🚨 Bear Flag in TOTAL / 2nd leg down likely / H4About 25% sold off in TOTAL market cap so bearish momentum.
Strong legs usually have 2nd leg, so here we expect 2nd leg down to formed.
Key levels are marked up as trading zones.
As long as price is below 2.38-2.40 I see the general momentum bearish and look for lower prices.
If price keeps falling, lower support level 1.81-1.86 will be bears target.
Market is where we have so many possibilities so bull BO of this bull channel has 25% chance !
If bulls get out of channel and consolidate above the mentioned resistance ( 2.38-2.40 ), next target for bulls will be 2.65.
**This is not an investment advice. Your capital might be at risk.**
Give me your idea on comments...
Good Luck...
Total
TOTAL - Tells The Whole Story!I usually keep an eye on TOTAL to get a feeling about the overall crypto market bias. Just like I keep an eye on DXY when it comes to Forex.
From a long-term perspective, the WEEKLY chart on the right, we all agree that we are still overall bullish.
Technically we are trading inside that big brown channel, and we are currently in a correction phase after rejecting the upper bound / brown trendline and 3T round number.
From a medium-term perspective, the DAILY chart on the left, we had a classic higher high, followed by a lower high, and then a break of the previous low. A classic market structure pattern, known as Head&Shoulders.
After breaking below the head and shoulders neckline, marked in gray, the bears took over and TOTAL started trading inside the red channel, making lower highs and lower lows.
That being said, we know that we are overall bearish, but what are the possible scenarios?
Scenario 1: Projection in Purple
A movement till the lower bound / brown trendline and green support zone is expected before the bulls take over by breaking above the red channel.
Scenario 2: Projection in Blue
A sudden shift in momentum, by an aggressive movement from here to break above the gray zone again, invalidating the red channel, signaling that the bulls are taking full control again.
Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen? and Why?
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
The Roadmap to Bitcoin and the NASDAQ 100 My observations:
The 10-year Treasury bond is a leading indicator to show where smart money hedges its bets. The 10-year treasury bond is also perfectly correlated to Bitcoin. When this moves up, Bitcoin goes up. When this moves down, Bitcoin goes down. The NASDAQ 100 on the other hand has a lagging inverse correlation to the 10-year Treasury bond. The 10-year Treasury bond is currently taking the shape of an inverse head and shoulders and also is in an uptrend. We also have the Federal Reserve possibly tapering and hiking interest rates in the near term. The likely situation is that interest rates move higher from here.
The prediction:
What I am seeing in this scenario is that the 10-year bond moves up to the multi-year resistance zone which ultimately means that Bitcoin has 1 last leg up before a leveraged blow-off top scenario. This will also coincide with these events while they unravel, the stock market is currently in its A-B-C correction wave. After this point, it is likely that the 10-year Treasury bond will be rejected off the multi-year resistance and nose-dive south. This is when Bitcoin will start its massive correction and the Bitcoin dominance will fall off a cliff resulting in a massive Alt Season. During this time while interest rates go down, the stock market will then move to higher highs and there will be potentially some catalyst to bring it down to one synchronised dance.
My points to support this theory:
* Bitcoin is still in an uptrend.
* The Fed is anticipating interest rates to rise and taper, which is a real possibility.
* The 10-year bond is taking the shape of an inverse head and shoulders and is currently in an uptrend.
In summary:
There is currently a lot of fear in the markets and what I think is happening is that the big players are tax-loss harvesting risk-on assets, hence why the DXY has been gaining superior strength. This ultimately drives the risk on asset prices lower changing the sentiment of the market to bearish. In the New Year of 2022, smart money can re-buy back risk on assets at a cheaper price to give them a headstart to 2022.
Crypto Market TotalExpecting this support area to hold to carry the market above 3.5T. If it fails, we will be in a longer consolidation phase and I expect alts to bleed. So please hold :)
Technically following week should get the momentum to oversold territory and get ready for the next leg up, its already printing a hidden bullish div but this is only speculation and momentum usually is not a reliable indicator in total market caps.
Good luck!
X Mas Rally Around the Corner? Not so fast..1 minute ago
I think I'm onto something that shows a clear map of what could possibly happen in the Equity and Crypto Markets.
We are at a pivotal point for the stock market and crypto and the writing is on the wall.
Currently, BTC is losing steam and broke a major support line in the last couple of days.
Equity markets have bounced but could be in a B wave for a C potential leg lower
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On the Horizon-
We have 2 realistic negative catalysts in the near term to close out the year which could be narratives for markets to go lower.
*COVID 2.0
*Inflation Taper from the Fed on the 13th December (This could cause a sudden reaction or this could already be baked into the price)
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-Now we can clearly see that there is a correlation between the US equity market and the total cryptocurrency market along with the US dollar .
- Retail investors in the stock market are expecting a Xmas rally and the Retail crowd in the Crypto community are expecting a 100k Bitcoin by year-end...
-I personally think that this sheep psychology has been too predictable for retail investors and this possibly could be a bull trap. The financial elites are indirectly using sentiment and Youtubers and Influencers are simply puppets to influence retail to buy the dip and HODL.
-You can tell that the big players and smart money have been exiting high growth equities and crypto as the US dollar has been gaining superior strength lately...
-This could be a huge opportunity for the institutions and big players to dump their bags on retail with all the liquidity that is created. They can close out the financial year with insane profits from 2021 and create tax-loss harvesting offsets by selling their risky investments. They could rock the entire markets changing the whole sentiment to be bearish then re-buy back into equities and crypto at cheaper prices in the new year for a great run to head start to the year in 2022. Not to mention Chinese New Year in Feb 1st 2022
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One reason I know why crypto hasn't run out of steam just yet...
-There hasn't been an ALTCOIN season yet. BTC .D needs to drop
-US dollar has to eventually reverse
-BTC hasn't made a parabolic advance yet after long periods of consolidation. We are almost missing the last 5th way in the Eliott wave cycle
MarketCap - Still Early!! (Rapid Increase) An idea using mainly the True Strength Indicator, which shows an evident two comparable points, we are at a point of continuation.
Using the Log trend indicator it shows a slow period of increase (which we are in) and then a greatly more rapid one, which we are on the brink of
Lets see how it plays out
Linking some relevant charts
Crypto TOTAL MarketCap PredictionIn this technical analysis, I looked at the Crypto TOTAL MarketCap chart to determine its future targets.
If we consider the starting point of Gann Box Tool on October 1, 2015 and the point of 0.236 in January 2018, we see that the point of 0.382 in April 2019 indicates the beginning of the uptrend. After that, we started a time correction until we reached the point of 0.5 in March 2020 and until the end of the point of 0.618, which coincides with the date of April 2021, we saw a strong uptrend.
Then we had a price correction that lasted until July 20, 2021, and after that we saw the price grow to the previous ATH.
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For the coming months, I expect the index to reach the internal 0.618 gann box range after a short-term correction above 1.9 trillion, which is in March 2022.
After that, I expect the index to grow to 4 or 7 or 11 Trillion dollar, which is in the second half of 2022.
A long-term target for 2025 to 2027 is also available, around 29 trillion dollar, set by Fibonacci at level 1.618.
TOTAL | H8 | Technical AnalysisRally or Bear season? Yes both! The market fell from 3 trillion to 1.930 trillion, there are still those who don't call it bear season! How long will this bear season last? If it goes down very fast, and it goes down to 1,800 trillion, this bear season may be over by February! However, we are currently in decline!
Total Crypto MKTCAP UpdateI've spent the last few days off of the charts. However, to make sure everything was still intact, I had to analyze.
In conclusion, total MA hasn't dipped below key levels of support and trend is still intact, RSI looks like it has bottomed and the MA is trending towards a bottom on total MKTCAP graphs. Full send soon...
Crypto Total MC Pattern/Warning, Dec 6This is Crypto Total Market Cap analysis, This will affect the whole market
Price is moving in a uptrend channel , right now price is at the bottom of this channel and also a rising wedge pattern is formed in the chart.
Its so important to wait till you see what will happen here
Red scenario: If it breaks the pattern (and also bottom of the channel) then sell because the market will be dumped
Green scenario: If it showed support then buy and invest
BTC forming an ending diagonal ?I've long held to the theory, that the 2011-2013 BTC bull run is equivalent to the 2015-2021(22) bull run.
So my fibonacci lines are from 2015 low to 2018 high.
I suspect BTC is forming an ending diagonal. In addition, I would not be surprised to see BTC do a throwover for the final wave 5 of the ending diagonal to nail the 4.236 fib of years 2015-2022 bull run cycle.
This would fit very well with the current curve trend of BTC on a log graph.
If you are a trend line person, I might as well throw this in there.
**TOTAL**
Now let's look at TOTAL. If you hold that the bull cycle is from 2018 to 2021, then yes TOTAL has touched the 4.236 fib.
But, if the cycle is from 2015-2022, then it has not touched the 4.236 fib. TOTAL has one more push to go. It would also form an ending diagonal.
But, unlike BTC that would NOT require a throwover to touch exactly the 4.236 fib, TOTAL would easily touch the 4.326 fib with an ending diagonal
**TOTAL3** (TOTAL - BTC - ETC)
TOTAL3 doesn't have a history since 2015, so I can't do a fibonacci. But, it is forming the same ending diagonal pattern.
It might possibly do a throwover, but I wouldn't bet the bank on it.
Was Dan Pena right??? Are we going to 0 ??? :OAfter crashing down 1.8T Total crypto market cap i think we will recover over the next days and reach around 2.4T again before a final sell off event that will end this "bull run".
It was a nice time and i hope you all realised some profit! But now fun is over and i see you all Monday 8a.m at Burger King for work again!
Altcoin Market UpdateAn update for the altcoin market including (TOTAL2, and OTHERS)
As you can see, on the left, we are still in a very good spot for bullish action
Current price can be seen to be very similar to the early days of TOTAL2, providing a nice comparison
On the right, the OTHERS chart, also provides similarities to the earlier bull run, and suggests we are heading higher.
0.618 was a previous point of rejection during this massive bull run. If 1.618 is hit this will likely act as a rejection point as well.
UP!
DXY Channel Overshoot / Total Divergence / Good for CryptoUS Dollar Index in daily timeframe has reached its bull channel line. Remember that we expect channel overshoots to be reversed in 5 candles, just like here.
DXY reversed down and went back to the channel in fifth candle. Another tips is that one side overshoot can cause the other side overshoot.
For example here we have a channel line overshoot so we may have a bull trendline overshoot in DXY sell off. Highlighted zone ( Gold, 94.5 - 94.3 ) is where we may have some bounce so be careful.
Closing daily candle below 20 MA can cause price fall down to the bullish trend line ( Bottom of Channel ).
TOTAL crypto currencies market cap index created falling WG in H4 timeframe.
3nd pushed down through this WG created a divergence ( Lower Low in chart / High Low in RSI ) that was a sign of early buying/increasing.
Now we see that TOTAL is getting out of this WG. First target for bulls in now marked up on TOTAL H4 chart ( Red, 2.83 -2.87 ).
You can use the DXY and TOTAL correlation to chose where to invest your money. Increasing the risks in financial markets ( Like finding new Covid-19 variant ) will cause people to invest in safe assets like GOLD and Bitcoin.
**This is not an investment advice. Your capital might be at risk.**
Give me your idea on comments...
Good Luck...
TotalMarketCap for 2021 CycleTop of the Mornin' !
I was going through all ALTs, checking their potential top levels.
Needed to check if that amount of money to match required marketcaps is possible - and it is ! If it respects the trendlines created so far.
Potential EOY TotalMarketCap could be of $5T, - this sounds crazy to me as we have 1 month left - but that is what the chart shows.
Ofcourse if the Total Market Cap breaks support - run away.
Cheers!
TOTAL | H8 | Technical AnalysisI analyzed the market cap of Crypto in 8 hours. The chart, which has been decreasing since November 10, has received very strong support these days. The important level for us is the "2.660T" level. The graph needs to break this level with high volume. If the breakout occurs, it can go as high as "3.062T".