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Bitcoin - A nice little S/H/S top confirms wave E is developing Wave D peaked nice near the expected resistance-area and now a nice little S/H/S top confirms that wave E is developing. The ideal target for this E-wave is seen at 3,655, but be aware that triangle E-waves can be sub-normal and complete the triangle consolidation prematurely. Once this wave 4 triangle is complete a strong rally is expected in wave 5. A Bitcoin seems to have a tendency to extend its fifth wave rallies, that could call for a rally all the way to 9,150, before topping.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by EWS
2
Copper peaked for a decline towards 2.48This is just a correction of my count on the September 7 post. I saw that my annotation for wave Y was off and I have corrected it, but the outcome remains the same. A top is in place for a decline towards at least 2.48. Yesterdays strong decline of 3.45% adds confidence in this count. The big question is, whether a third zig-zag rally is seen from 2.48 or a break below this strong support will be seen? The structure of the decline from 3.18 will answer that question in time for us to act, but for now, just let's concentrate on the decline towards 2.48.
COMEX:HG1!
by EWS
Direct Line could be forming a large topDirect Line Group continues to trade within a medium term downtrend. In the last couple of sessions we have seen a rejection at the medium term trend resistance line and also the top of a range that has developed over the past few months. This rejection is likely to trigger a move to the lower end of the channel at 332p. 332p is a huge support level that has held since July 2015. If this breaks to the downside, then I would expect to see a sharp move lower as large top pattern completes. The shares rank towards the bottom of my fundamental model, scoring poorly on growth and profitability metrics. My trade today is to sell on the open. Target 1 is for a move to the bottom of the range at 332p, then if this breaks look for a move towards 245p over the medium term. Stop loss on the trade is at 374p
LSE:DLGShort
by Investamate
1
GBPUSD - BEARISH STRUCTUREGBPUSD has formed two bearish harmonic patterns after breaking out of a symmetrical triangle. Will be looking for possible decline. This is for my self education purposes, not likely to trade this trade as I don't at the moment hold my positions overnight and rather scalp intraday instead. But as I am always curious about various market assessment methods and quite fond of harmonic patterns, I wanted to take a note of this event "for history" sort of speak. Let's see how this develops. PURPOSE: This is a trading journal note for purpose of practicing pattern recognition. Author may not necessarily trade this idea. DISCLAIMER: Trading is a risky business and there is possibility of losing all your trading capital and more. This post is not an advice or an instruction to trade and does not gurantee profitable outcome. This is for informatoin purpose ONLY. Choice to act on this information is your own and hence responsability for outcome of that choice is also your own. I am not liable for any adverse outcomes. Update status
Short
by ggekkotrader
Double Top Formation in Lumber FuturesLooking at the charts for Lumber Futures, I was originally upset that I missed the absolutely insane rally in Lumber going back to the start of 2016. However, no use in getting pissed about the past, let's focus on the present. Lumber just formed a double top with price around 400 going back to 2013. I am waiting for confirmation of a bearish reaction to the double top, and if it does, would short it right below 385 (most recent support level). If it falls below 385, I would look to take profits at the 340 level. I would hold on to some of the position at that level because 340 presents another layer of support. At this level, it could either bounce on support, or breakdown through it. Would put my stop losses around 355 to protect from a bounce off support. Anything below 355 should be long term trending bearish and would recommend riding profits while moving your stops down along with your position. Would love to have a differing opinion to bounce ideas off of on this trade. All the best, Brandon
LShort
by BrandonBeylo
Putting Spy Into PerspectiveHere's a look at a "mega" weekly pitchfork and major price pivots. The way I drew it, price has recently reacted to the median line, with highs reaching just above the 0.625 pitchfork level (each line is a 0.125 increment of a pitchfork). Of course, this isn't really a valid pitchfork, since prices have never reached the 1.0 level in the first place to create that necessary pitchfork pivot (P1), so this is only a hypothetical pitchfork in a possible future retrospect (if that makes sense?). The "real pitchfork" (RP) has the solid red line as the 1.0 (P1) level and the bottom solid black line as it's 0 (P2) level, with prices reaching as high as the 1.25 level (as the increments would now be twice that of the two-times larger pitchfork - 0.25 increments for RP, instead of the 0.125 that the hypothetical pitchfork uses). In any case, it's to be expected that prices would come back to test the solid red line after breaking through it and the odds favored that it would happen at the 1.25 level to the RP. We have a definite pivot (topping) pattern, similar to what is seen at the other major pivot levels in the past (shown by the squiggly red lines drawn on the chart). The behavior of this potential top is much different than both the 2000 and 2007 stops, both in that its tops are playing at the potential pivot area much longer (with more tests) and in that the corrections to those top tests have made a much wider (volatile), but far less sloping, price channel. What does this all mean? The way I see it, there are two likely scenarios playing out (of course, the actual number of possibilities are endless): 1.) We aren't seeing the top to a major bear market in the making. The slope to the price channel during this correction, and the possibility that price has been reacting with what could become a type of median line in retrospect to a future pitchfork (after the next possible future bull-run completes), both allow for this possibility. In other words, price may be gearing up for another major price move upwards. We would expect that a major median line to a pitchfork would hold up to a lot of tests (act as strong support) and we should expect many tests after price traded so long below it before finally breaking it. The next logical step (after the median line holds up to repeated tests) is for price to go back to testing higher pitchfork levels, with a fairly high probability of the 1.0 level being tested after the strength of the median line was made abundantly clear. 2.) We're simply seeing a different type of start to a major bear market, this time happening with a wider, but less sloping start to the decline, and at the 1.25 pitchfork level (drawn off of the price channel created by the 1990's bull market and two proceeding major bear market corrections). The question is of what importance this very different topping behavior and size (and slope) of the initial price channel correction this will play on how the bear market plays out (will it break out of the channel with a fast and steep drop like in 2007, only more steeply and further down due to more volatility in the initial price channel correction to the topping pattern?). We could see a test of the bottom of RF out of a very steep and quick drop from the current price channel. We could also see a test of the median line to RF, wherein price trades mostly inside of the current price channel. Of the two options presented here, I'd go with the former as the more probable (quick, deep decline out of the current price channel), because it's been so long since the last major correction (bear market) and the topping pattern has taken so long to form (giving signs of storing a lot of "energy" for the move ahead).
AMEX:SPY
by JamesBrown
4
Russian Dolls - 3 x Head and Shoulders on Dow JonesWe have three head and shoulders patterns nestled within one another like Russian dolls. The first two patterns are now confirmed and have played out, and now a return to the neckline number 2 (yellow line) will give a good short entry for us to aim to break the third neckline (green) and continue a correction of the rise since mid February. If that third neckline (green) breaks we should see a return to test the 17k mark on the Dow which tends to equate to 2000 on the S&P 500
FX:US30Short
by BobVanders
2