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TMF

TLT Short term Treasuries Bullish LONGTLT as shown on a 30 minute chart shows TLT in a narrow range last week and then a pivot down to begin this week followed by a downtrend and a small correction until then the fed news of the rate hike came out. Today the general market dropped after some federal financial data came out and a treasury auction was a dud bond auction with little transactions occurring confounded by Bank of Japan actions inconsistent with the path of the US Fed. The mass index indicator has signaled a reversal as the signal rose above the reversal zone and then dropped below the zone thus triggering. The Relative Trend Index documents the end of the red downtrend with the signal line nearly returning above zero. Overall, I think TLT traders overreacted to the federal news and the catalyst from Japan. I believe this to be a good point to enter long using the pivot low as the stop loss. Targets are 100.5 just below the mean anchored VWAP and 101.5 just below POCl line volume area of the intermediate term volume profile. This offers modest potential profile for a relatively low risk. However, I intend to trade this intraday as a same day expiration (0DTE) option striking 101. I will set a set a stop-loss on the option of 15% while expecting potentially 50-200% ROI making for an acceptable ratio.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by AwesomeAvani
TMF - Long Term Leveraged Treasury ETFOn this 4H Chart TMF has rallied in the past week about 9% as the reports of the impetus of inflation has diminished. On the zero-lag MACD, the lines are staying above the histogram which has not converted from negative to positive. The dual time frame RSI showing low 1 hour TF in blue and daily TF in black has the lower crossing over the higher both at the lows on July 10th and now both over 50 with the low 1 hour TF still above the higher daily TF. This confirms bullish momentum. Price is on a VWAP breakout ascending from the support of the 2nd negative mean anchored VWAP to above the mean anchored VWAP with a retest as well. Price is now above the POC line of the volume profile demonstrative the dominance of buying pressure over selling pressure. On the ADX indicator, a positive trend is rising while down trend is dropping proportionately with the intersection and cross occurring on July 12. Positive ADX is staying above 20. Overall I see this as an excellent setup for a long swing trade targeting 8.05 in the area of the values of the highs of June. A higher target would be about 8.3 where there were some recent pivots If the fed does an about-face and pauses rate hikes, a significant rally could ensue.
AMEX:TMFLong
by AwesomeAvani
3
TMV Treasuries Leveraged 3X Short Inverse LongTMV is an ETF Shorting the Treasuries. On the 2H chart, price is rising as the treasuries are suffering value contraction while interest rates are steady or projected to rise. The chart shows rising volumes, upwards volatility as well as a PV Trend demonstrating trend strength. I see these all as confirmatory for bullish momentum. I will take a long trade into the next round of federal news. The employment data showing strength in new jobs and low unemployment will likely lead to another rate hike as the fed continues to try to beat down inflation and will not relent in face of those data pieces. CPI and PPI may add fuel to the fire this week and TMV may continue to rise.
AMEX:TMVLong
by AwesomeAvani
TMF 20 year 3x Leveraged Treasuries ETFTMF completed an uptrend from 3/28 to 4/6 and then a retracement of it. It is now positioned above the 0.5 Fibonacci level also the VWAP of the anchored multisession VWAP indicator in the fair value ( and high volatility ) area also near to and importantly above the POC line of the intermediate-term volume profile. This high confluence yields strong support for the continuation of an uptrend targetting $10.00 the pivot high this past February with a stop loss of $8.92. For those looking for a high reward entree with the requistite risk appetite a call option with a strike of $9.00 or $ 9.50 expiring 5/19 or 6/16 might be what is on the menu.
AMEX:TMFLong
by AwesomeAvani
US10Y yields reaching a historical topYield's are tapping the top of this downtrend established since 1981 while the monthly RSI is at the most overbought levels we've ever seen. Also we can see that the yields are above the 144 monthly moving average that typically acts as resistance. There is still a possibility at this rate, with how crazy this market is, that it could blow out of this channel and then meet resistance around 3.4%. I have doubts this will happen, but anything is possible. Is J Powell watching this chart and greasing up the printer? Only time can tell...
TVC:US10YShort
by Lynxys
2
I'm keeping an eye on this channel top for US20YSoon it might be a good time to buy TLT or TMF. The top for bond yields looks near to me as it gets close to this channel top. A good confirmation for a pullback would be to watch for a break in the stoch support. You could argue that it is also making a megaphone pattern with the support at 2.6% and the resistance at the channel top. I looked into this pattern and it could be bullish or bearish unfortunately, so it is hard to say what it'll do until it breaks either side. I charted a bullish possibility and target if it does break out, such a move could end up quite bad for the market, so I hope it won't happen.
TVC:US20YShort
by Lynxys
Bullish Bonds: Technicals vs. NoiseContrarian bet against the onslaught of bond bears. RH Technicals vs. WallStreet - Clean, MACD Bullish Divergence - Descending Triangle, Completed E-wave signals new trend. - 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement hit; Also referred to as the Golden Retracement . It is, after all, based on the Golden Ratio. - And potentially a False Breakdown, likely to mirror the False Breakout of the B wave in the E wave. Implications for the S&P go without saying. Best, RH
CBOT:ZB1!Long
by RHTrading
TLT LongTLT has pulled back to a very key trend line with additonal supports coming in below. On the hourly chart, we have positive divergence on TLT meaning we should see upside soon in the short term. Given the postures of the markets and how treasuries act as a flight to safety asset, it is reasonable to assume they will go up in price as stocks fall. For this trade, I advise picking up TMF (x3 leverage) with a stop anywhere from 28.00 to 26.60. I also recommend scaling into the position with 2 or 3 batches comprising your total allocation that you are willing to invest.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by BigMouse777
2