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$US10Y Negative Divergence Played Out"The TVC:US10Y Negative Divergence Played Out as we observed a scenario where the momentum indicator, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), had been showing bearish divergence with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield. This indicated a potential weakening of the yield's upward momentum, despite higher prices initially. Subsequently, the divergence 'played out' as the 10-year Treasury yield indeed reversed its upward trend, aligning with the bearish divergence signal. This divergence resolution may have led to a shift in market sentiment or investment strategies, impacting various sectors and asset classes."
TVC:US10YShort
by AlgoTradeAlert
VIX WARNING RALLY is SHORT COVERING SQUEEZE like I said The chart posted is the VIX of the VIX the VVIX has the cycle which I stated on monday and friday last week a short squeeze is now setup as the13.8 to 15.2 week decline would see a sharp rally. And that the IYT RSP BA and TNX were making a ending of a 5WAVES pattern we are only going to see an ABC rally and the last 5 days have been wave A so CAUTION I think the wave strurture in TLT is that of a wave 4 it should not get above 88.3 if that is the correct count then we will see a print of 81.5 to 79.6 and the VIX will be well into 29.6 to 38 so take any profits NOW
V
by wavetimer
TLT Got Reality Checked Harder Than 2016. -43%! Every 40+ investor and a pair of eye glasses is pounding the long TLT! call options TLT!. You sure about that? you sure you can handle 4-5 years of a complete dead TLT? Federal Reserve seems to be only interested in bailing out banks collateral directly instead of starting YCC so the TLT traders "bond market is the safest in the world" has just completely took a nose dive. The hope here is that WW3 starts / or JP Morgan blows up like 2009 but again do you think the FRED will allow that to happen? Not a chance. Bank Term Funding Program
SP:SPX
by FederalXBT
EURO VS U.S. DOLLAR. TO LOW, OR NOT TO LOW. THIS IS THE QUESTIONThis publication is for Euro against U.S. dollar, and quick and simple as well as all other publications by @Pandorra 2023 is about the end, so let's take a look on technical perspectives for FX:EURUSD . The main graph is EURUSD semi-annual 6-month chart (yes, they also exist on TradingView, as well as quarterly 3-month charts and annual 12-month charts). EURUSD is being concentrated on multi year floor, with lowest levels at semi-annual close around 1.05 (actual again in this time). Well, recently being inspired with finding NASDAQ:TLT multi year floor, I guess that breaking down the 1.05 floor in EURUSD can turn the price much and much lower. Maybe to 1.6 Euro for 1 U.S. Dollar somewhere in mid or late 2020s, or early 2030s. Patience.. Patience.. and once again Patience.. The Time will show.
by Pandorra
$US10Y Negative Divergence RSITVC:US10Y Negative Divergence RSI The TVC:US10Y showcases a negative divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). This indicates that while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield might be increasing, the momentum behind this rise is weakening. Historically, such divergences in the RSI can signal potential trend reversals or price corrections in the near future. Investors and traders should be cautious and closely monitor subsequent price actions and other technical indicators to validate this potential divergence.
TVC:US10Y
by AlgoTradeAlert
Long term gold.Long term entries and exits for 20 year bonds and SP500 (via SPY) in correlation solely to FED interest rates and US inflation rate adjustments. Here's my personal game plan going forward with this in mind- not war news. Starting to add TMF (20 year treasury 3X) equity now. ~Sell covered calls on it until FED pivot lowering interest rates. ~Add all TMF covered call profit to equity until FED pivot lowering interest rates. ~Hold TMF equity until the following FED pivot where they begin increasing interest rates again- no matter how long that may be. Last time, that took from Jan, 2020-Oct,2021. The time before that, was April, 2007- July 2015. As shown by the vertical blue lines on the interest rate chart, fed has previously held interest rates at 5.5% for years at a time. Specifically, from January, 1995 to April, 1998. Then, raising rates again in April, 1999 through October 2000. The tech bubble soon followed that.. If we are comparing things to then, and fed did get things right this time around and achieved the "soft landing," then we will see equities continue to do well as they did in 1995-2000. We would have potentially years worth of gains before reaching price to earnings levels anywhere near previous over valued levels... Where QQQ P/E ratio was a crazy 190 in March, 2000. Meanwhile, today, QQQ P/E ratio is 32.88. A huge fundamental difference. Which is even an 8% premium discount in relation to QQQ's 3 year average P/E today of 30.45 In 2000, 10 year bond yields reached 6.03% As of October 16, 2023, the 10 year bond yield was 4.71%. Showing previous radical levels include much more room for todays markets. Now., if we are comparing things to 2008 when banks were writing sub prime loans and simultaneously dealing with FED interest rates at 5.5%, the span that rates were that high was only from April 2006-April 2007. As sited to Forbes.com, "By early 2007, the housing bubble was bursting and the unemployment rate started to rise. With the economy failing, the FOMC started reducing rates in September 2007, eventually slashing rates by 2.75 percentage points in less than a year." In which that case we saw SPY equities lose 57% from October, 2007- March 2009. Worldly/economic conditions are clearly different today than in 2000 and 2008. Those are simply references from similar fiscal conditions where outcomes ultimately contradicted each other. To continue, from looking at past market reactions, I will ]continue holding TMF up until the point when FED pivots to begin increasing rates again. Subsequently, this will not happen until US inflation rate is below the 2% target goal. When US inflation is back down to 2% goal but not until, sell all 20 year bonds and start dollar cost averaging equal weight into: XLG- SP500 top 50 fund paying 8.5% dividend SVOL- Inverse vix paying 17% dividend TQQQ- QQQ 3X SOXL- Semiconductors 3X As for the current technical level of SP500 (SPY)...we are currently at the level going back to October of 2021. This is when market reacted to FED starting to increase interest rates again. To summarize, if fed were to raise rates again this coming November 1st, this support level will likely get bought up by the same buyers who bought in October, 2021 and January, 2023. Especially now that US interest rate is at 3.7% compared to the 6.7% it was in October of 2021. When you look at the reality of that, essentially the same SPY price today is 3% less inflated than it was 2 years ago at the crazy high covid spending levels. Adding that with the current P/E levels, I genuinely don't know if that is a fair value. One thing I'm certain of, big money knows. They clearly seem to follow the interest rate pivot decisions for market bottoms and tops. For 2024-2025, if FED lowers interest rates for any unexpected/surprising reason we haven't been notified of yet, equities price action absolutely would be on a path similar to 2000 or 2008. Essentially returning to pre covid levels. In return, bond yields would crash while the face value massively increases. Which is why my main play is TMF- leveraged 20 year bonds.
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by raylanboogie
Citizens Financial Group. Possible Upside on Q3'23 Earnings CallBond pressure... Pushing' down on me, Pressing' down on you, No man ask for... Technical graph says that possible upside with NYSE:CFG stocks could be possible, with projected/ targeted line at 52W SMA. With 6.20% dividends yield, double-digit operating yield and P/B just at 0.6, NYSE:CFG securities can be considered as quite undervalued. The protection level can be considered as multi months (6-, 12-months) low.
NYSE:CFG
by Pandorra
🐹 Caution To All TLT Hamsters - TBT Has More Room to DeliverTBT is a UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF. This Fund seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to two times the inverse (-2x) of the Daily performance of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. 1. Always look first. Never rush into a trade or investment blindly. 2. Wait, and wait again, for the pattern to develop. 3. Be patient and use alerts to get notified when the time is right. 4. Measure trading ranges and adjust your plan for sideways action. 5. Look for bases and consolidations. 6. Zoom out and look for historical levels of support and resistance within those bases or consolidations. 7. Markets can go sideways longer than traders can stay solvent. 8. Adjust your stop loss and take profit targets for the choppy price action. 9. Be prepared for false breakouts and false breakdowns. 10. Choppy markets do not trade like trending markets. Technical picture in AMEX:TBT indicates it has possibility to further upside price action, up to 57 - 60 U.S. dollars per share, as key multi year resistance (5-years simple MA) has been successfully broken at the end of 2022.
AMEX:TBT
by Pandorra
$TBT Double Top AMEX:TBT Double Top, A "double top" is a popular term used in technical analysis to describe a chart pattern that suggests a potential bearish reversal of an uptrend. Here's a breakdown of the double top pattern: 1. **Formation**: The double top pattern forms after a strong upward move or trend. It consists of two consecutive peaks that are roughly equal, with a moderate trough in-between, which is called the "neckline". 2. **First Peak**: The first top is formed when the upward trend reaches a resistance level and sees a reversal, leading to a price decline. 3. **Trough**: After the first peak, the price undergoes a correction, which leads to the formation of the trough. This decline is a sign of short-term profit-taking but isn't strong enough to signal a trend reversal yet. 4. **Second Peak**: Following the trough, the price will attempt to rally again, moving back towards the level of the first peak. However, it will once again meet resistance and fail to break through, leading to the formation of the second peak. 5. **Breakdown**: After the formation of the second top, if the price breaks below the neckline or the lowest point of the trough, it's a confirmation of the double top pattern and signals a trend reversal. The expected downward move can be approximately the same vertical distance as that between the peaks and the neckline. 6. **Volume**: Typically, volume tends to be higher on the left peak than on the right one. A noticeable increase in volume on the breakdown through the neckline can serve as additional confirmation. 7. **Significance**: The double top pattern is considered a powerful signal, especially when spotted on longer timeframes like daily, weekly, or monthly charts. However, as with all technical analysis patterns, it's essential to use additional indicators and methods to confirm a potential trade. Remember, while the double top can be a reliable indicator of a trend reversal, no single method is foolproof, and it's essential always to use risk management techniques.
AMEX:TBTShort
by AlgoTradeAlert
2
BOTTOM is the SP 500 A double zig zag has ended into the target Last week I talked about the alt wave structure if we failed at 4521 . I stated that if we fail to break above this we would then see a abc or 5 wave drop to 4331/4303 the ideal target 4303 in a perfect world and that the VIX would see 18.8/19.8 worst case if the bull was still within the final advance . I also want traders to review the tlt post THE MAJOR LOW DUE and the DXY . I look for the sp to march to 4666/4731 from here I am now 100 % long and margin of 5 % and fully long calls today I also took a full 100 % long in IWM target has been met . best of trades WAVETIMER
AMEX:SPY
by wavetimer
3
Reverse Triangle (ABCD) set up, D leg of the bullish CypherLooking at the Monthly Chart of the TLT 20yr bond etf. I see a large ABCD Pattern Set up. The Initial Triangle has not completed. Currently there is heavy selling in Bonds (C leg sell off to D leg of the bullish cypher) The Trend Line was breached, and now the sell off is acting like a Magnet to retest 2008 lows. It's worth noting this sell off appears to be A bullish Cypher pattern set up Around D leg. This set up is also tie to the USA real estate market. Based on the 18 year real estate theory, we're only 13 years removed from the 2009 financial market lows. Also based on the 18yr real estate theory, I see a project crash around 2027-2028. Which is likely due to a property tax crisis. At the bottom of the chart you'll see the Stochastic has already bottom, however the AD is still in overbought territory. You want to be buying when both the AD and the stoch are bottom together like in 2008-2009 (see white box).. Dollar cost averaging into the 20yr bond etf is not a bad idea either. With Bond yields currently over 4% and likely to reach 6%-7% before the TLT finally bottoms is a good hedge. I also like the fact in the future, I can write cover calls against this position, which will lower my cost basis even more in the future. I'm not looking to short bonds here, i'm a long term buyer of the dips with a breach of $90... price action could take this below $84, possible $78 but $84 is my target based on the last recession in 2008. Dollar Cost Avg for the win long term for the next 20yrs
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by moneyflow_trader
3