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TLT

Consumer Sentiment - 10 AM ESTThe 007s are back, we know full well what that means. Gap to Trap the Safety Trade Baggies again. They never learn. ____________________________________________________ CDs - 3/6 Months @ 2.10 and 2.20, Yr @ 3.30, 4/5Yr @ 3.40.... If ya believe, load the woodshed. Prior to making the same mistake for the 4t time, ask yourselves one simple question - why are these not following the decline in Yields? For the gang who couldn't shoot straight - answers are never a clear target. We'll continue to take the Bond Ape's Bong Money. Toke up Dino and crew, we're hunting you.
FRED:UMCSENT
by HK_L61
TLT bottoms in weekly hammer & divergence;but 108 still possibleTLT may have already bottomed out & the US10Y topped out with weekly hammer candles. TLT may find equilibrium at 132, my inflation pivot zone while US10Y may stabilize at 3.6% inflection point retesting its upchannel. TLT is now completing its M-pattern & has just entered my bullish BUY ZONE at 114 to 120. DCA Dollar cost averaging up from this point presents a very good risk-to-reward ratio. MORE DOWNSIDE? TLT may still go down to retest 108 where it bottomed multiple times in the past. Inflation expectations are slowing & the economy is starting to contract with oil & commodities turning down last week with investors pricing in a coming recession. Not trading advice.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by xtremerider8
2
Takuri Line : reversal sign.Alright, interesting candle on the one week on TLT : In my opinion this is a Takuri Line. The body is small and the close happens near the high (I am not 100% satisfied with this classification since it has an upper shadow but it is 16% of overall candle). The lower shadow is more than three times the body length (3.37). So it fits the takuri line definition. It happens at an extreme low - lowest point in over 120 weeks - which would also be a good environment for the Takuri line to appear. It is statistically a solid reversal candle. If we gap up tomorrow and finish above 116 in the next three weeks we could be setting a new up trend that leads us to 132 - 133.... (we couled retest 108) IT IS VERY BULLSIH - I know. I think macro factors favor a more bullish bias... we'll see. Good luck.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by joce-69003
US10Y making H&S topping pattern with long weekly hammer?US10Y TNX may be topping out. It is both a measure of economic activity & inflation expectation. So is the economy starting to slow down or is inflation slowing down shortterm? It will take years for inflation to come down. If the FED can pull inflation down to at least 4% in a soft landing, it will already be a big success. Stagflation (rising inflation in a slowing economy) is still a big risk, which may take years to recover. A hard landing & aggressive rate hikes may be devastating for stocks but the economy may recover faster. More pain more gain. A topping TNX will be good for TLT bonds & growth stocks. Next supports are 3% & the H&S neck at 2.7%. A measured move for H&S may take TNX to the yellow 2% upper pivot zone, retesting the blue wedge or maybe to retest the big red downchannel from 1981. Not trading advice
TVC:US10YShort
by xtremerider8
Leading Indicators are very BearishThe JNK ETF is heading further down with a big bearish Marubozu that is the YTD low -> Bearish for equities. The IWM ETF is also heading further down for a lower low with a bearish Marubozu engulfing -> Bearish for equities The DJT ETF ended on a recent low too -> Bearish for equities The VALUG has a bearish candle for more downside -> Bearish for equities The TIPS ETF bearish marubozu ending on a YTD low-> Bearish for equities The TLT ETF is diving -> no flight to safety, just selling. The VIX is coiling -> bearish outlook for equities, more volatility incoming when it spikes! The HG1! copper futures ended on a strong low for the week, and will be attacking support. Expect failure. Overall, very Bearish bias on equities for the next couple of weeks, and at least until the VIX spikes very hard before retracing (it is only coiling now...)
AMEX:JNKShort
by Auguraltrader
Yields / Fed Funds / Rates / Inflation / 007s / TLT / ZN / ZBYou can't fix silly. You can't fix stupid. The Bond Market isn't going to fix anything, it assures ruin. ____________________________________________________ Buy the Dip hasn't quite worked out. TLT will head to Sub 52. You were warned long ago exactly what is happening would. And explained in no uncertain terms exactly why. DX back to 125? Yeah... it's how you end up in ruin. Europe first. TNX Yield times 2.81 - follow along or lose.
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by HK_L61
3
TLT may return to 132-135 neutral zone as a flight to safety.TNX 10-yr yield may have peaked out as investors rotate to the safety of bonds in the 120-114 accumulation zone. TLT has completed a big M-pattern stopping at almost perfect FIBO levels. This ABC wave has already made a 300% retracement from the ATH of 173.89 made last 9Mar2020 before pandemic striked. The 132-135 zone will be some sort of neutral area for determining inflation or deflation. It is also the neck zone of the M-pattern. As it fell quickly from this zone, the rebound will also be very fast looking at the volume profile that has a large space in between. 5 impulse waves & 3 ABC corrective waves have end this EW cycle & a new cycle shall begin as TLT returns to the baseline of my slanted FIBO CHANNEL where wave 3 had started at Feb2011. Not trading advice
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by xtremerider8
TNX ZN TKT ZB - 10Year / 20Year / 30YearSh_t Mixed remain Bonds... every flight to Safety has been utterly and systematically crushed. It will be again and again as our Bond Market losses its Pillars of which there are 4. One by one these are failing. Longer-term, the lose/lose proposition will compound. _____________________________________________________________________________ Short term, we'll see how YCC and an overall Market Panic can trend Yields. The Fed has permitted the Bond Market to generate the necessary adjustments. Strenght - historically has been in control of only the short end. Operation twist is no longer relevant, the FED can simply clip coupons and trend into expiration of Holdings while reinvesting across the entire Curve. Sadly, engaging in Yield Curve Control (YCC) crossed the Rubicon. My thesis has been proven entirely correct - instability by design.
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
S&P500 against Bonds during Rate Hikes.This chart displays the ratio of S&P500 against the 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF on the 1W time-frame. The green trend-line represents the Federal Funds Rate. The RSI on the pane below the chart, is illustrated on the 1M time-frame and based on the Channel Down it has been since May 2021, it resembles more the price action of late 2003/2004. Interestingly enough, it was in mid 2004 that the Fed Rate has started to rise following the stock market recovery from the DotCom crash. The Fibonacci Channel with the 0.236, 0.382, 05, 0.618, 0.786 retracement levels is applied on this ratio and since the stock market recovery from the 2007/08 Subprime Mortgage crisis, the Fib 0.618 band was the Resistance. Now it appears that we have moved a level higher on the 0.786 Fib. This model shows that there is no major crash ahead of us and most likely we will trade within those bands for a few years more before a bigger correction/ recession on the stock market. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SP:SPX
by TradingShot
5