TLT - 20Yr Bond ETFThe Monthly Chart continues to expand in Range.
This is interesting as the Range Broadens the implications
are quite Dire longer term.
TLT was sold heavily prior to the ROC SPike in TNX.
ZN was sold on Volume as well, an Instrument we have repeatedly
discussed for its weakening structure.
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Attempting to apply "Convention and Rationale" to an aging Trend
is generally, an Idea whose validity should begin to come into question.
FASB 56 alone is enough to bring the operations within the Shadows of
the Bond Market under duress over time.
It is clear the BIS is backstopping this operation - at what cost, we can
only surmise.
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The Real Issue moving forward for the Bond Complex is one of simplicity.
Rates will, in the Short Ter react to Policy and the perceived threat of
Inflation.
Shadow Operations will require time to unfold, but we believe this process
has begun, it will not be brought into he light of Day any time soon, but will
eventually, appear in the form of unexplained loss of confidence around the
Globe.
This will, of course, be devastating to the US Dollar. rendering it a 50 Level
once 82 and then 77 are broken.
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The competition between China and the United States is well underway
and is accelerating on many fronts.
With the US Losing its advantages due to its inability to produce Value
across former dominant Sectors of Global Trade - a 22nd Century pivot to
Asia will continue to gain in both scope and scale, as well as velocity.
Financial Isolationism within the approaching rebalancing of Global
financial Arrangements will render the US to a weighted SDR status
with less than favorable terms and conditions.
This will have a devastating effect on the US Bond Market.
The curve will be converted to a Perpetual Duration with Principals
retired. A balance sheet liability which cannot be reduced without
far greater and far more insidious distortions.
It can never be eliminated.
Never, it is not mathematically possible. Therefore it will be erased to
bring balance. Think of it as the FDIC/SPIC coming to save $250K of your
$20 Million.
You lose, they win.
They default in an extraordinary manner and provide token assurance
that... one day... they swear to make you whole.
It will never happen.
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This is axiomatic, pure, and simple.
Regardless of the Gyrations... The Future is not "Uncertain" with respect
to Bonds and how they will be all but eliminated.
TLT
TNX - Monthly Historical Chart 40 Year ChannelThe Event which will provide relief to the Bond Complex is the Federal Reserve
walking back its most recent Policy Statement.
The Short End of the Curve witnessed an aggressive move of 6-9 Bips. This doesn't
appear to be much on the surface of it.
Unfortunately, it is.
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The Yield Curve is not effectively communicating at either end and throughout the
Curve.
Far too much is made of prior Paradigms, with a real lack of understanding of the Glacial
movements in the Bond Complex.
40 years is a long time - an unparalleled Bull Market in Binds coming off the Volcker Era
after the Whip Inflation Now Era.
Price in trend - it remains in Trebbt as the sheer largess of the Bond Market is 11X that
of Equities.
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The Risks remain to Rates rising.
Hopefully - there is not a disorderly eruption as it would wreak havoc in ways we have
not seen in a very long time.
TLT - Daily / 3 Drives @ 149 and Fails
Currently the 10 Year Note Yield @ 1.725 -0.008 -0.47%.
What seemingly took a long time to begin to complete finally did.
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There is a great deal in the Wind with respect to TLT presently.
LArger Daily Gaps well below with Price Objectives extending to the
134 to 139 Levels - attendant Gap FIlls included.
It will depend on ZN's breakdown and whether Yeidls simply Sky to our
overhead Price Objectives 1.82 / 1.91 / 2.02 / 2.12 / 2.28 to 3.50
The Inflation Recalc will provide cover for a Retracement next week.
Exceeding the 2021 Highs will be a stark warning for the Bond Holders
who have been smoked for 1000 Bips in several Months.
Chasing Highs while the Inflation persistence was building in all Core
Data... generally unwise.
We have maintained that Wave 4 would be an Everything Must Go Sale.
SO far, so good, it's a THesis that time and again has proven to be correct
and how long it extends will depend on a number of factors.
We don't see a larger Equity Sell as supportive in a rising rate environment.
The SHort end of the Curve appears to be supportive as well.
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McDonald's entered 2022 with 14.5% price increases across the Menu.
Big Mac's in Bonds give way to Filet o' Fish.
$TLT selling off to $138-141 before rallying higherTLT looks to be close to finding a bottom. I could see TLT finding a bottom in the $138-141 range then basing for a couple of weeks before rallying higher in early November.
Key dates and levels on the chart.
My macro thesis is that we're at the start of a larger pullback in markets and money will flow to treasuries as a safety net. Dates align on both the S&P bottom and TLT top around March... Let's see how it plays out.
Bitcoin, Treasuries, USD Retesting, All Telling Same StoryWhatever your opinion of these assets, they're all behaving in a fairly similar fashion, and they all have been behaving somewhat similarly over the last 3 years.
No surprise, bitcoin and foreign currencies ten to outperform when financial conditions are loose and loosening. The vice versa is likely true as financial conditions tighten.
Interestingly, if you pull up the charts on an individual basis, they all are retesting flags on a technical level. That doesn't mean they won't break back up and rally, but all three showing the same sign seems to add more weight behind likelihood that markets are in for a break upward in real rates and reduced liquidity / financial conditions.
TLT - DailyRemarkable how poorly this has performed.
The 2 / 10 is causing some issues as there is a fear of contagion.
After $12 Trillion in Corporate Junk Issuance to BUY Shares in 2021...
Convention would lead one to assume UST's would be bid in greater size
and yet the Short end is now catching the attention as 2Yr's went off without
a hitch, No Fed, No Need.
The ISsue is the Long end of the Curve is eating itself as it believes Inflation
will be a persistent RISK.
Housing... another issue Globally.
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ZB isn't wrong, nor are the Buyers on Strike with 3 back to back failed auctions.
TLT breaking the 50 with ZN Pointing South require a wait n' see position.
The AO has dipped into Negative territory... while the price struggles to hold.
Neagtive Divergeences abound.
TLT - Ranging for nowLike everything Else the 007s are contending with an aggressive FED
which is hell-bent on Full control.
Long End 30/20 Cross, Short end muted to heavily Intervened, to put it mildly.
Regardless - in Real Terms, Inflation continues to Eat and Feed on everything.
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Even the DX is confused as to where to go and what to do there.
Crypto continues to perform its SOAK FUNCTION.
Sopping up excess liquidity in order to prevent errant behaviors elsewhere,
by example AMC GME NOK and Penny's.
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Keeping everyone and everything in a "Manic State" is working well for them.
Not so much for Us...
Bonds Vs BTC and Equities What does everyone think about this?
This is the conclusion forecast of all the previous ideas I've been working up to
I don't see many people talking about the bigger picture of what is actually happening with Smart Money VS Retail
TNX and BTC show the correlation
TLT and the NDX show a similar but opposite correlation
Bonds lead then Risk assets follow accordingly
Wouldnt this make sense fundamentally?
BTC Is a hedge against inflation so it copies the 10-year bond outpacing inflation
Equities especially growth stocks are not a hedge to inflation so they have an opposite correlation to what interest rates are doing
I think something big is going to happen and a lot of people will get shaken out.
You can see the big fear narratives all stacking up before the new year!
The whales have been trick or treating this holiday season and I think this X mas rally was a big trick for all the retail shrimp to get caught in the feasting season.
The Only Trade You Need to Make This Year. #SteeplongendThe long End Of Yield Curve will steepen.
Inflation running hot and CB can't hike rates.
Nobody will buy 20-30Y.
Yields Run, TLT Plummets
Double Top with Divergence.
Both, fundamentals and Technicals there.
This may be the only trade you need to make this year.
Everyone will continue to believe inflation is under control until they don't.
This is a trade we can actually see happening in front of us but, nobody has this priced in yet.
Spike Reversal Pattern on Bonds (TLT)Yesterday's close on NASDAQ:TLT broke the day's range causing many to think it was going lower. However, today's open reverses that sentiment by opening back above that short term range.
Bonds are a very cyclically trending instrument (see below) and at some point the down move of the last few days was likely to reverse. This could be the setup with a low risk stop to get long TLT.
Closing (Margin): TLT June 17th 2 x 171/153 Back Ratio Spread... for a 39.10 credit.
Comments: Opened this puppy up for a 36.45 debit on TLT strength. (See Post Below). Taking some risk off by taking profit here a little shy of my profit target, as I've got another short TLT setup on already (a March 18th 151/2 x 163 back ratio). 2.65 ($265) profit; 7.3% ROC.
20 year plus bond etfSince mid July, The price of the 20 year plus Bonds has touched or tested the top orange line about 8 times and has retraced 61% more times than not. Bonds going as low as $148 would meet the 200 ema and would be a retracement of 61% of the previous low. The previous has been broken. Let's see where the next level of support is. If this falls, the Yields should rise. Normally, stocks fall "for the most part" when this happens. Let's see if this holds true!
Short Bonds - why, and market review
Simple chart - There is a small dotted green line up top showing you divergence in the RSI.
You can see what happened, Bonds went way up. Now we have a much bigger divergence the other way in red.
So this sell off that saw the ES touched the 4500 area three times this week reminds me of the September low at 4250 same price action - which thrust up 500 points.
Both the Nasdaq and E Mini Futures returned to almost exactly 50% Fib weekly retracement - not luck, not a sell off in my opinion but just enough to confuse and liquidate a bunch of people.
I am short vol through a long position in SVXY outright and short bonds through TLT through 154 PUT options. The market is off the lows but most likely there will be an opportunity Monday to get in.
My upside target 4620 on the ES Futures to take these positions off - however I think we can go to ALL TIME HIGHS before puking epically - as the Fed taper is happening but we'll only get the details at Dec 15th Fed meeting.
If we get back to 4500 area in the ES - I will look to take a long positions through Futures, however did want that risk on over the weekend.
The orange arrows are a measure of volatility.
Six hour chart.
$TLT Retrace and GoThis also looked to be a valid bearish cipher followed by a possible bullish 5-0 patter. However, I decided to assume that a double bottom has completed its measured move and will follow DOW's law with a 50% retrace. I believe the trend is still strong and after the correction will reach newer highs. Personally, I'm long here but acknowledge the short-term downside risk. Good Luck!
Leading Indicators are BURNTAs forewarned, the Leading Indicators were previously pointing to a burn out, and now half of the leads are burnt.
JNK and VALUG are bearish, as are TLT and VIX indicating bearishness.
IWM, TIPS, and DJT have failed any bullish indication, skewing towards bearishness.
The S&P500 futures are at support now... likely to break down, even for the beginning of a month. Overwhelmed by the "shock" of a new variant, perhaps it is time.
IMHO, Omicron is a precursor... it should be mild, but its existence is indicative of the next wave. So, not to be ignored, and especially not to be forgotten. This is like Nature's forewarning of 2022.
Stay safe!