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TNX

National Activity Index, SPX, & the 10 year yieldThis long term chart compares the SPX (orange), US10Y (white) and the Fed's National Activity Index (blue). Note the extended periods of the NAI which remain below 0 marking recession. The 10 year yield tends to peak well in advance of the next recession. On a daily basis we see ongoing concern about the 10y-3mo inverted yield curve as an indication of looming recession. (However we've yet to see inversion of the 10-2 slice of the curve.) Despite the low unemployment rate of 3.6%, there has been sharp rise in expectations for Fed cuts in the next 6 months. Moodys: "The implied probability of a fed funds rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee’s July 31 meeting recently soared to 72% mostly in response to Jerome Powell’s apparent willingness to heed the recessionary warning of a possibly persistently inverted yield curve." A declining economy would result in falling inflation expectations and lower prices for materials and products. Recessions are often slow to arrive, often 12 to 18 months after a treasury yield curve inversion occurs.
TVC:US10Y
by dime
10 year T Note: New long term bull cycle emerging?TNX has been trading within a 1M Channel Down since 2000 up until January 2018 when it broke the pattern upwards. The mini uptrend found Resistance on the MA200 and has been declining for the past 7 months. We are currently on the most support tests of all, as it has touched the 2000 Channel's Lower High trend line and will test it as a Support for the first time. If that provides a bounce then we may be at the very beginning of a new very long term bull cycle. A Golden Cross formation should come as confirmation. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
TLong
by InvestingScope
Watch Treasuries for signs of the next Equity selloffThe inverse correlation of Stocks and Bonds have been quite telling in the recent months of equity volatility. The 10Y yield went from 3.25% in early Nov to lows of 2.55% as participants flew to safety in treasuries. In the last couple weeks as equities have recovered from the Dec 24th meltdown, treasuries have been sold with yields resting now around 2.75-2.8%. I am looking to see demand for treasuries as the major Equity indices test overhead resistance. After a 14% rally on the S&P in a matter of a month a pullback looks likely. If we see 10Y yields once again trending down expect blood for risk assets. Cheers
TVC:US10Y
by skyman9025
Yield spreads say more selling aheadDuring several previous liquidity crisis in 2001,2008,2012, 2016 the investment grade corporate yields spread over treasuries hit 200+ bps ... right now at an average spread of 150 basis points, may suggest more pain ahead before capitulation is reached. In other words investment grade corporate bond yields may be still too low. Based on what we've seen during several previous liquidity crisis the cost of borrowing in corporate credit may need to rise another 50 basis points before this is over.
M
by dime
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