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TOTAL Crypto Market Cap: Structural Breakout Aligns with Macros## 📊 TOTAL – Crypto Market Cap Ready for Expansion Phase? --- ### 🧵 **Summary** The crypto market is showing signs of strong macro strength, with TOTAL reclaiming major support levels and forming a structurally bullish setup. Our multi-Fibonacci confluences and hidden bullish divergence point toward the possibility of a sustained breakout and new expansion leg toward \$4.9T and beyond. This bullish view is further supported by powerful macro fundamentals expected over the next 8–10 months, including: * Central bank rate cuts and liquidity expansion * U.S. and EU regulatory clarity (stablecoins, ETFs, MiCA) * Strong institutional adoption and geopolitical shifts * Ethereum scaling upgrades and Bitcoin halving cycle effects Together, these narratives form a compelling foundation for a broad-based market cap expansion. --- ### 📈 **Chart Context** This is a **weekly chart of the TOTAL crypto market cap**, providing a bird’s-eye view of market cycles, macro structure, and capital flow across the entire ecosystem. --- ### 🧠 **Key Technical Observations** * **Reclaim of \$3.02T level** (key support/fib level) signals macro bullish momentum. * Market is forming **higher lows and bullish continuation structures**. * **Support zones:** \$3.02T (reclaimed), \$2.57T (key pivot), * **Resistance/TP zones:** * **TP1 – \$3.75T** (100% trend-based fib + -27% retracement expansion) * **TP2 – \$4.9T** (161.8% trend-based fib + -61.8% retracement expansion) * **TP3 – \$6.9T** (261.8% fib extension target) --- ### 🧶 **Fibonacci Confluences and TP Logic** We’ve employed both **standard Fibonacci retracement** and **trend-based extension** tools to build our target structure. The **1TP and 2TP zones** are defined by confluences between: * **Retracement expansion levels** of **-27% and -61.8%** * **Trend-based extension levels** of **100% and 161.8%** If price reaches 2TP (~~\$4.9T) and **retraces toward the parallel legs** (100%–127%), this would confirm structural symmetry and open the door for a final push toward \*\*TP3 (~~\$6.9T)\*\* — the 261.8% extension. --- ### 🔍 **Indicators** * **MACD Crossover** and rising histogram bars * **Hidden Bullish Divergence** between MACD and price – a classic continuation signal * Weekly trendline breakout from accumulation zone --- ### 🧠 **Fundamental Context** While not directly charted, key macro catalysts like ETF approvals, global liquidity cycles, monetary easing, and increasing institutional interest will likely play a role in the next phase of expansion. This chart captures the structural readiness for that narrative. ## 📊 Fundamental Context (Extended Outlook: Mid-2025 to Early 2026) Below is a detailed breakdown of upcoming macroeconomic, geopolitical, and crypto-specific developments sourced from: * Bitwise Asset Management * Fidelity Digital Assets * ARK Invest * CoinDesk, Reuters, Axios, WSJ * CapitalWars, Cointelegraph, Coinpedia * European Commission (MiCA regulations) * U.S. Congressional records and SEC announcements These events are chronologically aligned to support a structured macro bullish thesis for TOTAL market cap. Bullish Crypto Catalysts (June 2025 – Feb 2026) Summer 2025 (Jun–Aug): Monetary Easing and Regulatory Breakthroughs Central Bank Policy Pivot: By mid-2025, major central banks are shifting toward easier policy. Market expectations indicate the U.S. Federal Reserve will stop tightening and begin cutting interest rates in 2025, with forecasts of up to three rate cuts by end-2025 bitwiseinvestments.eu . Declining inflation and rising unemployment are pushing the Fed in this direction bitwiseinvestments.eu bitwiseinvestments.eu . Easier monetary policy increases global liquidity and risk appetite, historically providing a tailwind for Bitcoin and crypto prices bitwiseinvestments.eu . In fact, global money supply is near record highs, a condition that in past cycles preceded major Bitcoin rallies bitwiseinvestments.eu . Should economic volatility worsen, the Fed has even signaled readiness to deploy fresh stimulus, which would inject more liquidity – “another tailwind for Bitcoin price growth” nasdaq.com . Liquidity and Inflation Trends: With inflation trending down from earlier peaks, central banks like the Fed and European Central Bank are under less pressure to tighten. This opens the door for potential liquidity injections or QE if growth falters. Analysts note a strong correlation (often >84%) between expanding global M2 money supply and Bitcoin’s price rise nasdaq.com . There is typically a ~2-month lag for liquidity increases to flow into speculative assets like crypto nasdaq.com nasdaq.com . The monetary easing expected in mid-2025 could therefore boost crypto markets by late summer, as new liquidity finds its way into higher-yielding investments. One projection even models Bitcoin retesting all-time highs (~$108K by June 2025) if global liquidity continues upward nasdaq.com – underscoring how “accelerated expansion of global liquidity” often aligns with crypto bull runs nasdaq.com . U.S. Stablecoin Legislation: A landmark regulatory catalyst is anticipated in summer 2025: the first comprehensive U.S. crypto law, focused on stablecoins. The Senate has advanced the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act to a final vote coindesk.com . Passage of this bill (expected by mid-2025) would create a federal framework for stablecoin issuers, resolving a major regulatory gray area coindesk.com . Analysts call this “one of the most important regulatory developments in the history of crypto” – potentially even bigger than the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in impact coindesk.com . By enforcing prudential standards on stablecoin reserves and permitting licensed issuance, the law would legitimize stablecoins as a core part of the financial system. Bitwise predicts that clear rules could trigger a “multi-year crypto bull market,” with stablecoin market cap exploding from ~$245B to $2.5 trillion as mainstream adoption accelerates coindesk.com coindesk.com . A U.S. law would also likely set a global precedent, encouraging other regions to integrate crypto-dollar tokens into commerce. Bottom line: expected stablecoin regulation in summer 2025 is a bullish game-changer, improving market integrity and unlocking new liquidity for crypto markets coindesk.com . Regulatory Clarity in Europe: Meanwhile, Europe’s comprehensive MiCA regulations have fully taken effect as of late 2024, so by summer 2025 the EU has a unified crypto framework. This gives legal clarity to issuers, exchanges, and custodians across the 27-nation bloc pymnts.com skadden.com . The harmonized rules (covering everything from stablecoin reserves to exchange licensing) are expected to expand Europe’s crypto market size by 15–20% in the coming years dailyhodl.com . With MiCA in force, firms can confidently launch crypto products EU-wide, and institutional investors have more protection. U.K. regulators are on a similar path – e.g. recognizing stablecoins as payment instruments – further globalizing the pro-crypto regulatory trend. By mid-2025, this regulatory thaw in major economies is improving investor sentiment. Goldman Sachs recently noted that 91% of crypto firms are gearing up for MiCA compliance – a sign that industry is preparing to scale under clearer rules merklescience.com merklescience.com . Overall, the summer of 2025 marks a turning point: governments are embracing sensible crypto rules (rather than harsh crackdowns), reducing uncertainty and inviting institutional capital off the sidelines. Initial ETF Impact: The first wave of U.S. spot crypto ETFs – approved in late 2023 and January 2024 – will have been trading for over a year by mid-2025 investopedia.com . Their success is already far exceeding expectations: BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust amassed a record $52 billion AUM in its first year (the biggest ETF launch in history) coindesk.com , and other Bitcoin funds from Fidelity, ARK, and Bitwise quickly joined the top 20 U.S. ETF launches of all time coindesk.com . These products have unleashed pent-up retail and institutional demand by offering a regulated, convenient vehicle for crypto exposure coindesk.com . By summer 2025, ETF inflows are still robust, and many Wall Street analysts expect a second wave of approvals. Indeed, 2025 is being called “the Year of Crypto ETFs” coindesk.com . Observers predict dozens of new funds – including spot Ether, Solana, and XRP ETFs – could win approval under revamped SEC leadership in the post-2024 election environment coindesk.com . If so, late 2025 could see a broad menu of crypto ETF offerings, widening investor access to the asset class. This steady drumbeat of ETF launches and inflows adds a structural source of buy-pressure under crypto markets throughout 2025. (Notably, Bloomberg data showed over $1.7B poured into spot crypto ETFs in just the first week of 2025, on top of 2024’s flows etf.com .) In short, the ETF effect – “shocking the industry to its core” in year one coindesk.com – is set to grow even stronger in 2025, channeling more traditional capital into crypto. U.S. Political Shift (Post-Election): The outcome of the Nov 2024 U.S. elections is a crucial backdrop by mid-2025. A new administration under President Donald Trump took office in January 2025 and immediately signaled a markedly pro-crypto policy stance. Within his first 100 days, Trump’s appointments to key financial agencies (SEC, CFTC, OCC) effectuated a “180° pivot” in crypto regulation from the prior administration cnbc.com . Industry observers describe a sharp policy reversal – where previously the sector faced hostility, now it’s courted as an engine of innovation. President Trump has publicly vowed to be “the first crypto-president,” hosting crypto industry leaders at the White House and promising to boost digital asset adoption reuters.com . He even floated creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve for the United States reuters.com – a striking show of support for Bitcoin’s role as a reserve asset (though it remains to be seen if this materializes). More tangibly, regulatory agencies have begun rolling back onerous rules. For example, the SEC under new leadership scrapped a prior accounting guideline that made bank crypto custody prohibitively expensive reuters.com . And the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has “paved the way” for banks to engage in crypto activities like custody and stablecoin issuance reuters.com . These changes in Washington brighten the outlook for crypto markets: with regulatory uncertainty fading, U.S. institutions feel more confident to participate. In essence, by mid-2025 the world’s largest capital market (the U.S.) is shifting from impeding crypto to embracing it, a narrative change that cannot be overstated in its bullish significance coindesk.com reuters.com . Geopolitical Easing and BRICS Actions: Global macro conditions in summer 2025 may also improve due to geopolitical developments. If major conflicts (like the Russia-Ukraine war) de-escalate or move toward resolution by late 2024 or 2025, it would remove a key source of risk-off sentiment. Lower geopolitical risk and easing of war-driven commodity shocks would help cool inflation (especially energy prices) and bolster global growth – factors that support risk asset rallies (crypto included). On another front, the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa + new members) are continuing their de-dollarization agenda in 2025. At the BRICS summit in October 2024, they discussed creating a new gold-backed reserve currency (“the Unit”) as an alternative to the U.S. dollar investingnews.com . They also announced a BRICS blockchain-based payment network (“BRICS Bridge”) to connect their financial systems via CBDCs, bypassing Western networks investingnews.com . Going into 2025, these initiatives are expected to progress (with Russia currently chairing BRICS). While a full-fledged BRICS currency may be years away (and faces hurdles moderndiplomacy.eu ), the bloc’s move to settle more trade in non-USD currencies is already underway (by 2023, roughly 20% of oil trades were in other currencies) investingnews.com . Implication: A shift toward a more multi-polar currency world could weaken U.S. dollar dominance over time investingnews.com . For crypto, this trend is intriguing – as nations seek dollar alternatives, Bitcoin’s appeal as a neutral, supranational asset may rise. In sanctioned or economically volatile countries, both elites and the public might accelerate adoption of crypto for cross-border value storage. For example, U.S. sanctions on Russia and China have already catalyzed talk of reserve diversification investingnews.com . Fidelity analysts note that “rising inflation, currency debasement and fiscal deficits” globally are making Bitcoin strategically attractive for even nation-states and central banks coindesk.com coindesk.com . Summing up: a backdrop of improving geopolitical stability (if realized) plus a weakening dollar regime provides a bullish macro and narrative case for borderless cryptocurrencies as we enter the second half of 2025. Fall 2025 (Sep–Nov): Institutional Inflows, Adoption & Tech Upgrades Surging Institutional Adoption: By autumn 2025, the cumulative effect of regulatory clarity and market maturation is a wave of institutional adoption unlike any prior cycle. In traditional finance, major U.S. banks and brokers are cautiously but steadily entering the crypto arena. Reuters reports that Wall Street banks are now receiving “green lights” from regulators to expand into crypto services, after years of hesitance reuters.com reuters.com . Many top banks have been internally testing crypto trading and custody via pilot programs reuters.com . As one example, Charles Schwab’s CEO said in May 2025 that regulator signals are “flashing pretty green” for large firms, and confirmed Schwab plans to offer spot crypto trading to clients within a year reuters.com . Banks like BNY Mellon, State Street, and Citigroup – which collectively manage trillions – are expected to roll out crypto custody solutions by 2025, often via partnerships with crypto-native custodians dlnews.com . The OCC has explicitly authorized banks to handle crypto custody and stablecoins (under proper safeguards), removing a key barrier reuters.com . And the SEC’s friendlier stance under new leadership means banks no longer face punitive capital charges for holding digital assets reuters.com . The net effect is that by late 2025, institutional-grade crypto infrastructure is falling into place. More pension funds, endowments, and asset managers can allocate to crypto through familiar channels (regulated custodians, ETFs, prime brokers). Even conservative banking giants are warming up: Bank of America’s CEO stated the bank “will embrace cryptocurrencies for payments if regulations permit” and hinted at possibly launching a BOA stablecoin for settlement reuters.com . Likewise, Fidelity and BlackRock’s crypto units are expanding offerings after seeing outsized demand. This institutional legitimization dramatically expands the pool of potential investors in crypto markets, supporting a higher total market capitalization. Crypto ETF Expansion: In Q4 2025, the roster of crypto-based ETFs and funds is likely to broaden further. As noted, analysts foresee 50+ crypto ETFs by end of 2025 under the pro-industry U.S. regulatory regime coindesk.com . By fall, we may see Ethereum spot ETFs (building on the successful Bitcoin products) and even funds for large-cap altcoins. For instance, Nate Geraci of The ETF Store predicts spot Solana and XRP ETFs are on the horizon in the U.S. coindesk.com . Internationally, Canada and Europe already have multiple crypto ETPs – their continued growth adds to global inflows. With a year of performance history by late ’25, crypto ETFs will likely start seeing allocations from more conservative institutions (insurance firms, corporate treasuries, etc.) that needed to observe initially. Fidelity’s strategists noted that in 2024 much of the ETF buying came from retail and independent advisors, but 2025 could bring uptake from hedge funds, RIAs, and pensions as comfort grows coindesk.com coindesk.com . In summary, fall 2025 should witness accelerating capital inflows via investment vehicles, as crypto solidifies its place in mainstream portfolios. This sustained demand – “2025’s flows will easily surpass 2024’s” according to one strategist coindesk.com – provides a steady bid under crypto asset prices, reinforcing a bullish trend. Nation-State and Sovereign Adoption: A notable development to watch in late 2025 is the entry of nation-states and public institutions into Bitcoin. Fidelity Digital Assets published a report calling 2025 a potential “game changer in terms of bitcoin adoption”, predicting that more nation-states, central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and treasuries will buy BTC as a strategic reserve asset coindesk.com . The rationale is that with rising inflation and heavy debt loads, governments face currency debasement and financial instability, making Bitcoin an attractive hedge coindesk.com . By Q4 2025, we could see early signs of this trend. For example, there are rumors that Russia and Brazil have explored holding Bitcoin reserves fortune.com , and Middle Eastern sovereign funds flush with petrodollars might quietly accumulate crypto as diversification. In the U.S., President Trump and crypto-friendly lawmakers like Senator Cynthia Lummis have openly discussed establishing a U.S. Bitcoin reserve or adding BTC to Treasury holdings coindesk.com . Lummis even introduced a “Bitcoin Reserve” bill in 2024, which if enacted would set a precedent for national adoption coindesk.com . While such bold moves might not happen overnight, even small allocations by governments or central banks would be symbolically massive. It would validate crypto’s role as “digital gold” and potentially ignite FOMO among other nations (a game theory dynamic Fidelity’s report alludes to). Thus by late 2025, any announcements of central banks buying Bitcoin or countries mining/holding crypto (similar to El Salvador’s earlier example) could spur a bullish frenzy. At minimum, the expectation of this “sovereign bid” provides a narrative supporting the market. As Fidelity’s analysts put it: not owning some Bitcoin may soon be seen as a greater risk for governments than owning it coindesk.com . Ethereum & Crypto Tech Upgrades: The latter part of 2025 is also packed with technological catalysts in the crypto sector, which can boost investor optimism. Chief among these is Ethereum’s roadmap milestones. Ethereum core developers plan to deliver major scaling improvements by end-2025 as part of “The Surge” phase bitrue.com . This includes fully rolling out sharding – splitting the blockchain into parallel “shards” – combined with widespread Layer-2 rollups, aiming to increase throughput to 100,000+ transactions per second bitrue.com . If Ethereum achieves this by Q4 2025, it would vastly lower fees and increase capacity, enabling a new wave of decentralized application growth. For users, that means faster, cheaper transactions; for the market, it means Ethereum becomes more valuable as utilization can skyrocket without bottlenecks. Progress is well underway: an intermediate upgrade (EIP-4844 “proto-danksharding”) was implemented earlier to boost Layer-2 efficiency, and the next major upgrade (code-named Pectra) is slated for Q1 2025 focusing on validator improvements and blob data throughput fidelitydigitalassets.com . After that, the final sharding implementation is expected. By late 2025, Ethereum’s evolution – including MEV mitigation (The Scourge) and Verkle trees for lighter nodes (The Verge) – should make the network more scalable, secure, and decentralized bitrue.com . These upgrades are bullish for the ecosystem: a more scalable Ethereum can host more DeFi, NFT, and gaming activity, attracting capital and users from traditional tech. Investors may speculate on ETH demand rising with network activity. Beyond Ethereum, other protocols (Solana, Cardano, Layer-2s like Arbitrum, etc.) also have roadmap milestones during this period, potentially improving their value propositions. Overall, the tech backdrop in late 2025 is one of significant improvement, which supports a positive market outlook – the infrastructure will be ready for mainstream scale just as interest returns. Bitcoin Halving Aftermath: Although the Bitcoin halving took place in April 2024, its bullish impact historically materializes with a lag of 12-18 months. That puts late 2025 into early 2026 right in the window when the post-halving cycle may reach a euphoric phase. By fall 2025, Bitcoin’s supply issuance will have been at half its prior rate for ~18 months, potentially leading to a supply-demand squeeze if demand surges. ARK Invest notes that previous halvings (2012, 2016, 2020) all coincided with the early stages of major bull markets ark-invest.com . Indeed, by Q4 2025 we may see this pattern repeating. ARK’s analysts observed in late 2024 that Bitcoin remained roughly on track with its four-year cycle and expressed “optimism about prospects for the next 6–12 months” following the April 2024 halving ark-invest.com . That optimism appears well-founded if macro conditions and adoption trends align as discussed. By November 2025, Bitcoin could be approaching or exceeding its previous all-time high ( ~$69K from 2021) – some crypto analysts foresee six-figure prices during this cycle. Importantly, a rising Bitcoin tide tends to lift the entire crypto market cap. Late 2025 could see a broad rally across altcoins, often referred to as “altseason,” as new retail and institutional money, emboldened by Bitcoin’s strength, diversifies into higher-beta crypto assets. The expectation of the halving-driven bull cycle can itself become a self-fulfilling sentiment booster: investors position ahead of it, providing additional buy pressure. In summary, fall 2025 is poised to be the crescendo of the Bitcoin halving cycle, with historical analogues (2013, 2017, 2021) suggesting a powerful uptrend in crypto prices. Reduced BTC supply + peak cycle FOMO + all the fundamental drivers (ETF flows, low rates, tech upgrades) make this timeframe particularly conducive to a bullish market cap expansion. Winter 2025–26 (Dec–Feb): Peak Momentum and Continued Tailwinds Bull Market Momentum: Entering winter 2025/26, the crypto market could be in full bull mode. If the above developments play out, total crypto market capitalization may be approaching new highs by late 2025, driven by strong fundamentals and investor FOMO. Historically, the final leg of crypto bull markets sees parabolic gains and surging liquidity inflows. We might witness that in Dec 2025 – Feb 2026: exuberant sentiment, mainstream media coverage of Bitcoin “breaking records,” and increased retail participation. Unlike the 2017 and 2021 peaks, however, this cycle has far greater institutional involvement, which could imply more sustainable capital inflows (and possibly a larger magnitude of inflows). Key macro factors are likely to remain supportive through early 2026: central banks that began easing in 2024-25 may continue to hold rates low or even consider renewed asset purchases if economies are soft. For instance, if a mild U.S. recession hits in late 2025, the Fed and peers could respond with quantitative easing or liquidity facilities, effectively “printing” money that often finds its way into asset markets, including crypto nasdaq.com . China’s PBoC could also inject stimulus to boost growth, adding to global liquidity. Such actions would prolong the “risk-on” environment into 2026, delaying any end to the crypto uptrend. Additionally, global equity markets are projected to be strong in this scenario (buoyed by low rates and easing geopolitical tensions), and crypto’s correlation with equities means a rising stock tide lifts crypto too – as was observed in May 2025 when stock rallies coincided with BTC and ETH jumps blockchain.news blockchain.news . Investor Sentiment and Retail Revival: By early 2026, investor sentiment toward crypto could be the most bullish since 2021. With clear regulatory frameworks, high-profile endorsements (even governments buying in), and tech narratives (Web3, AI+blockchain, etc.), the stage is set for a positive feedback loop. Retail investors who largely sat out during the harsh 2022–23 bear market may fully return, spurred by “fear of missing out” as they see Bitcoin and popular altcoins climbing. This broadening of participation (from hedge funds down to everyday investors globally) increases market breadth and can drive total market cap to climactic heights. Notably, the availability of user-friendly investment onramps – e.g. spot crypto ETFs through any brokerage, crypto offerings integrated in fintech apps and banks – makes it much easier for average investors to allocate to crypto in 2025-26 than in past cycles. The removal of friction means inflows can ramp up faster and larger. Social media and pop culture hype also tend to peak in late-stage bulls; we might see Bitcoin and Ethereum becoming water-cooler talk again, drawing in new demographics. All of this contributes to strong sentiment and capital inflows in winter 2025/26, reinforcing the bullish outlook. Continued Policy and Geopolitical Tailwinds: The policy landscape is expected to remain a tailwind into 2026. In the U.S., if the pro-crypto Trump administration stays aligned with its promises, we could see additional positive actions: perhaps tax clarity for digital assets, streamlined ETF approvals for more crypto categories, or even federal guidelines for banks to hold crypto on balance sheets. Such steps would further normalize crypto within the financial system. Regulatory coordination internationally might also improve – for example, G20 nations in 2025 have been working on a global crypto reporting framework and stablecoin standards, which, once implemented, reduce the risk of harsh crackdowns in any major economy. On the geopolitical front, the BRICS de-dollarization efforts might bear first fruit by 2026, such as increased trade settled in yuan, gold, or even Bitcoin. If Saudi Arabia (a new BRICS invitee) starts pricing some oil in non-USD, that could weaken dollar liquidity at the margins, and some of that displaced value might flow to alternative stores like crypto or gold. Additionally, by 2026 the world will be looking ahead to the next U.S. Presidential election cycle (2028) – typically, in the lead-up, administrations prefer supportive economic conditions. This could mean fiscal stimulus or at least no new financial regulations that rock markets, implying a benign policy environment for risk assets. In Europe, 2026 will see MiCA fully operational and possibly updated with new provisions for DeFi and NFTs, further integrating the crypto market. In sum, early 2026 should carry forward many of 2025’s positive drivers – ample liquidity, regulatory support, and growing mainstream acceptance – giving little reason to suspect an abrupt end to the bullish trend during this window. Bitcoin Halving Cycle Peak: If history rhymes, the crypto market might reach a cycle peak somewhere around late 2025 or early 2026. Past bull cycles (2013, 2017, 2021) peaked roughly 12-18 months after the halving; a similar timeframe would put a possible top in the Dec 2025 – Feb 2026 period. That could mean Bitcoin at unprecedented price levels and total crypto market cap in multi-trillions, barring any unforeseen shocks. ARK Invest’s analysis as of late 2024 remained optimistic that Bitcoin was “in sync with historical cycles” and poised for strong performance into 2025 ark-invest.com . By early 2026, those cycle dynamics (diminished new supply vs. surging demand) might reach a crescendo. One metric to watch is the stock-to-flow or issuance rate – post-halving Bitcoin’s inflation rate is below 1%, lower than gold’s, which can drive the digital gold narrative to its zenith at this point. Moreover, Ethereum’s upcoming transition to a deflationary issuance (with EIP-1559 fee burns and Proof-of-Stake) means ETH could also be seeing declining supply into 2026, potentially amplifying its price if demand spikes. Thus, both of the top crypto assets would have increasing scarcity dynamics during the period when interest is highest – a recipe for a dramatic run-up. Importantly, capital rotations within crypto during peak phases often send smaller altcoins skyrocketing (as investors seek outsized gains), temporarily boosting total market cap beyond just Bitcoin’s contribution. All told, the early 2026 period could represent the euphoric apex of this cycle’s bull market, supported by solid macro and fundamental fuel laid in the preceding months. Even if volatility will be high, the overall outlook through February 2026 remains strongly bullish for crypto’s total market capitalization, given the confluence of loose monetary conditions, favorable policy shifts, geopolitical diversification into crypto, institutional FOMO, and major network upgrades powering the narrative. ✨ Philosophical Reflection In the ever-unfolding rhythm of cycles—accumulation, expansion, distribution, and reset—crypto mirrors the deeper architecture of nature and consciousness. Just as seeds lie dormant in winter awaiting the kiss of spring, so too does capital bide its time in the shadows before surging into momentum. The Fibonacci spirals found in shells, storms, and galaxies reappear in price action—offering not just numbers, but a language of emergence. What we witness in the TOTAL market cap is not just a breakout—it is a reawakening. A collective pulse of belief, liquidity, and intention. In this confluence of technical geometry and macroeconomic tides, the market becomes more than price—it becomes a story, a symbol, a signal. We don’t just analyze this chart—we read it like a sacred map, charting the ascent of value, vision, and velocity.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by BitonGroup
The Entire (TOTAL) Cryptocurrency Market BullishNotice the blue dotted line on the char, this is a classic, I drew it 11 days ago. It is based on resistance and support. In this case, support. 11 days and what happens? This level continues to be challenged as support and holds. TOTAL moved below it for a brief moment, just one day, just to recover the next day. Now, TOTAL is trading above and going full green. Yesterday, there was a long lower wick and a recovery. Today, green again. This is it! This is all you need to see. This is bullish confirmed. Support is being tested over and over and it holds. The fact that support holds means that the bears lost the battle of depressing the market, the bears lost. The bears losing means the bulls won. Bulls winning means we won. We winning means prices are going up. Prices going up means we are about to get paid on every single position that we opened and bought in the last few months. Boom! The entire (TOTAL) Cryptocurrency market is set to grow. This is the best possible ever. This is it. Bitcoin is about to hit a new All-Time High, and the Altcoins will ALL grow 2-3 digits, within a single day. When you take the entire 6 months expected of bullish action, we are going to see 4 digits growth for a large portion of the market. Something not seen by many before. It will be wild, it will be huge, it will be awesome. Thanks a lot for the follow and for your continued support. Namaste.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by MasterAnanda
1
$TOTAL – Is This Another Bull Trap in the Making?The total crypto market cap ( CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL ) has surged from $2.32T and is currently trading around $3.25T, continuing its upward trajectory. On the surface, things look bullish—but is there more to the story? Looking at the chart, the current market structure bears a striking resemblance to previous cycles: • 2021: Massive bull run • 2022: Painful bull trap • 2024: Another explosive rally • 2025: …potential bull trap? If history is any guide, we could be nearing a critical turning point. The pattern suggests caution—could this rally be setting up for another steep correction? My Take: Momentum is strong, but the similarities to past cycles are too close to ignore. If the market stalls at current levels, the risk of a bull trap becomes very real. What do you think—repeat of history or a new chapter for crypto? Please support this idea with a LIKE👍 if you find it useful🥳 Happy Trading💰🥳🤗
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALShort
by PetrockTheAnalyst
$TOTAL Crypto Market Cap Massive Weekly Close Above 20WMA Massive Weekly Close for the CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL Crypto Market Cap above the .618 Fib and previous cycle's ATH. RSI still has room to push higher to retest this cycle's ATH. Price also closed above the 20WMA, which was the signal for the +70% Nov '24 Trump Pump 🚀 UpOnly Season for every coin only happens when the TOTAL Market Cap goes HIGHER. Otherwise we are stuck in a rotational cycle, where money from one narrative pumps then moves onto the next ie RWA, DePin, AI, Memes etc
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by jonnieking
Crypto Markets: “Sell in May, and Go Away” — What Does It MeanThe historical pattern known as the “Sell in May, and Go Away” seasonal divergence was popularized by the Stock Trader’s Almanac, which stated that investing in stocks represented by the Dow Jones Industrial Average from November to April and switching to fixed income for the other six months “has delivered reliable returns with reduced risk since 1950.” What is “Sell in May, and Go Away”? “Sell in May, and Go Away” is a well-known saying in finance. It is based on the historical underperformance of stocks over the six-month period from May to October. According to Fidelity Investments, the divergence has been most pronounced in recent years, with the S&P 500 (SPX) gaining an average of about 2% from May to October from 1990 onwards over the next 30 years, compared with an average of about 7% from November to April. The Halloween Indicator, 'Sell in May and Go Away': Everywhere and All the Time*, a research paper examining stock markets outside the US, found the same pattern, calling the seasonal divergence trend "surprisingly resilient." Key Takeaways 👉 "Sell in May and go away" is a saying that refers to the historically weaker performance of financial markets from May to October compared to the other half of the year. 👉 Investors can try to capitalize on this pattern by switching to less risky assets from May to October, based on historical data. Seasonality in investment flows may persist as a result of year-end bonuses from the financial industry and businesses, perhaps helped by the mid-April deadline for filing U.S. income tax returns. Whatever the underlying fundamentals, the historical pattern was made more pronounced by the October stock market crashes of 1987 and 2008. Final Points 👉 The problem with historical patterns is that they do not reliably predict the future. This is especially true for well-known historical patterns. If enough people became convinced that the “Sell in May and Walk Away” pattern would persist, it would essentially begin to disappear immediately. All the early sellers would try to sell in April and bid against each other to buy back the assets before everyone else in October. 👉 At the same time, certain considerations regarding the development of geopolitical events in the period from May to October 2025 reasonably give reason to think about the prospects of such a scenario for the next 6 months. * The Halloween Indicator, 'Sell in May and Go Away': Everywhere and All the Time >> Ben Jacobsen Tilburg University - TIAS School for Business and Society; Massey University >> Cherry Yi Zhang. Nottingham University Business School China; Massey University - School of Economics and Finance. -- Best wishes, @PandorraResearch Team 😎
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by PandorraResearch
1
Altcoins Trading Strategy (Tips)There are many ways to approach the market, many ways to approach Crypto. There are strategies focused on the long-term while others will focus on the short-term. Know this, the market is set to grow very strongly. Now, you might be conditioned to take certain actions or have a reaction when something happens due to past history. Say you went through the strong 2022 bear market and then within the transition years, 2023 and 2024 and all the way through mid-2025, each time there was some bullish action it invariably ended in a strong correction. So you might be thinking, "Hey, after some growth it is all going to crash!" But no, that is not what is going to happen. You see, the market moves in cycles and these cycles are four years long. Regardless of the transition period, now is not the time to be taking profits after a 20%-30% bullish jump, which is minimum for Crypto. Yes, you can approach the market short-term but short-term with the conditions we have present now means 200-300%. That would be short-term. After this much growth, close a trade and move to the next pair. If you are thinking long-term; less dealing, less clicking, easy profits no stress, then buy and hold. The top will be very clear once it comes. If not clear, you will see your profits grow some 500% to 800% and in some cases even more. When your capital is up by that much, you can consider taking some profits. Remember another one, keep this one in mind. You don't have to be 100% right. If you are uncertain if you should secure profits in the coming months, you can always sell just a portion, can be 10% or 20% and wait to see what the market does next. It is not necessary to close a position by 100% thinking "I got the top." Another one, "near the top," is something to keep in mind. Not the exact top just as we don't need to catch the exact bottom. This can result in stress, anxiety and losses. Just be happy and grateful with whatever you receive. To close this one, never use a stop-loss when trading spot, never. It is a recipe for disaster, just buy and hold and the market will bless you with money, peace of mind, financial success and love. If you set a stop-loss order, the whales and trading bots will fill your order and you will secure a losing trade. Rather than putting a sell order below your entry price, put it above, always high up, the higher the better, because the exchanges bots are programmed based on the sell orders that people place. If everybody places their orders really high up, this creates pressure on the programs to buy more and more and more. The higher the resistance zone (your sell orders), the more the market will grow. When the time for shakeouts and corrections comes, do nothing. Either sell BEFORE the correction happens or be prepared to wait long-term. You have to plan BEFORE, not out of an impulse, because the impulse will push you to make mistakes. I am wishing you success and profits. If you enjoy the content, consider giving a follow and leaving a comment. Namaste.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by MasterAnanda
14
Altcoin Market (OTHERS) Cycle Analysis: To the Moon !Let’s take a closer look at the previous bull cycle of the Others (Altcoin Market Cap excluding BTC & ETH) chart. Before the major upward move, the market declined for months, eventually finding strong support around the $170B level. After forming a higher low and a clear change of character (CHOCH), the market entered a sustained bullish phase. For 124 consecutive days, we witnessed a strong altcoin rally. As of now, price action appears to be mirroring that same structure — but with a potential to push even higher than the previous ATH. In this scenario, the target stands around the $470B level. As long as OTHERS holds above the $170B support, the altcoin market remains in recovery mode, and further upside is very much on the table. — Thanks for reading.
CRYPTOCAP:OTHERSLong
by vs_sayin
5
Total Market Cap Weekly Chart: Ready to Explode?Hey traders! Let’s dive into this weekly TOTAL Crypto Market Cap chart. The headline says it all— Total Market Cap Is About to Explode , and we’re here to break it down! We’re seeing a massive expanding triangle formation, with the market cap currently at 3.21T , right at retest of triangle resistance. Historically, these patterns have led to parabolic moves — check out the 2019 - 2020 breakout! If history repeats, a breakout could send the market cap soaring toward 8.0T or even higher! However, if the breakout fails, we might see a pullback to the previous level of support around 2T . Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: 3.66T (ATH) Support: 2T Breakout Target: 8.1T+ Breakdown Risk: 1.20T (latest strong resistance below 2.6T) Is the market cap about to go parabolic, or are we in for a fakeout? Let’s hear your thoughts below!
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by ArShevelev
Crypto Total Market Cap. Simple Signals (New All-Time High Soon)On April 22 TOTAL moved above its 3-Feb. low after trading below this level for some 50 days. Moving above this low is a major bullish development. A very strong yet simple signal. On April 22 TOTAL moved above and two days later, on the 24, this level was tested as support and holds. The session ended with long lower wick. The candle 30-April produced a higher low compared to 3-Feb. and this is a major bullish signal. This one here reveals that TOTAL is set to challenge the next major resistance point. This is all happening with a very strong RSI. The strong RSI is another simple signal and cannot be denied. TOTAL is now moving towards a new All-Time High, and this ATH will happen very soon, likely mid-term (within 3 months). The next resistance after the advance that will happen in the coming days will happen around 3.25T. This is a mild resistance and should break after some bullish pressure. This will be followed by a challenge of the previous ATH as resistance. It will be pierced right away through a wick and then a new price discovery session will develop. » The entire Cryptocurrency market is bullish right now and set to grow. The grow is already happening since early April. Thanks a lot for your continued support. Namaste.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by MasterAnanda
2
$TOTAL Crypto Market Cap BULL TRAP AlertBULL TRAP 🚨 New money has been coming into the market as shown on the Crypto CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL Market Cap, hence why you haven’t seen “rotations” in coins, but it appears to be drying up. There’s been major resistance at the 200DMA, which is just below the previous ATH at $3T, and PA is being squeezed between the 9DMA. Combine this with a heated RSI, it appears to be a bear flag in the making. The trendline from Oct. ’23 gives confluence with the 50DMA as support. *The only savior I see at this point is price smashing through the 200DMA and flipping support into the green accumulation box. Regardless, this move is coming to an end later this week to test support or breakout. Again, I’ll reconfirm my stance that this is the most obvious bull trap I’ve seen all cycle. Although I hope to be wrong 🥲 Having said that, after support is confirmed on the move, we are going to VALHALLA 🚀 Bookmark this 🤓
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALShort
by jonnieking
Altcoins, Crypto is different since institutions came inHow long have we been saying this? Yet the masses have not grasped this concept. Neother have influencers. But that makes sense because they need clicks to survive. People tend to "graze" where pasture seems greener, even if it isn't. CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL 3 = NO CRYPTOCAP:BTC or CRYPTOCAP:ETH Altcoins have been in a steady incline since Nov 23. Daily The last 2 consolidation phases lasted AROUND 6 months, depending on where you begin the consolidation phase. Weekly Not important going further as Crypto landscape has changed & the back data is irrelevant. However, let's be nosey & see how it looks in comparison.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3Long
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Altcoin Market Update – April 24, 2025As of today, the TOTAL3 Index (excluding BTC & ETH) offers key insights into the altcoin market: ⸻ Technical Overview: • 1D: -1.54% → Minor pullback • 1W: +6.37% → Bullish momentum • 1M: -4.14% → Mid-term correction • 6M: +32.94% → Strong growth #TOTAL3 remains above $790B, a critical support. Holding this level is vital for future altcoin rally targets like $1.16T and beyond. Bullish divergence on the TOTAL3/BTC chart hints at altcoins gaining strength over BTC. ⸻ Fundamentals: • The global crypto market cap is $3.03T • BTC & ETH dominate, but TOTAL3 reflects altcoin potential ⸻ Summary: Altcoin market remains optimistic, with solid long-term signals. Keep an eye on support zones and momentum indicators for your trading strategy.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3Long
by sorooshx
The 4 Crypto Market Cap charts and SMA's comparedTop Left TOTAL CRYPTO MARKET CAP Top Right TOTAL 2 CRYPTO MARKET CAP ( Minus Bitcoin ) Bottom Left TOTAL 3 CRYPTO MARKET CAP ( Minus BTC and ETH ) Bottom Right OTHERS CRYPTO MARKET CAP ( Top 125 coins Minus Top 10 by dominance ) 50 SMA RED 100 SMA BLUE 128 SMA GREEN TOTAL Cap is the ONLY one that has broken above the 2021 ATH and has subsequently dropped back under but is still "touching the line" with a Wick up from the current candle. It can also be seen how it is only the TOTAL chart that has remained easily above the 50 SMA since late 2023. The toer charts can be seen to have needed to bounce of it in 2024 The TOTAL 2 & 3 charts have very similar Candle moves and 50 SMA use. To me, this is telling us about the Higher Cap ALT coins. The fact that both TOTAL 2 ( Minus BTC ) and TOTAL 3 ( Minus BTC and ETH ) are similar shows me the little impact of ETH on price rise. These Charts are held up by the Higher ALT coins like SOL, INJ, SUI, XCN, HBAR to name a few. Most of these are still less than 100% gains over the last 12 months. But what the slight Difference there is between the two charts does show us that ETH is a burden. It is dragging the TOTAL 2 chart down lwoer than the TOTAL 3 and that difference, though small on a monthly chart, is VERY SIGNIFICANT OTHERS tells a huge story of how the Mid to Lower Caps are paying the price of Bitcoins adoption by Corporations and the fact that, as a result of these Corporations HOLDING, Bitcoin Dominance remaining High. The money that has once been used to Feed the ALT Market is static. OTHERS is also the only chart that has fallen below its own 50SMA That is not Bullish and very clearly shows how the Crypto Market has now matured and the absolute Tidal wave of New, worthless, useless ALT coins are failing. This does not mean that will continue but I am inclined to believe that while we have such uncertainty in the world, the utter risk of investing in something with no use or history and security does not appeal to many. To many extents, this could be seen as the beginning of the " Dot Com" Bubble burst for Crypto, where the best Coins / Projects are adopted and the rest, well, fall aside...... We shall see
CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS
by Orriginal
USDT Dominance Update (1H)First, it’s important to remember that USDT Dominance (USDT.D) tends to move inversely with the market. In simple terms: — If USDT.D rises, the crypto market usually drops. — If USDT.D falls, the market typically rallies. On the lower timeframes, USDT.D has broken out of a descending wedge formation, which is generally considered bullish. Additionally, a double bottom pattern appears to be forming and is on the verge of breaking out to the upside. Taking all of this into account, USDT.D could potentially rise toward the 5.81% level — suggesting that the broader crypto market may experience a short-term correction. This outlook also aligns with one of my recent Bitcoin analyses. Be sure to check my latest Bitcoin breakdown to understand where the market might be headed next. — Thanks for reading.
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D
by vs_sayin
Starts Late, Ends Late: 2026 Bull Market?Market conditions are so different now. Everything is changing fast and radically, it has to do with the stars. The way the stars are aligned now has not happened in hundreds of years. The type changes we are seeing now have not happened in hundreds of years. It is not only the financial markets but the whole world and the way we perceive reality is changing in so many ways. This is certain to have its effect on the Cryptocurrency market, the effect is already present and tangible, market conditions (reality) will never be the same. The bull market is starting late. By this date in 2021, everything was up and up really strong. Some pairs had already peaked, literally, some altcoin trading pairs had already peaked by April 2021. The full cycle complete. Thousands of percentages of points of growth. What about now? It is April 2025 and the bottom is in on many pairs. Only last week, 7-April, we had a marketwide bottom. The start of the 2025 bull market cycle and phase. A late start can translate into a late end. Now, a full bullish cycle can be completed in 6 months. This is not necessary nor required. Also, the market is much bigger now, it wouldn't be feasible, there would be too much rush. Think of the market as an entity that wants to survive, thrive, live and grow. Can it go through years of bearish action and only produce several months of growth? Balance is needed. The market needs a bullish cycle to keep the participants engaged or else everybody will quit forever if there is nothing to gain. The fact that the Altcoins market hit bottom is the most bullish signal there is, but, looking at all these charts, hundreds of charts, something tells me that what is coming will be different to the past. Actually, it will be similar because the last bull market happened from March 2020 through late 2021. So we can have a bull market from April 2025 until some time in 2026. I just don't believe that everything will end too fast, within six months, because we are having a late start. It will be the other way around, the bull market will extend. Instead of Cryptocurrency growing for 1 year, we might get continued growth for 2-3 years straight, maybe more for some pairs. Some pairs have been dropping for 4 years while others have been down for 6 years or more. When things change, these pairs will be experiencing sustained long-term growth. Other pairs grew strong and never moved below support. These pair were supposed to drop according to classic past patterns and yet, they all remained strong and ready for more. This bull market will be out of the ordinary. Everything that is happening right now in finance and politics is not the same as always, it is a true generational change. We are going through a phase of evolution and this is what will cause the bull market to extend. Late start, late end. Namaste.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by MasterAnanda
bitcoin dips below 60kbitcoin dips below 60k, but we're unfazed. i see this playing out as we move into the depths of winter,,, this crypto winter ❄️ why would this happen, you ask? the answer is simple: a stop-loss raid. a sharp wave 4 designed to shake out weak hands. distribution may have already started, hypothetically speaking, but it'll take the rest of the year to unfold. think of it like the jan 2021 -> april 2021 vibe, only on a slightly higher degree and timeframe. --- take note of the highlighted wave 2's and wave 4's on my chart. what i'm illustrating is "the law of alternation," which states: if wave 2 is flat, wave 4 will be sharp, and vice versa. all the wave 2's in this cycle have been flats, so by design, all of our wave 4's are set to be sharps. this fits neatly into the larger cycle: sharp retracements triggered by over-leveraged positions, yet consistently bought up thanks to strong demand. with each sharp retracement, however, the upward moves become smaller, as momentum gradually fades. --- w4 target: below 60k w5 target: between 150k-200k (conservatively). --- ps. i have recently shared a much more bullish idea via:
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by notoriousbids
13
Crypto Market Cap: Short-Term Pullback Before Major RecoveryTechnical Analysis The chart illustrates a well-defined ascending channel for the total crypto market cap (excluding BTC), currently experiencing a downward retracement. The price action suggests a probable dip towards the lower boundary of the channel around the $969 billion support zone before rebounding significantly. This level aligns with previous price reactions and serves as a strong demand zone, making it a potential bottom before the market resumes its uptrend. Fundamental Analysis Liquidity Flow & Market Sentiment The broader market has seen increasing stablecoin dominance (such as USDT’s market cap exceeding $130 billion), indicating risk-off behavior as investors move to safety. This suggests a short-term sell-off in altcoins before a reinvestment phase. Institutional inflows into ETFs (like Ethereum and broader crypto ETFs) will likely drive the next bullish wave, but the current correction reflects temporary uncertainty. Macroeconomic Factors Interest Rate Policies: If the Federal Reserve signals rate cuts in mid-2025, risk assets (including crypto) will likely benefit from increased liquidity. Regulatory Clarity: The market is awaiting key regulatory developments, especially in the U.S. and EU, which could influence capital inflows into crypto. Altcoin Cycle & Market Recovery Historically, the crypto market experiences phases of correction before a strong recovery. With the next Bitcoin halving approaching (April 2025), the overall crypto market cap is expected to rebound as bullish momentum returns. DeFi, gaming, and AI-based tokens continue to gain traction, setting the stage for an altcoin-driven rally once risk appetite returns. Conclusion A short-term pullback to the $969 billion support level is highly probable, after which a strong bullish reversal is expected. Long-term investors might see this dip as a buying opportunity, anticipating a rally towards the upper boundary of the channel (above $2 trillion) as macroeconomic and institutional factors align in favor of crypto.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2
by melikatrader94
19
HOW IS CRYPTO SHAPING UP?Trump and tariffs have a firm grip on the economic world as of late, so where does that leave the crypto market? TOTAL has a clear structure since the beginning of the bull market in 2023, in the last 3 days TOTAL has wicked into the bullish trendline support but sits within a bearish trend channel. This level also coincides with the bullish orderblock that started the leg up post US election so a very strong level of support here. Do I think this is the end and the bottom is in? The chart would make a very good case for it however I believe that the Geo-politics outweigh Technical Analysis currently, at least in the short term. Everyone is watching for the latest news release/Trump announcement and all the time that is going on the market is very reactionary with less passive orders and more reactionary news based market orders. That taken into account in the short term this is a game of musical chairs with massive volatility swings and liquidations left right and center, a traders dream. I'm very interested in how the FED will react to this, once we start getting emergency or early interest rate cuts that for me is when BTC will take the next step up and will flip to an investor/buy and hold environment, whether that's from here, lower or higher I'm not sure but but BTC needs a risk-on environment to thrive and Trump is doing his best to force J Powells hand.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by ProR35
1