Ishares 20+ Treasury Bond NASDAQ:TLT are particularly sensitive to interest rates: the price moves up when they are lowered and down when they rise. Locally, I'm witnessing banks lower their interest rates for CDs and shorten the duration for those with high-yielding returns. The general political rhetoric, especially due to the election cycle, is a push for the...
Can't overrule the politicization of the FED and the rigging of the numbers. If CPI comes in 3.3 or lower the FED will cut rates. I've also seen darkpool prints for TMF 3xTLT. Here's an insurance play if the FED cuts rates: August 75 calls for TMF are .15. That's a return of 15-20x!! While waiting for the market to shake out. Then I'd run into metals and miners...
Entry: Price broke through the 4H and 1D swing highs. Will be looking for longs/buys if the market taps the bullish zone. Stops: Close below the all time lows will invalidate the idea. Take Profit: Discretionary.
As I wrote in my last post on TLT, I had a target of $88. $88 was hit on Friday and is now slightly below it today. I went long both via spot and calls. I took March 15 2024 calls at a $101 strike price and I'm anticipating a large move higher playing out by then. I've marked off resistance levels on the chart. Let's see how it plays out over the coming...
I am accumulating TLT, I have accumulated in the areas: 83,84,85,86,87 and I will continue to accumulate as long as the price remains below 92. Over 92, I will stop accumulating. Macro speaking, we have this falling wedge and once the interest rate cuts on the dollar will start, I expect TLT to react positively. First of all, we need uS10years to start a correction.
TLT has printed a nice traditional bottoming tale. the 20 year yield is quite overbought and now its time to go down (hence TLT goes up). At the very least we should be retesting 100 day EMA
Long entry variants for TLT in anticipation of a change in the Fed's monetary policy. The scenario is too likely, so there are no good payouts on TLT options.
The TLT has been mostly chopping sideways for the last 4 months, and while it is still directionless, it has been able to stay above it's cycle lows and not roll over to retest them. This consolidation is looking more and more healthy and if we can finally get some closes above 109, this could finally initiate a second leg higher to those Q2 2022 levels. Started...
TLT is a precise instrument. Weekly rarely leaves a gap behind, and if it did, it was a big move up or down. It's the most forward looking. Take for example Jan 1st 2020. What you will notice is a consolidation at the 200W and a move higher the week after the JHEQX pin. That move was a clear pivotal forward indication the market was going to crash in Mar...
Rates should continue to sell off until inflation fully cools off or it kicks back up and hurts like crazy causing rates to have to go much higher and the price of this and other bonds to fall substantially. That will be the ultimate test. Everything seems call and collected in fixed income until the Fed has to raise rates higher in 2024 and rates shoot up like...
TLT looks bullish Double bottom pattern on daily time frame. Enter the long position on the resistance breakout or once the price retests the resistance and confirms it as a support. Target: 114,36 $
At the moment SPX may experience a downward trend due to higher interest rate hikes. This is because higher interest rates tend to increase the cost of borrowing for businesses, which can lead to a decrease in their profitability and earnings. As a result, the stock prices of these companies may decrease, which can have a negative impact on the overall performance...
An inverse Head & Shoulders has confirmed the neckline with a price target of 127 by the end of June. Last Jan I posted this recession projection for TLT And then I projected the spike in yields on the 10Yr right before the Aug Rug Pull from Jerome Powell. Finally catching the double bottom reversal at the bottom at the lows of 91.85 Bond bears are...
With the yield curve inverted, inflation slowing rapidly and global growth expectations revised downwards, long term treasury bonds are looking like an excellent allocation right now. A reversion to 2% on 30 Year yields over the next couple of years would produce double digit Annualized returns. Full story here: matthewiesulauro.substack.com
Buy shares of TLT Stop at $97.02 TLT weekly end of the ABC correction at the bottom of the Mean Reverse Channel
Clearly, inflation is a problem and I for one thought the rates rising were overblown after the first hike. (I was very wrong here) With that said, we are likely in the topping process for inflation, pending any new black swan events happen. The indicators show 4 things in regards to this bond. 1. No momentum, 2. Bear market trend 3. below the historical anchored...
We really need this to break the 35 level to confirm a change in the trend. If it does not hen somewhere in the 70's would be a high point at which it would be prudent to consider removing some chips from the table. The plan is to wait for confirmation and a retest then it's off to the races, or maybe the moon.
$TLT, the ETF for long dated bonds just gapped up to break out of a bullish-reverse-head-n-shoulders pattern (daily chart). Also, the 21EMA is begging to cross the 50sma.