TNX: Nice PennantTextbook consolidation as we wait for more signals from the FOMC. Fed futures showing no hike in March but two hikes by December, expect another leg up once subsequent meetings start pricing in. Good time to scale in.
TLT
TLT - This should open your eyes a litte moreJust look, study and begin to see.
If you know the rules about Action/Reaction, about the Forks, you have a better sense what potentially could happen when price reaches the centerline, or breaks out of the U-MLH and comes back ("overshoot" - "back to centerline" in pink).
Follow each bar, from left to right...slowly...think about what's going on bevor going to the next bar.
Feel how markets swing, up and down and up and down...breathe in, breath out...contraction, release.
As above so below
Drop me a message if you like it, have comments or want to learn more about the Forks.
P!
30 Year Treasury REVERSE $ZB_F $TLT $ZB1! #bonds #futures #forexWe are getting the beginnings of our Harmonic Breakout to upside this AM. Targets Shown on Chart.
ZB1! 30 Year Bond Daily $ZB_F $TLTDaily Harmonic View on Long Bond in 2nd Day of Yellen Testimony tending long here with stop below 149'30
TLT fill the gap?..in the 128 area? Against the generally accepted narrative of the Bond Bubble has Burst. What if a last hurrah as the optimism subsides and shelter is sought? Price action suggesting Yield down/Price up.
short everythingthe idea: the main asset classes are negatively correlated (stocks, bonds, dollar, gold) so shorting its all should be a dynamically hedged position. Shorting :
Dollar DXY x 2
Dow: US30 x 2
Gold: GC
Bonds: ZN
target: bottom of wedge, then yellow circle
TLT - Flipped back to centerline and now up again.After the hard selloff, TLT decided to flip back up the centerline.
I patiently waited for this pullback to initiate a RiskReversal, which is in play since last week.
Play it small and often and enhance your chance to fulfil the stats numbers.
P!
Trading TLT on the 4 hour ChartGoing long on TLT at 119.30 (around bottom of uptrend channel in blue). Stop loss is a daily close below 117. Target is 123 and then 124-70 - 125 depending on where the channel resistance is at the point of the push up north. Hope this is not too difficult to understand Chart looks a bit cluttered as there are several interpretations of the chart depending on the time frame being studied.
Portfolio update: I'm long a few thingsThis is how my equity portfolio looks on the long side -plus a stake in $RVLT-. I also have shorts in $NVDA and $NFLX, which -if we consider that $CEF and $TLT are pretty much like shorting the market-makes my portfolio 51% long, 1% in cash and the rest 'short'.
I'll hold this for the time being, watching the developments here onwards.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
TLT weekly - bouncing on major support - 1/4/2017Both RSI and MACD are on extreme oversold condition. I think it is a buy with a stop around $117.
TLT | 3H | BOUNCEProjected scenario on bonds. Market may rally on the short term then stop and go lower.
Cheers,
Keops
US 10yr Looking to Retest key multi-year trendlingBearish momentum divergence. The rise of long term yields on the Fed meeting was comical and offered a great opportunity to get long US bonds at least for a short term trade.
RSI comparison across SPY GLD USO TLTCapital flows can be inferred from a comparison of SPY GLD USO TLT in terms of relative RSI's
TLT: My Short Term Target (1hr)I'm expecting some short covering this week due to the Fed festivities.
Grab some treasury on a full bus of bears! Despite the bond bubble right now, I believe there's some room for another rally in bonds.
The election of trump have seen stocks driven to record highs, and bonds/treasury/gold crushed. The longest stretch of inflows into US equities since 2014 when the dollar rallied 20%.
Net short in 10 year bonds are currently at record lows: (-500,000)
i.imgur.com (courtesy of zerohedge)
A large covering of shorts could drive bonds much higher in the coming days into Q4 earnings season. I believe a buy at this level is a pretty reasonable risk reward on the backs of the majority in the market... (4% stops, 20% tgt)
Transitioning to Risk-OFF Inflationary EnvironmentWe are about to transition from a risk-ON inflationary environment to a risk-OFF inflationary environment. That means bond yields might fall even though inflation is rising. The US has been a huge beneficiary of the risk-ON move and as a result should see outflows. That means lower equities, and a weaker dollar. Given a falling dollar, rising inflation, and risk-OFF environment, it doesn't seem unreasonable to think that GOLD could do quite well. US treasury bonds should outperform HYG and EMB. Oil is the wild card. Higher or even flat oil prices will be much higher than they were last year. The YoY inflation effects if OPEC can stabilize the oil market above $50 for the next two months would really feed into inflation. Higher inflation would hurt the US consumer and business margins applying further downward pressure on risk assets. But I am getting ahead of myself. The risk-ON rally is likely over, and it's time to expect a risk-OFF rising inflation environment.
TLT: Short term rally, potential pullback in a downtrendTLT offers a low risk buy if we make a new high tomorrow, with a stop under the recent swing low.
We can aim for a retest of weekly resistance, as signaled on chart. I'd rather buy and exit there to be safe. There's a chance we might be able to flip short at that level, but I'd rather take that trade by buying $USDJPY and $USDSEK for instance, and/or shorting $EURUSD.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Sell the hell out of LT treasuries if we pullback to the meanOne of the most obvious trades out there. Pullback to mean would be KILLER value. Will be watching this closely and using Marty Armstrong's Socrates levels for confirmation.
There is certainly a chance we continue down further to that next support trend line before pulling back. In that instance we may see a H&S formation occur with the right shoulder at fib.
TLT weekly - approaching major support - 12/1/2016TLT is approaching major long term support line. RSI oversold. Expect some rebound (might be close to 40 week MA, which is $130 level).
