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TLT

ZN - 10 Yr Note - Continued Move to Higher Yields - ZN TLT ZBTLT is beginning it's terminal phase for the next decline. We Sold to Open TLT this morning, taking our First Position at our Target, with further Sells to 150s Set. Out dated Maturities, we have been suggesting for the past month are due for a large correction in Yields. Day to day noise is just that... Noise. Bond HODLers are convinced they have it figured out. They clearly do not or they would not be supporting an enterprise steeped in criminal activity. 3 Fed Members have now been admitted to Front Running Markets for their own Benefit. CONfidence inspiring.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by HK_L61
1
10 Year Treasury Note - ROC's Building againRates of Change for Yields will face increasing Competition in the coming weeks. We anticipate further to quickly be met with YCC. Yields have been mixed at lows, attempting to Hang their Man. Central Banks receive their orders on High. Governments can no longer borrow to fund their annual spending. Digital "Currency" proposals from the WEF via Lagarde at the IMF, Echoed @ the BIS and then it's stepchild the ECB. The Debt can of worms can no longer be kicked down the road. Europe is in the final stages of collapsing under the Existing System. This will spread Cajun style, like a swamp Gator that eats everything that moves in the DEBT SWAMP. Rumors (Credible) of the Federal Reserve accepting Direct Deposits is halting the Primary Dealer network of Banks (First Abusers) who, via Trading Arms and partners such as BlackRock and VanGuard and many other smaller boutiques such as Gelber - have been able to manipulate ALL Markets without consequence... The Federal Government required them to sell their DEBT. This effort is very clearly coming to a decided end. Globally, the entire Financial System and edifice is being dumped on its Head.
CBOT:ZN1!
by HK_L61
3
QE Tapering Delay Can Support Gold #ElliottwaveFed's Kaplan noted that they are watching Delta variant, and says he may need to adjust view regarding tapering. This is very important for speculators who were recently betting on the USD as this can limit the USD strenght if it proves correct. In such situation traders may turn back to gold where price recovered back to $1800 and even erased all of the losses after the crash from a two weeks back. Rally, in fact, is in five waves which is very bullish for metal. At the same time, we are looking at the TLT as confirmation regarding lower US yeilds/higher notes, while DXY can be trading at resistance of a three wave rally up from January. Take care, Grega
TVC:DXY
by ew-forecast
2
TLT - Longer End 10/20/30 FlatteningSince 2002 when GSCO's Timothy Bitsberger's began his reign as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury. Fiscal Fundings began to move down the curve to under 30 Months and accumulate a large concentration within this timeframe. It placed the burden of Government Finance up on the Short End of the Yield Curve near the region of control for the Federal Reserve and their ability to drive Monetary Policy. During the waning decades to today, the Bond Markets have become 11.2X the size of Equities. Since 2008 we have witnessed a rapid acceleration in Money Stock, one which remains underreported then (as the FED ceased reporting M2) to today where the very life blood of Credit Growth Velocity has dried up and reversed. TARP, TALF and the Yield Swaps accumulated $32 Trillion in Debt. 91% of the American Public was against these Monetary Measure then.... Today they Gag for it as the Global Economy lays in ruin. Independent Producers have been wrecked to the point, recovery is simply not viable. The FED Minutes served to provide several references to moving up the Timeline for Tapering. This provides cover for Powell's (we'll let ya know while we're thinking about thinking) as behind the scenes they are preparing for short duration reduction in the usual suspects - RMBS, CDO, CDO, Corp Debt, Zombie DEBT. Yield Curve Controls became evident as the 1.71 10Yr yield was not permitted to be breached, had it and Swaps would have been grossly offsides and created a large dislocation. At present, The uncertainty over the impact of this Policy change - Potential Policy change - remain in Flux. The Dollar, our target is 9465 ST, remains the wild card as the EU faces retribution for decades of abuse and a failed attempt at Negative Interest Rates - the vote of Confidence ALWAYS flows to the Currency of Seniorege, the US DOLLAR. Capital Flows favor US Markets as China is making it extraordinarily clear, they are closing off the Monetary & Economic Borders well in advance of the UNWIND coming to our shores. A steepening or inverting yield Curve is immaterial. We crossed the Rubicon long, long ago. As we witness the SPX to M2 Stock overthrow the .22 level - there is an important message there, extremely important, which is why we suggested the ES would attempt an over-throw on Friday @ the 4441 level. These actions ahead of Jackson Hole are significant. More to follow within the 5 Part thesis beginning with ES/M2S, TLT, Divergences, Capital Flows and "Resurrections' Trade" HK
NASDAQ:TLT
by HK_L61
2
TLT - 150 Puts now Active - ZN 134s STO / ZB 16490 STOsTLT Gap Fill was the Fill. 150 Put entry completed on GF. November 150s now solidly in profit for this trade, B/E is stop as VX enters and true range appears at 2:45PM EST. This is an aggressive SELL on TLT for us. We believe TLT ends up being Sold Hard. ZN/ZB tend to lead these declines. The Setups in both ZN & ZB are complete. We hold large positions in both: ZN @ 134.00 x 25 ZB @ 164.90 @ 25 Our largest and ONLY Position outside of AMC SELLs. We believe this trade will see 3% at minimum, it will be very quick and very dirty as ROCs expand. Bond Curve >/= 10yr in confirmed SELL.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by HK_L61
2
Currencies - Dollar Rises with QEIdea for Currencies/Macro: - Contrary to popular belief, since 2008, the dollar RISES with Fed Balance Sheet expansion. - There is currently a large divergence which I speculate to close with the dollar rising. Either the Fed Balance Sheet can be reduced, or the dollar will rise... Obviously the balance sheet will not be reduced for a long time, if ever. Why is this so? Doesn't printing more money devalue currency? 1. - Central Bank creates reserves, not a form of liquidity that directly enters the economy. It's still inflationary of course. - G-SIBs and commercial banks can then either rebalance their holdings to purchase assets, or create credit based on this collateral which enters the economy. - These swaps also lower rates, which creates the perception of invincibility and causes price inflation of risk assets (purely speculative!). - However, when debt is serviced (credit impulse turns negative) this destroys liquidity. 2. - A few $trillion from the Fed is just a drop in the eurodollar market, it does not amount to much, relatively speaking. - Other Central Banks have expanding their balance sheets more than the Fed. Since currencies are relative, this is bullish for the dollar. - Eurodollar futures are declining, signaling a SHORTAGE of dollars and liquidity destruction elsewhere, at a greater rate than QE. QE has been ongoing since 2008. Eurodollar market is the market, simply put. Over 90% of international trade is financed through the eurodollar market. I don't think there is any question that a recession is coming when the monetary tightening inevitably comes. Central Banks Balance sheets vs GDP is higher than it was before/during/after the Great Depression or WW2. Total Assets to GDP: IMO yields respond to credit impulse immediately, and their trend supports liquidity destruction in the Eurodollar market. Eurodollar futures are not a currency market but a reflection of LIBOR interest rates. It is an expression of inflation expectations: What is actually happening? - Interest rate driven QE is not working to create economic growth, and we are experiencing global deflation. - QE is failing to create high quality collateral, but instead collateral is being sucked out of the international markets. - Capital flows and credit impulse are negative (deflationary). - Fed went all out, but international money markets did not respond. Real wealth is being destroyed and there is nothing the Central Banks can do about it. Speculation: - Since Credit Cycle leads currencies/collateral, and it is turning down, debtors are withdrawing collateral from risk assets to service their debt. - High quality collateral is being sucked out from underneath the equity bubble (distribution). - Leading institutions will service debt and sell risk before monetary deflation arrives. There will be a dollar shortage and a squeeze. How does this trickle down and affect US equities? It affects the EURUSD pair, which is synonymous with risk appetite (It is an indicator not the cause). EURUSD: Where EURUSD goes, oil and tech go... and where oil and tech go, the stock market goes. Anyway, a relatively safe way to play this would be simply to long USD for the mid-long term (UUP etc.). You can try to short the bubble like me, but be ready for some pain as the timing is tricky and bubbles rise the most at the end. Keep in mind that this isn't really a trade signal but a trend. However, the day of the rugpull is indeed coming. Looking at the trend for DXY, 114-120 seems like a reasonable target. GLHF - DPT
TVC:DXYLong
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
11
Bonds - US10Y Cannot and Will Not Rise SignificantlyIdea for 10Y Treasury Bond Yields: I speculate that yields cannot and will not rise significantly until the equity bubble pops. I think that it will start a wave reaching 0.7 this month. Why is that? - There is almost $300 trillion in private sector debt globally. - Companies used margin debt for share buybacks to boost EPS, creating the illusion of economic growth. - There is a borrowing cost for private debtors, debt must be serviced. - 10Y is used as a risk-free rate benchmark for credit derivatives, especially for risk spreads. - Furthermore, rising yields means that a rate hike would inevitably follow. - The premium on credit risk is at a record low (BBB). - Even junk bonds and Greece is negatively yielding. - Zombie companies are at an ATH (one that isn’t generating enough income to cover the annual interest payments on its debts. With interest rates so low, these zombies have stayed “alive” by refinancing their debts at increasingly lower rates, or simply tacking on more debt to keep breathing. But with rates rising, zombies may be forced to refinance at higher rates.) - Since debt is increasing, the magnitude that rates can rise before negatively impacting the private sector is decreasing. Any significant rise in rates will quickly cause mass insolvencies in these zombie companies, which also would cause a cascade of liquidations in yield chasers who had sold credit default swaps - accumulating asymmetric risk. It is a massive, massive bubble, and any significant rise in rates would collapse the equity market and the economy. The only way to keep equities stable would be for negative rates, but the dollar is without a doubt - rising. As debt rises, liquidity is sucked out of the collateral pool in a proportional amount. You will just eventually get to a point where debt servicing becomes too expensive anyway from a collateral supply perspective. That's the fundamental condition which will eventually bring about the reflexive regression to the mean. So is it a slow and painful death, or a quick flush? I'd bet on the latter... more money to be made for insiders who short it. In fact, I would wager that the Bill Ackmans of the world are betting big on credit default swaps on zombie companies, similar to CDSs/CDOs on subprime mortgages in 2008. People are buying with both hands bonds which are expected to yield less than what they paid for at the maturity. Any change in conditions would cause this to be capitulation into a bid-less market, don't you think? It's pure insanity and there is only one thing to do here. GLHF - DPT
TVC:US10YShort
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
4
#DJI: DJIA leading the charge?We have an interesting situation, at least for the following 6 weeks...After the jobs report, the market is repricing the timing of tapering and eventual rate hikes it would seem. Financials had underperformed for some time, and $QQQ and $SPY moved higher thanks to growth names regaining strength, while bond yields were falling and a big unwind of losing yield curve steepener bets were unwinding. I had pointed out the strength in growth and bonds before, and rotated away from value and financials/energy when I figured out the reflation move had ran its course. At least financials are prone to do very well for the next few weeks, as the weekly uptrend in $TLT expired, and predicts a 6 week sideways or down move in bonds, which is connected to mean reversion following a furious move caused partially by the unwinding of big yield curve bets. News of the hedge fund that took the hit were recently published, which made me think the move in the yield curve is overdone and bound to mean revert. This will favor US banks for some time again. We also observe this behavior in the $DJI chart here, and the $SPY and $QQQ weekly charts. Both $SPY and $QQQ have weekly trends that expire in the next 2 weeks, which can lead to a sideways or downside move after the last short term upswing takes a breather. I'm still bullish longer term overall, in names like $AAPL, $TSLA and $NVDA to name a few, but they might correct or consolidate in two weeks, while US Banks soar. The trend will likely go back to lower bond yields and outperformance of growth later on, but for now it is the time of the $DJI to shine over $SPY and $QQQ, specially in 2 weeks from now. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:DJILong
by IvanLabrie
2