$BTC tops correlates to $DXY bottoms?Dollar strength bottoms historically marked the tops of the Bitcoin bullrun.
If the dollar is used to buy Bitcoin, then if the dollar loses strength, more dollars are needed to buy Bitcoin, right?
Then if, in the future the dollar crashes hard, can Bitcoin make a super bullish rally?
TOP-6
📈Mastering Stock Selection:A Journey to Long-Term Wealth💰Part1Interested in selecting high-quality stocks and growing your wealth through long-term investing? Today, I'll guide you through effective stock selection methods, including the top-bottom and bottom-top approaches. Remember, as Warren Buffett famously said, "The stock market is designed to transfer money from the active to the patient." 💼📈
Let's start with the top-bottom approach. First, you choose an economy, such as Indian, US, or UK. Next, select a sector within that economy, like Financial Services, IT, or Pharma. From there, narrow down to an industry within the sector, such as AI, Clean-technology, or Hardware. Finally, choose a company within the industry. Don't worry if it seems complex – I'll provide examples and guidance throughout. 💡🔍
Conversely, the bottom-top approach flips this order. We start by selecting a company, then move up to its industry, sector, and finally, the economy. 💼🔄
Let's put theory into practice with the top-bottom approach: (a random example)
1. Choose India as the economy.
2.Select the IT sector for its promising future.
3. Opt for AI as the industry due to its potential.
4. Select Infosys as a company.
Now, it's your turn! Share examples of top-bottom or bottom-top approaches in the comments for practice. 💬💡
In the upcoming discussions, we'll delve into the fundamentals of sector, industry, and company analysis. Don't worry—I'll explain everything from market cap and cash flow to return on equity (ROE). 📊✨
Target of likes (boosts): 25+ (if we achieve our target than I will make Part 2) 🎯🚀
Follow for more such ideas & learning content! 🔍
Bitcoin Corrective Wave MetricsAnalysis of long-term corrective waves from ATH's of different historic periods
Facts:
The drop of 93.75% back in 2011 was the biggest correction of all time.
With time the corrections after new established ATH's got gradually smaller.
I'll use fibonacci retracement to measure those heavy drops as ATH - 1 and bottom as 0 to document how measurements of historic drops could define levels of forthcoming waves.
-93.75% capture:
2.272 made next ATH of 2013
1.618 defined the 2015 bottom
Similarly, -86.96% fib measurement defined:
Next ATH of 2017 at between 2.272 and 2.414
Level of 1.414 called the bottom
-84.22% drop:
This time 1.618 called ATH of 2021
Level between 1 and 0.786 made 2022 bottom
Logistic curve partially explains why forthcoming bottoms got close to the previous ATHs
The question is, could that be a sign of already saturated market which would cause btc to sidetrend making a long-term diamond pattern. Despite of Bitcoin being deflationary asset, the rate of growth has been slowing down, as the % of bullrun waves got smaller.
Knowing about positive correlation BTC and SP500, we can deduce that BTC wouldn't have grown if not for SP500. This dependence would be a venerability for Bitcoin, if AMEX:SPY drops in the nearest future.
Nevertheless, many authors in TradingView are optimistic about further growth. The fact that current price still holds at previous ATH levels, could indicate that crowd could be actually right.
So to estimate where it would stop, I'll use most frequent fib levels which defined both next bottoms and ATH's.
Levels are: 1.272, 1.414, 1.618 and 2.272
🔥 Bitcoin: The Most Accurate Cycle Top Forecast To Date! 🚨Preface
This analysis is based on historical price action. Since BTC only had a couple of cycles before, the data presented is based on just a few observations. Furthermore, this analysis will use calculations based on a mathematical model based on these few observations.
TLDR/Summary at the bottom.
Goal of this analysis
In this analysis I'm going to take an attempt at making an educated guesss at when Bitcoin will top, and around which value it will top. With the information at hand, I'm reasonably certain that this is one of the best forecasts currently on the market.
Indicators and Assumptions
The first indicator on the chart is the Bitcoin Logarithmic Bands indicator, a personally made indicator which tries to calculate a Bitcoin top during a certain time frame by calculating a bottom and top band within BTC will top. More information below:
The second indicator (or better said, assumption) that we use is the fact that Bitcoin has previously always topped between 34 - 47 weeks AFTER closing a weekly candle above the previous all-time high. I came to this conclusion after making this analysis below:
Making the calculation
34 weeks after the 4th of March = 28th of October.
47 weeks after the 4th of March = 27th January.
If the above will remain true for this cycle, we can expect Bitcoin to top between October 28th 2024 and 27th of January 2025.
Now that we know the dates, we can also easily calculate the values. Naturally, we assume that the Bitcoin Logarithmic bands indicator will hold.
(rounded for readability)
28-10-2024 lower band: 135.000$
28-10-2024 top band: 195.000$
27-01-2025 lower band: 144.000$
27-01-2025 top band: 208.000$
Summary
Based on the "New ATH to Top" model and the "Bitcoin Logarithmic Bands" model, we calculated that Bitcoin will top between 28-10-2024 and 27-01-2025, with a value between 135.000$ and 208.000$.
Enjoy this analysis? Leave a like and a comment 🙏
Stock market peaks in July 2024, followed by an epic crash?I have made some calculations regarding potential stock market development in the S&P500 in the coming months. There is of course no guarantee that it will turn out exactly like this, but there are very interesting mathematical correlations in an optimal scenario.
Since January 2018, the price has been inside an ascending channel with a couple of hits at both the bottom and the top of the channel and is on the way up.
I have then measured the time and height from the covid low in March 2020 to the next peak in late 2021 and then made an exact similar measurement from the low in October 2022 to a possible future peak.
Then I tried to find Fibonacci levels that coincide with the tops and bottoms of the chart. It can be tricky where there is no data but there are methods to resort to. If you measure from the bottom after the financial crisis in 2009 and to the highest before the covid rebound in 2020 (3397), you see that this ends up at the 50% level in this calculation. If you instead do a Fibonacci Extension between these levels, you end up at the same potential top level in the chart (double the distance). I have chosen to leave this out of the diagram to try and keep it as clean as possible.
The really interesting thing is that all these measurements converge at exactly the same level and time. This occurs in July 2024 at ≈6121.
Historically, peaks in the market usually occur around the same time that interest rates start to fall. According to the forecasts, it currently looks like it could happen in June this year.
If all this were to occur, we can note that the rise from October 2022 will then be 75%.
Should there then be a really big stock market crash and we look at the symmetry, i.e. 75%, we see that an equally large percentage decline would take us exactly to the levels at the double peak in the dotcom bubble in 2000 and the peak before the financial crisis in 2007.
This is therefore a calculation based on an optimal scenario, and such scenarios unfortunately rarely occur. But it's worth keeping in mind in case the market takes us there anyway.
fomo buying chart pattern gold price made triple bottom at 1620 since then it is rising but crowd is now bullish at top at $2100 price level
if buy the rumor sell the news is real then hedge funds already front running rate cut by fed
same like at bottom $1620 in september 2022
👉 nobody talking where gold will be 18 months from now
👉 what will be next macro theme for gold 18 months from now
💡 in september 2025 we will be selling gold or buying gold
💡in september 2025 fed will be creating inflation or deflation
BTC pain is next Alright, listen up, folks. I know things might seem rocky right now in the world of BTC, but let me tell you something – this is not the time to panic. Sure, there might be a correction looming on the horizon, but that doesn't mean it's the end of the world. In fact, it's far from it.
Think about it. The big boys, the whales, they've been in this game for a while. They know how to navigate these waters, and they're already sitting pretty with their profits, probably even leveraging their positions. But what about us? Are we going to let fear dictate our actions?
No way. This is our time to shine. This is our opportunity to show resilience, to show strength, to show that we're not going to be shaken by a little turbulence in the market. Remember why you got into this game in the first place. Remember the potential, the excitement, the thrill of being part of something revolutionary.
So, I urge you, don't succumb to panic selling. Don't let fear cloud your judgment. Instead, stay calm, stay focused, and stay determined. This is just a bump in the road, a test of our resolve. And I have no doubt that we will come out of this stronger than ever before.
Believe in yourselves, believe in the power of BTC, and together, we will weather this storm and emerge victorious. Let's show the world what we're made of. Let's hodl strong!
Market is growing reminiscent of Autumn 2021A few weeks ago, we noted that the mania in the cryptocurrency market seemed to reach levels coinciding with the summer of 2021. Nevertheless, as Bitcoin’s price increases, the narrative about the “complacent plateau” and the never-ending rally grows stronger as well, making the current time reminiscent of late 2021. As a result of the massive rally, investors in stocks and crypto alike seem to have become numb to potential risks markets face in 2024. It is becoming increasingly apparent that there will be no six rate cuts this year with the accelerating inflation in the United States. The FED will have to keep monetary conditions tight for somewhat longer than many investors have initially anticipated (or until something breaks). By doing so, the FED will further slow down the economy and increase the chances of an economic accident (especially as the lagging effects of previous hikes do not seem to show up yet on the surface). Since such an accident would negatively affect the stock market’s performance, it would also negatively affect Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies (considering the strong positive correlation between the two). Bitcoin continues to behave much like a risk asset, which only increases the odds of a significant decline in the case of a general stock market selloff. With that said, we are growing increasingly nervous about the overall situation in the market and think that Bitcoin might be approaching a top before a major trend reversal.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 portrays daily and weekly graphs of BTCUSD. Yellow arrows show slight similarities in the price structures between these two charts (of course, similarities are subjective and debatable).
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bullish
Weekly time frame = Bullish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of multiple indicators.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
GBP/JPY ↘️ Short Trade setup ↘️Hello Everyone 🙋🏽♂️
Double Top
💲 Entry Point : 185.955
✔️ Tp 185.345
🔴 SL 186.203
We are not responsible of any losses for anyone, our trades are profitable more for long terms and we take losses as everyone,
manage your lot size as well and your SL and TP and my opinion is 0.01 lot for each 500 $.
Don't forget to hit the like bottom and write a comment to support us.
Follow us for more 🙋🏻♂️
Best Regard / EMA Trading .
Disclaimer:
----------------
It's not a financial advise, As everyone we take losses sometime but for long term trading we are profitable traders, so manage your account well with SL and TP and your lot size to keep your account safe and stay in the market
Bitcoin's next cycle top REVEALEDAs you can see from the chart, if you measure how many days before a halving, did the cycle low occur.
For ex, in November 2012's halving, ~373 days before btc found a cycle low, projected into the future, ~373 days after the halving, a cycle top is in.
Same thing with 2016's halving.
Cycle low ~540 days before the halving, projected into the future ~540 days after the halving, we have a cycle top ($20k).
Yet again, with 2020's halving, btc found a low around 513 days before the halving, projected into the future, it took 513 days for a cycle top to be in.
Now in 2024's halving. Btc found a cycle low ~525 days before the 2024 halving ($15k)..Projected into the future ~525 days after the halving we should get a cycle top in Sept 2025.
Will history repeat itself yet again?Check back with this chart in 2025 :)
Good luck
Far Side of the MoonTarget 4800 nearly there in AH trade.
Looking back, a long EW for 1k pips from 3800 is apparent.
Summer rally was 3rd wave, this is the 5th.
On this chart, target the Dark Side of the Moon.
Wish you were here!
All bets off after that.
Close your longs soon folks. Then get out your Floyd vinyls and do the timewarp again.
Triple Witching Friday, RSI madly overbought, ATH.
Gonna get choppy. Might get a visit from the Grinch.
Do not expect a massive dump right away. Tops will chop and grind, pump-dump-pump-dump. it will not be a single point, rather a plateau. Good time to take a break from the madness.
Correction in the New Year. Then we shall see. Happy Holidays!
SOL/USD ↘️ Short Trade Setup ↘️Hello Everyone 🙋🏽♂️
Double Top Trade
🟠 EP 65.65
🔴 SL 68.48
🟢 TP1 62.71 ⚠️( Close 33% of the trade and Set the SL on EP )⚠️
🟢 TP2 59.91 ⚠️ ( Close 33% of the trade )⚠️
🟢 TP3 57.12 🔥 ( Final result)🔥
We are not responsible of any losses for anyone, our trades are profitable more for long terms and we take losses as everyone,
manage your lot size as well and your SL and TP and my opinion is 0.01 lot for each 500 $.
Don't forget to hit the like bottom and write a comment to support us.
Follow us for more 🙋🏻♂️
Best Regard / EMA Trading .
Disclaimer:
----------------
It's not a financial advise, As everyone we take losses sometime but for long term trading we are profitable traders, so manage your account well with SL and TP and your lot size to keep your account safe and stay in the market
Exploring Fibonacci Magic Levels in Bitcoin 💹📈After delving into technical analysis in Bitcoin, " Fibonacci Magic Levels " were created. 📉🔬
It is based on the continuity of various Fibonacci levels, ranging from a smaller scale to well-known levels.
By precisely calibrating various Fibonacci retracement and extension levels in our Fibonacci Channel, we have identified highly relevant patterns in Bitcoin price behavior. 📊✨
These "magical levels" seem to strongly influence support and resistance areas, contributing to strategic trading and investment decisions. 📈📉
US 10 Year Treasury Bonds - TOP Call Coming! (For now) $TNXWhat Major Event will occur to force thirst for US and G20 Treasury Bonds? It's happening soon. I wish I had a crystal ball to say what will cause it, but it'll happen. We're almost there IMO 5.19-5.25% topline target - then I hope in whatever this Market or world event will force yields to go back down to 3.19-3.25% Before eventually continuing back up in the next major World event to create Inflation AKA Wave 2 Inflation
VRA IS THIS THE COIN THAT WILL HIT 1500% to $0,10 2023
Thank you for reading our update. Please bear in mind that this does not constitute trading advice.
VRA is in a place that can become a historical bottom.
Is VRA one of the dormant giants that could bolster the market capitalization in the near future? Can this coin with its maximum supply be the one to demonstrate a 1500% increase in 2023... but what is the rationale behind this potential surge?
We understand that there are no guarantees in the volatile world of trading. We always assess various possibilities, as accurately predicting the right percentage is a challenging endeavor.
The reason for choosing this coin .. The interest of exchanges follows in data
And second the wallet development shares. The max supply and the technical view.
Further high possibilities with the market cap of now.
🔥 My BEST-CASE Scenario For Bitcoin's 2025 TopOver the last two bull-runs, Bitcoin has been trading in a relatively predictable pattern. In this analysis I want to take a closer look at this pattern and discuss my BEST-CASE scenario for the next bull-run.
* BTC has been trading within the bullish channel Since July 2017 (more than 6 years). Every time the support was touched it produced a local low, every time the resistance was touched it produced a local top.
* Bitcoin topped (green) between 74 and 78 weeks after the halving (yellow) took place.
Knowing this, we can predict the next Bitcoin top with relative certainty. Naturally, assuming that this pattern will continue to hold.
* The next BTC top will be somewhere between 15 Sept 2025 and 13 Oct 2025, 74 and 78 weeks after the next halving.
* The next BTC top will touch the top resistance of the channel somewhere between 300,000 and 320,000.
An argument can be made that Bitcoin is experiencing diminishing returns over the years, invalidating this analysis. However, the move from (roughly) 3k > 69k is bigger than the move from 15.5k > 320k. The returns are not diminishing as fast as before, but it's still diminished.
Personally, I don't think this outcome is likely. Market conditions have deteriorated significantly with rising interest rates and inflation. Hence I call this my "best-case" scenario. I'd be surprised if the next bull-run will bring us above 150k, but time will tell.
Where and when do you think Bitcoin will top? Share your analyses below.🙏