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TLT

Aftermath of the Fed rate hike - NASDAQ, S&P500, SOXL, ENPHJust a quick rehash on the few that I have been closely following of late, especially after the Fed raised rates 0.75%, as expected; but the important bit was in the narrative (not analyzed here). The NASDAQ futures had 11,900 simply broken through, and the next day followed through with a slight gap down, as global markets react. The S&P500 ETF, SPY, similarly broke down below 388, and closed at its low of the day. Both have bearish candlesticks with momentum, and MACD is supportive of further downside, likely to visit the last low (and possibly exceed) within the coming weeks. In the same light, SOXL (as covered previously) had all its bullishness invalidated since last week. There is a slight divergence with the MACD struggling to maintain a slight bullish stance, but the candlestick is just pain bearish, period. This is highly likely to exceed its previous low and go below 10. ENPH, the fascinating one, is amazingly holding at the lower end of the recent range. It appears to most likely break down to the lower end of the lower range, about 275, to meet the 55EMA. Yes, this is one that is above its daily 55EMA. MACD however, is less bullish with a cross under its Signal line. 235 is a critical support, after 255 (if it is to hold its bullish case). Overall, bearish as previously expected, to the last low for the major indexes and the corresponding ETFs. In the wider scope (not shown here), the USD futures is getting a pump, and both TIP and TLT may be bottoming out. The latter being some deviation from the recent trend where almost all drop except the USD.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Auguraltrader
Long Duration Bonds (TLT)We haven't had to manage cycle risk, on a sustained basis to the downside, since 2008-2009 and 2000-2002. The biggest problem in financial markets right now is there's no Event. This is just Cycle-Risk and we haven't had to manage cycle risk - on a sustained basis to the downside - since '08-'09, and 2000-2000 before then. The Fed is in QT. Financial conditions are still in accommodative territory, according to the Financial Conditions Index, and we have a long way to go. We will not see any dovish actions from the Fed until the economy deteriorates significantly. I'm convinced we're past the peak in terms of inflationary pressures. Looking at our portfolio, the #1 thing we aren't allocated to is duration. I think the long bond could rally 20-35% from here. I think when it moves, it's not going to let you back in the trade. The world is short-duration right now. Tons of cash on the sidelines. The dollar rising has been supporting U.S. equities. When it deflates, there will be a significant change in style factors. Expect a significant reversal in sector and style factors ahead. Simple rule on when to enter a long bond trade: It's compelling, given historical backtest, to go long the long bond when the year-over-year inflation rate peaks. (18-20% annualized) YoY Inflation data: fred.stlouisfed.org NFCI: fred.stlouisfed.org
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by RHTrading
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Long the Treasury MarketHave you ever been told that stocks only go up? How about not trying to time the market? If you have, you might just be the exit liquidity the credit market needs. In this chart I will help you avoid losing money in the next two quarters by rolling your portfolio into cash and the treasury market. If you have followed the last few charts, you are already sitting in a cash portfolio as we head into a disinflationary period. That's right, inflation has already peaked even though the credit market is pricing in a potential 100 basis point hike this month. What isn't being priced in is the recession coming around q4 or q1. This is an opportunity for you to roll some cash into the treasury market and make some gains on top of not losing money. You may have heard something like "the treasury market is broken bro". This is from people that don't understand the dynamics of the treasury market. The treasury instruments do not perform well when interests rates are going up, but the up and coming recession will sharply slice inflation in a very short period of time. This will result in a fed pause. This isn't priced in yet because interest expectations are too high to account for a rapid recessionary disinflation. Look at how quickly TLT started to make gains after the fed stimulated the economy during the pandemic. This is the ideal time to start a DCA into the treasury market because the credit market is still struggling to come to terms with the fact that a soft landing isn't going to happen. When they do, the treasuries will pump in anticipation of a fed pause or even a pivot. I don't think a pivot will happen without a pause, but the credit market, being the pack of wild dogs they are, will conflate the two. This is a trade that might have a very small bit of downside to it at first because of a potential basis point increase, so if you can't handle that, a DCA over the next month or two is best.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by coinhoIio
This is where the recession level is. #Gold #GC #TLT #TNGold once again in history will probably tell us if we are going in full recession mode (ala 2008) or not. 1670-1680 been defended fiercely four times in the last 30 months, markets are going to see how much fear is there one more time .. heading into FED September 20th FOMC meeting. A strong daily close under that level would be the open door to something bigger than what we have experienced in the last nine month. Gold here as the sum of overall 10Y Yields, TLT, TN futures market directions. EUR and Yen of course all dependent on them.
COMEX:GC1!
by Artes_
2
TLT nearing bottom Still in line with my previous analysis. I approach this from an Elliot Wave perspective with Fibonacci relationship. To me this looks like a macro ABC with final leg down reaching extremes. We are likely in a bullish divergence territory on a Weekly Chart. The chart above is Daily for easier wave count to pin point where C might end. The support box is in gray; this is an area where a price could react with a strong bounce or reversal. As you can see we are already there so support could be found very soon. Another fib support coming up in the 90-96 range where I feel there is a strong possibility for a bottom (not guaranteed, hunting bottoms is a dangerous game). If we take a trend line in wave C from ii to iv and measure the trajectory of where v should end, it also points at a region of 90-96. If the market presents this opportunity it has a number of supports coming together all in that particular area. This bottom could mark the top in US10Y and other treasury bonds since they move inverse to TLT. Also the dollar index is hinting at a top and pushing extremes so I expect a reversal or a top in Sep-Oct timeframe. The month of September / October (2022) might come with fire works! Not a financial advice. Cheers,
NASDAQ:TLT
by Elliot618
2
SPY Weekly review and forecast: August 22, 2022Last week brought the first sell side activity the markets have seen in nearly 6 weeks. The market digested comments within the FED minutes as being dovish, and was on track to extend the rally through most of the week. The tone changed on Thursday and Friday and the market was unable to hold the 4300 level. Most of the selling was precipitated by technology and the financials, while energy finished positive on the week. Volatility has also begun to expand as the VIX finished positive on the week. The weekly expected move in the SPY is also greater than last week's by almost a full point. SKEW closed flat-to-down week over week, but is still in an uptrend. SPY -1.16% (+/- 8.3) QQQ -2.28% (+/- 8.89) IWM -2.85 (+/- 4.97) ____________________ Technology -2.5% (+/- 4.09) Energy +1.26 (+/- 1.26) Financials -1.69% (+/- 0.83) ____________________ VIX: +12.19% (23.07; ~50% IV Percentile) _____________________ The rally we've seen since June has been impressive, so a pull back was going to come eventually. Its important to zoom out and look at the big picture perspective. The market may have re-entered the sideways channel I outlined at the beginning of the month. I'm looking for this week to have a mildly bearish bias, but most probably staying within the expected move in advance of the FED's Jackson Hole meeting (so think between 4150 - 4300 in SPX). I'm going to be keeping a close eye on the Bonds as well as Energy. If the Bonds continue to fall, it will be more fuel on the inflation fire. With regards to energy, stocks like XOM are at key inflection points on their Volume Profiles; selling in energy now would weigh heavily on the indices.
AMEX:SPY
by InnerMotionTrading
TLT Bond ETF Setup for Reversal to LONGNASDAQ:TLT On the 4H Chart, TLT is sitting on minor support with major support below that. It is near to the bottom of open Bollinger Bands and is inclined to move through the basis line closer to the upper band. Significant resistance is 5 and 15% upside. I see a swing long trade with the stop loss below the major support and targets before the major resistances, yielding a very good reward for risk. Call options are another possibility to consider.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by AwesomeAvani
Update on long duration bondsHello everybody! I wanted to make a quick update on where I think the 10y and 30y bonds will be headed in the next few months, as in the past, I've been talking quite a bit about deflation and a recession being close. We have seen TLT rise significantly, yet I think there is more upside. In the short term, I can see a further pullback, but in my honest opinion, the drop over the last two days was caused mainly by Pelosi visiting Taiwan and bonds getting overbought on lower timeframes. The 30y yields were rejected at the monthly pivot, while the 10y yields bounced at support and were denied at resistance. Yields are still in a short-term bearish trend, and there is no confirmation of a reversal yet, although the trend might have changed. It all depends on the situation between China and the US, as the more the tensions between those countries increase, the higher inflation will be, and therefore the higher rates will be. If China starts aggressively selling US bonds, this could create chaos in the funding markets. If the US starts banning Chinese imports or exports, the US bond market could explode, and yields go to the moon. This would force the Fed to step in and do unlimited QE / yield curve control. Essentially we are stuck in a scenario of mutually assured destruction here, and there is no way either one will come out as a winner in the short term. I believe that we are in a deflationary/disinflationary period, which could be disturbed at any moment if China invades Taiwan. The Russia/Ukraine war pushed inflation higher at a time when inflation was about to start slowing down, and a China/Taiwan war could push inflation higher at a time when inflation was about to slow down. TLT could quickly reach 125-135 in the next few months. However, I don't believe bond yields are going negative soon. It will be challenging for the market to have negative nominal yields when inflation is so high and at a time when the Fed might be forced to intervene and do YCC.
NASDAQ:TLT
by BitcoinMacro
"Risk On" RegimesThis is how I get a general feel for the market AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:NQ1! . First, simply looking at the relation between NASDAQ:QQQ and AMEX:XLU This is to get a gauge by asking.. is the market buying tech/growth, or is the market buying utilities (which is more of a bear market exposure "safer" sector)? I don't get complicated with that examination. I use a directionally colored 50 day simple moving average to determine that relationship. It is currently pointing up (long tech). Now for the stuff going on at the bottom (thank you to @jroche1973 for the one on the top)... Each of these are relational "indicators" similar to the idea of keeping tabs on the relationship between tech/utilities. The 3 are: - Equity vol TVC:VIX vs. Bond vol. TVC:MOVE - Short term "less risky" fixed income NASDAQ:SHY vs high yield "more risky" bonds AMEX:HYG - VIX contango (measuring the current VIX relative to a 3 month Vol Index CBOE:VIX3M all 3 of these gauges are currently in "risk on" regime for how I use them. I write this 30 minutes before a FOMC meeting, with expectations of a 75 basis point hike for the US, with a 100 point hike being on the table as well to combat inflation. This will clearly move the market one direction or the other depending on what Powell says.. My current guess on the FED situation is they will start to slow hikes Q3 --> stop hikes Q4 --> start easing/expansion by Q1 2023. It's all cycles. This is all pretty dependent on inflation as well, but my $ is on that inflation just peaked out at 9.1 CPI and the FED will/has overtightened to the point of too much growth deceleration. All in the name of killing inflation (which does have to be killed) All this being said.. bonds, rolling VIX stucture, current tech/utilities, and equity vol/bond vol are all pointing to a more risk on mode currently. Not to mention bad news has been getting bid up... depends on time horizon for each individual, but this isn't the worst spot to allocate some longer term tech holdings and some long duration bond exposure IMO. This can change quickly literally within the hour depending on what Powell says. Nonetheless, I prefer to look at this stuff as where that is where more of the "smart money" gives hints as to what's going on underneath what we see in market pricing. Fixed income typically has bigger brains than equity bros (sorry equity bros). At the end of the day I'm accumulating and long CME:BTC1! , the hardest money every created. I will also be long the long duration end of bonds NASDAQ:TLT AMEX:TMF . Have a good one and hope this sparks some fun ideas for you all.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by WalterDeezNutz