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TLT

TLT D1: THE BEST investment into US Election Day (SL/TP(NEW)Why get subbed to me on Tradingview? -TOP author on TradingView -15+ years experience in markets -Professional chart break downs -Supply/Demand Zones -TD9 counts / combo review -Key S/R levels -No junk on my charts -Frequent updates -Covering FX/crypto/US stocks -24/7 uptime so constant updates TLT D1: THE BEST investment into US Election Day (SL/TP(NEW) IMPORTANT NOTE: speculative setup. do your own due dill. use STOP LOSS. don't overleverage. Tagged as SHORT because short-term I expect more losses before reversal (BULLS) at 150/155. 🔸 Summary and potential trade setup ::: TLT D1 market overview/outlook ::: revised/updated outlook ::: accumulation in progress right now ::: expecting more short term losses ::: going into US Election Day ::: HOWEVER buying LOW is THE BEST ::: INVESTMENT into US Election Day ::: 150/155 best reload zone BULLS ::: BULLS should get ready to BUY LOW ::: from range lows / premium level ::: we are setting up for 15%+ PUMP ::: it's a slow process into US election ::: currently stay out / wait for better price ::: then get ready to SHIFT to BULL MODE ::: SWING trade setup do not expect ::: BUY/HOLD setup for patient traders ::: fast/miracle overnights gains here ::: good luck traders 🔸 Supply/Demand Zones ::: N/A ::: N/A 🔸 Other noteworthy technicals/fundies ::: TD9/Combo update: N/A ::: Sentiment short-term: BEARS/downside ::: Sentiment outlook mid-term: BULLS/15% GAINS
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by ProjectSyndicate
2
Regional Banks On the Move!Regional banks have been an absolute dog as of late. They lag almost everything, other than energy. This sector has shown some strength since the “Tech Wreck”. So why do we focus on this group? Well it is part of a larger story…. interest rates. Let’s hop on the chart. So here we have the charts of KRE. We have seen a downward sloping trendline that was intact for months break. Now we are going to test an area of overhead supply. If we break through at that area, that is bullish for stocks. If we break down at that level, we would be looking for a higher low to confirm the trend reversal. We are also seeing the RSI break through some overhead resistance which is bullish. We want to see participation from financials, even the small ones! Now this is also part of a larger story of interest rates. If KRE is rising, we can assume rates will rise as well. At least in the short term during reversals, these two trend together. We are seeing utilities break out too, which is another leading indicator of rates increasing. Happy Trading!
AMEX:KRELong
by derzzycharts
1
Small Cap Outperformance is HealthyWhen looking at equities, there are always clues in the intermarket world. Today we will look at small caps breaking out. Let’s hop into the chart! The first thing I notice here is the overhead supply that we have been struggling to break through. It now looks as though we have broken through. Now we just have to see if it is a fake out or a breakout. If we can turn this resistance into support over the next weeks, this will likely push the IWM to macro highs. The same goes on the RSI. If we can break this level of 60, we can see higher prices. If we are seeing small caps break out, that is a healthy sign of bull market rotation. Bull markets are hard to spot at the start, but this is something that we look for. By the way, small caps breaking out is good for equities and crypto, bad for bonds and the dollar. At least in the medium term of 6-12 months. Happy Trading!
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AMEX:IWMLong
by derzzycharts
OPENING (IRA): TLT NOVEMBER 20TH 160/170/172 JADE LIZARD... for a 2.64/contract credit. Notes: A bet that TLT doesn't move much with no upside risk (the credit received exceeds the max risk of the two-wide short call vertical) and a downside break even of 157.36 (the short put strike minus the credit received). Additionally, even if it blows through the long call strike at 172, the credit received exceeds the max risk of the call side by .64, so I could still make money if that happens. Will look to take profit at 50% max.
NASDAQ:TLT
by NaughtyPines
2
TRADE IDEA: TLT SHORT CALL DIAGONALWith (a) the Federal Reserve telegraphing "lower for longer," but (b) not much lower, given the practical limitations of cutting rates from here; (c) overhead resistance at ~172.50; and (d) the fact that the Fed interest rates will hike rates (modestly or otherwise) "at some point" going forward, I'm looking to short the 20 year + maturity treasury exchange-traded-fund TLT, preferably on strength back toward the 172.50 level. While I can naturally take a short position via covered put, short via short call vertical, long put vertical, or long put diagonal,* my preference is for a setup that will give me some flexibility to roll short options out for additional time and credit if my timing is off and/or I want to re-up with a short option out in time after a given leg is pulled off at or near worthless. Consequently, I'm opting for a short call diagonal here with a slight twist: laddering out the short calls and buying fairly cheap longs equal to the number of contracts in my ladder. Here, the back month longs are going for .30 a pop, so I'm giving up some credit to define risk and/or make it "street legal" in a cash secured environment, where most brokers won't allow you to sell naked shorts, and for cheaper than I could potentially do a covered put. That being said, this setup isn't "cheap": buying power effect: 96.10; max profit on fill: 2.97, which is 3.09% ROC, assuming everything expires worthless, and I don't re-up any short legs. Naturally, the ROC%-age will be better if everything expires worthless, and I can re-up with the short call a couple of additional times. The November short call's paying 1.06; the December, 1.34; and the January, 1.47, so it's conceivable I could milk another 2.00 in credit out of the thing for around 5.00 total over the life of the setup, assuming I don't have to roll broken calls out in time. Alternatives: (a) Buy the January 21st '22 160P (b) Sell the January 21st '22 160C ... for a 3.25 credit at the mid price. This creates a static -100 delta short position. (c) Sell the November 20th 159P ... for a 2.06 credit. Manage like a covered put, but without being in the stock. This setup should be way cheaper to get into, at least on margin; it's likely a prohibited setup in a cash secured environment for most brokers. * -- The long put diagonal is generally my go-to when I want to take a short position, but want time for it to work out or to reduce cost basis over time. Unfortunately, long-dated back month high delta long puts were unsatisfactorily illiquid to do this, although maybe I'll have better luck pricing things out during live market hours.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by NaughtyPines
5
UPDATE (IRA): TLT NOVEMBER 20TH 165 COVERED CALLSLast update/refresh of existing positions before I move on to new trades ... . Here, an "about as simple as it gets" covered call setup in my IRA in 20 year maturity + treasuries with a current yield of 1.64% and paid .19014/share in June (around $19 per one lot) versus a 30-days 'til expiry, one standard deviation short call premium of .78 (currently the September 25th 172 short call), just to give you some idea of what aspect of the setup is paying. My last acquisition was around $110/share, and I'm inclined to take my money and run at historic interest rate lows, since I think that these have a practical upper bound and will necessarily decline in price when the Federal Reserve gets around to unwinding some of its pandemic-related easing (which is a "who knows when" sort of thing). Previously, to accommodate some of the downside risk, I overwrote calls using call diagonals (See Post Below) and may do so again here while I ponder whether the buying power tied up in this position is "worth it" for the dividends and/or the short call premium. As a function of stock price, the .19 dividend plus the .78 30-day risk premium for one standard deviation calls is .59% of the underlying price (7.02% annualized) versus the 30-days 'til expiry one standard deviation short put currently paying .60 (.36% of the stock price, 4.34% annualized), so there is some advantage to staying in covered call versus selling out-of-the-money puts from a bang for your buck perspective, particularly since this is a cash secured environment. That being said, overwriting can be somewhat buying power intensive and can lead to some headaches managing the additional calls if price rapidly gets away from you to the upside.
NASDAQ:TLT
by NaughtyPines
Shiller Version 2 for Wk Open 9/14 In 1998, Robert Shiller--the Yale economist and Nobel Prize winner-- formalized that idea in a paper, "Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook" and a book, "Irrational Exuberance." The latter made Shiller something of an economic prophet. In his book, which came out shortly before the dotcom crash, he warned that stocks were overvalued. What is the CAPE ratio? It describes the price-earnings ratio over 10 years, rather than on a particular date. Called the Shiller P/E, it is calculated by dividing the price of a stock by its average earnings over the past 10 years, adjusted for inflation . It can also be used on an index such as the S&P 500 .
M
by TayFx
I wonder WHAT is coming next? 1) RSI elevated 2) Volume diminishing 3) Bonds picking up momentum 4) SPY close to all time high On the fundamentals: 1) Unemployment at record high 2) Stimulus ending with no replacement in sight ... The question is not WHAT but WHEN? I vote for soon, VERY soon! Disclaimer: The above is not an investment advice. It is merely an opinion and I share it for your entertainment only. Do your own due diligence and above all, trade safely and stay safe!
AMEX:SPYShort
by adventurous51
Copper/Gold RatioWe might start to see longer term US bond weakness as the copper/gold ratio rebounds off the lower extreme of it's descending channel. In this example I'm using TLT, an ETF. These two have an inverse relationship and also correlate with the US dollar. Long term US bonds and the USD tend to have a positive correlation giving both a bearish outlook. This is more for analysis than trading and can provide another piece to the USD bear picture. Over the coming months or year we may see USD continue it's bearish trajectory, keeping it weak against it's major counterparts. My relative analysis says USD is currently weak and stronger currencies to pair against are AUD, CAD and NZD.
FX:COPPERLong
by Aperna
6
Bond Market Warned of Corrections 9/6/2020TLT at the daily view. This is a project that my trading team and I are conducting. This is 8 of 9 charts (available on Trading View) that searches for clues for an imminent correction by using both June and September 2020 cases. It's a comprehensive overview that connects the charts volatility , trends, divergences, credit, and currency strength. The bond markets warned of a correction in the stock market a few days before June and September's correction. Bonds ripped to the upside a few days prior to the ES, NQ, and RTY correcting. The previous top and fall back in August 7th was due to the inflation scare by the PPE report.
NASDAQ:TLT
by Itsallsotiresome