First Target 72 USD; then, the last leg down will start, maybe it will not go past the lows but that will be the real capitulation and where I'll be ready to buy.
TLT bullish trend into 100 resistance with major Fed decisions coming in the next weeks/months. Has a gap to fill on the way to highest pt Pts are 98.30, 98.70, and 100+ - Shifted narrative from inflation to labor market - Data suggests Fed is very behind the curve - Jackson Hole - FOMC
Stocks heavily sold off Thursday (again), with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) tumbling nearly 500 points, as investors’ fears over a recession surfaced. Some fresh data stoked fears over a possible recession and the notion that the Federal Reserve could be too late to start cutting interest rates. Initial jobless claims rose the most since August 2023....
IEF is a longer maturity, longer duration play on the US Intermediate Treasury segment. The fund focuses on Treasury notes expiring 7-10 years from now, which have significantly higher yield and interest rate sensitivity than the notes that make up our broader 1-10 year benchmark. IEF`s average YTM is significantly higher than US-T Aggregated benchmark's. Of...
Inverse Head & Shoulders NASDAQ:TLT ETF Weekly Chart The NASDAQ:TLT ETF weekly chart, which tracks 20-year+ Treasuries, shows an inverse head & shoulders pattern still intact. 📊 U.S. Treasury funds have attracted billions in inflows over the past couple of weeks, fueled by rising expectations of rate cuts and growing investor confidence in long-term government...
There are several factors that can drive gold prices up in long term. Some of the key factors include: 1. Global Economic Uncertainty: Gold is often seen as a safe-haven asset during times of economic uncertainty or market volatility. Investors tend to flock to gold as a store of value when traditional investments like stocks and bonds are perceived as risky. 2....
TBT is an inverse 20 year Treasury Bill ETF. At present, the Iran Israeli conflict threatens a regional conflict to include the Red Sea and the Easter Mediterranean where oil tankers must navigate to move oil from producer to consumer. Oil price escalation could go hand and hand with geopolitical escalations. Oil and its derivatives are a primary driver of...
... for a 1.39 credit. Comments: Targeting the 52 week low on weakness here after taking off a rung in September.
" NASDAQ:TLT Weekly Chart: Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern was triggered last week. 📈 This could signal a potential reversal and further upside for long-term Treasuries. Are you watching this breakout? #TLT #TechnicalAnalysis #BondMarket #Investing #ChartPatterns"
The 20-year Treasury Bond ETF 'TLT' is looking good now that the Federal Reserve has stated that an interest rate cut could come as early as September if inflation continues to fall. The fact that Fed chairman Jerome Powell is now using dovish language and naming dates for potential cuts is cause enough to consider shifting some money to bonds. The swift selloff...
NASDAQ:TLT breaking out on an absolute and relative term to the S&P500.
US stocks surprised much of Wall Street this year with a strong run that defied decades-high interest rates and recession calls. The rally was fueled by slower inflation and hype over artificial intelligence. But more recently, the Federal Reserve's unwavering higher-for-longer rate stance and a deepening bond-market rout have had a sobering effect on equities...
... for an 87.83/contract debit. Comments: Parking some cap in TLT while I go about "summer things." Selling the -75 call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta long put while having built-in short call defense. Metrics: Break Even/Buying Power Effect: 87.83/contract Max Profit: 1.07/contract (ex. divvies); 1.38/contract (with divvies) ROC...
I'm not sure what's going to happen in the immediate term (1-2 weeks), but after that I think we'll see a bond rally from middle of June into July up above $92 and the possibility of going as high as $100. My base case is that we get a move up to $97ish level, but not ruling out the possibility of retesting the highs of the recent move. However, after July,...
... for a 1.55 credit. Comments: Probably the last addition to my TLT short put ladder for now. Selling the 83's, targeting a break even that is coincident with the 52-week low. A basic bet that the Fed cuts rates ... at some point ... with the additional notion being that I won't have to hang out in it nearly as long as the DTE suggests when they do. ...
... for a 1.19 credit. Comments: Laddering out at intervals ... . Targeting the strike that would result in a break even around the 52-week low on weakness here. A basic bet that the Fed cuts rates ... at some point. I already have rungs on in July through Nov, so adding one here in Dec. This is complimentary to the covered calls I have on In January (See...
Inflation is finally cooling off as inflation gradually loosened its grip on Wall Street and the economy in 2023, raising hopes for a gentler Federal Reserve and further gains for the market in 2024. Stocks rallied to their best 9-weeks stripe over the past 20 years in November and December, 2023 (so-called 'Santa Rally') as investors raised their bets that the...
I'll start with the weekly RSI bullish divergence off the 2022 and 2023 yearly lows. In addition to that, there is also a nice bullish pinbar on the 4M chart. This also hints to a possible bottom/bullish reversal. Price is now pushing against the trendline resistance (from Mar 23' to Jul 24'). Once price is able to break and hold this area it could really...