper*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks*
*My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences*
*Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management*
$TLRY and other cannabis related stocks have finally broken out of bearish territory. My team doesn't expect this brewing bullish momentum to slow down any time soon, especially with loosening regulation around the corner.
My team entered $TLRY today at $11.56 per share and plan to take profit at $29.
Their next earnings report is expected to be released 11/8-11/12.
ENTRY: $11.56
TAKE PROFIT: $29.00
If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
TLRY - nowhere left to go but up! This wedge has finally been squeezed out and shorters have nowhere left to push. Time for TLRY to make the trek back to ATH - are you in? Don't chase! we could revisit the top of the wedge which would be a great buy point to set your limit order, then set a tight stop below the wedge. Good luck!
TLRY LONG TRIGGER on WWThe purpose of this hindsight post is to introduce wolfe wave version 1.4. The latest version allows users to modify the wolfe wave length. In previous versions, the wolfe wave length was defined with length=13. In the new release, users can introduce user-defined length values. When displaying user-defined wolfe waves on charts, it is recommended to also select a color that corresponds to the specific length value. For instance, in TLRY there are three bullish wolfe waves identified in 3 different time-frames. Each color represents different length value which range from 9, 13, and 21. The green color wolfe wave corresponds to length =13. The blue color wolfe wave corresponds to length =21. The yellow color wolfe wave corresponds to length =9. It is highly recommended to combine the wolfe waves with ttm squeezes of uncommon time-frames, ie 78 min. The expected move for TLRY is achieved and therefore entry into TLRY should not be considered.
TLRY TimeAnother beautiful, long Falling Wedge on TLRY here since around March. After that huge run from TLRY, there was much selling and bearish divergence on the chart from being so overbought. The run up left many gaps in the chart and they needed to be filled before TLRY could even think of going for another run.
Bullish divergence seen on the RSI, RSI value is making higher highs while the price continues to make lower lows, meaning some bullish divergence. Also coupled with the MACD cross today, I think this could be the start of a nice reversal for TLRY.
Has consistently used the fib retracement levels for support and resistance, so if we target the 236 fib level at around 20-22 dollars, that would give us an 80% return on our investment. However, just looking at the closer resistances, for the short term I would target first resistance at around 12-12.5, and then at around 14, then up to 16-17 $.
GAPS:
There were many gaps in the chart due to the run up in Jan - Feb which needed to be filled, the last of which were at 9.6 - 10.5. We did not COMPLETELY fill the gap so be careful about that, only a partial gap fill.
SUPPORTS:
I would be looking back to the trendline which acted as a bounce for this recent run today. Around 10$, then I would look at 9$ as the next support level after the gap fill.
RESISTANCE:
$12 - $12.5
$14
200 SMA at $14.70
Psychological Roots of Failure in TradingI write this article to shine a light on the importance of the learning process and increasing your knowledge in trading.
Unfortunately, many new traders start trading during the bull cycle without knowing the basics of the market, and the result is almost always the same.
They do not know Bullish trends will not last forever, and this coin has another side!
I remember when I published my RIOT analysis on Nov 5th, 2020, the price was 3.81 USD/share and my target was 55 USD/share!
I relieved many comments that is a scam or some others made fun of me!
RIOT skyrocketed to 79.50 and then I published my first short analysis on Feb 18, 2021, this time everyone oppose me that it is a buying opportunity at 62 USD/share!
I experienced the same situation over and over again:
NASDAQ:WKHS
NASDAQ:TLRY
NYSE:SPCE
Now for those who like to know the underlying cause of Boom-Bust cycles in the market, I would like to explain more:
Soros’ boom-bust cycle, explains the three phases of price change as:
1- The “far-from-equilibrium” upswing,
2-The phase transition turning point, and
3--The downswing and return to “near-equilibrium” conditions.
I believe we can evaluate the participants psychological condition as well:
Charles Darwin wrote in his book The Descent of Man, "Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge."
We can consider darwin's quote the basis for the psychological researches by psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger.
The Dunning-Kruger effect
The Dunning-Kruger effect is a type of cognitive bias in which people believe that they are smarter than others and more capable than they are. Essentially, low ability people do not possess the skills needed to recognize their incompetence. The combination of poor self-awareness and low cognitive ability leads them to overestimate their capabilities.
A Little Knowledge Can Lead to Overconfidence
Another contributing factor is that sometimes a tiny bit of knowledge on a subject can lead people to mistakenly believe that they know all there is to know about it. As the old saying goes, a little bit of knowledge can be a dangerous thing. A person might have the slimmest bit of awareness about a subject, yet thanks to the Dunning-Kruger effect, believe that he or she is an expert.
Other factors that can contribute to the effect include our use of analytical or mental shortcuts that allow us to make decisions quickly, and our tendency to seek out patterns even where none exist. Our minds are primed to try to make sense of the disparate array of information we deal with daily. It is perhaps not surprising that we sometimes fail to accurately judge how well we do.
Is There Any Way to Overcome the Dunning-Kruger Effect?
Keep learning and practicing
Instead of assuming you know all, there is to know about a subject, keep digging deeper.
Ask other people how you're doing
Another effective strategy involves asking others for constructive criticism.
Question what you know
Seek out information that challenges your ideas, as you learn more and get feedback, it can be easy to only pay attention to things that confirm what you think you already know. This is an example of another type of psychological bias known as confirmation bias.
Dunning and Kruger suggest that as experience with the subject increases, confidence typically declines to more realistic levels. As people learn more about the topic of interest, they begin to recognize their lack of knowledge and ability. Then as people gain more information and become experts on a topic, their confidence levels begin to improve once again.
Conclusion:
you should keep updating your knowledge about the market and accept that as a never-ending process regardless of your experience.
Best,
Moshkelgosha
Reference Articles:
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
psycnet.apa.org
www.britannica.com
www.verywellmind.com
www.psychologytoday.com
TLRY Spike StudyJust studying some and figured to put some thoughts to writing, solely for my own friction of thought.
$TLRY's sudden price jump occurred during the formation of a minuette 5 wave, which extended. The steep sell off right after, was pretty scary, but expected at the same time. I am trying to decide if we witnessed an anomaly, or if this insane price action marks the beginning of a reversal. The fact that it was a wave 5 certainly justifies the sell off, but there are several waves of higher degree, that haven't been completed yet.
There are many catalysts for the industry ahead, this year.
There are many catalysts ahead for TLRY, once the merger completes
The spike was caused by a short squeeze, meaning investors were correct to be bag holders, and shorts had to cover their positions
The sell off brought the price back to pre-squeeze levels, and found demand, confirming the above.
So now what?
There are examples of assets that spiked, then traded sideways for a time, before continuing higher. $GRWG is a good example, when it spiked from $2 to $20. If you study that spike, you see a retrace of 50%(ish), 2 months sideways chop and then started on a textbook impulse wave to the current level of $55, with both spike, correction and impulse wave following Elliot Wave Theory to a tee.
Frost and Prechter, page 66, describes behaviour following fifth wave extensions:
"The most important empirically derived rule that can be distilled from our observations of market behaviour is that when the fifth wave of an advance is an extension, the ensuing correction will be sharp and find support at the level of wave 2 of the extension.
As marked on the chart here, you see the extension take off from iii, then plunge back into the ii range that I marked with green. The book continues:
"Sometimes the correction ends there, and sometimes only wave A ends there. Although a limited number of real life examples exist, the precision with which A waves have reversed at this level, is remarkable."
and finally:
"This guideline need not apply when the market is ending a fifth wave at more than one degree, yet the action suggests that we should still view this level as at least potential or temporary support."
For $TLRY, I am quite confident that we ended minuette 5 of minute 3. Even if I got a degree wrong here, we are still looking at minor 3 inside intermediate 3. So, in theory, we still have a series of 4-5's to complete before this primary wave is complete. At the same time, the top of minute 1 is at $9.66, so this asset has lots of room to move.
Trade with caution.