TLT Extreme Daily Analysis 5/4/18I have really worked the TLT Daily chart and would like to share with you my thoughts exactly. Enjoy!
TLT
OPENING: TLT SEPT 21ST 113 LONG/JUNE 15TH 117 SHORT PUT DIAGONAL... for a .07/contract credit.
Taking a directional shot here at long-term horizontal support, with some flexibility to roll the short put aspect down in the event I'm wrong.
Notes: Will roll the short put aspect "as is" on 50% decrease in value and look to exit for 20% the width of the spread in profit.
Bonds Going DownLong term downtrend about to resume. On the TLT play, I see under 108 by Jan 2019 option expiration.
TLT - Bear BatB = 50% Retrace of XA Leg
C = Still forming but should start to slow down and head upward to D
D = Green boxes are profit targets 1 and 2, then yellow is potential reversal zone
Long entry until "CD" leg completes.
Treasury bond futures/TLT: Interesting place to buyThis might be worth a shot as a hedge for equity holdings here.
Risk 3 ATR down from here.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
TLT Short Term Outlook Hourly This is a great analysis and an over all great opportunity to ride the wave up.
SPX got rejected S&P 500 getting rejected for retest at the weekly neckline. VIX is also forming a double bottom. TLT and treasuries in general got smashed today. Risk on!
ZB - Bonds on the waySo Forkers - here's your Bond Trade I've mentioned in the free ForkTrading Group Weekly Outlook.
Next Station, WL4.
P!
Riding the TrendWhile the SP trendline is going down, TLT trendline is going up. A weak stab at making a 3-day test of the low, holding the rising trendline, bonds will continue to surprise and continue higher.
spring bond rally targetThe extent of the bond rally last summer lines up nicely with the .618 fib retracement shown here and gives us a target heading into the end of May. Almost like someone planned it that way. Possibly wait for a pull-back to the blue-line if going long.
TLT topping (US long bonds heading down / yields up)3-year large head & shoulders top forming, with a minor H&S comprising the right shoulder (completed).
The large pattern almost completed in February, but didn't.
Has since reversed up to prior resistance.
Entry now with a small position using a stop over last week's high.
Or wait for the pattern to complete.
Market sets up for a fall!Reiterating a bearish view on HSI. Looking at candles and wanted to point out a few bearish instances I have noticed. With markets more globalized and intertwined than ever, I see no way SPX DJI NDX IXIC hold up if Asia tanks... which is why I'm short SPY DE TSLA IWM and long UVXY (all with options, of course).
US Treasury is not under a lot of pressureThe reason rate drop provide a low risk short entry of LT treasury after a retest at the neckline resistance.
TLT Price Target HitBonds surged today as economic news pushed interest rates down. Despite looming Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, bonds defied expectations and continued rising. It was no mystery however as prices recently fell below the head and shoulders neckline above 122. As price broke through 122 today, touching the neckline, many technicians view this as a sell point. While stochastics are rising, it's a good time to join the concensus and consider positioning for a down move. Underneath the test of the lows here is another neckline for a massive head and shoulders, which if confirmed, could culminate in TLT falling to below 100.
SPY/TLT weekly - weakeningMACD is negative, RSI is below 50. Price is still above trend line. A price breakdown here may signals trouble ahead.
TLT Setting Up For Higher Prices?Some are surprised that the "flight to safety" from the recent equity market slide has not occurred. Market instruments often follow their own beat. Soon though TLT may be exhibiting a surge, possibly seemingly caused by further stock market weakness. The waves however indicate that a powerful third wave of a larger third wave may be ready to propel TLT prices higher. While many are focused on the huge Head and Shoulders formation that, if broken, can move prices down to under 100, the long term channel line remains as solid support and the wave structure appears impulsive, implying higher prices for now.
TRADE IDEA OF THE WEEK IN TLT!This might now be an exciting play, but we really like the play with the struggles that the bond market is showing. We have bought some puts on this Treasury Bond ETF TLT. We entered around $118.58 and this is what we're seeing:
-Bond market is struggling overall as of late
-Weekly Squeeze has fired to the downside, which can cause large moves
-Volume has really increased over the last 4-5 trading days
-Overall weakness in the price movement
We are hoping to hold this anywhere from 2 days - a month depending on price action but we average a holding period of around 8 days on these swing trades. We will let the price action determine our exit point.
Best of luck to all!
TLT bottomed for almost a monthFinally formed a base and broke trend line. With major equity markets painting a engulfing bar, fly to safety will push rate down.
Major top?TLT treasury bonds are at a huge support, potentially forming a massive top... A break below the neckline would possibly have huge bearish implications.
TLT - A Round Bottom make it a short term longLooks like TLT is forming a round bottom pattern.
I will be buying a couple calls with a march 16 expiration.
Target 121.
Have a nice trade!
TLT breaks neckline on Head and Shoulders patternWhile a regular bar chart shows TLT holding firm at the neckline on a monthly chart, a simple line chart shows that TLT in fact has broken below the head and shoulders neck line. A rally to the neckline and subsequent failure indicates that price can fall below 100 over the long term
