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TNX

Current market profiling - 10/27/2014Fed meeting is coming up and it is expected to end QE 3. This chart has four major asset classes all in one, and showed risk-off period from 10/3 to 10/15 and risk-on period from 10/15 to date. as of today, the chart seems to suggest a new period of risk-off may be emerging. If it can play out that way, stock and dollar may get hammered and treasury and gold may get a boost. If TNX and SPY break out in coming days, that may mean 10/15 is a market turning point, and much more than just a counter-trend oversold/short squeezed powered rally. So again this is a critical juncture and may influence asset allocation for November, December and maybe January.
INDEX:DXY
by CosmicDust
Early Bullish Reversal... New Bullish Targets | $JPY #Yen #ForexFriends, As twitted yesterday (See: "$TNX reached forecast support last month; now threatens loftier rally - Watch $USDJPY" here: twitter.com), a discreet break of overhead resistance indicated a potential rallying to new highs. This comment concerned a simple analysis of the benchmark 10-Year US government bond ($TNX) relative to the current positively correlated Japanese pair. PATTERN ANALYSIS: Pattern traders might possibly perceive three patterns therein - One distinct bearish Cypher and two Bearish Sharks, one of which completing at the 0.886 of its zero-X bearish impulse leg, and another potentially completing at its 1.131 of that same bearish leg. The Shark typically comes with an acolyte in the 5-0 pattern, which complete the entire zero-X-A-B-C-D move at 50% of the B-C leg. TRENDLINE ANALYSIS: The recent breach of a bearish trendline did recently provide a clear visual indication of the bull's intent to own this pair. Therefore, in the most immediate time, I would be glad to see a conversion of that trendline from a once resistance to then-support before exposing a more bullish position, especially as the 4-hour break-out candle might possibly be followed by a consolidation event giving time for the market to absorb this directional conversion. Whether a validation of the trendline as support occurs or not would not diminish the bullish directional sign of the market, but it would certainly help establish added position. Traders would need to refer to their own set of indicators or method to gain added confirmation of support at that trendline if and once price validated the recent trendline at its topside. Expanding the trendline analysis to the remainder of the chart, one larger and softer-sloped (hence stronger) emerges, which is likely to impact negatively on any future price advance. In fact, it comes at a level that may or may not triangulate a separate overhead resistance level defined by the predictive/forecasting model. PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING ANALYSIS: The predictive model churned out an early bullish reversal sign (not signal), pending a bullish reversal confirmation signal, which might occur at the same time as the trendline validation defined above. Independent of that trendline validation expectation, though, a signal remains pending, and a set of targets have emerged, namely: 1 - TG-1 = 102.531 - 03 JUL 2014 and 2 - TG-Hi = 103.022 - 03 JUL 2014. The first target is of moderate probability (Yellow). This means that price favors its validation at a lesser probability than the typical Green colored target. However, the lesser the probability, the higher the resistance and reversal potential. For instance, the loftier TG-Hi points to a low-probability of being hit (Red), but probably act as a stronger bearish rebuff level, suggesting that more bears are entrenched in TG-Hi than at the TG-1 level. Combined with the aforementioned larger trendline, it will be interesting to see whether the intersection of TG-1 and that trendline might have any timing prediction powers over price by virtue of their intersection, which may or may not help triangulate a price x time level of resistance ... But don't count on it. OVERALL: $USDJPY turned bullish, yet a set of technical events would need added completion to validate this trend into a bona fide bullish reversal signal. Were it be by pattern completion, trendline validation or predictive signalization, all of these conditions remain unanswered at this point. Therefore, the directional indicator shall remain neutral for the time being, although this trader's bias is implicitly bullish while technically (explicitly) guarded ... In other words, need proof, and this is something I let my predictive/forecasting model answer for me. Cheers, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, CO USA ---------------- Twitter: @4xForecasster ----------------
by 4xForecaster
9
10-Year Treasuries Near Support | #TNX $XAU $XAG $COMP #ForexFriends, This past April 15, 2014, I offered a relatively imminent value where the benchmark 10-Year treasuries would possibly reverse and start a new upward trajectory. In this new chart, I would like to offer mitigating views from Fibonacci values, Elliott Wave counts, and an predictive analysis, each standing in contrast to one another, and offering lower values than the one imminent support defined this past April 15th, here: "$TNX: Early BULLISH Reversal Signal ... Confirmation pending" - I decided to do this to offer the different types of traders (pattern, Elliott Waves, Fibonacci and occult geometrist) an array of technical angles, all calling for a relatively narrow support and potential reversal. Please, refer to the chart for the overall technical commentary, under "Tech-Note". Also, in the link beneath the chart, feel free to review recent analysis for Gold, Silver, DOW Composite. Thank you for your supportive readership and friendly referrals. Cheers, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting ------------------------------ Get my signals, forecasts and analyses via Twitter. - Alias: @4xForecaster ------------------------------
TShort
by 4xForecaster
10
SPY/TNX ratio Been following this chart for a while, as a possible healthy/sick performance indicator for stocks. The SPY/TNX ratio is diverging for the last two years now, and If I read correctly this chart, it's not stocks healthy for sure. Of course can be diverging for ages or even centuries in this economic recovery miracle we all live in, until already built in energy pressure finds a way out. During 2008 foretold the coming disaster. At the 2009 bottom gave an early, successful, long entry, while mid 2011 the divergence led to a correction. What about now? I guess patience it's the only way to find out sooner or later... Cheers Panos
AMEX:SPY
by pantheo
$TNX: Early BULLISH Reversal Signal ... Confirmation pendingFriends, I just posted a (truncated) overview of metals, Forex and commented on the probable increase in benchmark TNX - See broad analysis and forecasting in Gold, Silver, Copper, AUD, NZD, CAD, CHF here: - In essence, fundamentals are pressuring the 10-year treasuries upwards, and the predictive analysis and forecasting has defined the following two targets: TG-1 = 3.29 - 15 APR 2014 and TG-2 = 3.63 - 15 APR 2014. Pattern traders might note that a 3-Drives pattern has consumed itself at the bottom (recent bottom consolidation defines the 3-Drives pattern). OVERALL: A relative risk analysis might be worth effecting at this point, looking for any risk-heralding IRX/TNX line inversion, and submitting the aggregate data to the predictive analysis and forecasting system. Before such quant-analysis, let me clarify that the TNX chart remains under a "Neutral" directional bias qualifier, until the bullish reversal signal gives its confirmation. However, my own directional bias at this time is neutral to bullish, based on the fundamental and technical data discussed here and in recent charts. Cheers, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis and Forecasting Get my signals, analyses and forecasts on Twitter: (Alias: @4xForecaster) ------------------------------------- Disclaimer: - All my comments are founded on unshared proprietary as well as common knowledge of technical analysis: Do your own due diligence before trading any market/asset. Additionally, my signals, forecasts, analyses and directional opinions are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. Again, do your own due diligence first, then seek financial advice from a licensed professional, and only then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster
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by 4xForecaster
5