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TLT

THE WEEK AHEAD: EWZ, EWW, CPB, BOXThis week: three candidates for directionals and one nondirectional premium selling play ... . CPB: Although timing could have been better to catch the absolute bottom in this, implied volatility rank and background implied volatility remain quite high in this underlying (61/35). Given price weakness coupled with high implied volatility rank, I would think that a bullish assumption directional would be the way to go, with the most straightforward strategy being via short put. Pictured here is a "Wheel of Fortune," at-the-money short put that's paying 1.85 at the mid with a break even of 36.15. The basic strategy is to take the short put all the way to expiry and, if assigned, proceed to cover at or above your cost basis and work it as you would any covered call. Naturally, if price finishes above 38, you walk away with the entire premium. Variations: 30 delta short put: Aug 17th 36, 1.05 credit at the mid, 34.95 break even. EWZ: The Brazil exchange-traded fund has absolutely been crushed, with price within 5% of its 52-week low. With a rank of 50 and background at 35, here's another play where you've got weakness coupled with volatility, so a bullish assumption play makes the most sense. The Aug 17th 32 "Wheel of Fortune" pays 1.65 with a break even of 30.35; the Aug 17th 30 delta short at the 30 strike, .87 with a break even of 29.13. EWW: If you're already in Brazil, EWW (rank 65/implied 27) is also at the bottom of a fairly long term range between 43 and 56. Wheel of Fortune: Aug 17th 46 short put: 1.75 at the mid, 44.25 break even; 30-delta: Aug 17th 44, .98 credit, break even at 43.02. BOX: With earnings 25 days in the rear view mirror and high rank and implied (76/53), I'd probably opt for a Plain Jane nondirectional: the Aug 17th 24/32 is paying 1.78 with a 69% probability of profit, break evens at 22.22/33.78 (wide of the expected on both sides), delta of .72, and theta of 3.34. Defined risk variation: Aug 17th 22/25/31/34 iron condor is paying 1.26 (I had to bring in both sides a smidge because the highest strike in Aug expiry is currently at 34 ... ). OTHER ACTIVE ALERTS: TLT, short on retrace at 122 (downward skip month put diagonal; horizontal resistance) or TBT, long on retrace at 36 (upward skip month call diagonal; horizontal support). XOP, short on retrace at 44.50 (downward skip month put diagonal; top of range).
C
by NaughtyPines
OPENING: TLT AUG/SEPT 119/126 DOWNWARD PUT DIAGONAL... for a 4.83/contract debit. Fading the treasuries move higher ... again. Here are the metrics: Max Loss On Setup: $483 Max Profit On Setup: $217 Break Even on Setup: 121.17 Debit Paid/Spread Width Ratio: 69% Theta: .32 Delta: -42.26 Notes: Will look to take profit at 20% max. Ordinarily, I like to do these skip month (e.g., Aug/Oct) to give me an additional roll opportunities, but wanted to keep things small (going out farther in time requires a wider spread to achieve a break even at or above spot). The Aug/Oct setup would be the 119/129 for a 7.72/contract debit, max profit on setup of 2.28, debit paid/spread width ratio 77% ... .
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by NaughtyPines
3
TLT Bullish bat pattern combination with a daily hammerIt's a new try to apply harmonic patterns to treasure bond ETF. While recently people are discussing the yields, which is wildly convinced that it led to the Gold's slump yesterday. With this harmonic patterns combination in TLT, and it gave a daily hammer yesterday, it's quite a nice long trade with patterns and reversal sign combination. It worth noticing, not necessarily worth trading, but short-term speaking, if this is where part of the the bearish emotions for non-USD currencies come from, take some profit for the short is not a bad idea yo! Let's see how it goes!
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by Trader_Joe_Lee
TLT: Mother of all short squeezeEvery hedge funds and their wife, dog, cats, kids are short bonds. Everyone is trapped in the narrative of the FED's rate hike. The bus of short 10 year treasury is full. Its time for a train derail. In a risk-off environment, do you think the FED will ever hike rates further? Adding another level of uncertainly is the cancellation of the Trump-Kim summit in Singapore. Including the recent crash of Italian bonds, EU drama yet again (potentially 5x bigger than Greece) The only place funds can reposition themselves are the US dollar, and US debt/treasury. Uncle Sam. The VIX is currently near lows once again. ~13 It is time to counter-trade that, and reap the rewards of the short covering along 117 support line. You have only 2% to risk. Just buy August 2018 - June 2019 call/ bull spread and close your chart. No stop loss. If it doesnt get there, you lose your investments. If it does, you get back 5x~20x your investments. All conditions are perfect.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by LastBattle
8
Charts That Make You Go Hmmm... (SPY/TNX)Thank you to all my followers that take the time to read this with me. Some historical background on the importance of the 10 year Treasury Note Yield Index. (Hey, we all need to brush up on it from time to time) This is a ratio chart of SPY/TNX with a 9 year trend. As is the case with most charts related to interest rates, it's pretty technically perfect. I've always found this interesting because this is a market that is almost 100% Fundamentally driven, yet produces the cleanest technicals, but I digress. I just stumbled across this ratio chart, as interest rates are increasingly on my radar. I think the chart is self-explanatory for the technicians out there. Lastly, let's play 'Guess-That-Pattern' on the weekly 9-Year chart. Good luck to all.
SP:SPX
by RHTrading
1