Tencent Music: Docked inTME recently reached our magenta Target Zone (between $9.55 and $6.84) and is now trading just below its upper edge. We expect a deeper dive before the magenta wave (ii) comes to a well-deserved end. With the low in place, the share should then rise again and head for a new three-year high with the same-colored wave . Investors can therefore play the long side within the Zone, whereby stops could be placed 1% below the lower edge or at the support at $5.70.
TME
Tencent Music ($TME) Beats First Quarter Revenue Estimates Tencent Music Entertainment Group, (NYSE: NYSE:TME ) a Chinese audio entertainment platform, beat Q1 revenue estimates by a steady rise in paid subscriptions and advertising services on its Spotify-like music streaming platform. The platform reported revenue of 6.77 billion yuan ($935.9 million) for the quarter ended March 31, beating analysts' expectations of 6.63 billion yuan.
However, revenue declined 3.4% from the previous year. Tencent has capitalized on its position as the largest Chinese music-streaming platform with an attractive licensed music library while continuing to focus on advertising services and artist merchandise. Paying users at its online music streaming service rose 20.2% to 113.5 million from a year earlier.
The company's revenue from online music services rose 43%, driven by solid growth in music subscription revenue. However, revenue from its social entertainment services dropped 49.7% due to the government's crackdown on online gambling in 2023 and increased competition from rival NetEase's Cloud Music and Bytedance-owned short video-sharing platform Douyin.
Technical Outlook
We are expected to see an Upside Gap or gapping effect prior to the earnings report. Tecent Music ( NYSE:TME ) stock has a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 66.56, which clearly indicates an uptrend. The stock has been in a Rising wedge at the end of September 2023 towards this year consecutively surging towards new highs.
Tencent Set to Release 'Dungeon and Fighter' Mobile Game in May Tencent Holdings, ( NYSE:TME ) the Chinese multinational giant, has announced the release of its highly anticipated mobile game, 'Dungeon and Fighter: Origin'. Developed by Korean company Nexon, the game is a mobile adaptation of the popular computer game 'Dungeon and Fighter', which is considered to be one of the world's most profitable computer games.
This announcement comes after seven years of development, during which the game initially received government approval for release in 2017, before having its approval revoked. However, Tencent was granted a new license for the game in February of this year.
The official release date for 'Dungeon and Fighter: Origin' has been set for May 21. The action game is expected to be a significant addition to Tencent's mobile game portfolio, given its immense popularity and profitability.
Technical Outlook
Tencent Holdings, ( NYSE:TME ) stock is up 2.29% prior the fundamentals trading above the 200-day Moving Average (MA) with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 58. The stock has consolidated in price for the 2nd time starting a new rising trend after the current consolidation faced at $11.76 pivot point.
TME Tencent Music Entertainment Group Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of TME Tencent Music Entertainment Group prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 11usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-4-19,
for a premium of approximately $0.43.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Tencent Music Gains Reach $735 Million, Despite Revenue DeclineTencent Music Entertainment ( NYSE:TME ), China's leading digital music company, has defied market expectations with a significant surge in net profits despite a slight decline in revenue for the year 2023. The company's robust performance reflects a strategic pivot towards driving profitability through enhanced subscriber conversion and retention, underscoring its resilience and adaptability in the evolving digital entertainment landscape.
Navigating Revenue Challenges:
Despite experiencing a modest 2% decline in revenue to $3.91 billion for the year, Tencent Music ( NYSE:TME ) delivered an impressive 36% increase in net profits, reaching $735 million. The fourth quarter saw profits soar to $198 million, showcasing the company's ability to capitalize on evolving market dynamics and emerging opportunities.
Success in Music Streaming Subscriptions:
Tencent Music's success story is underscored by the remarkable growth in music streaming subscriptions, which witnessed a 39% increase in revenue to $1.70 billion. This growth was driven by a 21% rise in paying subscribers, reaching 107 million, coupled with a 20% increase in average revenue per subscriber. Despite a slight dip in monthly active users (MAUs) for online music, the company continues to command a significant share of China's digital music market, with over 40% of the population accessing its streaming services monthly.
Navigating Social Entertainment Challenges:
While the 'social entertainment' segment faced challenges, including a decline in MAUs and monthly average revenue per user (ARPU), Tencent Music remained focused on leveraging its content and platform strengths to drive sustainable growth. The company's strategic initiatives, including expanded user privileges and AI-empowered products, played a crucial role in enhancing subscriber conversion and retention amidst a competitive landscape.
Strategic Vision and Growth Potential:
Executive Chairman Cussion Pang highlighted the pivotal transition at Tencent Music in 2023, emphasizing the company's commitment to shaping the music industry's robust development. With a focus on capturing multi-faceted opportunities and leveraging its dual engines of content and platform, Tencent Music remains well-positioned to capitalize on the vibrant growth potential of the digital entertainment sector.
Investments in Innovation and AI:
CEO Ross Liang emphasized Tencent Music's investments in innovation, particularly in leveraging artificial intelligence to enhance user experience and drive music discovery. The integration of AI in music streaming and social entertainment platforms underscores the company's commitment to delivering personalized and engaging experiences for users while supporting artists' creative endeavors.
A Strategic Player in the Global Music Industry:
As a major stakeholder in Spotify and Universal Music Group, Tencent Music's influence extends beyond the Chinese market, positioning the company as a key player in the global music industry. With its strategic partnerships and relentless focus on innovation, Tencent Music continues to shape the future of digital entertainment, driving growth and delivering value to shareholders and stakeholders alike.
TME, its TIME to move UPSIDE -- generously!TME is amassing massive volume based on weekly data.
Net buy volume has increased almost 4-folds from 10M average volume to a whopping 38M, thanks to a rosy quarterly earnings AND new opportunities in the spectrum for the company.
The stock has broken its weekly descending trend line. Higher lows on both histogram and pricing has been created cementing the current price range as the new base for the coming series of ascend.
No brainer decision. SEED on this one.
Spotted at 7.0
TAYOR
Safeguard capital always.
------------------
Financials
Quarterly financials
MAR 2023
(CNY) Mar 2023 Y/Y
Revenue 7B 5.42%
Net income 1.15B 88.51%
Diluted EPS 0.72 100%
Net profit margin 16.39% 78.74%
Operating income 1.14B 90.98%
Net change in cash 2.57B 46.08%
Cash on hand - -
Cost of revenue 4.69B 1.99%
SVB: Announces bankruptcy!
The situation at Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) is not particularly complicated. In short, they borrowed short and invested long, mismanaged their liquidity, and caused their own demise. The specific steps were as follows: low-interest deposit-taking, overzealous investment in Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS), short-term liquidity gaps, forced selling of assets, and market panic.
Low-interest deposit-taking: Between 2020 and 2021, due to the Federal Reserve's extended period of 0% interest rates, there was a huge financing boom in the tech industry, with a significant portion of cash flowing into SVB. SVB's deposit liabilities surged from $61.8 billion at the end of 2019 to $189.2 billion at the end of 2021, with interest rates on this portion of deposits only around 0.25%.
Overzealous investment in MBS: With so much low-interest money, SVB naturally engaged in carry trade. Typically, banks focus on lending, but SVB invested a large portion of its funds in MBS. Their financial statements showed they held $13.8 billion of MBS at the end of 2019, which had grown to $98.2 billion by the end of 2021. In other words, over 65% of the deposits they took in went towards buying MBS.
Short-term liquidity gap: Normally, investing in MBS is not a problem because they can be redeemed at maturity. But SVB's problem was that it held too many MBS and had too few short-term liquid assets. In today's high-interest rate environment, tech companies are struggling to survive and are gradually withdrawing money from their deposits, causing SVB's liquidity pressures to soar.
Forced selling of assets: To solve the liquidity problem, management chose the cheapest option, which was to sell their MBS holdings. But now, market interest rates had increased from nearly 0 to 5% for 2-year Treasury bonds, and asset prices had fallen significantly in sync. Selling $21 billion of assets resulted in an $1.8 billion loss.
Market panic: For SVB, the $1.8 billion loss was still manageable because their shareholder equity was $16 billion. However, the problem was with the $100 billion of MBS that they had not yet sold. If there was a run on the bank, this could result in a potential loss of $15 billion, causing SVB to go bankrupt. Therefore, there was a great deal of panic in the market, causing the stock price to plummet by 60% in a single day.
SVB has now declared bankruptcy, and the US government has intervened. It is being managed by a specialized institution.
When a bank of this size collapses, there are bound to be chain reactions. The institutions known to be affected include Circle. For those who invest in stocks, they may not have heard of it, but those who invest in cryptocurrencies certainly have, as the most famous stablecoin, USDC, is issued by Circle. The total amount is $40 billion, and in today's announcement, they revealed that $3.3 billion of their assets were stuck in SVB, accounting for almost 8%.
This means that those who invest in cryptocurrencies suddenly find that their $100 has shrunk to $92. To say that it's a seismic event is not an exaggeration.
There are likely dozens of institutions of a similar scale to Circle that are also trapped, but for various reasons, they are not disclosing their situation. We'll have to wait and see when they come forward.
Follow me and you'll get more interesting investment information! Plus, I'll share real-time trading strategies during trading hours, including stocks, gold, crude oil, forex, cryptocurrencies, and more!
TME: VCP Pattern / PowerPlaySetup: PowerPlay
VCP: 4W 14/5 2T
RS: 98
Contraction 2 is setting up after the turn (trendline). China stocks are leading!
The posted chart contains a VCP (volatility contraction pattern). The first label "W" stands for weekly and shows the duration of the entire consolidation. In the middle label, the percentage of contractions is indicated (for example, "15/4"), with 15 representing the -15% depth of the base and 4 representing -4% of the last contraction. The last part "T" represents the number of contractions. The light blue lines in the chart correspond to the contractions. A more detailed description can be found in Mark Minervini's books.
RS stands for relative strength and measures the strength of the stock compared to the overall market. The value range is 1-99 with 99 being the highest value. The rank was generated by fyntrade.
Tencent Music giving up more ground. TMEA Flat formation is in order. This one is a switch from a previous massive zigzag - a law of alteration in practice! Where to from here. Probably not much lower than origin of B at most.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe!
Bearish on Tencent Music Entertainment. TMEWe are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe!
TME bottom can be very near2 possible bottom levels:
Level 1- 6.85 which it touched twice in the last 1 week.
Level 2 trendline touch, can be around 6-6.25, this level is very important as reversal can be started from here based on the history.
From this level i.e 6$, I am expecting a bounce to 9's range.
Fundamentally this stock is very cheap, 5B approx. sales expected in 2021 and 5.5B in 2022, which makes this to trade at 2.5 Prices/Sales ratio.
George Soros play with Bill Hwang stocks!This post is just for people to know what is going on between big players!
No recommendation to buy or sell:
According to Bussiness standard:
Soros Fund Management bought $194 million of ViacomCBS Inc., Baidu Inc. stock valued at $77 million, as well $46 million of Vipshop Holdings Ltd. and $34 million of Tencent Music Entertainment Group during the first quarter, according to a regulatory filing released Friday. A person familiar with the fund’s trading said the company didn’t hold the shares prior to Archegos’s implosion.
reference:
www.business-standard.com