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Bitcoin: Back to the highsBitcoin: Another test of the highs underway. This comment is already a little out of date - written and thought it was uploaded yesterday but some glitch and was out so never picked up on it until now. Doh. Anyway, the call has been good so far, so see no reason to pull it even if a little late now - it should hopefully complete the final part of the rally today. Suggest closing out longs at the top though and brave bears can short again from there but with a stop just 10 points above the highs.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
S and P and Vix seasonal trade approachingS and P 500 2 Trends 2 Trades Seasonal factors are beginning to show on S and P now. Over the last 20 years May to October periods have produced a correction of between 5% and 41% in every year without exception. The average loss per period was 14.9%. For the last 7 years if you'd bought the S and P on 16th October each year and held for 6.5 months until selling on the last trading day of April (before entering Vix positions in June for 3/4 months instead) and then buying again on October 16 the following year and repeating the process every year since 2010 - that the S and P would have returned 1289 points and 100.4% profit, rising from 1175 to 2390 (October 16 to end April 2017). Interestingly, had you remained fully invested in the S and P over this ENTIRE period the return would have been 1215 points, 74 points less - so being invested in the S and P over just 6.5 months in each 12 month period yields HIGHER returns than being being fully invested over the entire period. The stats are telling us something pretty clear here...smart money lightens off after earnings season, it sells into strength, to the...less smart - and then buys back off the same people come the Fall (no pun intended). There's a pattern here. It's time we all recognised it for what it is. And maybe join in. Here's a fairly simple but winning strategy for Summer/Fall... The other side of this trade was to buy the Vix each June and sell at 35% to 50% profit each time limit level is struck (limit levels initiated at same time as purchase, which is itself an order to buy around 11.3 on nearest dated futures right now, but will hopefully come a little lower still in June) - by playing this game each year over the last 6 years the Vix would have returned a minimum of 50% on 6 out of 6 of those years - so 300% minimun return and the astonishing figure of 1132% return on 6 Vix trades when compounded. Rather better than the flat returns offered by the S and P over the corresponding period. If you get this, consider buying Vix futures (nearest dated) in June, seasonal low, for 3/4 months and don't be scared of it - only be scared of the Vix from November to May...from June to October it's your friend - if you can treat it like a schizophrenic and know when it's likely to go wild you'll get to like it more and stop running scared of it, that's the truth. Downside is 10%, maybe 15% max from 11.3 on nearest dated Vix futures, but wait until June/July, as probability says that's the best month to go long Vix - what other 'investment' can you make where the downside risk is close to certain (as certain as you can be in any investment, at least), that cannot ever go trade to zero, and has beautiful seasonality just about to come into play? The other big secret to trading the Vix is not to bother chasing those highs. Only a fool would even try. Lower your expectations and you'll get a near-certain result. Just be happy with between 35% and 50% returns over 3-4 months and this trade will always work out (gotta factor in 3 to 4 months roll-overs costing 0.4 to 0.5% each time but that's fine. You EXPECT that and you cover your backside with enough margin to handle anything up to 15% downside in the very near term). And then you wait for human nature to revert to mean. Not complicated unless you figure human nature changed all of a sudden. Then this strategy is doomed. But since human nature in investment hasn't changed one jot since we first crawled out of the swamp it seems unlikely to change anytime soon. Your choice. Has human nature changed? If yes, stay away from the Vix. None of this means that the S and P HAS to decline from here, just that probability says that this index struggles over the Summer and usually falls in October or November and has a 50% chance of making an interim low in August over the last 6 years. In the last 6 years the Vix made it's annual low in June once, in July 3 times, in August once and September once.
FX:SPX500Long
by sumastardon
Potential Long Set Up On NZD/USD NZD/USD has been down trending since January and it finally reached a significant event area which previously acted as a support with a one leg touch. The market is playing the perfect role for a retracement, we've had strong momentum outburst on the sell direction the past couple of days and that's most likely constitutions pushing the market down to catch all the amateur traders out once it reaches this significant event area, where all the pros start buying the market. IMPORTANT: MAKE SURE YOU RISK MANAGEMENT IS AT A GOOD LEVEL, DO NOT RISK MORE THAN 3% OF YOUR TRADING ACCOUNT PER TRADE AND THAT'S ONLY ON A HIGH PROBABILITY TRADE!
Long
by Abdul_Light
USDCAD USDCAD pair ended ON Friday trading with clear negativity to attack 1.2985 level, as the price found difficulty to surpass the EMA50, which hints the stop of the correctional bullish wave that started from the previously recorded low at 1.2459, to return to resume its main bearish track again. I expect the domination of the bearish trend in the upcoming sessions, and the main target is represented by visiting the above mentioned low, taking into consideration that breaching 1.2985 followed by 1.3020 levels will reactivate the correctional bullish scenario that its next target located at 1.3310. Expected trading range for today is between 1.2860 support and 1.3100 resistance. Expected trend for today: Bearish
by FxRanger