Topside
$AMD Trade Idea --- Weekly RSI breakout ---Top side resistance breakout on the weekly RSI. Look for a breakout of the green line for a sure entry point.
Volume should confirm moves.
Trade at your own risk. Have a trading plan with a predetermined stop loss
Trade IdeaNot too sure about this one quite yet after today's price action.
I do have a position at $81.50
Trade Idea --- RSI Breakout ---ER would be the catalyst for this breakout making me more skeptical than I otherwise would.
Appears to be a slow mover
Trade IdeaBuying today reminds me of MLM a few weeks ago. Interested to see how this plays out. WIll likely retest breakout point if I had to guess
Trade Idea --- Daily & Weekly Breakout ---Wait for confirmation this next week.
Volume should confirm
Trade Idea --- Daily & Weekly RSI breakouts ---Daily RSI broke out this last week on good volume.
Lets see if the Weekly is also ready to take off.
1.) looking for a MACD zero crossing and trendline break
2.) looking for RSI breakout
3.) looking for good volume
4.) GMMA(not shown, sorry) on the weekly shows compression between traders and investors
Idea came thru on the StockTradeBot Bullish MACD scan
Trade Idea --- RSI & MACD ---Interestingly $NKE recently had a similar setup as well.
Trade details on the chart.
Is there any reason retail would be bullish right now?
Late Trade Idea --- RSI & MACD ---This idea came across my scanner last week. I never got into the trade... And probably wont as I just wont get a entry with much tolerance to downside.
Bullish above RSI 69.1 and RSI Uniformity line. use Uniformity line as a sell signal
Personal note: Idea from "alternative 2" scan
Trade Idea --- Weekly RSI breakout setup ---Looking for topside resistance breakout on the weekly RSI.
MACD should be performing a zero line crossing during this time.
GMMA looks rather bullish with trader and investor MAs compressing on one another.
Consider entry around the orange price action resistance line drawn.
Determine you stop loss before entering the trade
Weekly Trade Idea A little different setup than I am use to, But I thought it was worth publishing.
We will reflect on this in a few weeks, stay tuned.
As a side note analyst have very high price targets on this equity. Ranging from $65 to $100
leave a like if you find this of interest
Follow for more trade ideas
As always comments are always welcomed and appreciated :)
Take care
APPLE: POST EARNINGS - 1.42EPS & $42.4BN BEAT - UP 8% @ 103.5 PMApple beat expectations marginally at 42.4bn and 1.42EPS.
Apple reported not outstanding results, but nonetheless, the earnings call from Tim Cook et al. gave Apple the momentum to break the 101 resistance level and we closed post market up at the last low 100 resistance level at 103.5 (filled the low 100's resistance gap in).
Today the market will go either way -
1) With more liquidity backing the move break-out to the 104's - from here I would advise buying with a target of 110-112.
- Signs of this move would be a bullish pre-market e.g. 104-5; I would advise buying this level ASAP OR risk-averse traders could wait and see if we get a pullback into the 103.8 resistance level at some point after the rally as a recovery leg of the move higher which would be almost inevitable
2) and my preferred prediction is that more liquidity brings us back down to at least the previous resistance level at 101 before then moving higher in the next few days to break-out the 104 and trade towards 110, as IMO 103.4 is high relative to the results - yes they just beat estimates but IMO the estimates were very low and i infact expected more. Nonetheless, given apples depression and even at 110 trading 20% down I can easily see this becoming a recovery rally to the 112 level before reversing (especially as the Nasdaq continues to make new 12m highs on its way to ATH). BOJ on friday is something to watch out for though - a miss will likely turn risk markets sour and take the carpet from under apples feet say if it was at 107.
- Signs of this will obviously be a quiet pre-market or a bearish pre-market e.g. trading at 103 flat, then when market opens we see a cascade of old TPs move us to the 101 level where supply/ demand stabilises. Or simply in pre-market we've already moved to 101 and are ticking along. IMO if this is the case it is best to see if we can get a 102/104(breakout) before buying as at 101 we run the risk of breaking lower (as we have seen apple break lower from 101 several times).
3) Also it is possible that the market sees apple as expensive at 103/4 so sells off straight through the 101 resistance say to low 99/100's - this imo is a bearish setup and i dont think Apple will plan on having any upside momentum going forward e.g. no 104 breakout if today in pre/ normal market we see 100 or less.
- Signs of this will obviously be a sell-off from the 103.5 post market to the 100 level in pre/normal market. Here I have no interest in buying as i expect apple to move back into the 90's with time - also you have to remember even a sell-off to the 100s shows apple up 4% as it closed at $96 yesterday.
Personal Note:
I have long been an apple bull so i like the topside possibilities but equally Apple has struggled of late to hold onto gains/ rally. that said, the time to rally would be now (on target earnings/ bull market/ upbeat earnings call/ broken initial resistance levels) - it would have been nice to see apple trade through the final level at 104 which is the last highly restrictive technical level left, but the fact it held means we have to be vigilant - read the above and make smart decisions.
BUY GOOGLE @$711 - LOWER VOLS, VOLU & LOWS; HIGHER CORRS & HIGHSGoogle C-Class shares i am bullish over the 6-12m, hence I am buying any 5-10% pull backs from highs.
Goog has been moving sideways but i think it has just started a cycle higher, in which it is about to make a higher low at 710-15 before moving up again to 750+
715-750 is a 5% move hence i am interested in buying at this price with reward skewed something 1.5:1 with risk.
Coming into earnings, Goog has to make at least one bull run to highs at 770 and i believe this will be the set up for the run for several reasons:
1. since april earnings lows at 687 goog has moved in an upward trend of 688-722-700-736, the next cycle i approximate to be down to 710-3 (volume traded price) then up to 750+ (previous support turned resistance).
Also the Linear regression for the on graph prices is $723, so prices below this are below this cycles average - encouraging mean reversion upwards.
2. Goog volatility correlation is in its negative cycle - the last bull cycle to 768 began with a turn from positive to negative price-volatility correlation change.
- Plus goog's volatility is at yearly lows with VXGO at 17.. Low vols is something that imo is vital for any sustained bull run, as logically, more people want to own a stock that has a greater "normalised" return and risk profile.
3. Average Volume divergence - google volume is trading below its 6 month average, lower volume characterises goog's bull runs typically, as shown in the previous bull run. Since it signifies there are fewer structural sellers that are prepared to sell the stock, thus volume drops and the price is bid up until sell side liquidity is increased sufficiently to meet a new, higher, equilibrium price.
4. *please see last 3 price bars* - these bars have been highlighted as having a "topside range skew". What is inferred by this is that the candle has more activity at the higher prices e.g. the candle traded at its highs and open more than its close and low - thus this is a bullish signal as the open high and close data stayed in the upper percentiles of the candle.
- Even the first candle in question (the first bear candle), opened and closed at apprx the median price.. this is unusual. the first bear candle after a strong bullish run, usually shows heavy open-close downside skew e.g. the price opens and then closes close to the lows (rather than in the middle of prices traded) - indicating that time period closed with the price being driven/held at the lowest possibility.
If we were to see the opposite e.g. the candles closing on the lows, this would be bearish and indicate the price is wanting to push lower, since there was no difference between the low and close.
Fundamentally i am also long google, hence why i like buying any decent pull backs - especially when they have a strong set up.
LOW VOLUME, VOLATILITY & PRICE + CORRS TURN NEGATIVE (LONG AAPL)The strong fundamentals aside, Apple is showing signs of upside stability and momentum.
IMO after a failing bear run last week this week we are set up for a week of gains, given that friday - the naturally bearish day for stocks, apple managed to close higher, going against the trend of the previous two days of high volume and losses, and instead, carving itself out some strong support at 97-98.
reasoning for apple upside recently has been:
1. to start the febuary bull run we saw, correlation between Apples price and Vols turn negative from positive - and establish the correct relationship of lower volatility and higher price, as the greater stability provides a home for more liquidity.
- at the end of may correlations between the two did the same again - moving from positive to negative. shortly after apple recovered from 90-100. The negative relationship is still holding (infact increasing) and therefore i take it as a bullish sign, as more investors should flow into the stock.
2. The Febuary bull run was characterised by lower than average volume, as IMO, the market had less sellers in due to the cheap value apple was providing at the <100. Once again in the last 2 weeks apple is showing lower than average volume, which i am again taking as bullish. Low volume at these prices only means one thing - holders do not want to sell at these prices and thus the price must be bid up to encourage more selling.
- also the low sell side liquidity may cause the stock to trade gappy, until we reach the 100 level again, where volume may pick up again as uncertainty increases selling.
3. Volatility for apple is at yearly lows at 21 flat. Low vols in this price environment, is very bullish for the stock, as it is cheap and safe, the two characteristics investors seek. Further, it was in the may-June period 2015 where vols were last at 21 flat AND also when apple made its record highs several times at 134, Thus, the low vols and previous price action at the same time last year gives me a positive outlook on the stock.
This week id like to see a 101 close, ideally a 103 close. I believe apple is cheap even at 115-120 given its only 11/2x p:e for a leading tech company which is low.
Apple risk at these prices is super low, I am personally buying apple at any price below $100 with a 6-12 month target in line with the market at 120+.
