Get started

TNX

The Week Ahead: MJ, LIT, ICLN, IWM/RUT, TNXOptions Highly Liquid Single Name With Earnings in the Rear View Mirror, Ranked by Percentage the April 16th At-the-Money Short Straddle is Paying as a Function of Stock Price: AMC (24/221/50.6) (Movie Theatre) TLRY (26/162/44.7) (Cannabis) ACB (3/120/33.9) (Cannabis) NKLA (12/128/30.9) (EV) PLUG (44/114/30.7) (EV, Hydrogen) SPCE (22/106/28.9) (Space Tourism) CRON (47/104/28.3) (Cannabis) CGC (20/97/24.1) (Cannabis) M (18/95/21) (Department Store) PBR (16/117/18.7) (Petro) Options Highly Liquid Exchange-Traded Funds, Ranked by Percentage the April 16th At-the-Money Short Straddle is Paying as a Function of Stock Price: MJ (40/76/22.1) (Cannabis) LIT (46/57/15.5) (Lithium and Battery Tech) ICLN (9/53/14.5) (Global Clean Energy Index) EWZ (16/54/13.6) (Brazil) JETS (2/48/13.3) (Global Jets) SLV (30/49/12.4) (Silver) XRT (22/56/11.6) (Retail) XBI (24/41/11.2) (Biotech) XLE (9/49/11.2) (Energy) KRE (14/69/10.9( (Regional Banking) Broad Market, Ranked by Percentage the April 16th At-the-Money Short Straddle is Paying as a Function of Stock Price: IWM (18/36/9.5) (Russell 2000) QQQ (17/33/8.7) (Nasdaq) SPY (14/26/6.4) (S&P 500) DIA (7/24/6.1) (Dow Jones) EFA (18/19/5.7) (Global, ex. Canada/U.S.) Bond Funds, Ranked by Percentage the April 16th At-the-Money Short Straddle is Paying as a Function of Stock Price: TLT (23/27/4.9) (20+ Maturity Treasuries) (1.63% Yield) EMB (12/18/2.9) (Emerging Market Bonds) (3.99% Yield) HYG (17/15/2.8) (High Yield Corporate/Junk) (4.82% Yield) AGG (19/9/2.2) (U.S. Aggregate Bonds) (2.15% Yield) Comments: For a number of weeks running, implied remains high in the cannabis sector, with TLRY, ACB, CRON, and CGC at the top of the single name list, and MJ at the top of the ETF list. Pictured here is a plain Jane MJ April 16th 16 delta short put, which paid .63/contract as of Friday close, a potential 3.63% ROC at max, 28.2% annualized at max as a function of notional risk. Lithium and battery tech follows with the April (47 days) at-the-money short straddle paying greater than 15% and the April 15th 16 delta 51 short put paying 1.18 at the mid as of Friday close, a potential 2.37% ROC at max as a function of notional risk (18.4% annualized). The ICLN April 16th 17 delta 22 short put paid .47 as of Friday close -- 2.18% ROC at max as a function of notional risk (16.9% annualized). On the broad market front, IWM 30-day implied finished the week at >35%, followed by QQQ action at just a nibble under that mark at 33. The IWM April 16th 16 delta at the 189 was paying 3.05 (1.64% at max); the QQQ April 16th 16 at the 275, 4.15 (1.53% at max). An honorable mention goes out to the T-bill and TLT shorters (who knew that trading T bills could be fun?) who shorted TLT or /ZN at pandemic highs, only to see yields on the ten-year T's move from .50 to 1.5 (and TLT from the 170's to finish Friday's session at 143 and change.
AMEX:MJ
by NaughtyPines
1
Bullish Bonds: Technicals vs. NoiseContrarian bet against the onslaught of bond bears. RH Technicals vs. WallStreet - Clean, MACD Bullish Divergence - Descending Triangle, Completed E-wave signals new trend. - 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement hit; Also referred to as the Golden Retracement . It is, after all, based on the Golden Ratio. - And potentially a False Breakdown, likely to mirror the False Breakout of the B wave in the E wave. Implications for the S&P go without saying. Best, RH
CBOT:ZB1!Long
by RHTrading
SPY 3760: More correction to come, 3600 and 3500 as SupportThe catalyst would be a change of power and market waking up to the fact the US would be less competitive overall in the world economy for years to come. Then there is the tired bull that simply needs to rest and mean reversion. In the background though is the massive liquidity created to benefit the market mostly, sadly not so much the little people. At the current level, the cost of hedging for a correction to 3600 and 3500 is very low. So Put Butterfly and 2ATR IC for some coffee money. On my shopping list though, in a correction, are GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, COST, CRM, TWTR, BB, AEP, JPM and etc. Most are very well established companies with monopolistic businesses. Peace and love to humanity.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by Jonas99
2
🏴‍☠️Market crash 2021 BIG UPDATE: Bull trap on SPY and more...Hi mates, i sharing my thoughs about markets from last week and my view for week ahead. So there is little summary of last week: Stocks AMEX:SPY and NASDAQ:QQQ had another up week and reach another all time high President-elect Joe Biden promise another $2000 stimulus COINBASE:BTCUSD soared to 40K and reach all time high TVC:TNX rose above 1% Labor market worsening, key economic data showed last week COMEX:GC1! Sellof more than 4% TVC:DXY bounce from support at 89.50 level US Dollar Index - DXY Dollar index created inverted Head & Shoulders reversal pattern in demand area and started boucing off the lows, supported by massive divergence on long term CCI Volatility index - VIX S&P 500 Volatility index is still well above 20 level from 2020 and its set up for another bounce from its demand zone on 19.50 level 10 Years Trasury Yield Yield of 10-y Treasury pumping up momentum. Last week advanced more than 20% thats big move, compared several weeks ago Next week we expecting some important economic numbers and events: CPI and Core CPI Beige Book Unemployment Claims Fed Chair Powell Speaks Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales Through next week i expect higher volatility will come. At friday AMEX:SPY created bull trap by candlestick pattern hanging man by piercing higher rising channel line supported by divergence on long term CCI. So i will play stocks very carefully next week for long side. We can observe some flow into Financial, Healthcare and Materials sector so these sectors could be a good play for next week.Expecting further rise of TVC:DXY and TVC:TNX so this could make some further pressure on commodities like COMEX:GC1! .
AMEX:SPYShort
by Tomasgei
7
10 Year Yield to Spike above 1%? Currency War Heats Up!My long time followers and readers know two things about the bond/credit markets: 1) They are by far the largest markets in the world even dwarfing the Stock/Equity Markets. 2) If you want to know where the Stock Market is going, look at the 10 Year Bond Yield (TNX). Of course, some argue that things have changed due to central bank money printing propping assets up. 80 Billion per month in fact by the Federal Reserve. This is to ensure that interest rates remain suppressed. Many people do not know how this works. The central bank prints money by buying bonds. It buys the bonds, and then money is credited to banks/dealers etc. New money has now entered the system. Historically, government debt made the majority of pension funds because they were the safest asset. Bonds are (were) held for yield. For example, say you owned decade plus year government debt before 2007, your 1 million would be netting you between 50-80k per year depending on the interest. Post Great Financial Crisis (GFC), that 1 million would bring in less than 30k per year and even lower today. Pension funds need an average of 8% per year. You are not making that in bonds. Pensions have thus had to add more risk, ie: buy stocks. In fact, the average person retiring had to do the same. Since you could not buy bonds for long term yield, this money went into the nest safest asset: real estate. Back in the day, a financial advisor would not tell you to put all your money into stocks when you are close to retirement. Today you really have no choice. Before I discuss the weekly chart for the 10 year yield and what this implies for 2021, a quick lesson on what this chart shows us. This chart indicated the yield on bonds, NOT the price of the bond. Therefore bond yield and bond prices have an inverse relationship. When the price of Bonds drop, the 10 year yield chart moves higher (rates spike), when the price of bonds pop, the 10 year yield moves lower (rates drop). Large funds and those studying to be fund managers are well versed in the asset allocation model. Percentage of portfolio's mainly in bonds and stocks. In the GFC crisis, we heard the term risk off and risk on a lot, and is still used today. A risk off environment is when investors are buying stocks and other riskier assets and dumping bonds and other safety assets. A risk on environment is the opposite: investors sell stocks to buy bonds and other safety assets. The VIX has primarily been used to gauge when there is fear in the market and whether we are in a risk off or risk on environment. Gold and the US Dollar as well. But why not just look at the 10 year yield itself? Back to the weekly chart of the 10 year YIELD. Currently, they are yielding 0.926, but a reversal pattern is forming. If we get a weekly candle close above 1%, we get a breakout, and we can see yields increase to the 1.33% zone. Remember: this move would mean that bonds are SELLING off. This means that money is LEAVING the bond market, and ENTERING the stock/equity markets (and perhaps other markets such as commodities etc). Looking at the weekly set up, this move in yields is pointing to HIGHER stock markets. Again, my followers know this is what I have been predicting since markets began making new highs. There is nowhere to go for yield. Stock markets will continue higher until a black swan event occurs. Now let us look at the flip side. Central Banks. There is a currency war occurring between central banks, and the US Dollar and the Fed are winning. Why do nations want a weaker currency? Generally, the way to boost inflation and to increase exports to try to revive the economy was by weakening the currency. By the way, the classical economics definition of inflation is a weaker currency, meaning it takes MORE of a weaker currency to now buy something thereby increasing the price. The European Central Bank (EBC) wants a weaker Euro. The Eurozone is largely an export union, a weaker Euro makes European exports competitive, and the ECB hopes this would boost the economy has more European exports means more profits which means more jobs etc. The difficulty is that the Euro does not weaken even when the ECB attempts to talk it down. They have increased their 'emergency' asset purchasing program to 1.85 Trillion Euro's (remember mainly to buy bonds to keep interest rates suppressed: buy bonds to drop rates)! Euro shot higher. What option does the ECB have left? To cut interest rates deeper into the negative. Thereby making the interest rate differential between the EU and the USD larger in hopes that people would buy the USD against the Euro. So now you are probably asking why would investors/traders still be buying European bonds when they are yielding negative meaning you will lose money for holding them for the 10 year or more term? Bonds have now become a hold for capital appreciation rather than yield. Remember, if central banks cut rates lower, the bonds that you were holding issued in the previous higher rate environment become more valuable than the bonds issued in the newly lower rate environment. Bond prices move up as rates drop lower! Many are expecting this to happen next year. The ECB's next option in the currency war is to cut rates deeper into the negative in an attempt to weaken their currency. The Bank of England has made it no secret that they are also looking to go negative in 2021. Will the Federal Reserve follow tit for tat to counter the ECB? If the Canadian Loonie, the Australian Dollar, the Kiwi Dollar keep strengthening against the US Dollar, will the central banks in those nations cut into the negative to attempt to weaken their currencies? This is the currency war, and I believe money is already pricing this in. The move out of fiat: going into Bitcoin and Gold and other commodities. Going back to our weekly chart of the Ten Year Yield, it is possible that this bottoming pattern reverses and moves lower if negative rates become a reality in the US. This would continue our long term down trend in bond yields. You see this clearly when I zoom out on the monthly chart: To be quite frank, interest rates will have to be suppressed lower and forever. The world had a lot of debt before, but has even more due to the monetary and fiscal response against Covid. Money printing cannot and will not stop. The US passed a stimulus for $600, and talks are already beginning for a $2000 stimulus check. More will come. Negative rates are appealing because it means that governments can service the debt at a lower rate. A weakening currency is also great for debtors because it means they can pay back debt with cheaper currency. This is why in a very weird way many investors and traders are bullish bonds and see at least one more large move as bond prices increase due to more rate and deeper negative rate cuts. Insane but this is the kind of world we live in. Once again, highlighting yesterday's post: this is why you want to be in Gold, Silver, Bitcoin and other hard assets. The trade will be out of fiat as traders anticipate the next moves by central banks in this currency war. One more message I will leave you with. There are some that believe markets have a way to correct themselves. That even with all this central bank manipulation, prices and rates will correct to true value. This would imply double digit interest rates as bonds sell off heavy and interest rates spike. What I like to call the 'cuckening', and will be my sign to short stock markets hard. Now I am not saying this will happen anytime soon, but it is something to keep in mind. If such an event would occur, it would be the largest wealth transfer in history.
TVC:US10Y
by Uncharted-FX
4
Correlation between TNX and XAU & XAG !... We observe that starting from 1st April until 3rd August , TNX has dropped continuously and XAUUSD increased as a response to this action. In a similar way, TNX has been increasing gradually since early August , and there is a pullback in XAUUSD. In my opinion, the destiny of Gold ( or in general ) precious metals ( i.e. XAGUSD as well ) is highly correlated and dependent on the TNX ( 10-year treasury note yield ). So, in the next two weeks, I will be watching TNX closely to take a position in Gold ( short or long.. ) we will see.. Please keep in mind that TNX is forming a triangle here and I see higher-lows in the past two weeks. Breakout level is around 1.00 - 1.10 I think... ( This is my own view and definitely not a trading advice. )
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xemaphore
1
Financials in trouble200sma has been a strong resistance since the March drop. The red circles show 4 times trying to get to it. Placing fibonacci retracement lines shows confluence with a support level (green rectangle from late June --> early July) The 20sma crossed below the 50sma on September 27th. (Bearish signal trend model) Also, if we close at the current price, we are getting a bearish engulfing candle. I would feel comfortable getting in around $22.7, being fundamentally bullish on the sector.
AMEX:XLF
by dorfmanmaster