Get started

TLT

$TLT: Keep an eye on this$TLT has reached the end of a huge weekly and monthly down trend, and made me think it could be a long lasting bottom for fixed income here. Question is: Does this low hold after the next FOMC or not? The daily chart shows a setup where a daily uptrend is set to expire by tomorrow, which could mean the current advance is over, or, perhaps, it needs some time sideways to build for a new move to the upside over time. If you can figure out what bonds will do, you have pretty big odds of getting all the rest right overall, so I'm extremely motivated to figure out what comes next here. Keep an eye out for the daily signal outlook here, and be on guard for a weekly scale breakout to the upside to buy or add to existing longs. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:TLT
by IvanLabrie
Short to C wave, but im a buyer of the DipsI'm both a bull and a bear on the 20yr treasury etf (TLT).. I created a long term buy analysis basis on the bullish cypher pattern I see forming at the conclusion of D leg. I like the yield of the 20yr treasury bond which is over 4%.. The dividend yield on the 20yr Treasury etf is 2.49% currently, and I expect it to rise. The dividend is paid monthly. I see the yield rising as the price of TLT declines . I see the dividend yield potentially rising to 4% , that would be an outstanding monthly yield for long term holders. You can also sell puts here, or calls to generate revenue. Long term buyer, and Call writer (which will lower my cost basis, and return use the upfront premium to buy more shares of this etf, further increasing the yield and dividends)
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by moneyflow_trader
TLT - US 20 Year Treasury SELLOFF Treasury yield is the effective annual interest rate that the U.S. government pays on one of its debt obligations, expressed as a percentage. Put another way, Treasury yield is the annual return investors can expect from holding a U.S. government security with a given maturity. Treasury yields don't just affect how much the government pays to borrow and how much investors earn by buying government bonds. They also influence the interest rates consumers and businesses pay on loans to buy real estate, vehicles, and equipment. Treasury yields also show how investors assess the economy's prospects. The higher the yields on long-term U.S. Treasuries, the more confidence investors have in the economic outlook. But high long-term yields can also be a signal of rising inflation expectations. Treasury yields are inversely related to Treasury prices. Treasury yields can go up, sending bond prices lower, if the Federal Reserve increases its target for the federal funds rate (in other words, if it tightens monetary policy), or even if investors merely come to expect the fed funds rate to go up. An inverted yield curve on which the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has declined below that on the 2-year Treasury note (to cite just one popular benchmark) has usually preceded recessions. A rising yield indicates falling demand for Treasury bonds, which means investors prefer higher-risk, higher-reward investments. STONKS GO UP, FORCING THE FED TO REMAIN HAWKISH! A falling yield suggests the opposite.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by EpicEconomics
The Anatomy of the TLT; Cycle analysis by ThestructuredThis is my dissection of the TLT chart into the classic stages of a bubble, with time cycles. Each stage is present and the TLT appears to be in a bottoming process. I'm a big fan of using Fib channels combined with time cycles, because with fib channels, you are looking for a certain line to get hit, wherever that may be, as opposed to traditional fib retracements and extensions where you are looking for exact numbers. I find that with regular fibs, price often overshoots or undershoots them, whereas using a channel, it is more so a time based touch of a line, which si why it works so well with time cycles. Last year I had used these fib channels and cycles to find the current bottom on the TLT, which was an exact touch of the 161.8, right at a (red) time cycle trough region, and also at a strong volume profile node. There are larger, converging cycle troughs shown which should be somewhere in the September area of 2023. It is unclear at this time whether that region will be a higher low, or 'the bottom' (assuming that the 92 area wasn't already 'the' bottom, which it might have been. In any case, I am planning on investing this fall in that major trough zone, regardless of if price is higher or lower than it is now, when that timing region comes. Disclaimer: These charts and posts are a reflection of my own analysis and opinions based on my own analysis. I could be wrong, nothing is guaranteed, and my posts are for educational purposes only, as they are my own pure speculation, and should not be taken as investment advice of any kind. Do you own DD!
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by thestructured
Bonds to Start the YearAs I mentioned in my 2022 EOY letter... with actual meaningful interest rates now a thing bonds can return yield. While bonds issued in the last decade (or two) are getting hammered in value as higher rate bonds are being issued presently. I think the market is pricing all of this in and if we do get a tapering of rate increases we will see bond values increase. TLT NASDAQ:TLT has a good setup for a TS recapture on the Weekly timeframe from last week. The trade going into 2023 is for the October 2021 low on TLT to hold and move up over the year to recapture 135.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by norok
$XAUUSD: Monitoring positioning...Could gold be close to a long lasting bottom similar to the last time Commercial Hedgers covered their shorts and went net long? The last two times this happened we had a massive rally in precious metals each time. I do see some interesting variables at play that could prove a bottom in gold is happening. We have some potential fundamental variables that could contribute to that: The UK set a precedent for countries embarking on a more market friendly path, at the cost of rising deficits, to potentially attempt to save their local economies from the destruction rising rates and withdrawing liquidity (and hiking taxes) creates. If more countries start cutting taxes, and reversing their hawkish stances over time, we could see a reaction in the gold market. China is at an interesting juncture, with rumors of a change in leadership, a big CCP congress coming and people clearly sick of zero COVID measures, if there is a change in those variables it could also set some big trades in motion. Fed policy is already priced in by markets, bonds might be close to bottom or at a bottom, pricing in future rate cuts. CPI print coming, slowing of inflation would further reinforce the idea that maybe doing what the UK is starting to do makes sense. Many economists and fund managers agree that the Fed is making a mistake destroying the economy (and the world indirectly) attempting to curb inflation when the cause of inflation was govt action and lock downs and not monetary policy itself. A recession is clearly in motion, and won't be resolved too quickly, but the effect on gold and other commodities might be quick once these puzzle pieces align. From a technical, historical and positioning standpoint: Futures positioning is approaching a critical juncture, if Commercial hedgers cover all shorts, we will get a big signal to go long Gold. Each time it happened we had massive and lasting rallies in precious metals. At this pace, we can expect them to be flat or net long within 3-4 weeks. There is a Time@Mode weekly signal that expires in exactly 3 weeks! Yearly Time@Mode trend is up for another 3-4 years, and currently near a low risk buy zone with a stop @ 1517.18. If prices stay sideways after rallying above 1750, and maybe tagging the invasion level repeatedly, we could form a new yearly mode, which could propel gold higher for a few more years, once breaking out from the range, as per my chart. This fits with yearly time expiration in the long term $SPX chart and the idea that we are likely to see sideways/bearish action in markets to catch up to prior historical periods. Oil is likely repeating a similar move as the period in the year 2000-2003 as well, this chart idea from @timwest suggests we can get a correction in oil, to then get a big rally until it peaks near $500. This also fits with the idea that we could get a similar move in equities as in 2000-2009. A big decline in oil eventually sets the stage for support in equities with a time lag of 6/12 months as well. At some point, more governments are likely to reverse course on their destructive hawkish ways following the UK, this could be probable after elections if Trump wins the presidency in the US. Just something to consider, this is net bullish for gold and oil likely, as it would increase deficits and stimulate the economy to come back from a recession, globally. The culprit, is lock downs and fiscal policy more so than monetary policy errors, people will gradually realize this. All in all, I think the message is clear: odds of commodities outperforming equities are big, if we repeat a period like 2000 to 2011, or something like the 70s, and at some point we will get a clean shot at a bottom in oil and gold, which will likely be monster trades to put on. Stay away from equities, perhaps focus on miners, and other names that fared well in the aforementioned periods (some healthcare names did well, energy, gold and silver miners, copper/lithium). The EV adoption is a big fundamental trend as well, I think this sets the stage to get a big rally in lithium, for which I am positioned already in $LTHM. Have to time it well in regards to metals and oil, but we are getting closer to getting clarity on this home run trend and I think gold is a big and important cue to get a sense of timing here. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
7
TLT 101.13 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingTechnical & Trade View TLT ishares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Trade View 101.13 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 99.00 Technicals Primary support is 99.00 Primary upside objective 102.85 Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 101.50 Failure below 99.00 opens a test of 97.90 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish Institutional Insights According to analysts at Goldman Sachs ‘ Based on our valuation-adjusted estimates of preliminary data from the US Treasury ,foreign investors net purchased long-term US securities in September. Foreigninvestors net purchased long-term Treasuries and US equities, and net sold long-term US agency securities and corporate bonds. Private sector investors drove flows across asset classes.Japan was the largest net seller of long-term Treasuries in September, on our valuation-adjusted estimates, as the Ministry of Finance Intervened in foreignexchange markets to support the Yen for the first time in 24 years. Our estimates suggest that this was the largest one-month net sale of long-term Treasuries byJapanese investors since the Treasury’s securities holdings data began in 2012(although March 2022 came close). Belgium was the largest net buyer of long-termTreasuries at the country level. At the regional level, Europe and Latin America netpurchased long-term USTs while Asia was a net seller’
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by Tickmill