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TNX

TNX - RSI remains above 50The 10 Year Note Yield, in prior downtrends would provide the RSI in the Negative well below 50. ARCA, as always is used to Prop Up the FANG GANG. But BANG, the die is cast. Anticipating a reversal in the 10 Yr Yield into the FOMC, which creates and enforces the SELL in TECH. EPS, as indicated months ago, would be a complete disaster... Delivered. NQ ES YM - 4 Gaps below Symmetry mirrors September 15, 2021 reversal setting up. 2% - 2.12% - 2.37% Price Objectives on Break of 1.765
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
4
TNX - MeanwhileWhile Higher Taxes for the Muddle Class are on the way. The Billionaires Boys Club sees the Stimmy as their Salvation. Higher Taxes? Only if I can get First Abuser Rights to 10X what I'll be required to pay for "Them".... The Bond Market believes the Stimulus - "Further Recovery, Infrastructure, Spending Bill" will get things on track once it's pared back to $1 Trillion... How do you mend a Broken Global Economy as Yield Curves are flattening around the Globe? You cannot. Global Markets - showing the way. And all those people out of work and resources? F_ck em, appears to be the Path. ____________________________________________________ Have a good evening everyone
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
10
TNX - 10 Year Note Yield / High to Highs FIB Wave ExtensionsThe 10Yr Yield is performing as indicated. The Reversal is trading the Trend Line and FIB Extensions to near perfection. Beyond the 1Hr, which is a better TF to illustrate the Price action - The Daily continues to remain in Strength within the trend. The Trade Plan has a break of the 1.7650 Highs as the Catalyst for the test of the Equity Complex 200SMAs. Given the Complexity of this Counter-Trend, Equites could continue to rise as Yields Rise for the Short Term. _________________________________________________________________________ The current Environment is dis-similar to 2016 when Yields and Equities were rising. Traders cite this as a non-conditional similarity and are using it to Echo. It is entirely dis-similar and not a confirmation by any metric. The Markets in 2016 were fueled by a Tax Cut, a Give-away for the very Wealthy and Corporations. Since March of 2020, Price action has been fueled entirely by the "V" Shaped Recovery narrative - Supported by $10s of Trillions in DEBT - Daylight and Shadow. The Meme's for Buying are far and wide - Fundamentally, they are almost always, without exception - Incorrect - Fundamentals do matter, Debt matters, Solvency matters... This abject degeneracy will meet its maker in 2022 as 5/5 concludes. Never in the History of the US Equity Complex has Factual Reality been this distorted. It will end with the Equities Markets down 50% - 90% IMHO. _________________________________________________________________________ During Powell's Friday discussion, his admission "Inflation is not Transitory, but here to stay longer than the Federal Reserve had Initially indicated..." Any Human purchasing Food & Energy was far ahead of this malaise from Chair Powell. Inflation Fears will need to be calmed for there not to be a Panic event, we indicated it would be Supply Shortages devolving into a 30%+ Price increase. Historically - this is the trigger of prior Inflations throughout History. _________________________________________________________________________ The Hourly indicated it is time to pay attention to a return to Fill at least one of the GAPs below and backtest the lower trendline, the overthrow appears to be short-term exhaustion. This would provide the NQ with room for a retest of the recent highs @ 15483, well short of our Price Objectives Between 15513/17.
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
NQ - Priced to Discounted Forward EPSIt is rare when one can have their Cake & Bacon. NQ performs this feat with Aplomb. It is an amazing effort, the same around every EPS Season. Lowering Guidance repeatedly while failing to make it widespread panic. Discounted Future Earnings via Yields, while managing to swim itself out the Abyss... remarkable. Semiconductors had an Abysmal Q3. INTC's report was a comedy all its own, after lowering guidance to Analysts 3 times... they finally managed a number @ 1.11 for the Chinese Wall, only to exceed it by 60 Cents @ 1.71 - Surprise @ 53.61%. Whee... but but but.... it was Wang Chung'd during Globex. The result of this nonsense - INTC was sold wholesale from 56.07 to 50.75. - www.youtube.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
4
TNX - A break of 1.645 during GlobexThis break, although outside of RTH, is indeed important. It signals a retracement potential, but more importantly it opens the Higher Price Objective @ 1.71 - 1.76. The Equity Complex is pretending the "what me worry trade" once again. We are concerned, as it represents a very large issue for the Equity Complex should the ROCs continue to build. All eyes should be on the Yield Curve's MidPoint. It can imply a rather large selloff. Today thru Tomorrow has all the hallmarks of problems developing.
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
5
TXN - 10 Year Note YieldWe Indicated the 10 Year Note Yield would initially retest the Highs several months back. We can see the APEX resides at the Prior Highs. The effort will be a multi-week affair, although as ROCs continue to build we are beginning to see Wider spread within the FIB Wave, indicating caution at a Resistance of 1.645%. The DX is benefitting from this as GOLD begins to SELL once again. It's time to pay attention very closely to the Bond Complex - it remains at Risk for now and the unexpected is shaking the confidence of a great number of Retail Traders who piled back into TLT on the aspirations of yet another Large Bull run to 172. Probability, 007s - is not on your side. The coming Reaction will provide some very real indications over the coming weeks. We can see the effects upon the NQ this morning. As 8 AM ET approaches, let's see how the Bond Complex begins its Position for the Week ahead. New2021 Lows for ZN as Financials appear to have made a Double Top. Trade safe out there, speculators. The past is not Prologue.
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
3
TNX - 10Yr Yield /'Come on IN Equity Dip Buyers"The waters warm - just fine and we assure you there are no predatory creatures lurking about. Please ignore the Trend. Our assumptions include: The Herd is always Correct. CNCB and Lacy Hunt are "Pitch Perfect". Rates are heading lower, towards ZERO. TLT's hiccup this morning is nothing, simply a small bump on the road until 172. Debt doesn't matter, It's in the "Future" - we never subscribe to the idea of "Back to the Future" as our overlords are merely us from the Future... We are cocksure confident - "This is It~!" No more down, only up, the SELL is Over. No one would dare SELL Bonds here with Negative Real Returns. No one would demand higher rates, ever... regardless of the insurmountable DEBT Load. The FED won't' permit the Bond Vigilantes to Price in Inflation again as it is - wait for it... "TRANSitory. Yeah, naw, wrong again desperados. Looking rather forward to the NEXT SELL in TLT. - HK
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
4
TNX - 10Yr Yield largest SELL Side Offer since Mid-FebruaryPricing in "Inflation" has been a series of rapid events for Price. Yields began the highest velocity spike in History during the January to April adjustment. Bond Sellers have begun to increase their Sell. Retail is now 83% Short against the NQ ES YM... ahead of the most important Week we have had in Months, Since February. TNX has run-up to its -.236, a Catalyst Level. Duress in Bonds will further increase VX in Equities, both directions as there are only a limited number of Capital Pools. Money will flow where the returns can develop: CASH METALS COMMODITIES BONDS STOCKS REAL ESTATE Crypto (Unregulated Illusory Capital) Choose wisely, this cuts both ways. It is remarkable how few Bond Holders did not envision this possibility. The engrained mindset becomes one of defiance at any cost to preserve the Cult's Dogma. The Bond Market within the United States is ever so slowly being destroyed, its destruction is accelerating for reasons we have outlined repeatedly. Trade Safe out there, disruptions are simply beginning. - HK
TVC:TNX
by HK_L61
12
TLT - ThunderBall as TNX trades thru 1.564139s and perhaps lower as this will begin to unravel the Equity markets as we approach the prior highs. The Fuse for the next leg down in the Equity Complex is being lit. And the reason for the RUSH to Wall Streets higher FIlls. Things are quickly coming apart in the REPO Markets as well. This sets up the potential for a large Rug Pull... 1.71 - 1.76 and it's going to get very Sporty. Banks are not lending, higher rates do them very little. Savers are being torqued by Inflation as the Wood Panelers and 007s can't seem to find a Bid for their Junk Paper. This will get nasty in the next 10 days. Very Nasty, they are using the lul between Expiry in VX to hoist price as far as they can only to let it go again. We see 15K on NQ with the Gap at 15.2K and the Ledge 15.4K. NQ has traded the -382 of the 15399 to 14367 decline. With tomorrow's Macro Job / Employment Report, the silliness can get out of hand quickly. IMHO, this will end rather badly as we roll back over and begin the 200SMA assualt.
NASDAQ:TLT
by HK_L61
10
Inverse correlation between Gold/copper VS. YieldWe have a very nice inverse correlation between Gold/Copper (XAUUSD/CPRUSD) VS. TNX ( 10 year yield). in the red zone we see TNX going down while The Gold/copper chart resist to go up... Maybe ( and just maybe ) TNX was making a bull flag and according to this inflation we may see more upside from TNX and then Gold/Copper will go down. My goal range for TNX is about 1.92 while we are approaching to the end of the year and we may see Gold again in 1600$ range. Going up in TNX will hit the bond market and a lot of money will flow into stock market ( positive for #SPX #SPY), and the result will be drastic uspide move into stock market. How long will this continue, is the question. What s your IDEA ? put it in comments.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by nabavi57
Bonds - US10Y Cannot and Will Not Rise SignificantlyIdea for 10Y Treasury Bond Yields: I speculate that yields cannot and will not rise significantly until the equity bubble pops. I think that it will start a wave reaching 0.7 this month. Why is that? - There is almost $300 trillion in private sector debt globally. - Companies used margin debt for share buybacks to boost EPS, creating the illusion of economic growth. - There is a borrowing cost for private debtors, debt must be serviced. - 10Y is used as a risk-free rate benchmark for credit derivatives, especially for risk spreads. - Furthermore, rising yields means that a rate hike would inevitably follow. - The premium on credit risk is at a record low (BBB). - Even junk bonds and Greece is negatively yielding. - Zombie companies are at an ATH (one that isn’t generating enough income to cover the annual interest payments on its debts. With interest rates so low, these zombies have stayed “alive” by refinancing their debts at increasingly lower rates, or simply tacking on more debt to keep breathing. But with rates rising, zombies may be forced to refinance at higher rates.) - Since debt is increasing, the magnitude that rates can rise before negatively impacting the private sector is decreasing. Any significant rise in rates will quickly cause mass insolvencies in these zombie companies, which also would cause a cascade of liquidations in yield chasers who had sold credit default swaps - accumulating asymmetric risk. It is a massive, massive bubble, and any significant rise in rates would collapse the equity market and the economy. The only way to keep equities stable would be for negative rates, but the dollar is without a doubt - rising. As debt rises, liquidity is sucked out of the collateral pool in a proportional amount. You will just eventually get to a point where debt servicing becomes too expensive anyway from a collateral supply perspective. That's the fundamental condition which will eventually bring about the reflexive regression to the mean. So is it a slow and painful death, or a quick flush? I'd bet on the latter... more money to be made for insiders who short it. In fact, I would wager that the Bill Ackmans of the world are betting big on credit default swaps on zombie companies, similar to CDSs/CDOs on subprime mortgages in 2008. People are buying with both hands bonds which are expected to yield less than what they paid for at the maturity. Any change in conditions would cause this to be capitulation into a bid-less market, don't you think? It's pure insanity and there is only one thing to do here. GLHF - DPT
TVC:US10YShort
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
4
LMND ~ Multiple Support levelEvery circle in the chart is pointing out a test of the support level at $80 approximately. As you can see, since the IPO, we have tested this level multiple times. The arrow in the RSI shows a positive divergence, where every test had a slightly higher level. Unfortunately, if you used this method on the range from early March to late April, you would have gotten stopped out most likely as we had a failed breakout. We are getting another potential setup, as the RSI is once again diverging, and we are testing the same support level. The one thing different aspect with the latest positive divergence is we never got under 30 RSI; which is a signal of strengthening.
NYSE:LMNDLong
by dorfmanmaster