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Initiating a long term bullish position in goldThis is an analysis that I hope that it ages well, as I am starting a long term position in gold today and adding this asset to my investment portfolio. Therefore, this is not a post about an isolated trade, with a specific expiration date or focused on the short-term. In fact, from a trading point of view I have already lost some great entry opportunities, since November 2022, which the asset provided. Looking back on the chart, I could see four previous entry opportunities that fit my setups. Unfortunately, I wasn't psychologically prepared to trade them and I was left out, but I will try to take some advantage of this situation and later write a study post pointing out these entries. Another post on trading psychology, This is an analysis that I hope that it ages well, as I am starting a long term position in gold today and adding this asset to my investment portfolio. Therefore, this is not a post about an isolated trade, with a specific expiration date or focused on the short-term. In fact, from a trading point of view I have already lost some great entry opportunities, since November 2022, which the asset provided. Looking back on the chart, I could see four previous entry opportunities that fit my setups. Unfortunately, I wasn't psychologically prepared to trade them and I was left out, but I will try to take some advantage of this situation and later write a study post pointing out these entries. Another post on trading psychology, fears involved, strategies to control them and analysis paralysis may also be written later (spoiler: risk sizing and embracing the risk consciously helps to tame the beast) . However, from an investment point of view, with a long-term perspective and also taking advantage of some hedging to reduce risk, it is better to buy gold late than never, or as I prefer to say, better late than too late. Because if a strong bull run starts after this breakout, I would regret not buying at the $2000 quote level. And, yes, there are indications that this may become a reality. The first indication comes from the analysis of the chart, gold prices have been stuck into a multi-year congestion between $1700 and $2000. Tipically, the longer the congestion is, the more intense its breakout and further away the target, and historically gold has been king of this setup. The $2000 level is where the price peaked during the covid crisis and the russian invasion of Ukraine. I mean, this price level is imposing a very strong limit on quotations. But we're now facing the threat of a future interest rate and expected inflation much higher than we've been used to over the last decades (since the 90s, specifically), and these things could be a real game changer for the market scenario. So, here the gold quotes are, back at the $2000 resistance level and showing strong volume near it. Of course, resistance can work once again, but we have to trade probabilities and deal with risk, and that means grabbing a good entry opportunity like this one, and accepting a loss if the signal deviates. The second indication comes from the analysis of the market cycle. All clues point to the fact that we may already be at the beginning of a secular bear market cycle, which means that expected future returns for the next years (10y average) can be near zero, single digit, or even negative. I'm not predicting some kind of crash here, it's different, this is not a single intense bearish movement, but a future outlook of low stock market growth. Using the model published by Ed Easterling in his book, Unexpected Returns, the top (thus the beginning of the end) of a secular bull market comes with high P/E's, low dividend yields, low inflation and low interest rates. This was just the scenario we had few years ago and it started to crack, first inflation got out of control (2021), then interest rates started to rise (2022) and P/E's just began to fall with last year falling quotes, but it's still on a high level, so this could just be the beginning of this cycle of low returns. With this in mind, it is important to notice that gold is often the best secular bear market asset par excellence (see the returns in the 2000s and in the 1970s periods), but so far in this newborn bear cycle, gold has yet to shine, despite the very bearish year of 2022. Considering the secular bear market hypothesis and the very long chart congestion, added to the habit of this asset to make strong breakouts, I decided to initiate a long term bullish position in gold. I made my entry using the ETF GLD. I bought the shares today, March 20th, 2023, at the market opening, @184.17. To manage my risk I also bought a bear put spread with strikes 166/165. I intend to stop the loss if this entry reaches a -6.5% loss. I've bought enough options to pay back my losses if that happens. The protection has cost me 0,8% of the position. Hopefully in the future I will post more about this position, and then I will use the GLD chart. For now, for a general approach, I prefer to do my analysis using the future contract chart.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by thessia_
SPX facing resistance to keep falling - a new doubt levelI'm updating my last reading on SPX about the beginning of a bearish leg. I understand that that previous signal has worked, and market failed to support the 200-SMA, although we're now facing a new test. My outlook remains the same, that the main trend is bearish, but I also believe that the path to the low may come along with counter-trend movements and congestions. On March 13th, prices reached the region of the last bottom and a massive buying volume showed up sustaining the market upper from that level. This drove us to where we are now, pulling back to the 200-SMA, and this famous average is now giving us a new make or break setup. The next days movements will probably drive the direction of the market for the next few weeks, and that could be either bearish or bullish. I would prefer if this was a bearish movement, along with the trend, that tends to make a more straighforward path and with a longer target (I estimate a gain around 10 to 15%, counting from last week close). Any set of black candles would point this way. On the other hand, some white candles, specially with a good volume, would point to the bullish or congestion case. But I believe that it would be a counter trend movement, barely reaching the previous top region (with a posssible return of 6% to 9%) - of course I can be wrong, but then we re-evalute the scenario if the top if reached. I don't know if I will trade the bull case, because I think this would be a more short-term situation. But for the bear case, I'm keeping open my bearish position that targets the next few months.
SP:SPX
by thessia_
$BTC Still expecting 11.2-11.4s before actually breaking downI dont see any reason to be super bearish here. Yes we have sell signals from 4h-9h. Short scalps are safe but I am still holding ontop my swing longs from 98/99 until we get to atleast 11.2-11.4 zone. The black area that is highlighted has not been tested yet. Usually $BTC likes to retest areas that it previously break down from before breaking into a new range. Conclusion. I am scalping shorts but looking to fill more longs on the way do wn. I think 10.7s will provide a generous bounce back up. Follow me for updates on bitcoins move. I will be releasing youtube content shortly explaining how I scalp with the indicators!
Long
by mlouca