Get started

Topping

COST: Sell Short Potential but Strong Support at 200The Daily Chart of COSTCO Stock shows that there is some sell short potential on the short-term trend IF the stock breaks to the downside below the low of around 216. At this time, it appears that is more likely given the lack of large lot buyers in the chart patterns. Support levels show the point gain potential moving down from the current range-bound pattern. However, COST is less likely to collapse all the way down to 50% from its all-time high. Why? Because it was never speculated to extreme highs, far from a strong support level. The furthest it can go before reaching strong support is around 200 for a bounce and 190 for serious support and risk of rebound price action.
NASDAQ:COST
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
1
ISRG: Topping Formation Risk for Selling Short PotentialIntuitive Surgical Inc., under the Medical Instruments and Supplies industry, has had strong growth over the past 3 years but it is now facing the risk of a topping formation. The topping pattern is near the phase where a completed top could occur and then downside action would include sell short professionals and sell short HFTs. Support doesn’t kick in strongly until the stock reaches the 240-250 area, which is below the 50% loss of most companies thus far in the bear market. Many firms have already lost 50% or more off their all-time high values. ISRG can shift sideways and stay there to pattern out the excessive speculation, but the technical pattern is setting up more like a risk of a top formation at this moment in time.
NASDAQ:ISRG
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
1
DE: Earnings Stock of the Day Deere & Company is one of the last to report earnings of the Dow 30 components today. High Frequency Trading firms (HFT) focus on blue chip earnings reports. DE is holding above the topping completion level for now but remains in a volatile trading range. All black lines on this weekly chart were drawn in the last quarter. Bounce support areas are defined in red. Although farm and construction equipment (mostly construction equipment) has been in high demand over the past couple of years as the US economy enjoyed its final expansion mode, that demand has declined since early this year. Deere is dependent upon construction cycles. Construction Cycles are dependent on the Real Estate Cycle, which is trending down to trough. Many real estate companies are finding it very hard to unload inventories of homes and commercial properties.
NYSE:DE
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
NTAP: Earnings Stock of the Day NetApp was one of the earliest companies in Cloud Technology. It had a stellar rise in price in 2018 but is now at risk of a topping formation. Data Storage is still a growth sub industry of the Cloud Industry. However, NTAP has gone beyond its fundamental values for 2019. Support levels are on the chart. Bounces should be expected around these price levels. This is an incomplete top. The stock could move sideways in a trading range rather than down. To sell short, the stock must break to the downside from here.
NASDAQ:NTAP
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
SENSEX Index Another Topping Formation DevelopingSENSEX INDEX India This is another index that looks like it's topping out for the summer. The great bull campaign from the 2009 low at 8075 to a high at 36370 over 9 years is in its final stages. Echoes of the Dax here. A break below 34291 will trigger a short opportunity here back to 32516 where it should attempt to bounce - but it won't get far when it does. And once it breaks below here it should start to fall away in stages to 31096 then 29169 where it should bounce harder. If at any point over the summer 29169 gives way to bears it should fall harder still 25772 and when that breaks to 22577. A series of potential short opportunities here all summer long. Be lucky.
BSE:SENSEXShort
by sumastardon
DAX Index:GER30 Topping Formation - Care Needed HereDax Index DAX Topping Formation Short Set-Ups If you trade Bitcoin you will be familiar with this pattern for sure. Having broken below the longer term lower parallel the Dax has fallen away to structure lows to left of price, dropped a little lower to take out the last swing long stops - and then promptly swung back higher again. In doing so it's tracking up a smaller pair of parallels back towards the larger parallel above it. It is going to have an insumountable problem breaking above either of the parallels now above it. In addition to showing topping activity now we have a seasonal pull working in opposition to price. 'Sell in May and go away, come back on St Leger day' is an old stock market adage for a reason. Up to 2015, in the 65 years since 1950, the US stock market has returned just 0.3pc on average between May and October. That compares with a 7.5pc average return from November to April. This significant difference is the justification for the age-old adage. St Leger is the day in September when the horse race of that name is run. It is the traditional end of the season, short-hand for being out of the market during the less profitable summer months and fully invested in the winter. This pattern of seasonality is very much present but not apparent every single year. That would be too much to expect. Nevertheless, it's very much there, even if it does hide sometimes inside the noise. Long story short, this index is vulnerable again now. It's testing the junction between fixed and dynamic support lines at 12789 now. Failure to hold here should tip it back into bear hands again and force it lower to 12599 to begin with where it should try to bounce away again - any failure to do so will trigger another wave of selling back to 12323. Both these breaks should be worth shorting when they come. Any break below any fixed line of support by more than 25 points should lead to a near term test of the next support line. The biggest of these moves lower is the last, from 12300 down to 11856-11744. On the upside this index has to hold up at 12789 now for the bulls to stay in control from here. It can do this one last time and rally from here right back to the highs and just take the stops above out, before falling away again. This is effectively inverse price action to the action we saw at the last swing lows of March. But that is a best case scenario. At best this is a speculative buy at 12827 because the stop is so close by, just under 12800 for 30 or so loss if wrong here. But be ready to short on first break below 12800 with stops 60 or more above. The up-trend looks to be waning and running out of upside momentum now. Be ready for the break lower, maybe set an alert, and act on it. It could be a good trade - if we don't get stopped out first...
FX:GER30Short
by sumastardon
Dax Index: GER30 Topping Formation short Set-Ups Clean Chart/BDax Index DAX Topping Formation If you trade Bitcoin you will be familiar with this pattern for sure. Having broken below the longer term lower parallel the Dax has fallen away to structure lows to left of price, dropped a little lower to take out the last swing long stops - and then promptly swung back higher again. In doing so it's tracking up a smaller pair of parallels back towards the larger parallel above it. It is going to have an insumountable problem breaking above either of the parallels now above it. In addition to showing topping activity now we have a seasonal pull working in opposition to price. 'Sell in May and go away, come back on St Leger day' is an old stock market adage for a reason. Up to 2015, in the 65 years since 1950, the US stock market has returned just 0.3pc on average between May and October. That compares with a 7.5pc average return from November to April. This significant difference is the justification for the age-old adage. St Leger is the day in September when the horse race of that name is run. It is the traditional end of the season, short-hand for being out of the market during the less profitable summer months and fully invested in the winter. This pattern of seasonality is very much present but not apparent every single year. That would be too much to expect. Nevertheless, it's very much there, even if it does hide sometimes inside the noise. Long story short, this index is vulnerable again now. It's testing the junction between fixed and dynamic support lines at 12789 now. Failure to hold here should tip it back into bear hands again and force it lower to 12599 to begin with where it should try to bounce away again - any failure to do so will trigger another wave of selling back to 12323. Both these breaks should be worth shorting when they come. Any break below any fixed line of support by more than 25 points should lead to a near term test of the next support line. The biggest of these moves lower is the last, from 12300 down to 11856-11744. On the upside this index has to hold up at 12789 now for the bulls to stay in control from here. It can do this one last time and rally from here right back to the highs and just take the stops above out, before falling away again. This is effectively inverse price action to the action we saw at the last swing lows of March. But that is a best case scenario. At best this is a speculative buy at 12827 because the stop is so close by, just under 12800 for 30 or so loss if wrong here. But be ready to short on first break below 12800 with stops 60 or more above. The up-trend looks to be waning and running out of upside momentum now. Be ready for the break lower, maybe set an alert, and act on it. It could be a good trade - if we don't get stopped out first...
FX:GER30Short
by sumastardon
WTI Near Term Topping FormationWTI: USOIL West Texas Intermediate Unlike on Brent chart there is only one clear and true reverse head and shoulders evident on the WTI chart (left shoulder not 'true' on the smaller one, yet so clearly evident on the Brent chart, please see companion forecast for UKOIL for comparison). So this chart is still forecasting longer term upward pressure to the eventual minimum upside target implied by the RHS at 84.82. However, in the nearer term WTI continues to flip within the 150 pip forecast range but due to Brent reaching a significant target point the lower end of the range at 71.30 on WTI is likley to give way at some point quite soon. If you've been playing this range over the last week it's holding right now at 150 pips off the high pretty much but not worth buying again here. It should fall away to 69.69 and if that then fails to the lower parallel at 66.81. Any subsequent failure from here on to hold on to that lower parallel will tip WTI back into bear territory - can then follow short again if we see it further out in time.
FX:USOILShort
by sumastardon
UKOIL: Brent Crude Oil Short Term Topping FormationBrent Crude Oil UKOIL Update Bad Bad Thing Sometimes you have to own up to an over-ambitious call, this one made worse by sheer blindness, which really stings. It ain't an eroor in the chart which is as good as gold still right now. More an error with the pilot...who spotted a large and still bona fide reverse head and shoulders with an eventual upside target at 91.86 - but completely failed to see the very obvious smaller reverse head and shoulders shown on the chart, this time with an upside target at 80.15. Yesterday, that level was reached. My very bad. Sorry for that blind oversight. Now Brent is unwinding within a range bounded by 80.15-80.57 on the upside and 77.85 on the downside. This range belongs to day traders in the neat term, selling off the high line and buying back off the 78-77.85 range. If Brent is to go into a longer period of consolidation it should be now, from the top of the completed smaller RHS target at 80.15. If so, it will soon go on to break below the 77.85 level and that should trigger swing traders short looking for a test of 72.69 and the lower dynamic before it bounces away to the upside again. Worth following once we see it. Returning to the upside Brent has to break and hold above 80.60 to trigger the next long from here up to 87. The next resistance level of any real significance above here lies at 88.35 and then 91.86 which is the longer term target implied by the larger and more ambitious of the two RHS's. Until then, unless day trading this complex, swing traders are advised to await the next signal here before following with stops around 50 pips or so above/below the break levels when triggered.
TVC:UKOIL
by sumastardon
Apple: Upward Channel or Rising Broadening WedgeApple is currently in an overall upward trend. It's a range with a series of increasingly taller triple tops, but both the overall low's and high's are going up. However, when drawing the lines, I noticed that it is forming a very slight wedge. If the disparitities between the high and low trend lines increase further, Apple could be bearish. Until then, investors are encouraged to sell while the stock is topping and buy after corrections.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by dfsemeraro
UPDATE on MY EUROUSD SHORTWell,has been tough these last two days. After I have been shorting Euro like crazy it rose more than one figure. That hurts!!!! But I still stick to the fact that we have a major top and remain short. I post the weekly chart and that blue line you see comes from the Monthly chart and I pulled it from the very top. It is the secular downtrend line. My point is that the volatility and the volumes we see at these levels are typical of a top formation. If we break that blue line and close two consecutive days above it I will have to reconsider and my G.. stop my shorts (uuuuh painful). Today Europeans tried to go beyond 1.25 in early morning but it stayed above for very little, then all day until the figures I could see that buyers had no strenght for another attempt...1.2497 has been holding. So I expect that by Europe close other sales will come in as this week long will capitulate and close positions before the start of the weekend (many are doing it now, and I am talking about the big guys that take large positions, hedge funds and financial institution traders...what I was in the past... big, arrogant and dumb :-)). I would not be surprised to see a drop to 1.24 by tonight. Anyway. My point is the big picture and believe that the risk is on the downside, these are the last days of the Bullish Euro. I cannot add the RSI indicator but a weekly divergence is underway and if the indicator moves below 70 the price will drop heavily. Have a nice weekend for those who care. For info I hope to activate my blog Teforecaster.eu by next week but will post here too.
Short
by TheForecaster
SPX Turnaround?Yesterday’s session was interesting for multiple reasons. Firstly the S&P configuration: Opening above the previous historic high but slowly eroding intraday from that new top, to end below the previous close in above average volume. Secondly, the technicals on the index suggest a reversal could be at play from a very high RSI above 80 (overbought). Thirdly, the VIX was up more than 21% intraday and 15% at the close. And finally, it seems options on major indexes saw a significant surge in traded volume yesterday (2x average). Could it be that fear is gripping the market ahead of a potential US budget shutdown? Or will there be a continuation in the current trend after the usual one-day breather? We will need confirmation over the next couple of sessions before we can definitively conclude, but Futures suggest a rebound today. The main trend remains upwards, and I remain long the market but mindful of a potential correction to come.
SP:SPXLong
by HAL9000
Boeing - How high can it fly?Boeing - How high can it fly? Boeing has gone supersonic and is close to leap into space... But is this time different and it will become weightless or will gravity make its influence pull Boeing back down? You can be sure that it's the later that will win causing a major plunge in a not too distance future. The reward to risk ratio no longer favor staying long in Boeing. Wave 3/ of 5 has already seen a 500% extension of wave 1/ and is close to being a 161.8% extension of wave 1 through wave 3 added to the low of wave 4. I expect wave 3/ will peak at 295.75 for a correction towards at least 255 and maybe even closer to 231 before the final spike higher to 311 to complete wave 5/ of 5. This will be when gravity finally will pull Boeing back to earth, for a strong decline to 175.50. Don't fall in love and fly away with Boeing at these levels...
NYSE:BA
by EWS
3
USDTRY Double top and trendchannel retest.The pair has traded sideways in a range between 3.9 and 3.4 since January 2017. Price printed a channel blow-off top in January 2017 with intervention from the government amongs other things. Price have now traded above the january highs and rejected 8 daily sessions in a row. The TCMB (The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey) defended their currency at these levels once before, odds are that they will do it again. Technicals:Double top - trendchannel retest - 8 daily sessions in a row unable to break above 3.9 and stay above. Looking for a move down to lower trendline support. This trade also provides positive carry, so each day, this position will generate swaps.
Short
by Norsefx
Bitcoin - Time to be fearfulThe buying frenzy in Bitcoin, just continues to push it higher and higher. There is no time to correct properly. The rally is now close to being vertical, which isn't a good thing. I was look for this rally to may extend to 10,768 and here we are. However, the extreme buying frenzy could push Bitcoin into the 11,073 - 11,627 area, but it's time to become fearful and take a contrarian approach. Yesterday the Danish news ran a story about a mom, that had bought Bitcoin from her son's savings account. I'm not saying it's not a good investment, but that is a sign to me, to become very fearful. A break below minor support at 9,848 will indicate that wave (3) has peaked and wave (4) towards at least 6,700 is developing. As wave (2) was a deep zig-zag correction, we should expect a time-consuming and complex sideways correction in wave (4). Tighten up your stops!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by EWS
13
Bitcoin - The final swings of wave (3) developingBitcoin has seen a phenomenal rally in wave (3). Only a year ago it traded near 755 against the USD and now it hovers near 8,100. I'm still looking for a little more upside closer to 9,150, but the best part of the rally in wave (3) is now behind us. As wave (2) was a simple, but deep zig-zag correction, we should expected wave (4) to be a complex structure in the form of a flat or a triangle consolidation and it should be relatively shallow compared to wave (2). But a relatively shallow correction of 38.2% of wave (3), will still mean a decline close to 5,800.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by EWS
DJT - Wave 5/ of 5 of V to cluster resistance near 10,756The Transportation index in now in wave 5/ of 5 of V and should ideally make it higher to the cluster resistance near 10,756. It's clear that a five wave rally can be counted from the March 2009 low of 2,134 and a five wave rally can also be counted from the January 2016 low of 6,403. Once this five way rally is complete a decline towards at least 6,403 should be expected. However, my preferred count shows that this five wave rally completes an impulse of one larger degree, which calls for a corrective decline all the way down to the March 2009 low at 2,134... It's no a question of "if", but "when" the DJT tops. So don't fall in love with Transportation and become overly bullish at this point.
DJ:DJTLong
by EWS