TLT/TLT5 Indicates TLT BBOTThe current value of the ratio of TLT to its leveraged product is equal to the monthly closes of the last two blast off points, resulting in 16% and 20% rallies within 2-5 months.
TLT
TLT Double B O T (BBOT Bond Blast Off Time)TLT at every support including the daily RSI. BBOT. Bond Blast Off Time.
TLT +50% Every Time This Happens and It's Happening NowTLT/SPX Monthly RSI (8 Period Close)
It makes sense to analyze the most common institutional portfolio allocation (Equities and Bonds) rather than Equities or Bonds separately. Most investors focus on Fed Funds, unemployment, the business cycle, rates, to analyze the bond market. But those metrics are poorly correlated to returns at best. When you focus on allocation, as in Bonds plus Equities, you start making some progress. That's exactly what this chart represents; where the money is going and when. Hint: it's going into Bonds. Soon.
BBOT (Bonds Blast Off Time) is here
TLT/FEDFUNDS might be indicating BBOT (Bonds Blast Off Time)Slope of the ratio between Bonds and US Rates looks like 2008 and 2019, right before blast off time.
Only Three Times: Great Depression, Nixon Shock, NowThe quarterly RSI of the ratio of Bond Yields to Equities has only reached the current level twice in the last 100 years, once during the Great Depression and once during the Nixon Shock years.
Rolling (IRA): TLT Feb 21st 100 Calls to the 95 Calls... for a 1.09 credit.
Comments: Looked at all my options here for the rolling of the short call aspect of my covered calls -- rolling down, rolling down and out, rolling out as is, rolling to shorter duration and down ... . Going with rolling down in the same expiry for a 1.09 credit.
Resulting cost basis: 89.11.
It still remains a bet that the Fed will cut rates at some point, just with lower max profit potential.
TLT tends to bottom at the same level of TLT/XLETLT seems to bottom at a consistent level of the ratio of bonds to energy represented by TLT/XLE. TLT is currently at the level associated with macro bottoms and the start of major bond market rallies.
$TLT: Time for the bond market to wake up TLT at its trend line support, peak volumes, macd looks ready to curl up, last 3 times rsi was this low we saw a considerable bounce, plus a good cpi report on Thursday should provide the catalyst needed to cause a bounce in the bond markets.
MOVE INDEX A whole lot of FEAR today !!!The chart posted is that of the move index The Vix of the Bond market As you can see to the right of the chart Today Spike Outside of the bb bands . I am Long calls in TLT 90 strike 2026
VGLT - Correction to 72 USDFirst Target 72 USD; then, the last leg down will start, maybe it will not go past the lows but that will be the real capitulation and where I'll be ready to buy.
TLT + Rate CutsTLT bullish trend into 100 resistance with major Fed decisions coming in the next weeks/months. Has a gap to fill on the way to highest pt
Pts are 98.30, 98.70, and 100+
- Shifted narrative from inflation to labor market
- Data suggests Fed is very behind the curve
- Jackson Hole
- FOMC
Hmm... Something Interesting & Sweet is Brewing in T-Bond MarketIEF is a longer maturity, longer duration play on the US Intermediate Treasury segment. The fund focuses on Treasury notes expiring 7-10 years from now, which have significantly higher yield and interest rate sensitivity than the notes that make up our broader 1-10 year benchmark.
IEF`s average YTM is significantly higher than US-T Aggregated benchmark's. Of course, the higher yield comes with significantly higher sensitivity to changes in rates, particularly those at the longer end of the yield curve (10-year key rate duration).
The fund changed its index from the Barclays US Treasury Bond 7-10 Year Term Index to the ICE US Treasury 7-10 Year Bond Index on March 31, 2016. This change created no significant change in exposure.
IEF's narrow focus and concentrated portfolio have been popular, so the fund is stable and easy to trade.
The main technical graph represents IEF' Total return (div-adjusted) format, and indicates on developing H&S structure, as US Federal Reserve tight monetary policy seems is near to ease.
Inverse Head & Shoulders $TLT ETF Weekly ChartInverse Head & Shoulders NASDAQ:TLT ETF Weekly Chart The NASDAQ:TLT ETF weekly chart, which tracks 20-year+ Treasuries, shows an inverse head & shoulders pattern still intact. 📊 U.S. Treasury funds have attracted billions in inflows over the past couple of weeks, fueled by rising expectations of rate cuts and growing investor confidence in long-term government bonds. 💵 However, there's resistance at the $100 level— NASDAQ:TLT needs to break this level before heading higher. 📈🚀
#USTreasury #Bonds #FixedIncome #Investing #Finance NASDAQ:TLT #RateCuts #MarketTrends #ETF
Gold predicting that Big falling rates cycle has almost overThere are several factors that can drive gold prices up in long term. Some of the key factors include:
1. Global Economic Uncertainty: Gold is often seen as a safe-haven asset during times of economic uncertainty or market volatility. Investors tend to flock to gold as a store of value when traditional investments like stocks and bonds are perceived as risky.
2. Inflation: Gold is often used as a hedge against inflation. When inflation is high and inflation expectations are going even higher, the purchasing power of fiat currencies decreases, leading investors to turn to gold as a way to preserve their wealth.
3. Geopolitical Tensions: Political instability, conflicts, and geopolitical tensions can also drive up gold prices. In times of uncertainty or conflict, investors may seek the safety of gold as a reliable asset.
4. Central Bank Policies: The monetary policies of central banks, such as interest rate decisions and quantitative easing measures, can impact gold prices. While investors thoughts that lower interest rates and expansionary monetary policies tend to be supportive of higher gold prices are widespread, in reality - higher due to inflationary concerns interest rates are more supportive for gold prices.
5. Demand and Supply: Like any commodity, gold prices are influenced by supply and demand dynamics. Factors such as jewelry demand, industrial demand, and gold production levels can all impact the price of gold.
These are just a few of the factors that can drive gold prices up. It's important to note that gold prices can be influenced by a wide range of economic, geopolitical, and market factors.
The main Graph is an Annual chart for ratio between Gold prices in US Dollars (XAUUSD) and US Inflation (USCPI).
In technical terms this graph indicates that 40-years deflationary plateau, and monetary cycle of falling USD rates has almost over, while due to mentioned above reasons, Gold can start its ride to outperform inflation within many upcoming years.
TBT is a buy rate cuts likely are stalled LONGTBT is an inverse 20 year Treasury Bill ETF. At present, the Iran Israeli conflict threatens a
regional conflict to include the Red Sea and the Easter Mediterranean where oil tankers must
navigate to move oil from producer to consumer. Oil price escalation could go hand and hand
with geopolitical escalations. Oil and its derivatives are a primary driver of inflation in the
US. Inflation has been sticky and forcing the fed's ambitions to cut rate to be paused. The
Middle East escalation may make matters worse overall. Federal spending ( aid to Israel for
instance) is also a driver of inflation. The budget fight in DC is front and center. I see this
as good cause, to continue to take adds to my TBT position whenever I can find a dip worth
the discount as a further hedge against a correction in the equities markets which could come
on the horizon. Granted a dip of 2-3% from the ATHs is not much but when it hits 10% or more
and the VIX/UXXY continue to rise, there will be impetus in a hurry to hedge positions or close
them with more urgency. For for TBT, I believe that more is better.
Opened (IRA): TLT Feb 21st 83 Short Put... for a 1.39 credit.
Comments: Targeting the 52 week low on weakness here after taking off a rung in September.
$TLT Weekly Chart Inverse Head Shoulders" NASDAQ:TLT Weekly Chart: Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern was triggered last week. 📈 This could signal a potential reversal and further upside for long-term Treasuries. Are you watching this breakout? #TLT #TechnicalAnalysis #BondMarket #Investing #ChartPatterns"
Time for TLTThe 20-year Treasury Bond ETF 'TLT' is looking good now that the Federal Reserve has stated that an interest rate cut could come as early as September if inflation continues to fall. The fact that Fed chairman Jerome Powell is now using dovish language and naming dates for potential cuts is cause enough to consider shifting some money to bonds. The swift selloff in stocks earlier this week is also good reason to be cautious in equities and bullish bonds, still waiting to see if that was a one-time dip or the start of something more prolonged. We also have rising unemployment, record personal debt and increasing rates of delinquency in auto loans that signal potential recession ahead. At this point it's not a question of 'if' rates cuts and money printing are going to happen, but 'when', especially if we see markets turn back down in a significant way and/or a continued move higher in unemployment.
TLT has recently broke above a short-term resistance line as the 20-year treasury bond yield broke below a short-term support line which shows how inversely correlated they are. If we can expect bond yields to come down via Fed rate cuts then we can expect bond prices to go up. TLT is the most popular bond ETF and I've personally been buying ever since price fell below $100 last year with the intention of building a large position ahead of inevitable rate cuts. I'll stop buying when rate cuts begin and then ride TLT until it looks like a bottom in rates is in, and then sell the entire position and flip long stocks.
Is the Bond market trying to tell us something ? NASDAQ:TLT breaking out on an absolute and relative term to the S&P500.
🔜 20+ Year Treasury Bond Market. Perhaps This Is The End US stocks surprised much of Wall Street this year with a strong run that defied decades-high interest rates and recession calls. The rally was fueled by slower inflation and hype over artificial intelligence.
But more recently, the Federal Reserve's unwavering higher-for-longer rate stance and a deepening bond-market rout have had a sobering effect on equities sentiment, with the S&P 500 index halving its year-to-date gains.
Indeed stock valuations are looking increasingly stretched, raising the risk of a correction.
One such indicator in particular is flashing RED - the relative valuation of stocks versus the debt market.
SPX / ICE BofA Corporate Total Return Index
In August this year, the S&P 500 CBOE:SPX climbed to levels last seen during the peak of dot-com boom, relative to an index that tracks the US corporate bond market.
The gauge is still holding near those highs, despite the recent pullback in equities.
The metric last surged this high in the spring of 2000 — and that was followed by a multi-year meltdown in stocks that saw the S&P 500 crash 50% between March 2000 and October 2002.
SPX 50% Decline During 2000-2002
Another indicator that shows the richness of stocks relative to debt is the so-called equity risk premium — or the extra return on shares over government debt, which is considered a safer form of investment. The metric has plunged this year lows unseen in decades, indicating elevated stock valuations.
"Equity risk premium is near its worst ever level going back to 1927. In the 6 instances this has occurred, the markets saw a major correction & recession/depression - 1929, 1969, 99/00, 07, 18/19, present," research firm MacroEdge said in a recent post on X (ex-Twitter).
The so-called equity risk premium (earnings yield minus bond yield) recently fell to a new cycle low and remains well below historical averages. In other words, the stock market has become more expensive relative to the bond market despite the recent pullback.
Meanwhile the main graph (quarterly Div-adjusted chart for NASDAQ:TLT 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) illustrates perhaps right there could the end for U.S. Govt Bond Market decline, with Double top as a further projected/ targeted upside price action.
Will all of that bring U.S. stock market to 50% decline like in early 2000s!?
Time will show!
Opened (IRA): TLT September 20th 89 Monied Covered Calls... for an 87.83/contract debit.
Comments: Parking some cap in TLT while I go about "summer things." Selling the -75 call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta long put while having built-in short call defense.
Metrics:
Break Even/Buying Power Effect: 87.83/contract
Max Profit: 1.07/contract (ex. divvies); 1.38/contract (with divvies)
ROC at Max: 1.22% (ex. divvies)/1.57% (with divvies)
50% Max: .53/contract (ex. divvies)
ROC at Max: .61% (ex. divvies); .96% (with divvies)
These metrics assume that I'm only able to grab one divvy (i.e., July). It's possible that I'm able to grab July and August or July, August, and September, which will naturally increase the ROC %-age, but will generally money/take/run at 50% max after at least the July divvy drops. And ... you never know ... It's also possible that TLT might not cooperate and move back toward my short call strike and voila, I've got a poo pile on my hands.
$TLT: $92-100 before $85-$75I'm not sure what's going to happen in the immediate term (1-2 weeks), but after that I think we'll see a bond rally from middle of June into July up above $92 and the possibility of going as high as $100. My base case is that we get a move up to $97ish level, but not ruling out the possibility of retesting the highs of the recent move.
However, after July, things don't look great for bonds, I think we'll see a new low in bonds and a new high in rates that will catch many people off guard.
I think we reject somewhere in the $92-100 level and then start our next move down to new lows somewhere in the $85-75 range between August and October.
Let's see how it plays out.
