ALT COINS Made a major bullish break-out above the Falling WedgeThe alt coin market (TOTAL2) broke last week above the Falling Wedge of the Bear Cycle that started in mid 2021. Currently we may be seeing a pull-back that may put the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) and 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) to test as Supports.
On the long-term though, this break-out along with the formation of the Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern, targets much higher and more specifically the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at 1.135T.
Note that it was the 1D MA50 crossing below the 1W MA50 in mid February that confirmed the long-term downtrend and similarly, it will most likely be last month's 1D MA50 crossing over the 1W MA50 that confirms the long-term uptrend/ Bull Cycle.
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TOTAL2
This One Chart is Key for Altcoins!Traders,
It's simple. The Altcoin Market is currently preforming a classic re-test of previous resistance (now support) at the inverse H&S neckline:
- If it holds, Alts are safe for the moment and will continue upwards short term.
- If it breaks, the inverse H&S pattern becomes invalidated and alts have further drawback ahead.
Keep a close eye on this chart.
Stew
Kadena breaking out for a +300% rallyKDA is up around 9% as of this writing and I think this move as a lot more to go. There is some resistance to cleared on the way up, as always, but ultimately I see a big multi-month move to $4.7.
A couple of months ago price action finally broke out of the green "falling wedge" and did a whole lot of sideways as strong hand accumulated. I use quotes for falling wedge because it has a bit to much white space as drawn. The Kadena project looks really promising and interesting so I am not surprised that buyers stepped up.
The indicator analysis is pretty simple. There is a lot of hidden bullish divergence on the weekly chart and I see that as being enough to get us to the 0.5 fib retracement level. We may even get over-performance to around the 0.786 but I shan't be greedy. I will be closing the margin around the 0.5 (4.7) target,
Kadena versus Bitcoin
One reason I foresee a longer term consolidation patter on KDAUSDT is the KDABTC chart. The log MACD is still way below zero on the weekly and there is a lot of resistance at the bold black line as well as the Keltner channels. KDABTC has about 33% to go until it faces the 2 standard deviation Keltner and I expect to see multi-month structure develop to get the price action strong enough to start to curve the channel upward.
No matter what KDAUSDT is doing once KDABTC gets to the top of the 2 std dev Keltner I will have to access if I want to close out my margin to make it available for a btc margin trade.
My entry and trade
I am rather pleased with this entry. I got in two days ago at 1.003
There is a chance that this structure could turn into an ascending triangle and there may be a stall at $1.414 If that is the case then price could return to my entry. If that is the case I will take what profit I can get manually and wait for an entry on the third low of the ascending triangle. This would push out my time table for the move by several months.
I don't want get to repetitive, but things are going to start to get crazy. Total2 is in a rising wedge and a move to the top of the wedge sees the market cap of altcoins hitting all time highs and going over 350%. There is even a chance it pops out of the wedge.
I got into this trade with just my left over equity in my margin account. I hope to close 75% of it at target and the balance is going to go into holdings. Twenty five percent is going to my living and the other 50% is going to be used to continue margin trading.
TOTAL2 Curved Trend The trend that will take us in to the next bull run
This curve is evident since the start of price formation. I have put an extra dotted line to show what it would look like if the curved trend repeated again.
There is a massive difference however in % between the first being (941411%) and the second only being (3500%)
Bullish heading into the third curve up
ALTCOINS are bullish - TOTAL2 with weekly bullish divergencesAltcoin market with a weekly bullish divergence looks bullish overall and we expect the uptrend continuation in the mid-term.
We are not looking for shorts now.
When we get a pullback, it's a buy the dip opportunity.
How deep the pullback can be? The price may retest the key support again but most likely it will create a higher low and confirm its bullishness . Breaking (and closing below) the key support would be an invalidation of this trading idea.
Mini Altseason2023 has started)). Hi dear community and my loyal followers.
Are you waiting for your altcoins to burst and explode?
Do you want to know when mini altseason2023 starts?
Let me update some ideas. As you see BTCD reached to the key weekly resistance zone 48.5-49% and rejected strongly with potential weekly shooting start or bearish pinbar.
At the same time daily BTCD broke down rising wedge with bearish divergence and more likely will retest 44-45K support zone giving room altcoins to explode after long term accumulation phase.
At the same time Total 2 broke weekly descending triangle, retested it successfully, and broke also main diagonal and horizontal resistance.
Weekly candle close above 620 billion is super bullish for altcoins with target 1 and target 2 mentioned on the charts. But Target 2 will be reached only if price clears target 1 and holds it as a support.
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TOTAL2 Elliott Waves Analysis (altcoins)Hello friends.
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Everything on the chart.
Looks like we got upward impulse and correction in form of flat (3-3-5)
Waiting for continuation of growth with main target zone 700-750B.
Cancellation of scenario - 500B
Good luck everyone!
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BTC.D at resistance... time for Alts to shine? BTC.D is clearly at the top of this macro range.
USDT.D is also dropping.
This means we may see a mini alt season as alts follow BTC's recent rally.
One counter-argument is ETH Shanghai update - Lots of staked ETH will be (is?) getting unlocked, which could create a lot of sell pressure.
Some very crypto/finance savvy friends are shorting ETH here.
ETH makes up a huge % of TOTAL2 (altcoin market cap), so if ETH does start selling off, this idea will be invalidated, USDT.D will pump instead, and alts will bleed.
Good luck out there...
Happy trades
CD
When should you trade ALTs? Here's the level to watch:The market cap of Altcoins is currently facing a significant challenge in surpassing the $620 billion benchmark. However, once this level is breached, a notable surge in Altcoin activity is expected. It is worth noting that the current BTC dominance of 47% can be attributed to the fact that the majority of ALTs have broken their BTC-pair support. Consequently, if BTC experiences a downturn, the ALTs will likely be adversely affected since they have limited support!
Therefore, it would be prudent to closely monitor the $620B mark if you are considering trading ALTs. A breach of this level could signal a favorable opportunity to enter the market. Still, it is crucial to stay vigilant and manage your risk accordingly, given the current market dynamics.
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With regards to BTC:
the zone between 29k to 30k is a critically important price range that requires close attention. It has played a pivotal role in differentiating between the bull and bear market. As soon as the price broke below this zone, the market was deemed to have entered a bear market, while staying above it signaled a continuation of the bullish trend .
Currently, the price is once again testing this critical zone, and its behavior here will be a determining factor for the market's future trajectory. A hard rejection from this level could result in a sharp decline in price, while a breakthrough could propel the price upwards to the range of 40k to 47k . Thus, investors and traders alike should closely monitor the price action around this zone to make informed decisions regarding their investments.
But the weakening trend and Fair Value Gap on multiple time frames point towards a downward move!
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BTC dictates the market. If BTC falls, then Alts will drop as well. Trade safe!
TOTAL2The Total 1 index, which indicates the total value of the crypto market, has reached its weekly resistance, as shown in the picture, while the Total 2 index, which indicates the value of the crypto market minus the market value of Bitcoin (i.e. Ethereum and others), has not yet reached its weekly resistance. This is an indication of the survival of altcoins compared to Bitcoin. In the previous analysis, possible scenarios were presented with regard to the dominance of Bitcoin, which should be seen if this survival will be compensated or if the reason for this is simply that the market is less favorable to altcoins compared to Bitcoin. It is also logical
BTC Dominance ready for a strong bounceBTC Dominance is currently sitting on the strong support and seems to be ready for a strong bounce. RSI currently oversold on daily timeframe.
It would make a lot of sense as we still expect alts to drop 50 % which most likely will happen if BTC dominance bounce from this key support.
From another hand, if BTC.D breaks down, we may see an alt season and some really nice gain. However, this scenario in our opinion is less likely . We also expect that ETH merge will be a sell event which may trigger the drop in value for other alts too. Be ready for a bloodbath.
If BTC.D bounces from the key support , we expect it to reach the upper boundary of the range and BTC.D would be at approx. 48 %
Altcoins channel cross⭐️Altcoins channel cross⭐️occurred in November
We are now in the gray accumulation phase
When we see a close above the channel we will be in the pre-bull run phase until the next cross⭐️leads us into the main bull run phase
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Disclaimer:
Not financial advice
Do your own research before investing
The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion