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TOP-6

Major top on the bund measures to 155.37After one of the most hawkish meetings in quite a long time from the ECB where they outlined a faster pace of taper and dropped their language regarding rate cuts, we thought that we would take another look at the Bund chart. We are taking a look at the long-term Monthly chart of the Bund continuation contract and we can clearly identify a top on the chart (looks more like a descending triangle to my discerning eye). Chart patterns are fantastic, when you identify them properly of course!! For a valid top pattern this should appear at the end of a protracted bull market. They offer a long-term downside target (you use the width of the top to measure lower), this offers a downside measured target to 155.37 (the top extends from 167.52 to 179.67) and this coincides quite well with the 156.22 2018 low. Please note that this is the MINIMUM downside target. I also use the duration of patterns to give me some idea of time frame for when that downside target is likely to get hit. The top built from August 2019 to February 2022 i.e 2 ½ years, and targets are usually met in half that time – say 15 months. Mind you I have noticed over the years that the targets from tops tend to get hit faster, so I think under 12 months. We have two meetings next week - the Fed and the BOE and both are expected to raise interest rates by 25 bps, and with inflation where it is, further weakness looks likely. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
EUREX:FGBL1!Short
by The_STA
SPX: Is it just another Dead Cat Bounce? Let's see...Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how SPX is doing today! We broke the previous resistance at 4,388, however, today’s first candlestick is not one of the best. It seems we have a small top sign, and the index must react very quickly in order to avoid another correction. This weakness was expected by us, and I’ll explain why when we study the daily chart. If it drops, we have the 21 ema as our first support, and the 38.2% retracement. If the index loses the 38.2% it might correct more, probably to the 61.8% retracement. In the daily chart, we see why the index is struggling right now: It just hit its 21 ema. We’ve been expecting this movement since the markets crashed, thanks to the war, when almost no one believed in any bullish reaction. This is why we use TA, to help us to understand the market beyond our natural emotions. So far, the index is struggling at the 21 ema in the daily chart, but the way it closes today might give us a clue about what’s next for us. If it does a bearish candlestick pattern, closing under the 21 ema, this would be a warning sign. Now the SPX is in one of its moments when it must give us a clear reaction. Is the last bullish leg the beginning of a reversal or just another Dead Cat Bounce? We’ll have our answers soon. I’ll keep you guys updated, so remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses.
SP:SPX
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
2
BTC Short TermOn H4 chart BTC is bearish/oversold in the MACD, RSI and Stoch RSI. I expect BTC to consolidate or make a small correction to the FVG zone. This will open up possibility for fresh entries and both alts if we stabilize or correct here. BTC has now become a strong asset during the Ukraine/Russia crisis, BTC also looks stronger than fiat and jump in BTC price and ''MCAP of stable coins'' indicate that investors are buying these assets. 3 of the top 11 coins are stable coins (usdt, busd and usdc)
by sebastianjohansen
War is no good for stocksI wrote this last month: ……From a technical perspective, we are increasingly of the opinion that the market has topped longer term, and this is the start of a more significant sell-off. Why do we think that? 1. There is a clear top pattern between approx. 4500-4800 ish, which to our practiced eye looks like a head and shoulders reversal pattern (yes, its messy but it is a top). These are well documented reversal patterns that come at the end of an extensive bull move. 2. We no longer meet the definition of an up move according to Dow Theory (which calls for higher reaction highs and higher reaction lows). 3. There was a large divergence on both the weekly and monthly RSI on the move to a new high. This reflects a significant loss of upside momentum longer term. This occurs when the market makes a new high and the indicator does not. 4. We have sell signals on the daily and weekly DMI signal (directional movement index). These occur when the red line breaks above the blue line on the indicator. 5. We have broken below the 200-day ma for the first time since June 2020. …. I can now add, we are again attacking the 55-week ma at 4346 and the top of the cloud on the weekly chart is 4348. Base of the cloud is nearer to 3875…the 200-week ma is down at 3379. We also have what I like to refer to as a confirmed sell signal on the DMI indicator – this happens when the orange line (-VE) goes above the previous peaks. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
SP:SPXShort
by The_STA
2
Ethereum continues to face massive resistance cluster near $3,30Ethereum price managed to push through a crucial hurdle and flip into a support floor after the second attempt. A resurgence of buying pressure will likely propel ETH to a new local top. Ethereum price needs bullish momentum Ethereum price sliced through the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on February 9 but failed to sustain this uptrend, leading to a correction. The bulls came together during this pullback and bounced off the $2,823 support level, triggering a 12% ascent. This move set a swing high at $3,187.
EASYMARKETS:ETHUSDLong
by Laurie65456
BTC 'Top Bottom' Indicator AreasStarting from 1 June 2015, there have been 20 'sell' signals on the Top Bottom indicator (not including the most recent signal). Fifteen out of 20 periods from 'sell' to 'buy' signals represent negative price changes. Here, these periods are defined as the daily high on the day of the 'sell' signal to the daily low on the day prior to the 'buy' signal. The descriptive statistics of these periods are below. No. Days: Range = 5 to 151 Median = 33.5 M = 44.6, SD = 35.1 Per Cent Change: Range = -45.36 to 10.12 Median = -7.21 M = -11.06, SD = 15.68 Currently, we are on Day 66 since the latest 'sell' signal. The three grey boxes run from Days 45-80-115-150. Statistically, there is a good chance the current period should end within two weeks and an even greater chance that it ends by mid-March. The daily low on the final day of the current period should fall within these ranges. The numbered candles are merely examples.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by bjames123
Broadening Formation & Wedge – Indices – EU50 - Daily - ShortCAPITALCOM:EU50 Looking at the upward trend from March 2020, we can see that you will get various readings depending on where you place your trend line. Due to this and not specifically knowing if the stock is in a downtrend, I placed my trendline to match the newest low. This is because, in an uptrend, this could be the retracement followed by a move higher, and this has been known to happen in indices. Remember that indices are a collection of top-performing companies, so the price typically goes up. Based on this, now I make my analysis. I can comfortably say that if it is pushed past this new low, the uptrend is probably over. You can see the ascending broadening formation that begins in April 2021 and move, creating new higher highs till January 2022, where the price starts to lose its momentum. It subsequently creates a wedge with a series of lower highs but is still supported by the bottom support level, which is proving difficult to push past. If you take note of the volume for each valley that hits this support level, you will see that it is above average. This happens every time the price moves there. This means that the support level in this area is a potent one. Not to mention if we look at the price here, you will find it sitting at a tidy round number (4000 EUR). From this, we can assume that buys have bought in here and are determined not to let price breakthrough. However, if we look at the tightening wedge, along with the series of lower highs, the partial decline, and the volume just days prior signaling all the selling pressure, we can perhaps be inclined to think that a decline in price is on the way. Moreover, the wedge has formed what looks like a double top, but we will have to wait for the price to break the 4000 (Euro) mark in order for it to be confirmed. I would suspect that if the price drops and closes below 4000, then there would be a potential short position. You might think that the previous valleys with their large volume would be a barrier to the short move if it does break, but I think they are too close within the price reach to be of any significance. You could perhaps look at the first valley as your profit target. That would be approximately at a price 3853. If you jump in at 4000 or just below as I suggest, you are looking at a target of 5 to 1. Remember that your stop would be just above 4000. This is because in the event that this is just a retracement, you would want to be out of the position immediately. You could even tighten up your stop to increase your risk to reward, but I would wait to see what the indices does before taking this strategy.
CAPITALCOM:EU50Short
by DevlonJarrodHorne
Yep...it still looks like a top to me..I discussed my view on January 25th about the S+P being a potential top and identified a head and shoulders top. I said the following: 'If we are correct in our assumption that the market has topped, we may see a ‘return to point of break out’, where the market rallies back to the ‘neckline’ of the head and shoulders top. These reactions are frequently seen and in this particular case the rally should fail somewhere around the 4600 zone.' So this has now been seen, it looks to me like that the rebound is running out of steam around 4600 ....and we are looking for failure....this is pretty classic charting so far. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
SP:SPXShort
by The_STA
TEXTBOOK Ending Expanding DiagonalDino juice looking like a page out of an Elliot Wave Theory textbook. All rules have been illustrated to be present and not broken. This is probably the most extensive analysis I've done so I would love to hear any feedback. Always do your own due diligence. Supposedly these patterns are "extremely rare".. Ending expanding diagonal Rules (these are “hard” rules; they cannot be broken) A diagonal triangle always subdivides into five waves. An ending diagonal always appears as wave 5 of an impulse or wave C of a zigzag or flat. Waves 1, 2,3, 4 and 5 of an ending diagonal always subdivide into zigzags. In the expanding variety, wave 3 is always longer than wave 1, wave 4 is always longer than wave 2, and wave 5 is always longer than wave 3. In the expanding variety, wave 5 always ends beyond the end of wave 3. Guidelines (guidelines can be broken but it’s rare that they are) Within an impulse, wave 5 is unlikely to be a diagonal triangle if wave 3 is not extended. In the expanding variety, wave 5 usually ends slightly before reaching a line that connects the ends of waves 1 and 3. source: worldcyclesinstitute.com
TVC:USOILShort
by theroadtoprofit
4