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TLT

Update: TLT March 21st 95 Covered CallsA "refresh" of a fairly long-running cash flow setup, with the cash flow emanating from (a) short call premium and (b) dividends. As of the 12/18/24 dividend, my break even is at 85.81 (including dividends). (See Post Below). One of my New Year's resolutions is to be a little more patient and roll out the short call on approaching worthless, targeting the short call strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit, but my mouse hand occasionally seems to have a mind of its own ... .
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by NaughtyPines
Weekly Indicator Panel WARNED last weekend...ALL Red Flags already, as warned by my panel of leading indicators. You would see that all threshold have been triggered and are clearly red flags IF the week closes at current levels. The week has not ended, but it appears bad enough. There should be an attempt tp recover somewhat, but overall appears that Santa Claus might crash this rally this year. Furthermore, the year end and year start are keen indicators of the year ahead as well... so watch closely.
TVC:SG10YShort
by Auguraltrader
Opening (IRA): TLT February 21st 87 Covered Call... for a 85.97 debit. Comments: Going long at or near November lows, selling the -75 call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, with the built-in defense of the short call. I'm also looking to snag the January and potentially the February dividends here. This is a bit longer-dated than I ordinarily like to go, but I'm not doing a ton here besides waiting for January setups to come in/be managed. The obvious variant is to sell the standard -30 delta against: TLT Feb 21st 94 covered call, 89.72 debit, 4.28 max. 4.77% ROC at max where the short call is paying >1% of the strike price in credit. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 85.97/share Max Profit (ex. dividends): 1.03 ROC at Max: 1.20% 50% Max: .52 ROC at 50% Max: .60% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max after at least the January dividend drops.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by NaughtyPines
Weekly Leading Indicator Panel warns...Reviewing the Weekly charts, especially for the leading indicators, it appears that there is a warning of downside risk imminent. SG10Y bond yield are about to break out. JNK TLT and TIP all have bearish engilfing that covers the previous gap up. Thing is, the coombined US equities chart is somewhat bullish, with a rough bearish harami at the bearish best indication. Even SOXL appears to be bullish somewhat... No action needed, but just an early warning given to set the boundaries yet again... looks like the Christmas Rally just fizzled out.
TVC:SG10Y
by Auguraltrader
Risk-On or Risk-Off? Stocks vs. Bonds Introduction: With stocks reaching new all-time highs and market sentiment edging into euphoria, it's an opportune time to revisit a classic risk-on/risk-off indicator: the ratio between stocks AMEX:SPY and long-term bonds NASDAQ:TLT . This ratio provides a clear view of investor sentiment: Risk-On: When SPY outperforms TLT, investors favor equities for their higher potential returns. Risk-Off: When TLT outperforms SPY, it reflects rising risk aversion and a move toward safer assets like bonds. Analysis: Uptrend Intact: Currently, the SPY-to-TLT ratio remains in a clear uptrend, defined by a series of higher-highs and higher-lows. This sustained upward momentum signals continued confidence in equities. Ascending Channel: The ratio is also rising within an ascending price channel, a bullish continuation pattern. As long as this structure holds, the market can be interpreted as firmly in risk-on mode. What to Watch: Channel Support: A breakdown below the channel’s lower boundary would be the first sign of caution. Higher Highs: If the ratio continues to push upward, it would confirm further bullish sentiment in equities. Conclusion: The SPY-to-TLT ratio is a key barometer for risk appetite, and its sustained uptrend within the ascending channel is a clear signal of the market’s risk-on posture. As long as this trend holds, equities remain in a favorable position. However, traders should stay vigilant for any signs of a breakdown, which could hint at rising market caution. Are you aligned with this risk-on outlook, or do you see potential cracks forming? Share your thoughts below! Charts: (Include charts showing the SPY-to-TLT ratio, the ascending price channel, and key trendlines for support and resistance) Tags: #SPY #TLT #RiskOn #RiskOff #Stocks #Bonds #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketTrends
AMEX:SPY
by Richtv_official
Opening (IRA): TLT December 20th 88 Covered Call... for a 86.84 debit. Comments: High IVR at 74.8% plus weakness. Looking to grab both the November 1st and December 1st dividends here while I twiddle my thumbs waiting for the general election to pass, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 86.84 Max Profit (Excluding Dividends): 1.16 Max Profit (With Dividends): 1.80 ROC at Max Excluding Dividends: 1.34% ROC at Max (With Dividends): 2.07% Immediately post-fill, I put in a GTC order to take profit at .20 short of max or 87.80, but may take if off after the December dividend drops if something more "sexy" gives me that come hither look.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by NaughtyPines
2
Risk Appetite at a Crossroads: SPY vs. TLT Nears Key ResistanceIntroduction: A classic market indicator for gauging risk appetite is the ratio between stocks AMEX:SPY and long-term bonds NASDAQ:TLT . The premise is simple yet powerful: when stocks outperform bonds, the market is in a "risk-on" environment, favoring equities. Conversely, when bonds outperform stocks, it signals a "risk-off" environment, favoring safety. For years, this ratio has trended upward within an ascending price channel, reflecting the dominance of equities over bonds in delivering superior returns. However, the ratio is now approaching the upper boundary of this channel, a critical juncture for assessing the next phase of market dynamics. Analysis: Risk-On vs. Risk-Off: The SPY-to-TLT ratio provides a clear view of market sentiment. A rising ratio reflects confidence in equities, while a declining ratio indicates a shift toward safety in bonds. Long-Term Uptrend: The ratio has been in a well-defined uptrend, marked by higher highs and higher lows. This trend underscores the market's preference for stocks over bonds in recent years. Current Situation: As the ratio nears the upper boundary of its price channel, the potential for a slowdown or reversal increases. While the long-term uptrend remains intact, a pullback could signal a temporary period where bonds (TLT) outperform stocks (SPY). Interest Rate Outlook: With interest rates potentially declining next year, bonds could see increased demand. However, as long as the ratio remains within its channel and continues to rise, the "risk-on" environment remains dominant. Conclusion: The SPY-to-TLT ratio is nearing a pivotal level that could influence market sentiment in the coming months. While the "risk-on" trend remains intact for now, a shift in dynamics could occur if the ratio fails to break through its resistance. Traders and investors should monitor this ratio closely to navigate potential shifts between equity and bond performance. What’s your outlook on this key indicator? Share your thoughts below! Charts: (Include relevant charts showing the SPY-to-TLT ratio, the ascending price channel, and key resistance and support levels) Tags: #RiskAppetite #Stocks #Bonds #SPY #TLT #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketTrends
AMEX:SPY
by Richtv_official
U.S. Aggregate T-Bond Market. Fears & Greed Awakening. Series IIIt's gone 3 weeks or so, since Mr. Trump has secured a win over his Democrat-rival Kamala Harris in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as it declared by the Associated Press. Since that, a lot of stocks soared in a meme-style mode, while Bitcoin almost cleared $100,000 and Dogecoin soared amid Trump-fueled crypto rally. However macro data still stoke fears over a possible recession and the notion that the Federal Reserve could be too slow with cutting interest rates. Non-farm payroll added just 12K new places last month. And the ISM manufacturing index, a barometer of factory activity in the U.S., came in at 46.5%, worse than expected and a signal of economic contraction. Fresh ISM release is scheduled on Dec 02, 2024 (47.5 points forecasted), and labor market data is on the radars on Friday, Dec 06 (+183K non-farm payroll forecasted). The main technical graph is for U.S. Core Aggregate T-Bond Market ETF (AGG), in total return format, and it indicates on Reversed Head-and-Shoulders technical structure in development, as it's been discussed in earlier published ideas. Moreover, huge 200-Week SMA breakthrough is on the investments radars also. What does it mean for Bond Market?.. Potentially "Good", to jump to all-time high. ... and for Stock Market?.. Potentially "Also Good", until it reach the fever pitch.
AMEX:AGG
by Pandorra
Weekly Leading Indicators: BEARISHManaged to streamline down to these couple of charts for a set of leading indicators. Simple trend analysis and techincals are being used here for Weekly charts and so weekly analysis is appropriate to set the stage for a top down view. First up (on the top right corner) is the Combined US equities chart that shows a strong marubozu the previous week (from elections outcome). However, the following week was not a confirmation, but instead casts doubt on the sustainability of the spike to rally on. Point being, the massive breakout is met with a Dark Cloud Cover that breaks back into the Decision Box (purple box) which was previously marked out for the consolidation range boundaries. Typically when a breakout is followed by a breakin, it tends to follow through to the other end... a break down from the box support. Yellow circle is where it should go through or bounce at. What gives on this is that the following Leading indicators are eluding to... SG10Y Govt Bond Yields The uncanny correlation of this to the US Equities Indexes is remarkable and have been a hallmark of my recent posts and analyses. Here we have a breakout of the trendline resistance. Means equity markets are going Bear. RED Flag High Yield Bonds ETF (JNK) JNK looks to break the uptrend trailstop line, with a lower high that now has a Dark Cloud Cover as well. AMBER Flag TIPS and TLT Both have broken uptrend trailstops and are downtrending with a recent low. These are well known market leading indicators. RED Flags Semiconductor ETF (SOXL) Noted, and personal favourite, SOXL is clearly bearish from simple candlestick patterns. RED Flag So, overall, we have Leads telling us it is BEARISH again. Heads up!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
Time to buy $TLT for a trade to $100?I think we could see a short term rally in $TLT. On low timeframes today, it looks like we've formed a double bottom and that price is bouncing off of the lower trend line. I think we could see a rally up into the $100-102 region from here. My base case is for price to reject that region and then form one more leg lower before a sustainable bounce in bonds. Let's see how it plays out. I marked off both levels to the upside and to the downside to account for both scenarios once price has broken out of the structure.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by benjihyam
4
The Best Explanation of The Bond Market You're Ever Gonna Get12 Month US10Y Bollinger Bands between 2.5 and 2.9 Standard Deviations away from a moving average model greater than 4 years in length, preferably exponential. I haven't optimized this to perfection, but it's close enough to give you the basic idea. The bond market is just a simple oscillator emerging from a complex system and simply does what every other very large and complex system does. It has a trend around which it travels but in decades and centuries not years. It isn't complicated, but it is extremely slow. There are 2 phases and a 5,000 year long trend. It goes up. It goes down. Over the course of centuries it declines. In the down phase, it stays below trend and does the exact opposite in the opposite phase. A kindergartener can trade this thing. Currently the phase is turning over from a down phase that lasted from 1980 to 2020, and entering into a new up phase that will most likely last for 3-4 decades. Trading it: buy secondary market long duration government bonds at the bond yield 3 standard deviation line and sell at the trend. Repeat for the next 30-40 years. Easy peasy.
TVC:US10YShort
by MarkLefevre
2
Market Leading Indicators - suggests DOWNThis is my most summarized panel of leading indicators which I use to assist in the determination of market projections, over and above technical indicators. The SG10Y is about to break out The JNK bonds are breaking down Both TIPS and TLT have already broken down the uptrend support (bearish trend now) The SOXL (semicon ETF) and the combined US Equities are just about to keel over. Leads have turned down or are at the turning point. Heads up!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
U.S. Aggregate T-Bond Market. Fears & Greed AwakeningStocks heavily sold off Thursday (again), with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) tumbling nearly 500 points, as investors’ fears over a recession surfaced. Some fresh data stoked fears over a possible recession and the notion that the Federal Reserve could be too late to start cutting interest rates. Initial jobless claims rose the most since August 2023. And the ISM manufacturing index, a barometer of factory activity in the U.S., came in at 46.8%, worse than expected and a signal of economic contraction. After these releases, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 4% for the first time since February. These weak data releases come a day after central bank policymakers chose to keep rates at the highest levels in two decades, when Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave investors some hope by signaling a September rate cut could be on the table. Labor situations is on the radars also, as fresh unemployment data expected on Friday, August 2. The main technical chart is for U.S. Core Aggregate T-Bond Market ETF (AGG), in total return format/ With 11782 total number of holdings, AGG is US bond market in miniature. Fears & Greed Awakening. 👉 VIX and VXN are sitting closer to their important levels, 20 and 25 points respectively. 👉 VIX to 50-Day VIX SMA ratio has recently jumped above 1.40, and this is the biggest level over the past twelve months. 👉 VXN to 50-Day VXN SMA ratio has recently jumped above 1.40, and this is the biggest level over the past twelve months. 👉 Difference in 20-day stock and bond returns slumped almost to Zero. Technical observations 👉 AGG technical graph indicates on huge developing Reversed Head-and-Shoulders, with 2-year highs breakthrough. 👉 The nearest target could be considered is multi top, around $108 mark. 👉 In mid- to long term it could be good for stock indices and markets, despite of possible turbulence and seismic activity.
AMEX:AGG
by Pandorra