Opening (IRA): TLT February 16th 73 Short Put... for a .96 credit.
Comments: How ... low ... can you go? Targeting the 16 delta strike out in February at a strike better than what I currently have on in shorter duration expiries.
TLT
Opening (IRA): TLT Dec/Jan 77/75 Short PutsComments: Targeting the strikes paying around 1% of the strike price in credit at strikes better than what I currently have on. The basic bet here: that interest rates decline ... at some point.
(And, yes, it's been a somewhat painful trade so far ... ).
December 15th 77: .85 credit
January 19th 75: .84 credit
$TLT 20 Year Treasury Bond ETF The NASDAQ:TLT , or the 20 Year Treasury Bond ETF, appears to be undergoing a significant shift in its trend dynamics based on your description. Here's a breakdown of what you're observing:
1. **Bearish to Bullish Reversal**: This indicates that the ETF, which was previously in a downtrend (bearish phase), is showing signs of reversing to an uptrend (bullish phase). Such reversals are often identified through technical indicators like moving averages, momentum oscillators, or trendline breaks.
2. **Parallel Downtrend Break**: The breaking of a parallel downtrend suggests that the ETF has moved beyond a previously established downward channel. This is a technical pattern where the price moves within two parallel lines downwards. Breaking out of this channel can be a significant bullish signal, indicating that the selling pressure is easing and buyers are starting to take control.
3. **Bullish Consolidation**: After the initial reversal, it seems the ETF is now in a phase of bullish consolidation. This typically involves the price moving sideways or slightly pulling back, which allows the ETF to stabilize after the initial surge in buying activity. This phase often precedes further upward movement as it suggests that buyers are still interested at these higher price levels, and the selling pressure is not strong enough to push the price back down.
For a more detailed analysis, it would be beneficial to look at specific technical indicators such as Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), volume data, as well as key support and resistance levels. Additionally, fundamental factors impacting Treasury bonds, like interest rate changes, inflation expectations, and overall economic outlook, should also be considered to complement the technical analysis.
Remember, while technical analysis can provide valuable insights, it's always important to consider multiple factors and viewpoints when making investment decisions.
TLT ~ Have US Yields finally topped? (Weekly / Nov 2023)NASDAQ:TLT chart mapping/analysis.
Note: TradingView chart dividend adjusted.
Price action bouncing off Golden Pocket (66% Fib) support
Heavy trading volume = institutional activity (ie positioning?)
Rejection wicks on previous weekly candles = selling pressure still present (correlation with long-end yields holding strength)
Looking for re-test of lows + bounce to confirm double bottom support base established for bullish momentum.
Inverse play = price action engulfs previous candle, completes gap partial-fill + taps overhead resistance aka descending trend-line (light blue dotted).
Institutional short-squeezes could still be active - complimenting inverse play thesis.
Failure to break above/below either trend-lines = price action continues to contract until eventually ripping in volatile fashion in either direction.
Set alerts - monitor US yields - wait for trade to set up in your favour.
US10 years Bond Yield probably "peak". 10/Nov/23US Bonds probably the "Most Highly Bought Bonds" by any Countries's govermnt in the world (as safe haven). Time to buy US Bond ETF? E.g TLT, AGG, IEF etc?. What do you think saving money in US FIXED deposit bank aiming for 5% +/- gain ( while waiting for US dolar depreciate against most currencies pair) or buying US Bonds ( which is the inverse of US Bonds Yield ) or GOLD!? ( I Prefer Gold).
TLT: 20-YEAR AMERICAN TREASURY BONDS: SHARK detected. 20-YEAR AMERICAN TREASURY BONDS: SHARK detected.
We are in a potential turnaround zone.
The EMA.200 and EMA.50 are possible targets, as well as the red PRZ above.
To watch, as well as the ICHIMOKU / Bollinger / Fibonacci Levels
US10Y - Is it a "sea change" or a strong buy for TLT and TMF ?In December 2022, Howard Marks told in an interview that a "sea change" is underway in markets.
When I have seen below charts of TVC:US10Y , I have remembered that interview:
(Unfortunately I needed to remove the graph due to lacking reputation points. Maybe you can view with //x/HZKlWa8U )
TVC:US10Y was in a downtrend in a channel since 1980 and this long lasting channel has been broken at April 2022, and upper line of the channel became support at July and August of 2022. So there are some signs that it's not a fake going out of channel like the one in 2020 March.
Does Howard Marks right by saying it's a "sea change" ?
And in this weekly chart of TVC:US10Y , we can see it has formed a new uptrend in a new channel:
(Maybe you can view the chart with /x/DHeM0t8W )
See how good it has used that upmoving support. Now, we are again hitting that support and if that support line is broken, it would be a "strong buy" for NASDAQ:TLT and AMEX:TMF .
Both graphs have given bullish divergence recently:
(Maybe you can view the charts with /x/2jGkJkCJ and /x/5NGqJ3Ze )
This week we will see if TVC:US10Y will break the channel and confirm the bullish divergence of TLT and TMF. If the support would been broken at TVC:US10Y , then 4.20 and 3.40 and 2.75 are the levels to watch for the bullish trend of NASDAQ:TLT and $AMEX:TMF.
In conclusion, if TVC:US10Y will break the channel this week, I'm long in NASDAQ:TLT and $AMEX:TMF.
If not, we will keep watching if Howard Marks was right and it's really a sea change.
TLT - Keylevels - WeeklyI am accumulating TLT, I have accumulated in the areas: 83,84,85,86,87 and I will continue to accumulate as long as the price remains below 92.
Over 92, I will stop accumulating.
Macro speaking, we have this falling wedge and once the interest rate cuts on the dollar will start, I expect TLT to react positively.
First of all, we need uS10years to start a correction.
$US10Y Negative Divergence Played Out"The TVC:US10Y Negative Divergence Played Out as we observed a scenario where the momentum indicator, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), had been showing bearish divergence with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield. This indicated a potential weakening of the yield's upward momentum, despite higher prices initially. Subsequently, the divergence 'played out' as the 10-year Treasury yield indeed reversed its upward trend, aligning with the bearish divergence signal. This divergence resolution may have led to a shift in market sentiment or investment strategies, impacting various sectors and asset classes."
VIX WARNING RALLY is SHORT COVERING SQUEEZE like I said The chart posted is the VIX of the VIX the VVIX has the cycle which I stated on monday and friday last week a short squeeze is now setup as the13.8 to 15.2 week decline would see a sharp rally. And that the IYT RSP BA and TNX were making a ending of a 5WAVES pattern we are only going to see an ABC rally and the last 5 days have been wave A so CAUTION I think the wave strurture in TLT is that of a wave 4 it should not get above 88.3 if that is the correct count then we will see a print of 81.5 to 79.6 and the VIX will be well into 29.6 to 38 so take any profits NOW
TLT Got Reality Checked Harder Than 2016. -43%!
Every 40+ investor and a pair of eye glasses is pounding the long TLT! call options TLT!.
You sure about that? you sure you can handle 4-5 years of a complete dead TLT?
Federal Reserve seems to be only interested in bailing out banks collateral directly instead of starting YCC so the TLT traders "bond market is the safest in the world" has just completely took a nose dive.
The hope here is that WW3 starts / or JP Morgan blows up like 2009 but again do you think the FRED will allow that to happen? Not a chance. Bank Term Funding Program
EURO VS U.S. DOLLAR. TO LOW, OR NOT TO LOW. THIS IS THE QUESTIONThis publication is for Euro against U.S. dollar, and quick and simple as well as all other publications by @Pandorra
2023 is about the end, so let's take a look on technical perspectives for FX:EURUSD .
The main graph is EURUSD semi-annual 6-month chart (yes, they also exist on TradingView, as well as quarterly 3-month charts and annual 12-month charts).
EURUSD is being concentrated on multi year floor, with lowest levels at semi-annual close around 1.05 (actual again in this time).
Well, recently being inspired with finding NASDAQ:TLT multi year floor, I guess that breaking down the 1.05 floor in EURUSD can turn the price much and much lower.
Maybe to 1.6 Euro for 1 U.S. Dollar somewhere in mid or late 2020s, or early 2030s.
Patience.. Patience.. and once again Patience..
The Time will show.
$US10Y Negative Divergence RSITVC:US10Y Negative Divergence RSI The TVC:US10Y showcases a negative divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). This indicates that while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield might be increasing, the momentum behind this rise is weakening. Historically, such divergences in the RSI can signal potential trend reversals or price corrections in the near future. Investors and traders should be cautious and closely monitor subsequent price actions and other technical indicators to validate this potential divergence.
view on TLTAs per request,
here's my view on TLT.
Looks bullish for now, but it may not hold up.
could see it want to take the low for longer term bullish stability to come in.
I am not a TLT trader, just applying my techniques to TLT to share insight/ perspective for friends.
Long term gold.Long term entries and exits for 20 year bonds and SP500 (via SPY) in correlation solely to FED interest rates and US inflation rate adjustments.
Here's my personal game plan going forward with this in mind- not war news.
Starting to add TMF (20 year treasury 3X) equity now.
~Sell covered calls on it until FED pivot lowering interest rates.
~Add all TMF covered call profit to equity until FED pivot lowering interest rates.
~Hold TMF equity until the following FED pivot where they begin increasing interest rates again- no matter how long that may be. Last time, that took from Jan, 2020-Oct,2021. The time before that, was April, 2007- July 2015.
As shown by the vertical blue lines on the interest rate chart, fed has previously held interest rates at 5.5% for years at a time. Specifically, from January, 1995 to April, 1998. Then, raising rates again in April, 1999 through October 2000. The tech bubble soon followed that..
If we are comparing things to then, and fed did get things right this time around and achieved the "soft landing," then we will see equities continue to do well as they did in 1995-2000. We would have potentially years worth of gains before reaching price to earnings levels anywhere near previous over valued levels... Where QQQ P/E ratio was a crazy 190 in March, 2000.
Meanwhile, today, QQQ P/E ratio is 32.88. A huge fundamental difference. Which is even an 8% premium discount in relation to QQQ's 3 year average P/E today of 30.45
In 2000, 10 year bond yields reached 6.03% As of October 16, 2023, the 10 year bond yield was 4.71%. Showing previous radical levels include much more room for todays markets.
Now., if we are comparing things to 2008 when banks were writing sub prime loans and simultaneously dealing with FED interest rates at 5.5%, the span that rates were that high was only from April 2006-April 2007.
As sited to Forbes.com, "By early 2007, the housing bubble was bursting and the unemployment rate started to rise. With the economy failing, the FOMC started reducing rates in September 2007, eventually slashing rates by 2.75 percentage points in less than a year."
In which that case we saw SPY equities lose 57% from October, 2007- March 2009.
Worldly/economic conditions are clearly different today than in 2000 and 2008. Those are simply references from similar fiscal conditions where outcomes ultimately contradicted each other.
To continue, from looking at past market reactions, I will ]continue holding TMF up until the point when FED pivots to begin increasing rates again.
Subsequently, this will not happen until US inflation rate is below the 2% target goal.
When US inflation is back down to 2% goal but not until, sell all 20 year bonds and start dollar cost averaging equal weight into:
XLG- SP500 top 50 fund paying 8.5% dividend
SVOL- Inverse vix paying 17% dividend
TQQQ- QQQ 3X
SOXL- Semiconductors 3X
As for the current technical level of SP500 (SPY)...we are currently at the level going back to October of 2021. This is when market reacted to FED starting to increase interest rates again.
To summarize, if fed were to raise rates again this coming November 1st, this support level will likely get bought up by the same buyers who bought in October, 2021 and January, 2023. Especially now that US interest rate is at 3.7% compared to the 6.7% it was in October of 2021.
When you look at the reality of that, essentially the same SPY price today is 3% less inflated than it was 2 years ago at the crazy high covid spending levels. Adding that with the current P/E levels, I genuinely don't know if that is a fair value. One thing I'm certain of, big money knows. They clearly seem to follow the interest rate pivot decisions for market bottoms and tops.
For 2024-2025, if FED lowers interest rates for any unexpected/surprising reason we haven't been notified of yet, equities price action absolutely would be on a path similar to 2000 or 2008. Essentially returning to pre covid levels. In return, bond yields would crash while the face value massively increases. Which is why my main play is TMF- leveraged 20 year bonds.
TLT Bottoming tailTLT has printed a nice traditional bottoming tale. the 20 year yield is quite overbought and now its time to go down (hence TLT goes up). At the very least we should be retesting 100 day EMA
TLT At The Warning Line SupportTLT is currently at the Warning-Line of the white Fork.
We can see how price reacts to the Center-Line.
A classical retest that played out textbook like.
Then the same at the BASE Line of the Action/Reaction Set.
If TLT cracks the WL, then the next stop would be the Reaction line.
All this is in line with the destroyed Bond Market.
And that's the reason why I would short TLT on a rebound.
Peace4Theworld
Citizens Financial Group. Possible Upside on Q3'23 Earnings CallBond pressure...
Pushing' down on me,
Pressing' down on you,
No man ask for...
Technical graph says that possible upside with NYSE:CFG stocks could be possible, with projected/ targeted line at 52W SMA.
With 6.20% dividends yield, double-digit operating yield and P/B just at 0.6, NYSE:CFG securities can be considered as quite undervalued.
The protection level can be considered as multi months (6-, 12-months) low.
Opening (IRA): TLT October 20th 93 Short Put... for a .74 credit.
Comments: Adding in an October rung here in 20 year+ maturity paper after taking off my July rung. 30-day IV remains higher than SPY.
Am fine with getting assigned shares if that happens. Prior to COVID, I had a rather large TLT covered call position in my IRA, but felt compelled to take profit on it at or near COVID highs and have been looking to get back in ever since then.
🐹 Caution To All TLT Hamsters - TBT Has More Room to DeliverTBT is a UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF.
This Fund seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to two times the inverse (-2x) of the Daily performance of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index.
1. Always look first. Never rush into a trade or investment blindly.
2. Wait, and wait again, for the pattern to develop.
3. Be patient and use alerts to get notified when the time is right.
4. Measure trading ranges and adjust your plan for sideways action.
5. Look for bases and consolidations.
6. Zoom out and look for historical levels of support and resistance within those bases or consolidations.
7. Markets can go sideways longer than traders can stay solvent.
8. Adjust your stop loss and take profit targets for the choppy price action.
9. Be prepared for false breakouts and false breakdowns.
10. Choppy markets do not trade like trending markets.
Technical picture in AMEX:TBT indicates it has possibility to further upside price action, up to 57 - 60 U.S. dollars per share, as key multi year resistance (5-years simple MA) has been successfully broken at the end of 2022.
$TBT Double Top AMEX:TBT Double Top, A "double top" is a popular term used in technical analysis to describe a chart pattern that suggests a potential bearish reversal of an uptrend. Here's a breakdown of the double top pattern:
1. **Formation**: The double top pattern forms after a strong upward move or trend. It consists of two consecutive peaks that are roughly equal, with a moderate trough in-between, which is called the "neckline".
2. **First Peak**: The first top is formed when the upward trend reaches a resistance level and sees a reversal, leading to a price decline.
3. **Trough**: After the first peak, the price undergoes a correction, which leads to the formation of the trough. This decline is a sign of short-term profit-taking but isn't strong enough to signal a trend reversal yet.
4. **Second Peak**: Following the trough, the price will attempt to rally again, moving back towards the level of the first peak. However, it will once again meet resistance and fail to break through, leading to the formation of the second peak.
5. **Breakdown**: After the formation of the second top, if the price breaks below the neckline or the lowest point of the trough, it's a confirmation of the double top pattern and signals a trend reversal. The expected downward move can be approximately the same vertical distance as that between the peaks and the neckline.
6. **Volume**: Typically, volume tends to be higher on the left peak than on the right one. A noticeable increase in volume on the breakdown through the neckline can serve as additional confirmation.
7. **Significance**: The double top pattern is considered a powerful signal, especially when spotted on longer timeframes like daily, weekly, or monthly charts. However, as with all technical analysis patterns, it's essential to use additional indicators and methods to confirm a potential trade.
Remember, while the double top can be a reliable indicator of a trend reversal, no single method is foolproof, and it's essential always to use risk management techniques.
#TLT some serious volume and exhaustionKeeping an eye on TLT here - some decent volume coming in with exhaustive demark 13 signal. Let's see if it manages to put some sort of temporary bottom in here
TNote (US10Y) entering target area, expecting a pullbackThe TNote (US 10 year yield) has entered its target area for this up movement from the bottom.
Resistance area is between 4.65% to 5%.
We are expecting a pullback below 4% for the next months.
Then the uptrend should resume towards 7%, possibly higher.
A break above 5% would invalidate this view.
