TLT
TLT Best buy for at least one yearThis chart shows a very clear and strong trend on TLT on a multi-year basis. Every time the price hits the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (1W time-frame), it finds a long-term Support and rises. This is accompanied by a MACD Bullish Cross. See who the Channel's Fibs are also playing their role as Supports. Can this be the new long-term Support in TLT's attempt to break above the 1.5 extension?
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I MISSED THE LAST LEG, SO WHAT NOW...Cash on Standby!Intraday uptrend is very strong but we are currently sitting in a neutral position to possibly have a pullback here. Also took a position in 20 YR bonds as it looks like we may have hit a bottom and more investors could be locking in to a more safe asset and minimizing their "Risk On" positions.
TLT long explanation on my last videohere is more explanation of my last video that why we have 3 targets based on elliot waves. there are 3 elliot waves from small to big picture that gives us some classics theoretical targets.
does it mean we will reach all of them?
does we even pass them?
or we reject from here again?
all possible!!! if you are a trader more than even 1yr you know that ALL POSSIBLE! just trade based on your strategy, open point, risk/reward ratio, SL and TP.
Weekly $TLT Most Oversold.... EVER!We are watching a capitulation of long dated bonds in real time. Today's huge gap down of -2% breaking last week's lows is actually perfectly in line with TLT seasonality for the past 16 years. This is no coincidence as the March 2009 - March 2010 sequence in bonds is very similar to the March 2020 - March 2021 sequence. The Q1 FOMC in the 3rd week is usually a catalyst to reverse the sentiment in bonds. This extra gap down near the statistical low for the *Entire Year* is a true gift. When bonds recover, expect a huge buy cycle back into beaten down tech/growth stocks.
A big clue today was Gold. It tracked 30Y bonds (ZB Futures) overnight down, but reversed hard with the Euro off supports. Normally, if TLT was down -2% at the USA open gold would be crushed, but it did the exact opposite. Something is off with long dated bonds and I feel this will be quickly resolved with the FOMC catalyst next week.
Join in this great trade!
TLT Seasonality for the previous 16 years - There are no coincidences!
Rolling (IRA): TLT May 21st 148 to June 21st 145 Covered Calls... for a .92/contract credit.
Notes: A continuation of my TLT covered calls. (See Post Below). With the May 21st 148's at greater than 50% max, rolled out to the June 145's. Total credits collected of 6.42/contract with the June 21st 145's currently valued at around 1.60/contract, so I've realized gains of around 4.82/contract on the call side so far this year. With a cost basis of sub-110 (the last time I acquired), I remain fine with either being called away or continuing to work covered calls.
My natural preference would be for the underlying to settle so that I wasn't constantly chasing calls down the ladder, but you can't have everything.
The sharp rise in yields may not end the the tech rallyYes after the pump in yields in the last days, the NASDAQ:QQQ
to NASDAQ:TLT spread did a nice correction.
This correction however, by no means ends the bullish move, nor does it even introduce a bear market.
Actually the chart now looks even more bullish and I might have sold a lot of positions too early on Friday.... :/
Lets See How Right Or How WrongLets see am I real right or real wrong? It's real nice to have ETH pump my head with the idea that I just know where it's headed but really which way is up and which way is down?
I am still leaning to "down" but often my bag proves me wrong temporarily lol I am still iffy with the crazy a brewin? Reality is that many are just highly attracted to crazy soo.. There's that balled up into a unbridled Yearning for Earning in the DeFi & NFT space that is staying fed by that greed and booby traps galore. So time is the thing at play here.
Being that I am not old father time himself we have to make a reasonable call and live by the moto "Time Is The Greatest Equalizer".
Honestly I really do get nervous buying at these levels if were to really want to hold any crypto at these prices I'd be looking for the more unconventional route to accumulating other than just buying scalp prices.. Humm seems like a trend that can't die...
What are your thoughts? Is it bad that people like to realize gains say "Cool! More Dollars now!"
-No advice to give just thoughts that I can't shake after the last 6 years in the world of "CRYPTO"
""KEEP CALM AND MANAGE THY RISK!""
USG bond ETF $TLT options, inspired by CryptoHayesHello. This is my overnight setup for the weekend. I wanted to hold short or open long equities rather than bonds but it's not feasible at the moment.
Unfortunately this is posted after market close, but will serve as a journal for how poorly/fantastically I play it.
A funky strangle, with a 1:1:1 ratio:
Mar 19 +140C @ 0.65
Mar 19 +135P @ 1.45
Apr 16 +100P @ 0.07
Profit zone:
~$133 > x < ~$141
What I am planning:
For TLT to rise rapidly and CryptoHayes to be wrong, letting me roll/close in profit, covering the initial costs of all 3 positions along with profit. This is why i decided to buy the calls closer to the money. If I am wrong on Monday's directional close, I will likely close all 3 positions and take the loss. The expiries are not good.
Mistakes I can point out immediately:
I've chosen options too close to expiry
I expect movement and have not hedged for no mvement
I may have opened too early just to have a position open
Personal consumption is on the rise, and that may lead to inflation
Reason for the Mar 19 140C call: I am very bullish on bonds due to recent news. Stimulus, taxes confirmed not to be reduced. You've got to be mental to think the USG would want to raise rates. Though consumer spending is almost back to previous highs...
Reason for Mar 19 135P: Maybe it'll go down now. Reflation due to easing of Covid lockdowns.
Reason for Apr 16 100P: I'm certain this is not how you do it, but it's my "tail risk", cheap hedge in case yield hell breaks loose.
Better picture because the preview is missing some items:
% Compare of TLT and 30 year yield
Personal Consumption
What's CryptoHayes would have instead recommended: go ape mode on bitcoin, ape mode hedge on bond yields.
COLLAPSE in long bond YIELD and MAJOR liquidation in stocks!!!The charts are clearly telling you we are heading for major deflationary event despite what the media keeps pumping and yelling inflation is coming. They don't want you to hold cash when the biggest opportunity comes. They want you to stay broke through the opportunity. DXY and bonds are going to do very well. So I will be converting them back to stocks when stocks go into undervalue territory.