Get started

TNX

Bitcoin is likely going lower.. but not just yetWyckoff distribution is so very painfully obvious. I thoroughly enjoy when the big swingin 🍆's with giant piles of cash don't attempt to hide their tracks, because they don't think they need to.. and normally, they don't. Most countries cannot compete with trillions of dollars in capital that's also likely leveraged. There's not a doubt in my mind that the primary driver of bitcoin to these prices is old fashioned naked short selling. There is simply NOT ENOUGH BITCOIN for these sales to happen, but when you have enough cash -you're not worried about covering your shorts. A topic for another day, but if you didn't get the "hint" in early 2018 when the newly initiated bitcoin joined the likes of paper Gold and Silver at the CME -the futures market not only drives spot price (of bitcoin ), but it damn near controls it. However -there will come a point where supply runs out -especially if and when these sellers are caught with their pants down and unable to supply bitcoin for the buyers they're "selling" to. An outcome that will likely only result in many losing the bitcoin they thought they had purchased, but unable to withdraw from the exchange -because the bitcoin does not exist. This irresponsible tactic is illegal and has been since 2008, HOWEVER -it's not illegal on the open spot market for bitcoin . We went over the possibility of a bullish RELIEF RALLY in my last post, and that’s most likely what we’re seeing here. PA has already pushed above some pretty critical resistance, but has done so with relatively LOW spot volume . (**low spot volume does NOT necessarily mean that the move is going to be rejected. Low volume + decreased supply (should) = higher prices). Bitcoin is above the 34 WEMA, which is a pretty good sign for the bulls, however -it has not yet made it up to test the 21 WEMA and corresponding $40K resistance levels just yet. ((this is also critical resistance for a Wyckoff Distribution)). BULLISH SCENARIO: - Should BTC break across the 21WEMA and through $40K resistance, then I will become a bit more bullish in my sentiment. - While a break above the 21 WEMA is definitely a great sign for the bulls, if they cannot push the price above the $52.255 price area, then we will likely see the price head back down towards $30K, possibly lower. - A break above this price level would be EXTREMELY BULLISH , and bitcoin would likely break $70K very quickly. BEARISH SCENARIO: - A rejection at either of the two resistance areas mentioned ($40K and $52.255K), then a move back down to re test lower levels is likely. - There is a TON of confluence at the $22K price level ($21.724K) - There is also a bit of confluence...all the way down at $9.615K. Right now it's just a bunch of observing. Waiting. Planning -looking for a "tell" one way or another. A move ALL THE WAY DOWN TO $9.6K would be the greatest gift and should it fall down that far, we'll be ready. ALSO -keeping a lot of my coiniage on exchanges at this point in time does give me a bit of anxiety, so positions are adjusted for risk -but still set up nicely should this thing resume its regularly scheduled bull run. MEANWHILE -a BTC move up towards the $52K price area, followed by a rejection and move lower -would be INCREDIBLY bullish for ALT COINS, but we will see. Traditional markets look RIPE for profit taking. - TNX is falling sharply - DXY is about to breakout - SPX , DJI -all look like they're (finally) losing some steam. I see the DXY getting anywhere from a 3 - 9% bounce, both of which would require a massive liquidity event.. and the only place I see that much cashish coming from are the old traditional stonks. BTW... HAVE YOU SEEN THE GOLD SPOT CHART? on the WEEKLY or MONTHLY? HOLY MOLY -That's a MASSIVE cup and handle (i'll post a chart after I publish). I think the signs are pretty clear, but I learned a LONG time ago to check my "confidence" at the door -but this one is staring us all right in the face. Some days to note: June 21, June 25, and July 12. June 21 and July 12th are astronomical. June 25th is the QUARTERLY CME Settlement date. It's gonna be a really neat month. What are you all seeing? Are you bullish? bearish? Neutral? why? Intelligent thoughts and opinions welcomed! CheeriHO
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by BitCapJNY
4
What YOU Should Seriously Know $405 Key Level BUT......S&P 500 Slumps as Tech Bulls Scatter Amid Inflation Tsunami Worries By Yasin Ebrahim Investing.com – The S&P 500 closed lower Wednesday as the tech selloff continued on concerns red-hot inflation is here to stay after jumping the most since 2008, driven by rising auto prices and airfares. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.99%, or 682 points, the S&P 500 slipped 2.1%, and Nasdaq Composite slumped 2.7% The Labor Department said Wednesday its consumer price index rose 0.8% in April, and 4.2% year-on-year, the fastest pace since 2008. Excluding food and energy, core CPI increased 0.9% in April. "Nearly half of that jump was due to sharp increases in used car prices and airfare (both +10% mom), as demand for domestic travel rebounded with further easing in restrictions," RBC said in a note. The latest update on inflation expectations suggest this is unlikely to be a one and done story. The 10-year inflation "breakevens” -- a key measure of inflation expectations over the next decade – jumped 2.57%, the highest level since September 2012. The Federal Reserve has previously reiterated that the factors boosting inflation will eventually run out of steam. "While this was a massive surprise, the Fed will likely continue to make the case that a lot of these pressures are transitory and will fade later this year as consumer demand for goods subsides and the supply side catches up," Jefferies (NYSE:JEF) said. Investors continued to shun growth stocks like technology, which have higher valuations that are less attractive in an inflationary environment, where money today is worth more than money in the future. Google-parent Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) fell 3%, while Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) fell more than 2%. Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) closed down 1.3%. Consumer discretionary was also down sharply as Casino stocks and retailers came under pressure with Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ:CZR) and Gap (NYSE:GPS) leading the decline. Energy ended flat, outperforming the broader market, with rising oil prices as bullish sentiment on the recovery in crude demand ahead of the summer driving season offset data showing a weekly build in U.S. crude Crude Oil WTI Crude oil supplies fell 427,000 barrels last week, compared with analysts' expectations for a draw of 2.817 million barrels. Looking ahead, some on Wall Street are anticipating further downside in the S&P 500 if selling sparks a meaningful break below 4,100 in the S&P 500. "Our short-term call for elevated volatility in Q2/Q3 has materialized, and we are still looking at the potential of a correction in the magnitude of -10-15% for the S&P. If 4100 fails to hold on a closing basis in sessions ahead, we are looking at next levels toward the 3800-4000 zone," Janney Montgomery Scott said.
AMEX:SPY
by TTMTrades
6
Are bonds ready for a bounce?Bond have fallen a lot and quite fast. The sentiment is really stretched and most expect yields to rise more (bonds to fall lower). In my opinion there is quite a decent chance the bond bull market is over given that we had a massive blow off top in March 2020, but this doesn't mean that I don't see a potential bounce here or even bottom. Bonds hit key support, swept the lows before the big move up and are no showing signs of life. When I see so much debt, when I see slow growth and all the bad things going on around us... I don't think we'll get huge inflation any time soon. To me this is cyclical inflation after a supply shock rather than anything else. Many other yields are decreasing and spreads are the tightest they've been in years, so why would bonds go much lower? The Fed has failed to meet its inflation target for years, but they are going to make it now? We are also post the SLR cliff that could had been the 'sell the rumour buy the news event'
CBOT:UB1!Long
by BitcoinMacro
Bearish thingsI hope you're all having a wonderful Tuesday, here's what I'm seeing in the charts right now.. - Bullish momentum has slowed considerably since last week - Price action does appear to be forming a descending triangle, a BEARISH REVERSAL PATTERN - A move up to $57.5K is expected before resuming formation of the bearish pattern - Measured move of a break below support would take bitcoin under $46K - Should bitcoin get a bounce at this level, it would make for a beautiful double bottom on mid timeframes setting the stage for new ATH's in April. Open interest climbing again... BTC CME Futures are looking pretty bearish. 10yr Yields fall again today -DXY looking more bullish every day this week - SPX looking incredibly bearish, I expect a decent correction tomorrow and/or Thursday. BTC has been strongly correlated to the performance of the SPX, should we see a severe correction tomorrow -I would expect BTC to drop as well. This pullback is setting up for an incredible opportunity -possibly the LAST time bitcoin will see sub $50K prices.. (stress on word "possibly") Cheers. JNY 3candlecollective
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by BitCapJNY
3
IXIC Testing Resistance/Weekly IdeasIt looks like the IXIC might be making itself a new downward trend. Possible bearish flag after the initial selloff over the last few weeks. This week I will be looking for the IXIC to break up through the downward trend line and then the 13610 resistance line. If it fails the trend line, I think we will have more of a gradual downward trend, but if it fails 13610 and double tops, that could mean a large fast movement downward. This time it may drag the SPX/DIA down with it. On the downside we have some protection at 12610. Whether we do or don't test either resistance level, if it finds support here, this could indicate a strong bullish reversal. However I think that to be unlikely given the valuation of the market today and the necessity of a correction to maintain reasonable valuations in the tech sector. Unfortunately, the rest of the market will probably get caught in the crossfire. I am also watching the SPX for a probable normal dip along its trading trendline. Looking for some possible short plays there. Looking for a possible bear PCS on INTC this week as it tests previous resistance line for support in rising wedge pattern... Another possible bear PCS on AGI this week or early next as it shows a bearish flag in an overall downward trend while showing overbought on the Stoch. Will probably look for a MACD crossover before entering into the position. This will be especially effective if it tests and fails the downward trendline this or next week. Also looking for entry on a PCS for BK after failing $47 and a bearish crossover in the Stoch and one possibly forming on the MACD. Looking for a similar play on ED after possibly failing resistance for 3rd time while showing overbought in Stoch with a bearish crossover. Everything of course seems to be dependent on the TNX so keep an eye out for more panic selling with rising rates.
TVC:IXICShort
by hobo4000
4
Not even close to the top.. Well.. it shouldn't be... "There exist no episodes where the bitcoin spot markets dominates the price discovery processes with regard to Bitcoin Futures. This points to a conclusion that the price formation originates solely in the Bitcoin Futures market. We can, therefore, conclude that the Bitcoin Futures markets dominate the dynamic price discovery process based upon time -varying information share measures." ... "Therefore, it seems that the futures markets uncover new information that is embedded into prices and lead the way for adjustments to innovations in the fundamental values in the spot markets. Hence, the futures markets are capable of delivering a stabilizing effect on spot markets, which is one of the major purposes for launching futures contracts for bitcoin. Such a result is of considerable importance to regulators and monetary authorities who have shown misgivings about the growth of the cryptocurrency markets." Y. Hu, et al. (2020) International Review of Financial Analysis 72 101569 ........ Price action has been atrocious of late -and stinks of manipulation. CME gap filled this morning, with a bonus extended move. The Bitcoin CME Futures were created buy the overlords for one reason, and juan reason only - to &quote& "TAME" bitcoin. This price is clearly being suppressed as the 10yr Treasury Yields fall (slightly) and the DXY gains a little momentum -in a feeble attempt to delay the inevitable. - I'm not sure what Uncle Jerome and the rest of the global financial Power Ranges are planning.. but none of this is going to end well. Short -term plan, waiting for some definitive structure to develop before making any decisions -strongly considering removing 100% of my capital from all exchanges. What are you all seeing? Anything good? If you're interested in a free admissions into our TA Basic Training Course, please leave a comment below! BitCapJNY 3CandleCollective
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by BitCapJNY
2
Never mind the taper tantrum: Buy GoldAfter a long downtrend that is starting to look like a bull-flag type pattern, gold has reached a historically important level - which has corresponded with multiple inflection points since 2011 (including March 2020). Gold has a clear negative relationship with 10 year rates - which are also at a key historical inflection point in a sharp rise amid a multi-year secular downtrend. Rates are already rejecting hard off a key fib level (red line), and we should expect them to go down in the coming months. Furthermore, the 10-year RSI is at historically high levels. Previous iterations over 70 have usually corresponded with the start of major declines in 10-year rates. All these factors together suggest now is the time to go long on Gold.
TVC:TNXLong
by dtingbudong
1
SPY/DIA Volume DivergenceDivergence continues to build between buying volume and valuation in the combined SPY/DIA chart. I believe this indicates buyer fatigue in the sectors that have seen a bull run after the tech selloff. This, along with TNX jumps continuing to drive the IXIC down, could indicate imminent trouble in the general markets. It doesn't seem that the SPY/DIA can keep up enough to counter balance the drops in the IXIC to maintain overall market stability. If the TNX continues to rise and the IXIC continues to be driven down, I believe the SPY/DIA will eventually break the bullish trend and begin its own pullback, which could cascade into a full market correction or worse. If the TNX flattens out and stabilizes, I will be looking for the IXIC to double top, failing to break past its last peak, which will indicate that the market is not as strong as it has been. This could likely cause a rush of fear selling, causing a sharp decline, which would cause margin calls, with further downside. The SPY/DIA will most likely be dragged into this fear and downward momentum as they are still trading 17% above their last pre COVID support. This is further supported by the monthly IXIC indicating it being overbought on RSI and Stoch 14/3/3, along with the February candle forming a shooting star, and March forming a hanging man so far, both indicators of a bearish reversal. I will be looking to maintain liquidity past the week of 3/15, and planning on shorting the QQQ in the event of a double top as well as buying into UBT in the event of a full market correction or crash.
AMEX:SPYShort
by hobo4000
7
TNX 10-year ratesam.jpmorgan.com The Federal Reserve (Fed) announced on April 1, 2020 that it would temporarily exclude U.S. Treasuries (USTs) and banks’ deposits with the Fed (Fed deposits) from its calculation of banks’ supplementary leverage ratio or SLR. The action is the latest aggressive measure by the Fed to help ensure the flow of risk and liquidity through the financial system. It is set to last until March 31, 2021. Below are some frequently asked questions relevant to liquidity investors about the new rule.
TVC:TNXShort
by UPnDowns
Cryptos, Stonks, Fiat, and, Interest rates... The Next Ten YearsIn this video I give you my macro view of what is coming in the next ten years. This video is designed to give you a feel of what I believe is a likely outcome based on a combination of my different views. I have played devils advocate many times before in order to get a feel for the markets. The reason is mainly to feel it and to observe other peoples reactions. For every buyer there is a seller so the views and comments will also vary, it's human psychology. Just remember: I am not a financial advisor, I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd?
TVC:DJI
by AriasWave
IXIC vs TNXIXIC had highly anticipated and hoped for bounce after recent correction, which lines up with the 10 year Treasury bond rate dropping a bit. It looks like both charts are hitting resistance/support. IXIC looks like its neither terribly overbought or oversold on RSI. Tomorrow is a potential big pivot point for both charts. Will TNX find support and IXIC meet resistance? Or will TNX break down and IXIC break up? Either way, I am still of the opinion that we are not at the bottom of the tech correction yet, just a bounce day. Valuations are still too high in the tech sector and value stocks too appealing given TNX rates increasing. If TNX stays flat, I think we will see more tech growth, but a jump in TNX will probably correlate closely to a drop in IXIC as it has been. IXIC support looks to be at 12600, then 12230 below that. Be ready to hedge up if you haven't already. I prefer selling covered calls and using the premiums to buy puts when the RSI creeps above 70 on the individual company's chart while watching for divergence between volume and candles to indicate pivot points.
TVC:IXIC
by hobo4000