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TLT

🐹 Caution To All TLT Hamsters - TBT Has More Room to DeliverTBT is a UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF. This Fund seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to two times the inverse (-2x) of the Daily performance of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. 1. Always look first. Never rush into a trade or investment blindly. 2. Wait, and wait again, for the pattern to develop. 3. Be patient and use alerts to get notified when the time is right. 4. Measure trading ranges and adjust your plan for sideways action. 5. Look for bases and consolidations. 6. Zoom out and look for historical levels of support and resistance within those bases or consolidations. 7. Markets can go sideways longer than traders can stay solvent. 8. Adjust your stop loss and take profit targets for the choppy price action. 9. Be prepared for false breakouts and false breakdowns. 10. Choppy markets do not trade like trending markets. Technical picture in AMEX:TBT indicates it has possibility to further upside price action, up to 57 - 60 U.S. dollars per share, as key multi year resistance (5-years simple MA) has been successfully broken at the end of 2022.
AMEX:TBT
by Pandorra
$TBT Double Top AMEX:TBT Double Top, A "double top" is a popular term used in technical analysis to describe a chart pattern that suggests a potential bearish reversal of an uptrend. Here's a breakdown of the double top pattern: 1. **Formation**: The double top pattern forms after a strong upward move or trend. It consists of two consecutive peaks that are roughly equal, with a moderate trough in-between, which is called the "neckline". 2. **First Peak**: The first top is formed when the upward trend reaches a resistance level and sees a reversal, leading to a price decline. 3. **Trough**: After the first peak, the price undergoes a correction, which leads to the formation of the trough. This decline is a sign of short-term profit-taking but isn't strong enough to signal a trend reversal yet. 4. **Second Peak**: Following the trough, the price will attempt to rally again, moving back towards the level of the first peak. However, it will once again meet resistance and fail to break through, leading to the formation of the second peak. 5. **Breakdown**: After the formation of the second top, if the price breaks below the neckline or the lowest point of the trough, it's a confirmation of the double top pattern and signals a trend reversal. The expected downward move can be approximately the same vertical distance as that between the peaks and the neckline. 6. **Volume**: Typically, volume tends to be higher on the left peak than on the right one. A noticeable increase in volume on the breakdown through the neckline can serve as additional confirmation. 7. **Significance**: The double top pattern is considered a powerful signal, especially when spotted on longer timeframes like daily, weekly, or monthly charts. However, as with all technical analysis patterns, it's essential to use additional indicators and methods to confirm a potential trade. Remember, while the double top can be a reliable indicator of a trend reversal, no single method is foolproof, and it's essential always to use risk management techniques.
AMEX:TBTShort
by AlgoTradeAlert
2
BOTTOM is the SP 500 A double zig zag has ended into the target Last week I talked about the alt wave structure if we failed at 4521 . I stated that if we fail to break above this we would then see a abc or 5 wave drop to 4331/4303 the ideal target 4303 in a perfect world and that the VIX would see 18.8/19.8 worst case if the bull was still within the final advance . I also want traders to review the tlt post THE MAJOR LOW DUE and the DXY . I look for the sp to march to 4666/4731 from here I am now 100 % long and margin of 5 % and fully long calls today I also took a full 100 % long in IWM target has been met . best of trades WAVETIMER
AMEX:SPY
by wavetimer
3
Reverse Triangle (ABCD) set up, D leg of the bullish CypherLooking at the Monthly Chart of the TLT 20yr bond etf. I see a large ABCD Pattern Set up. The Initial Triangle has not completed. Currently there is heavy selling in Bonds (C leg sell off to D leg of the bullish cypher) The Trend Line was breached, and now the sell off is acting like a Magnet to retest 2008 lows. It's worth noting this sell off appears to be A bullish Cypher pattern set up Around D leg. This set up is also tie to the USA real estate market. Based on the 18 year real estate theory, we're only 13 years removed from the 2009 financial market lows. Also based on the 18yr real estate theory, I see a project crash around 2027-2028. Which is likely due to a property tax crisis. At the bottom of the chart you'll see the Stochastic has already bottom, however the AD is still in overbought territory. You want to be buying when both the AD and the stoch are bottom together like in 2008-2009 (see white box).. Dollar cost averaging into the 20yr bond etf is not a bad idea either. With Bond yields currently over 4% and likely to reach 6%-7% before the TLT finally bottoms is a good hedge. I also like the fact in the future, I can write cover calls against this position, which will lower my cost basis even more in the future. I'm not looking to short bonds here, i'm a long term buyer of the dips with a breach of $90... price action could take this below $84, possible $78 but $84 is my target based on the last recession in 2008. Dollar Cost Avg for the win long term for the next 20yrs
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by moneyflow_trader
3
Opening (IRA): TLT October 27th 91 Short Put... for a .96 credit. Comments: Adding on weakness, targeting the strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit in the contract nearest 45 days duration. This is more aggressive than I usually do, since it's at the 30 delta, but I'm looking to pick up shares at or around these lows if at all possible. Because of this, I'll look to run these right up until expiry and/or take them off for "approaching worthless"; I immediately stuck an order in to close it if it gets to .05. If I get assigned, I'll look to cover with short call.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by NaughtyPines
50DMA and TBILLS indicating when bear market hitsHere's a closer look at a highly reliable cyclical bear market indicator. Over the past two decades, it has consistently proven itself as a trusted signal, often aligning with yield curve inversions. In contrast to employing trendlines and breakouts for precision, this chart relies on moving averages. These moving averages function in a similar manner to channels, as they calculate the mean, much like a channel does in various aspects. When there's a breakdown from this mean, it typically signifies a significant loss of support. From a fundamental perspective, this shift suggests that the market is heading towards a risk-off sentiment, leading investors towards products such as TLT due to their appealing pricing in comparison to stock valuations. The divergence we're witnessing appears unlike any we've encountered before. To return to the mean, it would require either a prolonged consolidation at higher levels for many months or a sudden and sharp downturn. I have my own theories on how such a downturn might occur, possibly triggered by an event akin to a cyber attack on financial systems, similar to the disruption caused by the COVID pandemic. However, that's a discussion for another day. In this scenario, our focus should be on reacting to developments rather than attempting to predict them. Currently, the most crucial level to monitor is a potential retest of the 4100 range on the SPX, coupled with how the yield curve reacts when it approaches its initial resistance. If a breakout occurs in these areas, it could signify an increasingly uncertain market environment. For a more detailed analysis, please refer to the chart below, which provides insights into the points I've discussed.
TVC:US03MY
by EdwinPus
3x Inverse TLT ETF: Breaking Out of Descending Broadening WedgeThe Inverse ETF for the 20-Year US Government Bond is currently breaking out of a Descending Broadening Wedge and is looking to go much higher perhaps between the 61.8% and 78.6% retraces which would be about a 500-1,400% percentage gain which also means that longer end bond yields are going much higher. I previously said I would repost this chart after the split so that the numbers would be accurate, and now that split has happened. I have my eyes on the $36 to hold and am currently looking to get some calls for that strike price expiring next year. It's worth noting the Partial-Decline we got before breaking out of the Broadening wedge, which makes it more likely to play out.
AMEX:TMVLong
by RizeSenpai
2
TBT- a bearish treasury ETF LONGTBT on the 30 minute time frame shows a trend up in an ascending parallel channel now at the bottom of the channel where it could go up or breakdown and go under the channel. The ZL MACD suggests some bullish divergence while the dual TF RS indicator and the ADX oscillator are non-commital. The immediate recent short term volume profile with a POC line above price suggests a lot of trading above price and likely short sellers. A longer time interval volume profile shows the POC line more than $1.00 below current price. Price could easily gravitate in the direction of that price magnet. Overall, I see a bias for a bearish move and will watch this to confirm. i will play this with put options to leverge the amplitude of the move albeit at higher risk.
AMEX:TBTShort
by AwesomeAvani
1
TMV setting up a reversal LONGOn this 4H chart- TMV the leverage bear Treasuries ETF has been trending up in a parallel channel. AT present it bounced from the top of the channel and is heading down to the bottom of the channel. It is there that I will trade long where the bottom of the channel is confluent with the mean VWAP providing an overlap of dynamic support. Near that same level is the POC line of the volume profile. Price needs to stay above the POC line for the probabilities to tell me to trade long. Roughly I am looking for a trade from 145 to about 160 for a 10% move more or less. The stop loss under the channel trend line for about 1.5 and so the ratio is about 6. Once in the area of the bottom of the channel. I will look to the indicators and zoom into 15-30 minutes as a time frame to find the entry. I will entertain taking a trade in a fair number of shares and potentially buy a put option for insurance against the downside to hedge against losses. I expect the trade to last a week or less and so averaging about 2% gain daily.
AMEX:TMVLong
by AwesomeAvani