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Topdownanaylisis

Multi-Time Frame, Price Action Analysis on Japanese YEN StrengthHi everyone: Many have asked me about the Japanese JPY pairs outlook and forecast, as we can see they are surely gaining strength across the market. I am personally live in some of the sell and looking to hold the trade as well as scale in on additional trades as well. Now let's take a look at the pairs that I am currently in, and as well other JPY pairs from a multi-time frame, price action analysis point of view. I will go over the best ones to look out for, and share my original analysis/forecast before the moves happened. In addition, my plan on how to manage the current live positions, and plan on how to scale in new entries as well as other pairs. Starting from the current positions that I am in: CADJPY: Currently running + 6%, 6:1 RR Original Analysis/Forecast: CHFJPY: Currently running + 3.5%, 3.5/1 RR Original Analysis/Forecast: GBPJPY: Currently running + 3.5%, 3.5:1 RR Original Analysis/Forecast: EURJPY: Got out for +2.8%, 2.8:1 RR Original Analysis/Forecast: AUDJPY: NZDJPY: USDJPY: 2 entries total for BE Original Analysis/Forecast: Any questions, comments and feedback welcome to let me know. If you like more of these contents, like, subscribe/follow and comment for me to keep doing them. :) Jojo
Short
by jojofang0901
19
EURUSD - top down analysis Monthly Weekly Daily Monthly - a long-term channel set in motion in the 2008 crisis now appears to break up. EURUSD traded in its upper part for some time, then, this year, it moved outside and started to consolidate there. There is a potential resistance above 1.22000 which played some role in the past and seems to be respected again. Conclusion: bullish - traded in the upper part of the value channel for a long time and broke up Weekly - zooming in on the consolidation after a breakout, the price action appears to be neutral. The price has failed to make a new high (purple circles) but hasn't broken any previous lows yet. EURUSD balances in both upper and lower parts of the value channel equally. Lastly, there is a pin bar with a high volume. This is a clue that the reversal and bullish action are slightly more likely to take place. Conclusion: neutral - could be very narrowly bullish, but the price has gone furthest outside of the channel since its formation and the reversal sign, the pin bar, has not had any follow-up yet. Daily - looking at the potential breakout of a new channel, there appear to be several bullish signs. A few pins and a relatively big green bar running on an overwhelming volume. One thing is missing and that is a follow-up or rather lack of it. There is some buying, but the resolve to take the price higher is missing. Also, look at the purple area. There is a complete absence of any market structure. If the market moves to the upside, it should deliver the price to the top of the area. Conclusion: somewhat bullish - I will wait for a valid sign to enter the market. It has the potential to turn to the upside. We will be wiser aster Thursday as many events are scheduled then. Either way, from a risk-reward perspective, this is clearly a long opportunity.
Long
by OrcChieftain
1
CADJPY - top down analysis Monthly, Weekly, Daily The monthly timeframe reveals a triangle with a downwards Shifting Point of Control (SPOC). The price spends most of the time below SPOC. There is only one pro-longed oscillation above the level which later found resistance at the round number of 100 it failed to hold. The most recent price action shows a rejection of above-90 levels as sellers took advantage of this price and started pushing CADJPY lower. March 2020 candle stands out on the volume indicator. The candle itself is smaller than on other pairs. Perhaps, its, because the price was nearing bottom levels, and some investors stayed strong through a stock crash. Should there be another correction on the stock market, CADJPY is likely to go down as it did in the 2008 crisis, from which the pair never recovered. On the other hand, the down candle clearly violates Wyckoff's law of effort vs. result, and to interpret it properly, I will inspect a lower timeframe. Zooming in on the latest red candles, the weekly chart has all the details. The price attempted to make another higher high after it retraced lower and failed. A lower high was formed instead. Then, the price continued below the support and should create our first lower low at some point. Then, it might or might not retrace back to the structure around 88 which would be my entry if I decided to trade based on this timeframe. Notice the volume of March 2020 candles. This brings a lot more clarity to the massive volume. Even though there was a lot of selling at a time, buyers were stalwart-strong and did not let the pair go lower. A takeaway from this is that although stock market drops will increase the selling activity on CADJPY, it probably isn't the best pair to speculate on during the crisis, because there are many willing to defend it. Look right and see the red "M". This is my note table. I created a red "M" to remember that the Monthly timeframe looks bearish. As we move towards daily, a gray "W" will appear on the chart. The weekly timeframe is bearish, but a retracement to the structure around 88 is expected. On top of that, selling now would be chasing the price and that is wrong! The daily chart brings bad news as it shows that the would-be weekly entry level has already been retested. That was the best possible entry in advance of the coming downtrend. I missed it myself. The best we can hope for is that the price comes back closer to the second Lower High. The entry does not have to be perfect - a monthly chart is on our side too. But it definitely has to be good. Not bad, not slightly bad. It needs to be good! The volume-based analysis involves one high-volume candle which definitely violates Wyckoff's effort-result law. The price movement isn't as big as it should be based on consumed volume. However, I think the volume supports my analysis later and the most recent price action is always the most relevant, also. Look at the 5 last days. With the exception of Friday, the volume has increased every day and the price movement to the downside increased as well. This means that new bears are entering the arena and the trend has just started. If there is a retracement (and an entry opportunity), it shouldn't beat the biggest red candles volume-wise - but that is up to future analysis. Keep in mind that the price hit 200 daily Exponential Moving Average today. That could lead to an opportunity. "D" on the chart will be slightly red. I expect more selling, but the price has already dropped a lot, and it is on 200 EMA. It may retrace this week. Potential entry I left the purple area on the chart. That's an entry I would like to take if the price gets back up. A candlestick reversal formation needs to appear before entering short. Pinbar, engulfing or even three-bar rejections are ok.
Short
by OrcChieftain
MULTIPLE TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS/TOPDOWN ANALYSIS What is multiple timeframe analysis? What is a top-down analysis? Most technical traders in the financial markets(crypto, forex, etc) whether they are novices or seasoned pros, have come across the concept of multiple timeframe analyses in their educations. However, multiple timeframe analysis is often the first level of analysis to be forgotten when a trader pursues an edge over the market. Multiple timeframe analysis involves monitoring the same currency/crypto pair across different timeframes. While there is no real limit as to how many timeframes can be monitored, or which ones to choose, there are general guidelines that we should follow as a trader. Using three different timeframes gives a broader view of any market. Using fewer than this can result in a considerable loss of data while using more typically provides redundant analysis and indecision. When choosing the three timeframes, a simple method can be followed. this rule has been developed and shared among our students, be it day traders, swing trader, or position trader the rule is applied to help the trader pick his/her best timeframe for top-down analysis
Education
by M2FINANCIALS
2
EURUSD Market OverviewUSD selling pressure has been seen this week, due to the most recent weekly jobless claims falling to a less than expected figure. US T-Bonds gave the US Dollar Index some small gains. The Euro Commission revealed that the Eurozone growth forecast for 2021 fell to 3.8% from 4.2% Not so good right?! The economy is looking weaker and it doesn't help that Euro Central Bank Policy Maker, Mr. Makhlouf acknowledges the weakened economic growth of Europe. Its clearly mixed data here for EURUSD, and I personally don't plan to trade EURUSD as of now. There is strong resistance shown on the 4H Timeframe and until price can break and retest this structure, I wont be looking to Long the pair. But why long? Check out my analysis, the Monthly and Weekly are showing a Bullish setup. As a result, I am waiting for the Daily and 4H to align with my anticipated move to the upside; I'll be waiting for a shift in market tone.
by DADA-FX
6