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UPDATE (IRA): TLT NOVEMBER 20TH 165 COVERED CALLSLast update/refresh of existing positions before I move on to new trades ... . Here, an "about as simple as it gets" covered call setup in my IRA in 20 year maturity + treasuries with a current yield of 1.64% and paid .19014/share in June (around $19 per one lot) versus a 30-days 'til expiry, one standard deviation short call premium of .78 (currently the September 25th 172 short call), just to give you some idea of what aspect of the setup is paying. My last acquisition was around $110/share, and I'm inclined to take my money and run at historic interest rate lows, since I think that these have a practical upper bound and will necessarily decline in price when the Federal Reserve gets around to unwinding some of its pandemic-related easing (which is a "who knows when" sort of thing). Previously, to accommodate some of the downside risk, I overwrote calls using call diagonals (See Post Below) and may do so again here while I ponder whether the buying power tied up in this position is "worth it" for the dividends and/or the short call premium. As a function of stock price, the .19 dividend plus the .78 30-day risk premium for one standard deviation calls is .59% of the underlying price (7.02% annualized) versus the 30-days 'til expiry one standard deviation short put currently paying .60 (.36% of the stock price, 4.34% annualized), so there is some advantage to staying in covered call versus selling out-of-the-money puts from a bang for your buck perspective, particularly since this is a cash secured environment. That being said, overwriting can be somewhat buying power intensive and can lead to some headaches managing the additional calls if price rapidly gets away from you to the upside.
NASDAQ:TLT
by NaughtyPines
Shiller Version 2 for Wk Open 9/14 In 1998, Robert Shiller--the Yale economist and Nobel Prize winner-- formalized that idea in a paper, "Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook" and a book, "Irrational Exuberance." The latter made Shiller something of an economic prophet. In his book, which came out shortly before the dotcom crash, he warned that stocks were overvalued. What is the CAPE ratio? It describes the price-earnings ratio over 10 years, rather than on a particular date. Called the Shiller P/E, it is calculated by dividing the price of a stock by its average earnings over the past 10 years, adjusted for inflation . It can also be used on an index such as the S&P 500 .
MULTPL:SHILLER_PE_RATIO_MONTH
by TayFx
I wonder WHAT is coming next? 1) RSI elevated 2) Volume diminishing 3) Bonds picking up momentum 4) SPY close to all time high On the fundamentals: 1) Unemployment at record high 2) Stimulus ending with no replacement in sight ... The question is not WHAT but WHEN? I vote for soon, VERY soon! Disclaimer: The above is not an investment advice. It is merely an opinion and I share it for your entertainment only. Do your own due diligence and above all, trade safely and stay safe!
AMEX:SPYShort
by adventurous51
Copper/Gold RatioWe might start to see longer term US bond weakness as the copper/gold ratio rebounds off the lower extreme of it's descending channel. In this example I'm using TLT, an ETF. These two have an inverse relationship and also correlate with the US dollar. Long term US bonds and the USD tend to have a positive correlation giving both a bearish outlook. This is more for analysis than trading and can provide another piece to the USD bear picture. Over the coming months or year we may see USD continue it's bearish trajectory, keeping it weak against it's major counterparts. My relative analysis says USD is currently weak and stronger currencies to pair against are AUD, CAD and NZD.
FX:COPPERLong
by Aperna
6
Bond Market Warned of Corrections 9/6/2020TLT at the daily view. This is a project that my trading team and I are conducting. This is 8 of 9 charts (available on Trading View) that searches for clues for an imminent correction by using both June and September 2020 cases. It's a comprehensive overview that connects the charts volatility , trends, divergences, credit, and currency strength. The bond markets warned of a correction in the stock market a few days before June and September's correction. Bonds ripped to the upside a few days prior to the ES, NQ, and RTY correcting. The previous top and fall back in August 7th was due to the inflation scare by the PPE report.
NASDAQ:TLT
by Itsallsotiresome
Inverted Head and Shoulder? Load up on USDThe dollar has been hit very hard lately with all this money printing from the Fed but some argument support the theory that it will soar one last time before the true descent. The stock market (SPY) is climbing its wall of worries. It will break new highs if not done already by the time you read this. But then when it corrects, bonds are going to soar and cash will be king for a short while. First Target $27 but could soar well above that. I am loading on UUP September 18th calls. They are are cheap and it offers sufficient time for the plan to work itself out! Disclaimer: The above is not an investment advice. It is merely an opinion and I share it for your entertainment only. Do your own due diligence and above all, trade safely and stay safe!
AMEX:UUPLong
by adventurous51
All Time HIGH! Things you can do instead of shorting SPYThis craze could go on for a little while. who knows when the reality will catch up with the stock market, In the meantime, you can position yourself for a couple of potential explosive moves. - Long bonds, they are declining today, could be a good entry price soon? No need for an idea here, just look at the March TLT chart. - Long USD (see related story) - Long Gold before the big drop (see related story, to be followed by bullish trend. This one has worked out faster than I thought! I am up 33% on a position I took today) Disclaimer: The above is not an investment advice. It is merely an opinion and I share it for your entertainment only. Do your own due diligence and above all, trade safely and stay safe!
AMEX:SPY
by adventurous51
"All Time High's"This was the first chart that signaled a recession in April of 2020 when the curve first inverted last year in May. This was pure luck, by simply drawing a fractal of previous yield curve inversions from past recessions from May, which was around 360 days from the TA that suggested the market would recess in April of 2020. Obviously covid is a black-swan--unpredictable and un-speculative--however the bond markets continue to get this all correct, 6-12 months in advance. Keep your tabs on the curve.
TVC:US10Y
by TayFx
2
4 VS 1 / DJI, SPX, IXIC y RUT Versus TLT (BONDS 20 YRS) Cuando las acciones suben, los bonos deberían bajar. Es simple porque los bonos son como una inversión poco rentable pero segura en tiempos difíciles. Pero cuando comparamos 4 índices con un ETF para bonos a largo plazo, me viene a la mente que en el futuro, la mayoría de los inversores están apostando al mercado a colapsar, (no ahora). Podemos ver la línea de convergencia (por ahora) entre ETF "TLT" (BONOS 20 AÑOS) y 4 índices importantes de USA. Obviamente, si vemos la imagen macro de "US 10 Y", descartamos cualquier riesgo en el corto plazo. ---------------------------------- As we know about opposite, when stocks go higher, Bonds should Go Down. It is simple because Bonds are like a low profitable but safe investment in hard times. But when we compare 4 indexes against an ETF for Long period bonds, it comes to my mind that in a future mostly investors are betting market to crash, (not now). We can see the convergence line (for now) between ETF "TLT" (20 YEARS BONDS) and 4 important indexes of USA. Obviously, if we see the macro Picture of "US 10 Y" we are very solid at this time and we discard any risk.
TVC:IXIC
by danchallout
1