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TLT

TMV Treasuries Leveraged 3X Short Inverse LongTMV is an ETF Shorting the Treasuries. On the 2H chart, price is rising as the treasuries are suffering value contraction while interest rates are steady or projected to rise. The chart shows rising volumes, upwards volatility as well as a PV Trend demonstrating trend strength. I see these all as confirmatory for bullish momentum. I will take a long trade into the next round of federal news. The employment data showing strength in new jobs and low unemployment will likely lead to another rate hike as the fed continues to try to beat down inflation and will not relent in face of those data pieces. CPI and PPI may add fuel to the fire this week and TMV may continue to rise.
AMEX:TMVLong
by AwesomeAvani
Opening (IRA): TLT November 17th 94 Short Put... for a .75 credit. Comments: Continuing to build out rungs in 20-year plus maturity paper, targeting the 16 delta strike to emulate an equities/bond mix in my portfolio using short puts, particularly since TLT 30-day is actually greater than that in SPY (15.1% for the former; 13.0% for the latter). As usual, I'm fine with taking assignment of shares at this level and then proceeding to "cover" (i.e., sell call against) if that happens.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by NaughtyPines
Yields are Yelling: Recession is comingIt looks like we are turning over. Coupled with gigantic short positioning of speculators on bonds (highest in history bsed on the COT Data), the chart indicates that yields will fall again. Why would they fall? Because of a flight to saftey and/or a recession. I am keeping it very simple, I just buy Bonds via ETF. I am long TLT, IEF and SHY. With that trade, I am also long USD, since my native currency is EUR. If we have a weekly close above 3,5% on the US10Y, I will exit my positions. It might also be lucrative to go short stocks now, but I wont do that too much. This might be a great trade, but I am viewing it as a set up for an even better one. We might get a great opportunity to buy stocks soon.
TVC:US10YShort
by Cyranus
2
TLT Poised for Promising Gains 🚀💰Name: TLT - iShares 20-year bond ETF Time Frame: 15mins, daily chart Direction: long Comment: I have a promising investment opportunity to share with you. After careful analysis, I believe interest rates have reached their peak, indicating a favorable outlook for bonds. In particular, the iShares 20-year bond ETF (TLT) is exhibiting all the right signs for potential gains. TLT is currently forming a solid technical stage one base, suggesting a strong foundation for future growth. Moreover, there's an encouraging development as the 50-day moving average (50DMA) is crossing over the 200-day moving average (200DMA) on the daily chart, signaling a bullish trend. While it's essential to support his fundamental view with technical confirmation, the prudent approach would be to wait for TLT to surpass the $108 level before considering a long position. This breakout would indicate a significant upward momentum. Considering these factors, TLT presents an enticing investment opportunity for those looking to capitalize on the potential rise in bond prices. Keep a close eye on TLT and wait for the breakout above $108 to potentially join the long side. I am personally buying now and after breaking 108.83 I will buy more aggressively. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Remember, this contribution serves as an informative analysis and should not be construed as financial advice. Stay informed, stay connected, and happy investing! 🌟📈 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 💼💰❤️ Trade like a pro, laugh all the way to the bank! Like and subscribe for more money-making !" 💼💰❤️
CAPITALCOM:TLTLong
by michaelmolek
Significant Divergence in equity markets and leading indicatorsObservable for weeks now, and recently, the divergence is much more pronounced. What I am referring to are that the equity markets appear to be more and more bullish, breaking out of trendlines; while the leading indicators (TIP, TLT, JNK and inversely VXX) show an imminent deterioration, about to breakdown of trendlines. The combined US equity markets and particularly the NASDAQ itself is very bullish, spiking up and hard in the last two weeks, extending further from mean. So, going forward the next couple of weeks, either one of two needs to happen. EITHER, the equity indexes continue the upward surge and the leading indicators reverse course to align and exceed (and return to be leading indicators); OR the equity indexes breakdown really hard to converge with the leading indicators. Watch for the latter, as the leading indicators break down of the trend line and show commitment. Then the equity markets may give a swift reversion into convergence and confluence. There are many ways to look at this and many more parameters to add in, but keeping it as simple as I would, perhaps waiting and watching for the next couple of weeks might be better than taking a committed position. Stay safe, keep a watchful look, be ready...
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Auguraltrader
TLT / TBT Ratio - a bonds long and short oscillatorOn the daily chart- I have plotted the TLT (Long Bond Leveraged) ETF vs the TBT (Short Inverse) as a ratio. The ratio is running on a cycle between high and low. On the chart for reference is a Hull Moving Average of 20 days. A more frequency cyling could be achieved with a paid Tradingview subscription and a charting time frame of 2 or 4 hours. For the trading idea, when the hull moving average is upgoing and the price is above it, the TLT can be bought while when the moving average of the ratio is decreasing and price is under it, the TBT can be bought. At a high pivot point, all TLT is liquidated and a TBT trade is taken . For a low pivot point, TBT positions are closed and TLT long trades are taken. The best trades are at the pivot points and when a doulble top or bottom are put onto the chart.
NASDAQ:TLT
by AwesomeAvani
TLT - Intermediate BUY Set-UpHere is my road map for TLT... T-Bonds This will have significant ramifications across many correlated markets. Think ES, DXY, Gold etc... I believe we close to embarking on a C wave move up to the opposing upper channel line. This could take on a variety of shapes/slopes. Time will tell. The bigger move ahead is down... although the move ahead will be worth participating in. See my published ideas linked below covering TBonds yields and ES/SPX pathways related to this supposition. Weekly view of TLT here:
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by oliverrathbun
Long bond TLT looking more and more constructive in this rangeThe TLT has been mostly chopping sideways for the last 4 months, and while it is still directionless, it has been able to stay above it's cycle lows and not roll over to retest them. This consolidation is looking more and more healthy and if we can finally get some closes above 109, this could finally initiate a second leg higher to those Q2 2022 levels. Started a position here and would add on strength on continuation.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by EvanMedeiros
TBT Bull Flag. MACD + RSI DivergenceTBT, the Long Rate Fund; Or short TLT fund is showing signs of strength on the MACD and RSI; with divergences. The previous month saw high volume indicating interest around the current price levels. It is sitting at the 200 SMA. Currently much of the market is pricing in rate drops. However, we have have FOMC on May 2nd, and have been hearing roomers of another rate hike by the FED. If this happens, TBT will likely go up, confirming the divergences on the graph, and breaking out of the current wedge.
AMEX:TBTLong
by loves2spooge
Vix sitting at key levelI forsee rates continuing to increase. Banking to continue having a hard time, the value of the dollar to get stronger, and the price of equities to decrease due to less attractive opportunity costs vs bonds. I think a lot of people are not expecting this, and instead were expecting the fed to pause and for a bull market to begin. I think that equities will be re adjusted quite rapidly, and this will cause the vix to spike. Therefore, I am long the vix.
TVC:VIXLong
by International_Leeroy
TLT 4 TH WAVE TRIANGLE ENDING DOWNSIDE 85Iam posting the chart as a new Warning to All traders I see this as nearing it s end . I will state if this wave structure turns down from the time window we are entering into my panic cycle May panic and panic low june 16 to the 23 th 2023 is the next spiral as stated jan 20th 2023 forecast . the Importance of the march 13 /23 spirals back to june 13th 1949 plus the other 3 spirals are a cluster at each cluster of spirals events have occurred MARCH 13 2023 AUGUST 16TH 2022 OCT 13TH 2022 SEPT 6TH 2021 AND MY MARCH 18TH TO THE 21 ST 2020 . .BEST OF TRADES WAVETIMER !!!
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by wavetimer
2
% BONDS & INTEREST RATESThere's obviously lots of discussion about interest rates and where they are headed. Today, I'm going to look at long-term interest rates based on the well-known ETF: $TLT . Long-term interest rates are useful as a guide for most people who get a home-loan or longer-dated loans and is usually less prone to manipulation (by Central Banks) than short-term rates. Bond prices move inverse to interest rates. A rise in bond price means a lower interest rate and vice versa. 📈📉 Let's have a look at the long-term chart. I'm using the weekly timeframe to remove the day-to-day noise. You can see that since the January 2020 peak, bond prices have fallen. This was when interest rates bottomed and started rising. The bear market in bonds extended to Oct 2022. Subsequently, we have seen a rally in bonds and therefore a drop in interest rates. The multi-trillion dollar question is: Was Oct 2022 the BOTTOM i.e. has interest rates peaked? My technical view is that the bearish trend in bonds is still the dominant force. So far the bounce off the bottom does not yet signal a trend reversal. For this to be the case, I need to see TLT move higher beyond 114. IF price moves beyond 114, I would be more confident in stating that at a minimum there has been a Change in Behaviour. At that price level, the size of the upward move would be the largest since the Jan 2020 top. Larger than the upward bounce that began in Mar 2021 and ended in Nov 2021. A Change of Behaviour signals that market participants are starting to have differing opinions. It is this change in opinion that sow the seeds as the first step required for a trend change. If the bond price falters prior to reaching beyond 114, it is highly likely that we have not seen the bottom and higher interest rates should be expected. Clearly the next few weeks will be crucial in that determination. I will update my thoughts as the price evolves.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by mrstockyetoro
Zoom out and use what you know to make forward predictionsTLT is a precise instrument. Weekly rarely leaves a gap behind, and if it did, it was a big move up or down. It's the most forward looking. Take for example Jan 1st 2020. What you will notice is a consolidation at the 200W and a move higher the week after the JHEQX pin. That move was a clear pivotal forward indication the market was going to crash in Mar 2020. Now look at the week the fed began QE on Mar 16th. This QE opened pandoras box of crypto, meme stocks, penny pumps, SPACS, and speculation nation that was 2020-2021. Now that bonds have been decimated for over a year we are at a pivotal point. JHEQX is set to expire today releasing a pin in equity hedging allowing markets to make their next move. My plan the next month is to find a suitable long TLT position for 2025 leaps. There are 2 gaps above in TLT weekly as a result of 2 major JHEQX pin weeks. There could still be a drop in TLT the next few months if markets & banks hold strong in Q2 and fed remains hawkish into next hike. A selloff in TLT next week (rates up) would most likely mark the bottom. 2020-2021 was an exceptional year. So far the recovery starting in 2022 to now has had its share of exceptional sell off moments and capitulations witnessed for the Sept'22 CPI print.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by SPYvsGME
TLT Volume Spikes UPDATED with ElliotwaveTLT Volume spikes prior to peak, when the fed first started raising rates. Now a volume peak right when the fed has said they will consider a pause for the next meeting. This could mean that the market thinks that rates are going to come down, and that therefore the value of long term bond assets will go up, as well as the value of banking stocks which are currently underwater. Previously, I mentioned that I though that the TLT would be going down, now I am updating this idea to include the notion that the fed may be done hiking for the short to long term, and that the TLT will be going up after experiencing large volume after a down trend.
NASDAQ:TLT
by International_Leeroy