Santam triangle broken above - Looks good to R406.22Symmetrical Triangle has formed on Santam and it looks like the uptrend wants to continue.
We have a strong high Probability Trade lineup with the Price>20 and 200MA'
First target at R406.22
Top40
#J200 - Lots of divergency - warning of a short term rally?3 new lows in price, not confirmed by higher lows in RSI.. Is this warning of a rally to come in the JSE's top40 index?
History repeating with the Bear Market Rally or not?Top 40 is once again testing our patience...
THe price broke below the M Formation, just to go back up to test an important downtrend level.
We've seen this before with the strong buying price action, before the crash.
So will history repeat itself?
We will only know after the next two or three days.
The price needs to either break up and trick everyone.
Or touch the downtrend and come back down.
The strongest sign we have of downside is lagging indicators
200>21>7... That's the only thing that brings clarity to the markets...
Where to NEXT with the JSE ALSI 40? I hope UP!Do you want the JSE ALSI 40 to fall where we profit from all the shorts.
Do we want the JSE ALSI 40 to rise, where we can profit from the longs.
I'll tell you what I want.
I always want the JSE ALSI 40 to rally.
I don't mind being stopped out on shorts.
I don't care about the shorts anyway.
And the reason is because I am optimistic with South Africa.
I want the companies to do well and I want to celebrate their success rather than downfall.
So, no matter what the situation is I always want the JSE ALSI to rally.
Take a look at the chart now...
We see a change in the pattern. Since the last higher low.
We have extended the Symmetrical Triangle.
So in a way, it's within the formation and the price is likely to head up...
On the other hand, if it breaks below it'll be a reversal pattern and the price will likely continue down.
Let's hope for the prior analysis as I'm an optimist.
JSE Top 40 IndexWith Foreign Equites taking a beating, our Local market has been doing very well, I personally feel we could see profit taking from these levels. we could see a flight to safety into SA bonds here.
JSE showing downside before the boost up Inverse Cup and Handle has formed. We are just waiting for the break.
The pattern is showing a slight correction before further upside.
On the left is a larger W Formation which is showing medium term upside but for now, we'll take advantage of the short.
21>7 - Bearish
Target to 200MA
62,705
Trade well, live free.
Timon Rossolimos
MATI Trader
JSE Top40JSE:J200 is back at the recent lows (58.6K-ish). Most stocks are weak, what are the odds that the Top40 can bounce here? Add the middle of nowhere low near 56K. Rough market.
JSE:J200 Looking WeakAs indicated in the post linked below I a break of the trendline could start the markdown. We have now seen this break and a backup to the breakout level. The break occurred on some volume and the attempt to recover could not break the 50Day SMA and could not stay above 60000. This looks very weak and this could be the start of a markdown.
JSE:J200 Effort Without ResponseThe Top40 has been on the rise since the covid lows, however, we can now see some cracks and we could be in for a correction back to 53000 for the rest of the year. My reasoning is as follows:
- The buying climax (BC) of the latest trading range could not make it back to the overbought line showing a lack of interest.
- Divergence on the RSI leading into the BC shows the interest to push higher is gone.
- The effort (increase in volume) with each attempt to push higher could not make higher highs.
Based on this it looks like that a break of the trendline could open the path for a drop back to 53000
JSE:SATRIX FINI Don't Get Swept Up in the ExcitementLast week the JSE Financials were on the move but before jumping on the train a word of caution. If one looks back to 2015 we see a long distribution range that formed with investors getting out of South African financial stocks. The recent rise on the back of the covid drop is likely to only be a backup to this distribution range and not longer-term interest in the financials. Using SATRIX Fini as a proxy we see the volume has been declining since the upthrust (UT) that took place at the end of 2017 / beginning of 2018 highlighting the lack of interest. The relative strength to the Top40 is also declining. We are now spiking into the an area of previous high volume so it is rather time to watch and see what the reaction will be than just jumping in.
JSE:J200 Top 40 Consolidation at Start of FebruaryThe JSE has had a good run showing some signs of strength (SoS). After a spring and markup, we tested 60000. Buying interest is lower than November/December which could indicate some consolidation in the short term. This could result in a backup with a set of the breakout level at about 54000. Will watch how this develops.
JSE Potentially Starting to Outperform the S&P500?After the recovery from the Covid lows, the JSE has been underperforming the S&P500. However, since the start of the year, the JSE has been outperforming it. However, the low holiday volume should be taken into account. However, the start of the year could indicate where the JSE is at.
JSE:200 JSE Still Getting WeakerI have not posted for some time but am looking to post more regularly again. After the covid shock, we have basically been trading in a range. Using a Wyckoff view this is expected after a selling climax. The question is now where are we in the trading range and are we seeing a redistribution or accumulation? Starting off with a comparison of the Top 40 against the S&P500 we see that the JSE has relatively been in a downward trend since 2016. However, the resources sector has been in an uptrend relative to the rest of the Top 40. After the covid drop resources have also recovered well. The financial sector on the other hand has not seen any rebound effect and remains at the low levels after the drop. So following strength, it is wise to focus on the resources sector when looking for a recovery.
Glencore on its way up - may find resistanceJSE:GLN is looking good for a long position on our momentum strategy, but may find some resistance at around the 4000 level. If it breaks through this level, we could see it move all the way up to 4300.
VTIQ merger to become NKLA!!!www.tradingview.com
VectoIQ Acquisition Corp. Common Stock, also called VectoIQ, is a blank check company formed for the purpose of effecting a merger, share exchange, asset acquisition, stock purchase, recapitalization, reorganization, or similar business combination with one or more businesses. It intends to focus on searching for prospective target businesses to acquire.
This is a very popular pick up and has been a confirm on the rumors that VTIQ will become the public IPO of NKLA ( Nikola ) NASDAQ:TSLA only Competitor in the market. They will be continuing to climb until June 3rd when they switch the IPO over to NKLA and your shares will be transferred over the price it is at when they switch.
My suggestion is to continuously roll up your contracts in case of reverse stock split even though i'm waiting back to hear if this is going back to happen. Looks to gain about 25- 32% everyday!
- GC MAGIC OVERLAY is starting to split even more on the 1 hr time frame signaling very high momentum.
- STOCASTIC RSI is signaling over sold but that's stating the obvious.
- MACD has had 2 small red candles in 3 days.
- % TARGET to be estimated to hit around the $36+ strike might take a dip for a good entry around the current R4 support line
TTWO (earnings play long call looking at new highs)NASDAQ:TTWO Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. engages in the development, publishing, and marketing of interactive software games. Its products are designed for console systems, handheld gaming systems, and personal computers including smart phones and tablets; and are delivered through physical retail, digital download, online platforms, and cloud streaming services. It operates through the following geographical segments: United States, Europe, Asia Pacific, and Canada and Latin America.
GTA, RED DEAD REDEMPTION, 2K Are some of the popular games they have developed.
Look for a good entry point after some of this weeks news like china trade or Powell speaking should shake off some people hanging on.
MOKU cloud - Signaling bullish momentum and continuing to open up.
Stochastic RSI - Currently above 100ma looking to test the 50 below for a coil up into earnings and long.
GC MAGIC OVERLAY - Flipped to bullish momentum last week.
Resistance - Heavy resistance in their history shows $132 being their breaking point. Looking to retest this week and make a new high.
Expected move - 9.8%
Watch for the re-test for an entry point than play the run up and long into earnings call.
LIKE if you find useful. Thanks
JSE:J200 Top40 Automatic RallyAfter the distribution and markdown (discussed in previous posts), we have had a selling climax (SC). This is noted by the high volume and capitulation of the market. Now we are seeing an automatic rally (AR) from the SC lows. This should back up (BU) to the previous distribution trading range. Once this is done we could see a trading range form (fluctuating within the bounds of the SC and AR) which we then can evaluate to determine if it is a redistribution or accumulation trading range. A number of stocks are rallying and we will watch for the retest to go short to test the SC lows.
JSE:J200 Top40 Wyckoff Distribution and MarkdownInstitutional investors which include foreign investors have bee distributing the JSE stocks since 2015 (see posts below for further analysis). Following a Wyckoff approach to the markets an upsloping distribution range was formed and now the markdown has started. Price has broken the upsloping stride and the lows of the automatic reaction (AR) at the start of the trading range with the largest two down bars ever. We may have a rally back to the breakout levels but I am expecting further markdown to take place.
JSE:J200 Top 40 Change in CharacterThis week has seen the largest down bar. Volatility to the downside has been increasing since 2015 and the clear change in character (CoC) last week could indicate a lot more downside to come. We have been following what has been looking like distribution for some time and this move could be the markdown in phase D. After a possible pause at the bottom of the trading range we could be in for a larger markdown below the trading range in phase E.
JSE Allshare shortThe JSE Allshare came off resistance, turning down from overbought levels. Round numbers for a 2:1 reward to risk trade - Short at 57000 with a stop at 58000 and a target of 55000.
$USDZAR FX:USDZAR
After Moody downgrade whole world expected for ZAR to weaken against USD but exactly opposite happens. Rand is currently 1% stronger vs Majors.
This is great lesson that one should always expect unexpected in the markets.
Pair star making small flat bottom triangle inside big flat top triangle. All in all market is currently sideways, trading at the same levels from September 2018.
If you trend follower you can leave in on the side for time been.
Trade well!
JSE:J200 Top 40 a Turn for the WorstThe Top 40 has previously found support at the yearly pivot point. After a rally, there has been a rejection of the 200Day MA. Volume is decreasing on rallies and increasing on declines indicating the selling pressure. It does not seem that the 200Day MA will hold again.
