BCHUSD Back in neutral with bearish undertone under 1539BCHUSD Back in Neutral but with bearish undertone whilst 1539 cannot be beaten
This has been a minefield to trade over the last few hours.
Longs bought at 1461 got blown away with stops at 1450 and
shorts from the same point have also been whipsawed out for
another 10 point or so loss. A complete mess.
The big green bear engulfing candle shows a lot of interest
but the pin bars at the top and bottom still signify uncertainty.
The way it's now backing and filling down the same big green
candle is mildly bullish, though. To stay that way it now has
to hold up at 1516-1504 and then start to push up into the
dynamics/parallels above it. Only once it can break above the
parallels will BCH break free of this continuation pattern. But
it cannot be shorted whilst 1516-1504 cntinues to hold up
declines. For a short to have a chance of winning now 1500
must give way which would likely lead to a fast test of 1461
again at least (safest part of this trade) and quite likely to the
lower parallel before it bounces again.
As with BTG right now this is near term neutral above
1516-1504 and yet still negative whilst unable to break above
1539 and hold up there. It's more a sell off the centre parallel
than a buy but needs to break below 1516-1504
for a quick short - or it holds up here and makes an attempt
to break the parallels above it. It remains in a weak technical
position whilst trapped below 1539 so stops on any shorts
need to be placed above here.
To
DXY Dollar Index Close to collapse againDXY Dollar Index Close to collapse once more
The last rally was 77 pips. this one at 93.27 high is the same.
DXY will either fail here, the most likely spot, or at 93.49, just
22 pips higher. It should fall away by 2.4% to 91.05. Good for EUR
gold, silver, copper longs and baby Alts who need a break and
maybe oil too for the next few days. Asusual about 3 wise
men will read this comment.
It's probably one of the most important there is. Sensible you:)
LTCUSD LitecoinDollar: Raise stops here to 88LTCUSD Litecoin Dollar
Still pushing higher but there is a danger here of loss of upside
momentum here without more buying power arriving soon.
Key near term support has been established at 89. Any fall
below 88 will likely mean a fall back to 82 at least.
Raise stops on any longs here to 88.
CFI 7mTo Infinity and beyond. BK all day!!!!! Thank you. I got a 1 on 1 on with you @ Wednesday 3pm. Cant wait... Strangely enough, that happens to be exactly the same time that Indahash starts phase 2 of their ICO .. (Hmmmm...synchronicity?>>>>
"The charts make the news"-BK
I'm pretty new to charting but its awe-inspiring how strong their effect really is. These are companies with employees, and customers, yet they're subject to laws they are not even aware exist.
On a weird note... Imagine if human beings have charts? What do you think would symbolizes moving averages in our lives so that when their paths cross, we start to grow?
Peace and Love,
9 Lives
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Clean Chart Waiting for dust to settle- no hurryBitcoin: BTCUSD Do the Math another way
Whilst Bitcoin gyrates around and waiting for a clear pattern to emerge - no hurry - old bull mode, not young one - waiting
for dust to settle - here's a review of yesterday's tough-won 2% gains. Today ETHUSD has been clearer, so wrote on that in
interim. It's just a prettier chart right now, and more profitable too today, way better than Bitcoin, so far. So am waiting f
or better signal here. In meantime, consider, please:
If you can make 1% trading Bitcoin per day, just 1%, you will make 365% per year returns, buying Bitcoin three times over.
Every year. Or you can buy and hold. Or both.
One thing we learned last night was that support just above
7800 is still strong but that we need to keep stops under 7660 for now: we don't want these taking for they're the last nails
in the freeezer lid - the stops for long term holds at 7717.
Frustrated by the timings of Bitcoin's gyrations. If only it
would sleep. It was right to accept defeat at 8175 yesterday and look for shorts. The long was a waste of time, losing
around 10 points on entry at 8175 and on exit on break of the dynamic underpinning the day's lows. But sometimes it's OK to
admit defeat if that's what the chart is telling us to do. We could have been hopefully/stubbornly long still had the chart
not shown us that bears were beginning to smell blood after such a weak rally in low volume conditions..at least we saw it
coming and so day traders cannot have been the wrong side of this - but the levels where it was expected to bounce, 7938
and 7803, proved useless in the scheme of things. The low was 7876, some 73 points away from the ideal buy point. Rubbish
Totals
Apart from a very fast 100 points short early yesterday and then a very slow 10 point loss on the long (all day, it seemed,
as Bitcoin took a rest at Thanksgiving too) followed by shorts back to 8060 from 8165 for 100 points quick profit and then a
second short from this level with stops above profits were hard to come by yesterday...and short from 8060 is where it
went wrong due to having the stop way too tight - my fault: if I'd kept to usual 50 points this short back to the next level at
7938 at least would have been good. Right call, Dumb stop. Are you learning too, would be reassuring to know that some
of you are actually reading this never-ending saga.
So 200 points of short profits coulda/woulda/shoulda been
320 but for a stop. So that was mistake 1. Stupid stop
Next was an admittedly 'speccy' buy at the small double
bottom at 7990 for an immediate 15 point loss followedby another 20 point loss after a buy at 8210.
So the last 24 hours including today's loss have yielded only 180 or so points, maybe 300 if you were more sensible than I
was with a 50 point stop, not 20.
So maybe 2%+. On a bad day. So if you can make that on a bad bad day it is quite possible to make 1% on a good day. If just
less than one in three days yield 1% returns and th either two were to cancel themselves out between wins and losses it
would be very hardwork and very tiresome, but would still yield a rough 100% return on capital each year.
So far in the past month we have taken over 3850 points from Bitcoin long and short and got some bagged up in the freezer
too...maybe. Those 3850 are REAL points. Whether Bitcoin is or not doesn't really matter.
The only thing that matters here is points. Right?
Buy Bitcoin. Sell Bitcoin. So long as it moves, it doesn't matter. Isn't that the sanest way to view this phenomenon
right now ? More when the situation stabilises.
DXY: Dollar Index About to turn back downDollar Index DXY Update
The dollar is still in a medium term downtrend and currently
making a small continuation pattern inside an inverted flag
before falling away again. It should halt here at 93.78 and at
very best as it reaches 93.99 and spikes into the upper
parallel controlling this little consolidation period for the
dollar. Gold becomes a buy at this point, looking to increase
long positions aggressively on a break below the lower small
parallel of the inverted flag. DXY should fall to 92.75 -92.62
range where will look to close out XAU longs, only going long
gold again once 92.62 breaks on DXY. Look to use the dollar
counter-rally as an opportunity to build gold longs, turning
aggressively bullish once that lower parallel gives way.
GODD XAUUSD How Gold Traders stay ahead with aid of DXY chartGold: XAUUSD 1.25% How DXY -0.25% is the gold 1.24% trader's best friend right now
So far gold 1.24% has behaved in the bear-mangling mode expected of it since the dollar broke
down below key support on DXY -0.25% at 94.26 (right hand chart) but it wasn't too smart to let
it go again at 1290. That rally on Friday was vicious for bears - the shape of price action
as gold 1.24% turned resistance at 1281 into support shows the market adjusting before gold 1.24%
powers 16 points north, a volte-face - which you would have been expecting if you've
been experienced enough, wise enough to run the two charts in tandem.
If you don't you're dealing with a blindfold over one eye...
The pin bars on the one hour chart here show strong rejection
at 1296.78 down to current levels at 1293 and a streak of
uncontested green...very rare for a space like that to remain
uncontested and it should flip back to 1288, and potentially to
1284 before it rallies again. On the other side of the street,
we can see that DXY -0.25% is flipping in a range beween 93.99 (the
high for the week was exactly 93.99 as forecast, giving a
precise point at which to sell gold 1.24% - with stops only triggered
in event that DXY -0.25% breaks above 94 and holds, in which case
DXY -0.25% is going up and Gold 1.24% is going back down. Just the best
duo/tandem trade there is in almost any market anywhere.
Use it or lose it. Probably the best companion
a gold 1.24% trader can ever have.
DXY: Dollar index 0.11%
Through all the noise of currency pairs and most commodity markets there
is a still, small, much neglected voice that can tell usually show you the
bigger picture/helicopter view of all that close combat fighting going
on below. Not always, but usually. DXY -0.25% , so far since the breakdown at
94.26, has been very helpful. It's flipping between 94 key resistance and
93.50 key near term support and this is what's causing such grief and
whipsaw in the price of gold 1.24% . Right now it's giving mixed near term signals...
believe it will break lower still eventually, but the chart is not confirming that
here....it's just double bottomed at 93.50...was Ok to bounce here for sure but
that was quite a big bounce - pins at top and botttom of move...just near
term a little confusing, at least to this writer anyway. But gold 1.24% is toppy -0.73% near
term and DXY -0.25% is showing a double bottom near term. If it can rally from here then it should push
back up to the 93.99 where it should meet profit takers. (Do same with gold 1.24% shorts
at that point). And only if DXY -0.25% can then manage to break above 94 and hold is
the tide turning back in favour of Dollar, at which point we look to short gold 1.24% again.
And on the other side, if at any point DXY -0.25% breaks 93.50 it enters a zone of uncertainty/whipsaw
between 93.50 and 93.35 where positions can sudddenly reverse - like quicksand
on a map this zone cannot be trusted - a zone to avoid if possible. However, if
at any point DXY -0.25% is driven below 93.5 for more than 2 hours it will become llikely that
support is eroding and it should start to fall away quite hard to 92.80-92.62 - and
thereby triggering aggressive gold 1.24% longs.
EURUSD: Continue to sell EUR rallies up to neckline of HandSEURUSD
The sell off from the neckline of the large Head and Shoulders
top formation above it hasn't been particularly aggressive so
far, but the littlle rally attempt today has been severely
knocked back. DXY hasn't quite finished unwinding the recent
overbought condition after a recent near 2% spurt (see
comment) and will likely move sideways to mildly down for a
few days yet, finding buyers again at 94.41 and forcing EUR a
little higher here, potentially back to the neck line itself at
1.1665 at the peak of DXY weakness but likely no higher - look
to sell EUR into any further strength from here towards the
neckline with a stop 40 pips above and/or when 1.1545 is
broken on downside looking for a staggered decline back to a
minimum downside target at 1.1241. It's still likely to bounce
the next time it touches the lower parallel and to recoil
sharply from any encounters with the upper parallel (at best)
until the target is achieved. Continue to sell EUR rallies.
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Trying to double bottom here at 7077Bitcoin: BTCUSD Update
Over the last 12 hours or so Bitcoin has formed a continuation
channel , dropping out of the lower parallel as London opened
and falling away, making a bounce from support line centred
around 7150 and then rallying up to the next listed old
support/new resistance line at 7250-7274 where it fell away
again under the heavy weight of all that structure recently
built directly above it. This is perfect price action for
plugged-in day-traders working with the smallest spreads -
which brings us back to Goldmans and Co. It would be so
educational to watch their Bitcoin desk for a day. It should be
a prize in a trading competition.
Right now, Bitcoin is retesting the lows at 7077 again, and
flipping between here and the next old support/new
resistance line on chart at 7150. we know that 7077 was the
original start point of yesterday's big rally - so Goldmans etc
will try to push it down below here to take out stops
underneath and then if it doesn't start to rally from 7077,
where they want it to, as per shape of this decline so far, and
price gets stuck under 7077, they'll start to unload again and
look to pick it up again at 6960-6930 key support.
So it's a speccy buy at 7077 but with a tight stop at 7050
because if it breaks here it will come back to major support
at 6960-6930 where it's another buy with stops under 6900.
So there are two points of interest for buyers today: 7077
with stop under 7050 or 6960-60930 with stop under 6900 if
the first shot fails. We were looking for a potential double
bottom to form...it should do it here or from the next line of
support at 6940 if it's going to do it at all.
At all costs, 6900 must hold up to all bear raids today - any
failure to do so would tip Bitcoin into serious bear territory,
signalling further intense selling pressure back to 6312 at
least, and potentially to 6165. A good short if we see it at any
point with stops above 6960.
Be Lucky
Bitcoin; BTCUSD Breaking to upside . worth following nowHaving totally blown most players clean out of the water with the biggest fake out in history, it's getting ready to go again -
if you are. .. it's come back to exactly the same levels that the Chinese were buying at last night...7077...
put a buy order in at 7090 with stop about 50 points lower and it may get filled later on if it comes back to
make a double bottom first before it kicks higher again. If it does and 7077 holds up
the first upside target is 7415, so about 300 points upside and 50 down, if struck and not stopped out. Otherwise, the safer
strategy is to wait until key resistance for the near term at 7430 -7340 has been overcome and then look to go long on next
pull back towards 7430 with a stop justunder 7390 for a 40 point loss before spreads if wrong, but 400 points potential
upside. In nearer term Bitcoin is trying to rally from the start of today's structure at 7077 and then flipping down again at
the 50% mark half way of the day's range. So it's now stuck in the weak half of the day's range, and, interestingly, is flipping
within the same support/resistance lines drawn only notionally about 6 days ago now and yet still exerting some real power
over short term swings if you've been watching this. Only once it can get above 7430-7440 should it calm down some and start to
regain it's equilbrium and be worth following, as above - otherwise we need to see a double bottom forming off 7077 on the
next retest to risk going long, as outlined above.The support lines have worked well so far, with a fall below any listed level
leading to a test of the next listed level pretty much wiithout a miss so far, which is plain weird, but untilthey they stop
working... as above, 7077 is the important support for the near term and into early tomorrow - if broken it falls to
6928-6920 which is absolutely critical support forthe more medium term (in Bitcoin time short/near term is 1 to 4 hours,
medium term is 1 to 2 days - it's a parallel universe, forgive pun) and so if last-gasp support at 6920-6900 gives way at
any point all long bets are off the table fast - it should lead to a collapse back to 6312 at least and quite possibly back to
6165 on a spike at which point althe structure shown on the chart will have been blown away and we can start to build
again. But that only happens if 6900 fails, at which point it becomes a compelling short.it's been a hell of a day and it
ain't done yet. There's 3 more hours to go- and Bitcoin's still up 190 points on the day so far.
Thought we had this thing in the freezer and every time it gets back out wielding a chainsaw: Jaws on crack with
Scarface's personality traits. That was Bitcoin today. And other days she can be so sweet natured. Back on the hunt.
EURUSD: Short Going well. Good spot to increase positions hereEURUSD
This swing trade on the short side from 1.1893 kiss on the parallel is going well, so far. A neat pattern here, with a head
and shoulders at the very top with an exact 200 pip downside target at 1.169 (met) and then a much larger, and more
threatening head and shoulders forming over the following weeks with a downside of 420 pips from the neckline
down to 1.124 minimum target, though this will take time to play out to consclusion. Right now EUR is testing old support, new
resistance at 1,158 and should reverse lower from here again (good spot to increase shorts) and ride it further down (stops for
new shorts need placing just above 1.1590). It should come back to the lower parallel quite soon and then make a good
bounce before failing again. More as move develops.
Brent Crude: UKOIL Time to close out longs and consider shortsBRENT CRUDE: UKOIL
Have closed out the long position finally as Brent touched the
upper parallel. It's the fourth strike and should come back
from here. Closed at 64.33 for 1833 pips profit on a trade that
carried 30 pips of risk from the outset, taking under 6 weeks
to achieve. Best win of year (apart from Bitcoin, obviously)
Wondering about shorting here, think it's the right thing to do
with stop above 64.70 in case Opec deliver a surprise for
once. It certainly was last time we tried it. If they do, Brent
could rally just above the high today, take out stops nearby
and then have a problem again...need to be careful, therefore.
But usually it pays to sell before the news...
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Stops need raising to protect weekend gainsBitcoin Update
Don't want this to turn over here now before China opens
but it could do without some buying power from 7460 level
to hold it up and then propel it through to a new high.
Want to protect gains by raising stop to just under 7450 on
at least half the position, if not all, according to risk profile.
Ideally it will trade sideways between high and 7460 and
then China could arrive to propel it substantially higher.
However it will need that power to take it higher from here.
So just in case it doesn't arrive, and it can only be deemed
50/50 chance in reality, we should protect the 400 points
made so far this weekend just in case the Chinese don't
come in to keep momentum going.
Also need to remain aware of just how high this has risen
and therefore just how low it could fall when buying power
wanes again. probably back to 6312, if not to 6165. If it
does we need to be flat and ready to buy again from lower
down. If 7450 gives way day traders will step in on short
side with stops above 7460 looking to drive prices lower still.
EURUSD: Continuation pattern prior to next decline still in playEURUSD It's plain to see that this this pattern is still one of continuation and eventually EUR should break the lower
parallel containing this week's minor corrective up-wave and come much lower still...so am not looking to buy dips, more
to sell the EUR rallies back to the upper parallel, looking for much lower values once the parallel gives way...
Whilst being written another pin bar of heavy selling has been created, only confirming that this is a sucker's rally. This time
we need to keep away from the EUR cookie jar. It's pretty much empty. The last hour of trading only adds weight to that
outlook. Look to sell from the smaller upper parallel if retested and then to sell again once the lower parallel is
broken on the downside. EUR has much further to fall over the coming weeks, as per recent comments.
IBEX Index: Last chance to get long for 1346 points updsideIBEX Index: IBEX 35
Going well so far after breaking above 10460-10470 overhead supply.
Minor resistance at 10600 but it shouldn't come back much
below 10550 now (stops under here by 20 pips or so) so giving
another chance to get long here with a small loss if wrong.
It should rally to 10761 once 10600 is broken through,
consolidate a little there and then rally further to 11168 - and
then after another bout of consolidation to 11576 and then,
last push to 11888 target.
About 1346 points upside and around 20 points downside from here.
Brent Crude Oil: UKOIL long stops raised to 59.94UKOIL: Crude Oil Brent Update
With WTI pushing up against clear resistance and Brent's latest
350 pip spurt looking in need of consolidation am raising the
stop here to just under 60 to lock in $14 of profit from the 46
entry level in late June.
If Brent falls below 60 it should come back to 59.18 at least,
and more likely to 58 before rallying again off the lower parallel.
GBPUSD: Upside target achieved for 140 pip win. Time to reverseGBPUSD Tuesday Update
Sterling has rallied to the centre of the near term upside
target which was 10 pips either side of 1.327 after an intraday
high in London at 1.3222 for a 140 pip win.
Longs should have been closed out and the entire position
reversed into EUR shorts with stops just 15 pips above today's
high for a small loss if wrong, as per comment below.
Gold: XAUUSD Short set up for Tuesday from 1281-3 for 20 pointsGold: XAUUSD Dollar weakness Monday has helped Gold to rally some. It should ideally rally a little further early Tuesday to 1281-1283 sell zone as DXY comes back to around 94 and then begins to rally strongly. Looking to short gold at 1281-1283 range if struck, with a stop above 1284, looking for a 20 point decline back to 1263-1260 at least if right and 3 points loss if wrong.
EUR/USD: Use Short term weakness Monday to get short EUR/USDEUR/USD Update for week 30.10.17
A perfect test of the upper parallel shown on last week's chart
created a fine entry point for Dollar longs on Thursday before
the Euro flew 278 pips lower creating a big bull-engulfing
red candle on the daily chart and busting below the neckline
of the head and shoulders top formation (shown on last week's
chart) on Friday. Two big bear moves in two days.
This price action only confirms that a significant swing into Dollar
strength is now gathering pace.
The breaking of the neckline creates a minimum medium term
downside target at 1.1242.
However in the very near term (Monday into early Tusday) the
Euro is a little oversold after that 278 pip two-day decline and
needs to consolidate those losses for a few hours before the
sell-off resumes.
Suggest using any Dollar weakness on Monday/early Tuesday
back towards the neckline area at 1.1648-1.1665 (with stops
just 15 pips above the upper end of this range) to increase
Dollar long positions, looking for a decline back to 1.1242
over the more medium term.
Any retest of the upper parallel should also be viewed as
another excellent selling opportunity (should the first stop at
1.1680 get broken} until the downside target is achieved.
USDJPY SHORTUSDJPY after the quick movements from bottom edge of range to top edge, backed to bottom edge and again moved upward to top, finally went upper but it stopped at last local high appointed in 6 october 2017. Price has backed from this level to the range. We are expecting that price could back to the bottom of range so we have opened short inside the range. Target is near the bottom of range. Stop is a few pips over last high. If price will go upward and will go higher than last peak, we will consider long with target near resistance zone at 114.30.
source based analysis NU M15price is completing a two stage correction into redzone above
look to enter short for expectation of test of lows and NSL
Price can only tell us everything it knows about source.
Source based analysis.
EURUSD 1H Short Trade to 800 smaPair was stretched away higher from the ma's and fell back to them and then passed through both. Now it is on it's way to the 800 sma. Watch for a retrace on the 15m chart for an entry point. A measured TP can be the distance above the ma's will equal the distance below the ma's. First TP is the measure TP @ 1.1814 and the second TP is the 800 sma @ 1.1746 but my TP will be 1.1755.
Short Juno: Target Price 37.21Arbitrage Band and novice band rsi lines are topped out. It has to have a mean reversion into the center of our novice band which is the bright blue line.
