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TLT

TLT Price Target HitBonds surged today as economic news pushed interest rates down. Despite looming Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, bonds defied expectations and continued rising. It was no mystery however as prices recently fell below the head and shoulders neckline above 122. As price broke through 122 today, touching the neckline, many technicians view this as a sell point. While stochastics are rising, it's a good time to join the concensus and consider positioning for a down move. Underneath the test of the lows here is another neckline for a massive head and shoulders, which if confirmed, could culminate in TLT falling to below 100.
NASDAQ:TLT
by Glewis54
TLT Setting Up For Higher Prices?Some are surprised that the "flight to safety" from the recent equity market slide has not occurred. Market instruments often follow their own beat. Soon though TLT may be exhibiting a surge, possibly seemingly caused by further stock market weakness. The waves however indicate that a powerful third wave of a larger third wave may be ready to propel TLT prices higher. While many are focused on the huge Head and Shoulders formation that, if broken, can move prices down to under 100, the long term channel line remains as solid support and the wave structure appears impulsive, implying higher prices for now.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by Glewis54
TRADE IDEA OF THE WEEK IN TLT!This might now be an exciting play, but we really like the play with the struggles that the bond market is showing. We have bought some puts on this Treasury Bond ETF TLT. We entered around $118.58 and this is what we're seeing: -Bond market is struggling overall as of late -Weekly Squeeze has fired to the downside, which can cause large moves -Volume has really increased over the last 4-5 trading days -Overall weakness in the price movement We are hoping to hold this anywhere from 2 days - a month depending on price action but we average a holding period of around 8 days on these swing trades. We will let the price action determine our exit point. Best of luck to all!
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by StrengthTrading
1
Short TLT - Attractive OpportunityWith US rates rising significantly in the past couple of months - how should a trader play this Being structurally short $TLT offers significant upside with a Put Butterfly Spread We have outlined trade which can be accessed on profile however a summary is provided 2 Month Put Skew is 3.62 standard Deviations above its 1 year mean 2 Month Volatility is 1.58 standard deviations above its 1 year mean TLT (Long US Treasury Bonds) is very vulnerable due to above trend growth, increasing budget deficits, the potential for a return of inflation and Fed Tapering Interested in all thoughts & analysis on our idea.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by Quantamize
SHORTING US GOVT BONDSLet me warn you now, this is not a fundamental or technical analysis based trade. This is a speculation on my behalf based on a simple theory. As the US Federal Reserve continues to rise interest rates up to 3x this year, is it time that a true bear market in fixed income has come to fruition? Are the "safe" government bonds becoming one of the worst asset classes to be in? I would say it is up there, with the exception of tech and anything blockchain. It takes some basic algebra to figure out if bond prices will go up or down based on interest rate increases or decreases the PRESENT VALUE (Price) of the bond. In short, interest rates rise and prices fall, interest rates decrease prices increases. For most bonds, depending on default risk, upon maturity you are paid the face value. You have security in your principle if you can afford to wait. Another interesting component is that the longer the yield to maturity of the bond, the more sensitive to rises and falls in interest rates. So with some Bonds 101 behind us, let me give you the trade. I propose that based on the projection that if interest rates rise three times this year as forecasted by the market, long term bond prices will decline in the short term (1-2 years), so I propose that, given the sentiment in the expectation of further increases in interest rates we short #TLT, a 20+ Year Govt Bond ETF sponsored by iShares. Some things to be wary of: If equity markets continue to fall, say to 20% down from highs, this could cause the federal reserve to STOP increasing rates. (speculation on my behalf) As well, if the markets do fall and firms start to go under (smaller scale 2008), don't be suprised if they start to bail firms out, look at how rich it made the government after 2008... Dodd Frank requires banks to be able to withstand up to 10% unemployment, $383 Billion in loan losses, as well as " heightened stress in corporate loan markets and commercial real estate." A fianancial collapse is probably not out of the question, but I'm saying that if any of the above scenarios start to play out, this trade would be out the window. So yeah, bold bet for sure, but might be something to think about. Please, tell me where you think I could be wrong.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by StuartTabor